The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Dayganistan]

I can't imagine whatever combat gear they are getting is particularly great or modern if the government can't even provide them with basic things like backpacks and food.

They're absolutely running out of modern equipment. I've seen photos of Russian forces in Ukraine having to use equipment in the desert camo meant to be used by Russian forces in Syria just so they can have modern gear. The conscripts going in are probably going to be equipped with the same load bearing vest and steel helmet their grandpa used in Chechnya or Afghanistan at this point.

[Wallowis]

He purchased a backpack, some foodstuffs, hygiene and stuff. Yes, they are only provided with combat gear (some additionally purchase things like TVD/NVD’s or collimator sights). This fucking sucks.

I remember that back when my brother went to Afghanistan, we bought him candy, toothpaste and magazines (to read, not to shoot), but that was about it. Everything else, the German Army provided.
So yeah, that sucks. I imagine, that these things aren't cheap either?

Who said we supported Russia? I can't speak for Sordhau, but this is a stupid comparison given that I've already acknowledged Russia has failed to do that too. But the hypocrisy of Russia in accusing Ukraine of not respecting self determination does not make the fact that Ukraine is not respecting self determination less true

Small thing, Wallowis: Have you read my post in its context, in particular regarding Sordhau simping for wonderful the USSR was at respecting the self determination of people?
My reply was aimed at her, too, and I know, that Sordhau supports the Disneyland Version of the USSR she thinks it was, but not Russia, she made that clear. I don't know, what you support and quite frankly, I don't really care. Your opinion is your opinion and if you have to shout it from the rooftops, fine by me, I have earplugs (or live far enough away from you, whichever is applicable here).
That being said, I'd really like to know, where the Ukraine is not respecting self-determination... if you say Donetzk and Lukhansk, be ready for me laughing at you.

I think there is a real possibility, (however it is really unknowable since Ukraine hasn't held any referendums), that the people of the Donbass legitimately want independence or to join Russia. In Crimea too, that was given to Ukraine as a gift during the USSR, similarly to how Kaliningrad was offered to Lithuania but Lithuania declined.

[The Two Jerseys]

I can't imagine whatever combat gear they are getting is particularly great or modern if the government can't even provide them with basic things like backpacks and food.

They're absolutely running out of modern equipment. I've seen photos of Russian forces in Ukraine having to use equipment in the desert camo meant to be used by Russian forces in Syria just so they can have modern gear. The conscripts going in are probably going to be equipped with the same load bearing vest and steel helmet their grandpa used in Chechnya or Afghanistan at this point.

Russian conscripts in Ukraine, late 2022.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

I’ve been asking about being eligible for asylum in UK and Germany and immigration officers in both of these countries have confirmed that they’ll take me in if I would receive a mobilization order.

I am repeating my earlier question about anyone living in the UK for whom I can work as a housemaid. Sex not included. Probably.

I'm sorry, but if I've understood your story correctly you won't get asylum. I'm serious: The fact that you have dual citizenship - or at least is a citizen of another country than Russia - precludes you from being given status as a refugee.

You need to be "outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country". Your country of nationality is Cameroon. Since you have no reason to fear being returned to Cameroon, that's where you'll be referred to.

Keep that in mind if you do plan on going elsewhere, so you don't get a rude awakening.

You do understand that I cannot go to Cameroon either because I’m trans, right? Like, the whole thing with Cameroon legally banning transitioning and criminalizing being gay?

[Hrstrovokia]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

[Kalivyah]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

My honest reaction when the Russian military is so bad it has to rely on its special abilities as a crutch

[Vistulange]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

Not really. Outside of a strategic level, where you essentially end the world as we know it, nuclear weapons are unwieldy and difficult to use effectively. Where would you utilise tactical nuclear weapons, where they would be more effective than conventional weapons with large yields?

If we're talking about strategic weapons, yeah, they level the field—to bloody sea level, since we're all dead.

[El Lazaro]

I think there is a real possibility, (however it is really unknowable since Ukraine hasn't held any referendums), that the people of the Donbass legitimately want independence or to join Russia. In Crimea too, that was given to Ukraine as a gift during the USSR, similarly to how Kaliningrad was offered to Lithuania but Lithuania declined.

Ukraine is Ukraine, regardless. If quislings have a problem with that, let them cry about it.

[The Selkie]

I think there is a real possibility, (however it is really unknowable since Ukraine hasn't held any referendums), that the people of the Donbass legitimately want independence or to join Russia. In Crimea too, that was given to Ukraine as a gift during the USSR, similarly to how Kaliningrad was offered to Lithuania but Lithuania declined.

Alright, laugh break is over.
There might be people in the Donbass, who want independence or join Russia, I give you that - but by the same token, there are people, who want Bavarian Independence. However, apparently, since the beginning of the Donbass Conflict in 2014, that was such a non-issue in Ukrainian politics, that no one bothered to make any opinion polls and while there is a party on federal state level advocating for Bavarian Independence, I would not be aware of an equivalent on the side of the Donbass.
The Donbass is not Scotland. There you have a loud movement for independence from the UK, a movement with so much traction, that they are holding a referendum for the third time (I think it was) and a movement, which might win this time around.
Quite on the contrary, at the last point in time a opinion poll in the Donetz Oblast could be taken, in 2014, the Kyiv Institute of Sociology did so. While against Yanukoich (yes, he was still relevant back then) and against people storming administrative buildings, the polling results are quite interesting.
Example, Donetzk: Well over half of the polled people was against joining Russia, 1/6 on the fence. Nearly three quarters of the people we for a customs union with Russia, while only 9.4 percent were for joining the EU. Nearly half of the people said, that Russia rightly protected the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, but nearly two thirds of the people were against Russian troops deploying to the Ukraine. Well over half of the polled people thought a civil war to be possible in the Ukraine. However, their greatest concern was "Raging of banditry in the country." 41.1 percent thought a decentralized unitary republic was the way for the Ukraine's Future, while 38.4 percent thougth, a Federation was the key - that part of the poll did not include an Anschluss-option, though.
So, what do we make of this: A clear majority of the people would have, given the choice, not joined Russia. A very clear majority was against Russian troops in the country (but if they came, over half of the polled people said, that they'd stay at home), despite nearly half of the people saying, that the Russians were right in defending Russian-speaking Ukrainians. 72.5 percent of the people were for joining a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, 9.4 for joining the EU. 15.3 percent of the people were concerned with joining NATO - a statistic outlyer among the regions, in the entire Southeast of the Ukraine, only 9.6 percent of the polled said, that this was their main concern.
A very difficult constellation, which resulted in nearly a fifth of the people seeing civil war as almost a certainty and a further 36.6 percent seeing it as quite likely.
How these polls would look today, we can only guess, though I'd bet, that the result depends on who's holding the questionaire and which flag is on the arm of the guy with the assault rifle nearby.

[Gravlen]

I'm sorry, but if I've understood your story correctly you won't get asylum. I'm serious: The fact that you have dual citizenship - or at least is a citizen of another country than Russia - precludes you from being given status as a refugee.

You need to be "outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country". Your country of nationality is Cameroon. Since you have no reason to fear being returned to Cameroon, that's where you'll be referred to.

Keep that in mind if you do plan on going elsewhere, so you don't get a rude awakening.

You do understand that I cannot go to Cameroon either because I’m trans, right? Like, the whole thing with Cameroon legally banning transitioning and criminalizing being gay?

No, I was not aware. (I suppose I don't read sigs unless pushed? )

That changes the equation, of course. However, you'll have to be prepared to argue your case from both of these standpoints. You would need to get refugee status based on both of these circumstances, because if one fail - the country you'd seek asylum in don't believe you'd be in danger if you were to return to Cameroon, which might actually be the case in the UK, for example - you won't be recognized as a refugee.

The UK has a worrying track record when it comes to granting refugee status based on being transgender (and gay). Very worrying, and it's getting worse. Germany seems a safer option, but other countries such as Sweden might be even more safe. Regardless, choose carefully where you go, because thanks to Dublin you might only have one shot.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Sweden might be even more safe.

Until "Justice Minister" Jimmy Åkesson decides that everybody who immigrated after 1970 needs to be shipped to Kabul.

[The Two Jerseys]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

Not really. Outside of a strategic level, where you essentially end the world as we know it, nuclear weapons are unwieldy and difficult to use effectively. Where would you utilise tactical nuclear weapons, where they would be more effective than conventional weapons with large yields?

If we're talking about strategic weapons, yeah, they level the field—to bloody sea level, since we're all dead.

Plus I doubt Ivan is issuing functional NBC protective gear, so they'll probably kill at least half of their own men...

[Thermodolia]

Putin reportedly giving orders to generals in the field.

That went very well when Nicholas II tired it

[Thermodolia]

I can't imagine whatever combat gear they are getting is particularly great or modern if the government can't even provide them with basic things like backpacks and food.

They try to justify this by saying “bUT the UKrAiNians do it ToO!” despite the fact that Russia is supposedly superior both numerically and quality-wise. Some questions to you: whenever US NG of some states gets activated do they also have to buy some of their own stuff? Hell, they’re even officially advised to purchase things like belts because belts officially issued by the military are often of abysmal quality

Technically you do buy your uniform in the US military but the military hands you the money to do so. But actual gear? No US service members do not do that

[Diarcesia]

Putin reportedly giving orders to generals in the field.

That went very well when Nicholas II tired it

When I saw that I thought Putin will remain leader for at most one or two more years.

[Fractalnavel]

They try to justify this by saying “bUT the UKrAiNians do it ToO!” despite the fact that Russia is supposedly superior both numerically and quality-wise. Some questions to you: whenever US NG of some states gets activated do they also have to buy some of their own stuff? Hell, they’re even officially advised to purchase things like belts because belts officially issued by the military are often of abysmal quality

Technically you do buy your uniform in the US military but the military hands you the money to do so. But actual gear? No US service members do not do that

And they provide the store as well. But doesn't funding/purchase apply to non-combat clothing only?

[Shrillland]

You do understand that I cannot go to Cameroon either because I’m trans, right? Like, the whole thing with Cameroon legally banning transitioning and criminalizing being gay?

No, I was not aware. (I suppose I don't read sigs unless pushed? )

That changes the equation, of course. However, you'll have to be prepared to argue your case from both of these standpoints. You would need to get refugee status based on both of these circumstances, because if one fail - the country you'd seek asylum in don't believe you'd be in danger if you were to return to Cameroon, which might actually be the case in the UK, for example - you won't be recognized as a refugee.

The UK has a worrying track record when it comes to granting refugee status based on being transgender (and gay). Very worrying, and it's getting worse. Germany seems a safer option, but other countries such as Sweden might be even more safe. Regardless, choose carefully where you go, because thanks to Dublin you might only have one shot.

Wouldn't the UK be easy for her to go to anyway since Cameroon's a Commonwealth country? Ditto France with La Francophonie.

[Thermodolia]

Technically you do buy your uniform in the US military but the military hands you the money to do so. But actual gear? No US service members do not do that

And they provide the store as well. But doesn't funding/purchase apply to non-combat clothing only?

Pretty much. They’ll provide everything needed for combat

[Erablegensstan]

Russians who flee after getting mobilization orders will be eligible for asylum in many - not all - European countries.

I’ve been asking about being eligible for asylum in UK and Germany and immigration officers in both of these countries have confirmed that they’ll take me in if I would receive a mobilization order.

I am repeating my earlier question about anyone living in the UK for whom I can work as a housemaid. Sex not included. Probably.

I don't think this is the appropriate place to be soliciting for employment.

[Hrstrovokia]

Plus I doubt Ivan is issuing functional NBC protective gear, so they'll probably kill at least half of their own men...

I really don't think Putin gives a f*ck about his own troops tbh.

[Picairn]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

If Russia wants to use tactical nukes, now is the time. Yet nothing has happened. I'm starting to think that Putin fears MAD and nuclear escalation as much as we do.

[Annihilators of Chan Island]

Russians who flee after getting mobilization orders will be eligible for asylum in many - not all - European countries.

I’ve been asking about being eligible for asylum in UK and Germany and immigration officers in both of these countries have confirmed that they’ll take me in if I would receive a mobilization order.

I am repeating my earlier question about anyone living in the UK for whom I can work as a housemaid. Sex not included. Probably.

Perhaps one of the smaller EU countries might be more lenient to your plight? Luxembourg is generally very immigration friendly, so are the Dutch. Malta's commonwealth too, just like Cameroon, so they might be more sympathetic?

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

If Russia wants to use tactical nukes, now is the time. Yet nothing has happened. I'm starting to think that Putin fears MAD and nuclear escalation as much as we do.

Plus recreating the Fallout world in real life will cause some character with a pipboy to show up to kill him, no doubt.

[Picairn]

Lyman on the verge of being surrounded.

[The Two Jerseys]

Lyman on the verge of being surrounded.

Guarantee they won't hold out for two months like Mariupol did.

[Andsed]

Lyman on the verge of being surrounded.

Guarantee they won't hold out for two months like Mariupol did.

Oh yeah I think like a week is a pretty reasonable guess if not a little generous to the Russians. The garrison in Lyman is fucked.