The Weather Thread- April Showers Bring May Flowers

[Valentine Z]

Today in Singapore, we have reached a warm and toasty temperature of 35.6 C / 96 F, with "Feels like" temperature of 42.0 C / 107.6 F. I'm glad I didn't go for hiking today, and on the upside, the clothes do dry pretty darn quickly.

And then this happened in Hong Kong. I may not complain as much about high humidity in Singapore anymore.

[Nikiznb]

I'm already waiting for a warm spring! I really like sunny and warm weather

[Urine Town]

I'm already waiting for a warm spring! I really like sunny and warm weather

Aren’t we all. The warmth from late February and early March was wonderful, but still a mere tease. I’m waiting for it to warm up and not cool back down to below freezing

[Farnhamia]

I'm already waiting for a warm spring! I really like sunny and warm weather

Aren’t we all. The warmth from late February and early March was wonderful, but still a mere tease. I’m waiting for it to warm up and not cool back down to below freezing

Pffft ... we've had two snowstorms this month at 39.7392°N/104.9849°W.

[Urine Town]

Aren’t we all. The warmth from late February and early March was wonderful, but still a mere tease. I’m waiting for it to warm up and not cool back down to below freezing

Pffft ... we've had two snowstorms this month at 39.7392°N/104.9849°W.

Wow. Didn’t know you lived basically directly west of where I live

[Experina]

There was an heatwave in the past few days.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/isr ... v/historic
It was pretty hot, probably some desert winds and stuff once again, I checked and it looks like it might end today or tomorrow.

[Orifna]

There is a MODERATE risk of severe thunderstorms today. Please check the SPC website when possible, the latest updates are there.

Info from the SPC, on the day 1 outlook:
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley
with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the
Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible
from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for
strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of
Alabama and Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially
result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern
Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South,
including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight.

A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into
a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern
Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the
larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast
during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the
southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel
height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN
Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m
are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic
front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely
advance north due to the digging trough.

...OH Valley...
Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream
short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm
activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN.
This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for
wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into
the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term
details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm
frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today
with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show
an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating
and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate
destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western
envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account
for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise
have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with
discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts.
Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected
with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged
and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes.

Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the
central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic
states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this
activity.

...Southeast this evening/tonight...
Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity,
severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the
leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region.
A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will
favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms.
Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm
evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and
intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary
layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this
evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but
organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will
probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight.
The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be
possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and
the eastern FL Panhandle late.

If you are located in the MODERATE risk zone today, I would advise you cancel any outdoor activities and hunker down in your homes.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage and hail, will be
possible on Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic, with a second severe threat area expected over the
Florida Peninsula.

...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A large upper-level low pressure system will move eastward into the
southern Great Lakes on Wednesday, as a cold front advances quickly
eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will likely be in place across the Carolinas
into southeastern Virginia, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass, weak instability
is expected to develop in most areas during the late morning and
early afternoon. While some convection is expected near the front
early in the period, new surface-based thunderstorms should develop
along and near the moist axis around midday. These storms will
likely move eastward across parts of Maryland, eastern Virginia and
eastern North Carolina. Forecast soundings during the afternoon
along and near the moist axis have extreme deep-layer shear, with
0-6 km shear actually reaching 90 to 100 knots by 21Z. As low-level
lapse rates steepen during the day, convection should be able to mix
the stronger flow down to the surface, creating a potential for wind
damage. The more intense cells could also be associated with an
isolated large hail threat, aided by cold temperatures aloft.

...Florida Peninsula...
Mid-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly across the Gulf
Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. A 100 to
120 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the western
Carolinas, as a cold front advances southward across the northern
Florida Peninsula. The entrance region of the mid-level jet is
forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday
afternoon, strengthening lift and shear across the Florida
Peninsula. As storms organize ahead of the front and move eastward
across the central Florida Peninsula, the strong deep-layer shear
may be enough to support a wind-damage threat with the more intense
cells embedded in the convective line. Any severe threat should be
the greatest during the mid to late afternoon, as low-level lapse
rates become the steepest. A marginal hail threat is also expected.

[Orifna]

Some severe weather in Florida right now. Currently listening to NOAA weather radio on the 162.55000 band. Currently hearing a lot of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and some Tornado Watches.

[Australian rePublic]

So most of the southern portiom of eastern New South Wales is experiencing a rain bomb so dire that it hasn't even been 24 hours since the rain started (it hadn't rained for a while before that). Yesturday, the rain was so heavy that when I was driving through it, I can say that it was harder to see in than it was to see when I drove in snow, and I didn't even have my glasses then! And what made it worse was people who were driving without lights. Keep your headlights on when driving in heavy, or even moderate rain, people! Even if it is day time. It's really hard for people to see you otherwise. I had to call the cops and tell them to use the highway signs to remind people to put their lights on!

[Shearoa]

After a very wet start to the year, it's been a bit of on and off showers and sunshine here the last few weeks (even some snow still in some areas). However, tomorrow is set to be the UK's hottest day of the year for the east of England, potentially reaching up to 21-22 degrees Celsius. Having said that, Storm Kathleen is also set to bring some pretty strong winds and gales during the weekend as well. As for the week ahead, the unsettled spell of weather is set to continue for mid-April at least.

[Corrian]

Apparently there's red flag warning's all over the plains, and Fort Collins recorded a 109 MPH gust. Power companies shut off power to a large chunk of Boulder, CO, and there's wildfires in like every plains state right now. Shits getting weird.

[Reploid Productions]

Apparently there's red flag warning's all over the plains, and Fort Collins recorded a 109 MPH gust. Power companies shut off power to a large chunk of Boulder, CO, and there's wildfires in like every plains state right now. Shits getting weird.

I'd believe it; I think I heard we had 70mph or so when I got into Amarillo this evening. Probably higher; I've handled 70+ gusts without getting knocked over, but I had to seriously fight it to stay on my feet getting out of the car to head inside. The dust storms coming across 40 were just godawful.

[Bayshire]

Glad that Arizona sent our wind to y'all. We went to bed with 65 mph gusts that knocked out our power for a few hours and woke up to 2 inches of snow. Gotta love spring.

[Luminesa]

Severe weather expected to punch its way across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi today with all modes of severe weather possible. Probably will keep Ryan Hall’s broadcast handy in case of tornado warnings in my area. Otherwise a very windy and rainy day as well. School was cancelled all over the area, as well.

[Jerzylvania]

Severe weather expected to punch its way across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi today with all modes of severe weather possible. Probably will keep Ryan Hall’s broadcast handy in case of tornado warnings in my area. Otherwise a very windy and rainy day as well. School was cancelled all over the area, as well.

Be safe today, Lum... and good luck.

[Luminesa]

120,000 outages in the state, probable tornado damage in St. Landry Parish and the Felicianas, flash flood emergencies here and there…it’s gonna be a long night for the power companies, and for the people still waiting for their power to be restored. For some people it’s gonna be a couple days. Mississippi also has a lot of outages, and Alabama’s numbers are climbing as the storm has found its way out of Mississippi.

Everything is still and calm now, I got a day off work and nothing hit on my side of the woods, and now I’m gonna have lunch. Probably won’t be the last time we deal with this load of baloney in the Gulf South this year, but at least it went fast.

[Orifna]

Stormy day today over in FL. Slight risk, likely will see some winds and rain. Nothing out in the atlantic.

[San Lumen]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... le-damage/

Possible tornado hits Louisiana, police describe ‘unbelievable’ damage

catastrophic” damage to the city of Slidell

[San Lumen]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/fla ... -109165665

Flash flooding sweeps into the Pittsburgh area and spurs numerous water rescues

[Orifna]

Went to the beach this morning- was my sister’s birthday. Saw a beautiful Florida sunrise, and then got breakfast at a Huddle House. Went home, with sunny skies and thin clouds all day. Looking good for forecast tomorrow.

In other news, my laptop might be nearing the end of its life. It’s been a workhorse in every aspect online for the past 5 or 6 years- playing games, doing schoolwork, the norm.That thing has seen so much (the integrated camera doesn’t even work lmao), and yet over the years we have never got one virus at all, nor trojan, or worm.
(Well maybe just one, I can clarify.)

This might’ve been on my previous computer, or my current, but it was this browser hijacker that got onto my PC from when I was an idiot. Fortunately, after watching a video or two on WhoTube YouTube when it was still pure and clean, I self resolve and destroyed the browser hijacker.[

I’m estimating that it’s only got a year or two left until it quits for good.
It’ll be a sad time when it goes but it’s starting to get close to new PC time.

In other news,
still nothing in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific but something’s up in the Central Pacific. (Not a typhoon.)


Enhanced risk for Sunday as well. Not gonna put it here right now since it’s really quite late at night.

[Orifna]

NationStates servers have suffered a massive failure (hard drive disk burned out, I believe), but forums remain active so I'll be putting the weather here.

We have an ENHANCED risk over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly
over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More
isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of
northern Arkansas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will
continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and
Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will
overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to
substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the
surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop
east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A
warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with
generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm
sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold
front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central
Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should
stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward
late tonight.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning
from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across
the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist
advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this
convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with
the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more
elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less
unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated
severe threat may persist in the short term with these
thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust
destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a
concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance,
including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor
of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm
front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across
MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep
mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast
side of the upper trough/low.

Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime
heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a
risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and
northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong
enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail
production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the
more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced
boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a
the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado
potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA,
where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong
tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may
also occur.

Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for
severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP
forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least
weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions
displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains
unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level
lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into
parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to
intensify this afternoon/evening.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024

[San Lumen]

https://apnews.com/article/uae-historic ... 64f79bdcb7

The desert nation of UAE records its most rain ever, flooding highways and Dubai’s airport

[Vrbo]

The weather is as it always is in East Tennessee. It's practically summer.

On the bright side, things are starting to bloom. Slowly but surely, the Blue Ridge Parkway will once again be nice to look at.

[Almighty Biden]

So most of the southern portiom of eastern New South Wales is experiencing a rain bomb so dire that it hasn't even been 24 hours since the rain started (it hadn't rained for a while before that). Yesturday, the rain was so heavy that when I was driving through it, I can say that it was harder to see in than it was to see when I drove in snow, and I didn't even have my glasses then! And what made it worse was people who were driving without lights. Keep your headlights on when driving in heavy, or even moderate rain, people! Even if it is day time. It's really hard for people to see you otherwise. I had to call the cops and tell them to use the highway signs to remind people to put their lights on!

Hey the weather's the same in the southern hemisphere for once!

[San Lumen]

https://www.ketv.com/article/nebraska-t ... e/60621455

Large tornado caught on camera crossing interstate in Nebraska

https://www.klkntv.com/three-injured-in ... r-lincoln/

Three injured in tornado near Lincoln