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Russia tests anti-satellite weapon, debris threatens ISS

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Dogmeat
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Postby Dogmeat » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:17 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Dogmeat wrote:


It was nowhere near the ballpark of destroying or seriously damaging the ISS: https://www.space.com/space-station-ast ... ssile-test

...NASA said that during the first three days after the destructive incident, the space station didn't have to perform any space junk-dodging maneuvers. The highest risk of collision has now passed, the agency added.


Claiming that Russia wouldn't simulate potential debris fallout from Russia's own missile test is pretty much the equivalent of comparing Russia to Slytherin or something.

No. Slytherin is somewhat competent. Russia not bothering to think about what could go wrong is very Russia.
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Comerciante
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Postby Comerciante » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:18 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Dogmeat wrote:


It was nowhere near the ballpark of destroying or seriously damaging the ISS: https://www.space.com/space-station-ast ... ssile-test

...NASA said that during the first three days after the destructive incident, the space station didn't have to perform any space junk-dodging maneuvers. The highest risk of collision has now passed, the agency added.


Claiming that Russia wouldn't simulate potential debris fallout from Russia's own missile test is pretty much the equivalent of comparing Russia to Slytherin or something.

The space agency admitted that the Russian act, which generated at least 1,500 trackable fragments and possibly tens of thousands of smaller untrackable pieces, increased the overall space debris risk that the space station is exposed to. Experts say that this increased risk will persist for years.

As someone also pointed out the debris came within 40 km of the space station.

Now on earth 40 km's isn't much but in fucking SPACE. That's a different story entirely. Your own source dictates that the debris just needed to hit one area in such a way the astronauts couldn't fix it they would have to abandon the ISS.
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Shofercia
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Postby Shofercia » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:43 pm

Comerciante wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
It was nowhere near the ballpark of destroying or seriously damaging the ISS: https://www.space.com/space-station-ast ... ssile-test



Claiming that Russia wouldn't simulate potential debris fallout from Russia's own missile test is pretty much the equivalent of comparing Russia to Slytherin or something.

The space agency admitted that the Russian act, which generated at least 1,500 trackable fragments and possibly tens of thousands of smaller untrackable pieces, increased the overall space debris risk that the space station is exposed to. Experts say that this increased risk will persist for years.

As someone also pointed out the debris came within 40 km of the space station.

Now on earth 40 km's isn't much but in fucking SPACE. That's a different story entirely. Your own source dictates that the debris just needed to hit one area in such a way the astronauts couldn't fix it they would have to abandon the ISS.


My source also didn't mention the odds of that. I'd love to see some modeling, rather than merely opinionated posts. My source contained one fact, and that's all I quoted.


Dogmeat wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
It was nowhere near the ballpark of destroying or seriously damaging the ISS: https://www.space.com/space-station-ast ... ssile-test



Claiming that Russia wouldn't simulate potential debris fallout from Russia's own missile test is pretty much the equivalent of comparing Russia to Slytherin or something.

No. Slytherin is somewhat competent. Russia not bothering to think about what could go wrong is very Russia.


Russia did think of what could go wrong. That's why the only thing that went wrong, was the astronauts/cosmonauts being forced to shelter in the space station. You seriously think that no one modeled potential ISS impact prior to the ASAT launch?
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Postby Neanderthaland » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:16 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Comerciante wrote:
As someone also pointed out the debris came within 40 km of the space station.

Now on earth 40 km's isn't much but in fucking SPACE. That's a different story entirely. Your own source dictates that the debris just needed to hit one area in such a way the astronauts couldn't fix it they would have to abandon the ISS.


My source also didn't mention the odds of that. I'd love to see some modeling, rather than merely opinionated posts. My source contained one fact, and that's all I quoted.


Dogmeat wrote:No. Slytherin is somewhat competent. Russia not bothering to think about what could go wrong is very Russia.


Russia did think of what could go wrong. That's why the only thing that went wrong, was the astronauts/cosmonauts being forced to shelter in the space station. You seriously think that no one modeled potential ISS impact prior to the ASAT launch?

Realistically? That is disturbingly plausible.

If "the only thing that went wrong" is that you almost hit the International Space Station, then things have gone pretty fucking wrong.
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Postby Shofercia » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:18 pm

Neanderthaland wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
My source also didn't mention the odds of that. I'd love to see some modeling, rather than merely opinionated posts. My source contained one fact, and that's all I quoted.




Russia did think of what could go wrong. That's why the only thing that went wrong, was the astronauts/cosmonauts being forced to shelter in the space station. You seriously think that no one modeled potential ISS impact prior to the ASAT launch?

Realistically? That is disturbingly plausible.

If "the only thing that went wrong" is that you almost hit the International Space Station, then things have gone pretty fucking wrong.


It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?
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Postby Markevia » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:22 pm

Resilient Acceleration wrote:It was so bad that emergency was declared and the crew were ordered to seek shelter. The ISS' orbit was also forcibly altered to avoid total disaster. And yes, there are Russian cosmonauts on the ISS.
Russia has conducted an antisatellite weapons test. The resulting debris field has forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter while the debris flies by in orbit.

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/15/10559366 ... astronauts


NPR is delusional, someone take them to the infirmary.

How do they get "space debris" from feedwater leaking from a blown tank?

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Postby Bhanam » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:23 pm

If Russia keeps doing this it will cause trouble

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Postby Neanderthaland » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:39 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neanderthaland wrote:Realistically? That is disturbingly plausible.

If "the only thing that went wrong" is that you almost hit the International Space Station, then things have gone pretty fucking wrong.


It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?

Within 40 Kilometers. In orbital terms, that's nothing.

EDIT: Just for clarification. The ISS travels almost exactly 1000 miles in the time it takes to sing:
And I would walk 500 miles
And I would walk 500 more


That's 1609.34 km. So missing by 40 km is missing by less than 1 second. You haven't even finished saying the first And in 40 km.
Last edited by Neanderthaland on Sat Nov 20, 2021 6:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Stellar Colonies » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:55 pm

Markevia wrote:
Resilient Acceleration wrote:It was so bad that emergency was declared and the crew were ordered to seek shelter. The ISS' orbit was also forcibly altered to avoid total disaster. And yes, there are Russian cosmonauts on the ISS.


NPR is delusional, someone take them to the infirmary.

How do they get "space debris" from feedwater leaking from a blown tank?

At the speeds that objects move in relation to each other in Earth orbit, even a small fragment of pretty much any material is a dangerous collision threat.
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Postby Hispida » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:56 pm

Stellar Colonies wrote:
Markevia wrote:
NPR is delusional, someone take them to the infirmary.

How do they get "space debris" from feedwater leaking from a blown tank?

At the speeds that objects move in relation to each other in Earth orbit, even a small fragment of pretty much any material is a dangerous collision threat.

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Postby Comerciante » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:58 pm

Stellar Colonies wrote:
Markevia wrote:
NPR is delusional, someone take them to the infirmary.

How do they get "space debris" from feedwater leaking from a blown tank?

At the speeds that objects move in relation to each other in Earth orbit, even a small fragment of pretty much any material is a dangerous collision threat.

40 km's Not Great, Not Terrible.
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Postby Markevia » Sat Nov 20, 2021 3:15 pm

Comerciante wrote:
Stellar Colonies wrote:At the speeds that objects move in relation to each other in Earth orbit, even a small fragment of pretty much any material is a dangerous collision threat.

40 km's Not Great, Not Terrible.

I've seen worse.

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Postby New haven america » Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:39 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neanderthaland wrote:Realistically? That is disturbingly plausible.

If "the only thing that went wrong" is that you almost hit the International Space Station, then things have gone pretty fucking wrong.


It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?

Shof, you're the only person in this thread defending Russia. Like, even Laka gave up, and they actually live in Russia IIRC.

Get over your need to defend Putin at all times and admit that Russia's not the innocent party that you want it to be in this case.
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Postby Dazchan » Sat Nov 20, 2021 6:05 pm

Rusozak wrote:Why would they intentionally put their own station and cosmonauts at risk?


That's literally the entire history of the Russian/Soviet space program in a single sentence.
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Postby Ifreann » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:40 am

Dazchan wrote:
Rusozak wrote:Why would they intentionally put their own station and cosmonauts at risk?


That's literally the entire history of the Russian/Soviet space program in a single sentence.

Four Soviet cosmonauts have died during spaceflights: the three man crew of Soyuz 11(the only three people to actually die in space) and the pilot of Soyuz 1. Since that Soyuz 11 accident in 1971, no other cosmonauts have died during spaceflights. Fifteen astronauts, thirteen Americans, one Indian-American, and one Israeli, have died during spaceflights: the pilot of X-15 flight 191(who was posthumously awarded astronaut wings as that flight passed an altitude of 50 miles), the seven person crew of the space shuttle Challenger, and the seven person crew of the space shuttle Columbia. Two cosmonauts, one Soviet and one Russian, have died in spaceflight related training accidents. Nine astronauts, all American, have died in spaceflight related training accidents.
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Postby Fartsniffage » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:51 am

Shofercia wrote:
Neanderthaland wrote:Realistically? That is disturbingly plausible.

If "the only thing that went wrong" is that you almost hit the International Space Station, then things have gone pretty fucking wrong.


It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?


It's so standard that it has happened a whole 5 times since the ISS was launched in 1998. Usually if there is a risk they would fiddle with the orbit so the risk goes away, but the Russians gave no notice that they going to blow up a satellite so they didn't have the opportunity.

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Postby Shofercia » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:04 am

New haven america wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?

Shof, you're the only person in this thread defending Russia. Like, even Laka gave up, and they actually live in Russia IIRC.

Get over your need to defend Putin at all times and admit that Russia's not the innocent party that you want it to be in this case.


First, I've criticized Russia several times, including on the First Chechen War and Gay Rights. Second, I'm not saying that any party that tests ASATs is innocent or guilty. I'm just saying that they tested ASATs. Some people believe that missile tests are wrong, others believe that they're right. Was blasting Bikini right or wrong at the time it was blasted? Was testing Tsar Bomba right or wrong at the time it was blasted? It's not as easy to determine guilt or innocence from that, so I'm not saying that a party's either guilty or innocent. This ain't the Kyle Rittenhouse case, where self-defense is clearly self-defense.
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Postby Shofercia » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:29 am

Fartsniffage wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?


It's so standard that it has happened a whole 5 times since the ISS was launched in 1998. Usually if there is a risk they would fiddle with the orbit so the risk goes away, but the Russians gave no notice that they going to blow up a satellite so they didn't have the opportunity.


You can have standard procedures for rare events. For instance, it's standard procedure for World Cup Champions to hoist the World Cup, and the fact that it only happens once in four years, doesn't make it any less of a standard procedure. It's standard procedure for Greece's Olympic Team to march first, and claiming that it happened less than 50 times in the past century, doesn't make it any less of standard procedure. So yes, if there's very little time to respond to the first sign of danger, the astronauts/cosmonauts shelter in place, at the first sign of danger, and then figure out the risk.


Neanderthaland wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
It's standard procedure for astronauts/cosmonauts to shelter at any sign of danger, however negligible. That's not the same standard as "almost"

If there are 100 swimmers, and I come in 2nd, I can say that I almost won. If I come in 99th, I can say that my chances of winning were negligible. See the difference?

Within 40 Kilometers. In orbital terms, that's nothing.

EDIT: Just for clarification. The ISS travels almost exactly 1000 miles in the time it takes to sing:
And I would walk 500 miles
And I would walk 500 more


That's 1609.34 km. So missing by 40 km is missing by less than 1 second. You haven't even finished saying the first And in 40 km.


You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point. Yes, things happen very quickly when we're talking about the destructive power of missiles, but if the Iron Dome's missiles missed all of the Palestinian Rockets in any reasonably given time period by a mere second, guess who'd be out of a job? At least one missile commander in Israel. So yes, things happen fast with missiles. Very fast. But the odds of said debris actually hitting the ISS were negligible, which was my point. Was it a dick thing to do? Possibly, and I've already said that.
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Postby Fartsniffage » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:28 am

Shofercia wrote:You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point.


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Postby Neanderthaland » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:26 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neanderthaland wrote:Within 40 Kilometers. In orbital terms, that's nothing.

EDIT: Just for clarification. The ISS travels almost exactly 1000 miles in the time it takes to sing:
And I would walk 500 miles
And I would walk 500 more


That's 1609.34 km. So missing by 40 km is missing by less than 1 second. You haven't even finished saying the first And in 40 km.


You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point. Yes, things happen very quickly when we're talking about the destructive power of missiles, but if the Iron Dome's missiles missed all of the Palestinian Rockets in any reasonably given time period by a mere second, guess who'd be out of a job? At least one missile commander in Israel. So yes, things happen fast with missiles. Very fast. But the odds of said debris actually hitting the ISS were negligible, which was my point. Was it a dick thing to do? Possibly, and I've already said that.

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.
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Postby New haven america » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:28 pm

Neanderthaland wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point. Yes, things happen very quickly when we're talking about the destructive power of missiles, but if the Iron Dome's missiles missed all of the Palestinian Rockets in any reasonably given time period by a mere second, guess who'd be out of a job? At least one missile commander in Israel. So yes, things happen fast with missiles. Very fast. But the odds of said debris actually hitting the ISS were negligible, which was my point. Was it a dick thing to do? Possibly, and I've already said that.

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

But actually doing the math and taking into consideration how differently things work in space would mean that Russia possibly did something bad.

And we can't have that happen now, can we?
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Postby FNU » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:30 pm

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Postby Saiwania » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:43 pm

We need to assume that there will continue to be debris and crowding in space near our planet. Its time to invest some R&D into space vessels which can begin efforts to capture the garbage floating in orbit to bring it back to Earth or repurposed.

Coruscant is more or less the far future of our planet if it were or becomes possible to completely solve global warming, if people became masters of micromanaging the entire planet's atmosphere and ratio of greenhouse gases. To the extent that is possible, we should aspire to cover the entire planet in one big city. That is the true pinnacle of development and progress.
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Postby Albrenia » Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:54 pm

Kessler Syndrome is really something people should get to work on stopping, lest we be bound by the traces of our own hubris.

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Postby Valentine Z » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:03 pm

Here we have the most advanced of technology for mankind, and we are using it for evil. Or something along that line, heh.

What I'm saying is that it's only a matter of time before we have a death ray or something up there in the sky, perfect for a Bond villain.
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Issues Thread 4th in Gen Sec Photography Stuff Project: Save F7. Stats Analysis

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Q & A Here! | Heights of NS! | F7 Etiquette

Clarissa mistaken for Smurf/Avatar: 14
Valentijn Misgendered: 59
Valentijn now a She!

• Never trouble trouble until trouble troubles you.
• As a wise man once said: 我等は砲兵 皇国の護り (We are Artillery Guardians of the Empire).
• World Map is a cat playing with Australia.

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