2020 US General Election Thread X: For Those About to Vote

[Zurkerx]

If Ernst loses Biden likely wins Iowa.

Not necessarily: Roy Cooper won by the slimmest of margins in 2016 in NC, a State Trump carried by about 3 points. So, I wouldn't be surprised if say Greenfield wins but Trump also wins too. Same for Arizona: I wouldn't be surprised that Mark Kelly wins but so does Trump.

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

I'm very interested in that. I am quite sure about every state, and expect to win. Is the prize really a lifetime appointment to Mod? That's incredible! It would be good if you could repost that. Very excited, eyeballs a bit jerky so I want to be sure!

Nope, but you do get a gold medal for winning bigly.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Many Biden, Democrat supporters on NS to whatever extent, call me Politically Stupid, directly and indirectly, lol

GMS.

Hey at least they have a reason to oppose you, you're literally supporting their opponent.

The rest of us aren't so lucky.

And they are literally opposing my Republican President.

So it is logical for them to call me Politically Stupid for my views and posts, but I don't call them Politically Stupid for their views and posts.

I respect their rights to their views and posts, I strongly disagree with.

They do not respect my rights to my views and posts, they strongly disagree with.

And of my fellow Republican Trump supporters.

I Rest My Case, lol.

GMS.

[Zurkerx]

me trying to read any spreadsheets

Its pretty good though, well done.

Thank you! It was quite a lot of work.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I'm very interested in that. I am quite sure about every state, and expect to win. Is the prize really a lifetime appointment to Mod? That's incredible! It would be good if you could repost that. Very excited, eyeballs a bit jerky so I want to be sure!

I think you would make an excellent Fair and Balanced Mod. You have my vote.

GMS.

It's a competition so you can't vote. You could wish me luck

I think I'd be a good mod 90% of the time. It's that other 10%. I don't know what happens. I mean literally. One minute I'm sipping a cup of tea then I'm standing in front of the toilet and my hat is in there, then I realize it's not my house and I will never know what happened in the last hour. Other than that I'd be a great mod!

[United Hemand Insia]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Jo Jorgensen is a fellow Washingtonian, correct?

[San Lumen]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Jo Jorgensen is a fellow Washingtonian, correct?

she was born and raised in Illinois and now lives in South Carolina.

[United Hemand Insia]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Jo Jorgensen is a fellow Washingtonian, correct?

she was born and raised in Illinois and now lives in South Carolina.

Oh, okay.

[Corrian]

Neat. That is actually a pretty good campaign idea. Surprised more politicians have not been using streaming to campaign

Because it would tend to come across as forced and overly manufactured. I, for instance, wouldn't believe that Hillary Clinton just spontaneously had the idea to stream Among Us. AOC can get away with it because she's significantly younger than most other politicians in the national spotlight, not significantly older than most streamers herself.

Though adapting to modern media is a good political move regardless, which is why politicians use Twitter more now. It's like the modern radio!

I think my soul died at the idea of Twitter as modern radio.

[Valrifell]

Because it would tend to come across as forced and overly manufactured. I, for instance, wouldn't believe that Hillary Clinton just spontaneously had the idea to stream Among Us. AOC can get away with it because she's significantly younger than most other politicians in the national spotlight, not significantly older than most streamers herself.

Though adapting to modern media is a good political move regardless, which is why politicians use Twitter more now. It's like the modern radio!

I think my soul died at the idea of Twitter as modern radio.

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

[Rusozak]

I think my soul died at the idea of Twitter as modern radio.

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

"Remember the Depression is Hoover's fault, not mine. He was a failure. SAD. But I will be fantastic. My response will be the best response in history. And then it's all going to go away, just poof!" ~ FDR probably

[San Lumen]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/71077 ... 010-losses

A great rundown of state legislative chambers in play for democrats. Minnesota senate, Arizona legislature and Michigan house arent surprising but they have Texas and Pennsylvania house along with Iowa house on the list. Most surprising is the Georgia house.

[Greater Miami Shores]

GMS: I just report the news, if this is true I say Awesome, I don't have any problems with gays, like Kannap and Therm, I use them as an example because they are the 2 most well known gays on NS, and anti Trump.

A few Excerpts:
Chadwick Moore, editor-in-chief of OUTspoken, described President Donald Trump as “the most pro-gay president” in American history, offering his remarks on Tuesday’s edition of SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Daily with host Alex Marlow.

OUTspoken characterizes its mission as offering a voice for LGBT conservatives in contrast with left-wing orthodoxies held by the “mainstream media” and “intersectional-left”:

According to Chadwick Moore, not me, his words not mine:
“A lot of people I know and a lot of people affiliated with OUTspoken [view Trump] as the most pro-gay [president],” Moore said. “[He] wants to be hands-off and let you live your life. He does not want to take away any of your rights [and] doesn’t want to give you special rights. He’s the first president to assume office being in support of gay marriage.”
Marlow recalled, “Obama was against gay marriage in both elections.”

Moore remarked on Joe Biden’s, Hillary Clinton’s, and Barack Obama’s prior opposition to same-sex marriage while highlighting Trump’s meritocratic ethos as a business owner.

Direct Link:
https://soundcloud.com/breitbart/chadwi ... er-20-2020

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/10 ... president/

[Zurkerx]

Oh, also, new poll out of Monmouth (A+ Rated) for Iowa: Biden leads Trump in a high turnout scenario, 50% to 47%. Interestingly enough, in a lower turnout scenario, Biden leads 51% to 46% (more on that in second).

In the Senate Race, Greenfield leads Ernst in a high turnout scenario, 49% to 47%. In a lower turnout scenario, Greenfield lead widens to 51% with Ernst at 45%.

The reason why for the lower scenario showing Biden with a bigger lead? Republicans. They're assuming that if Republicans don't turnout in big numbers on election day (that seems unlikely) then Democrats, which lead big in early voting, will win.

Of course, we need to see a few more high-rated polls before making an conclusions but if they show Biden leading in Iowa slimly, that could be bad news for Trump. On the other hand, if it's a tie to Trump slightly leading, Trump will win, albeit by a slim margin.

We got another A+ Rated Poll, this one from the NYT: Biden leads Trump in Iowa 46% to 43%. However, Greenfield trails Ernst by one point: Ernst leads with 45% to Greenfield's 44%. It seems Iowa will be a lot closer this time around.

The reason Biden is doing better? His advantages with women, college educated, young voters, and the big one being old voters- the same that Monmouth shows. If Biden continues to perform well with older voters, he'll likely win in States that Trump should otherwise have won easily.

Then there's also that soy bean question that hurt Ernst. God damn, she really shot herself in the foot on that one.

[Gravlen]

Prominent Republican Pollster Frank Luntz blasts the Trump Campaign, claiming it's the worst he's ever seen.

He went on to say this:

“I’ve never seen a campaign more mis-calibrated than the Trump campaign. Frankly, his staff ought to be brought up on charges of political malpractice,” Luntz said.

“It is the worst campaign I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching them since 1980. They’re on the wrong issues. They’re on the wrong message. They’ve got their heads up their assess. … Your damn job is to get your candidate to talk about things that are relevant to the people you need to reach. And if you can’t do your damn job then get out.”

What's he upset about? That would be Trump's focus on Hunter Biden, which clearly has no relevance to the average American, and the fact that 50 former intelligence officials warn that the NY Post story sounds like Russian disinformation. This is especially true on Trump demanding AG Barr to open an investigation into Trump. That is after two investigations, the unmasking of Americans and Durhams have either concluded or won't be ready. That has put Barr in the doghouse, to which, if Trump were to win re-election, wouldn't comment on finding a different AG, one that would likely abuse their power to lock up Trump's opponents.

This is interesting, and a bit scary, because it's saying something about the devotion of Trump fans. Even if Trump is running the worst campaign Luntz have ever seen, Trump is still competitive. Running out of cash, focusing on the wrong things, acting unpresidential in a manner which would have disqualified most other people, giving bad answers and worse speeches - his core don't budge, and he's not turning off all of the undecided.

Imagine if he had run a good campaign. Imagine if he wins despite this shitshow.

[San Lumen]

https://www.kmov.com/news/on-the-ballot ... f02d2.html

St. Louis will be voting on whether to adopt a top two primary system. The two winners would go on to the general election. This is a stupid idea and I hope it fails.

Florida will be voting on a similar measure and polling is showing a narrow majority against it.

[Shrillland]

https://www.kmov.com/news/on-the-ballot-residency-requirement-and-a-change-in-how-st-louisans-vote/article_d271a91c-0dbf-11eb-959f-0bf583af02d2.html

St. Louis will be voting on whether to adopt a top two primary system. The two winners would go on to the general election. This is a stupid idea and I hope it fails.

Florida will be voting on a similar measure and polling is showing a narrow majority against it.

Erm..where is your polling coming from? The Monmouth University poll from last month had Amendment 3 at 63% for it.

[San Lumen]

https://www.kmov.com/news/on-the-ballot-residency-requirement-and-a-change-in-how-st-louisans-vote/article_d271a91c-0dbf-11eb-959f-0bf583af02d2.html

St. Louis will be voting on whether to adopt a top two primary system. The two winners would go on to the general election. This is a stupid idea and I hope it fails.

Florida will be voting on a similar measure and polling is showing a narrow majority against it.

Erm..where is your polling coming from? The Monmouth University poll from last month had Amendment 3 at 63% for it.

I saw one from civigs on our campaigns taken last week that showed 51 percent against.

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail ... eID=917563

[The Black Forrest]

I think my soul died at the idea of Twitter as modern radio.

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

Did he call them fireside chats or suggest they could have been?

If he says they are the same, he is a simpleton.

Trump could have created a new fireside chat with twitter. He would have been a genius. The problem? FDR spoke well. FDR projected leadership. FDR projected empathy. My grandmother said you listened to him and you felt things would get better.

Trump can’t do that......well only his followers would believe it as they will believe anything he says......

[Major-Tom]

Okay, I am please to tell for everyone's enjoyment (and horror) in this thread that I and others have made a basic 2020 Election Model to try to predict the winner of the 2020 Election.

So, I am pleased to announce the Model: NationStates' Worst Nightmare: Totally Inaccurate Predictions

Before I explain more, I do want to give credit to all those that helped, even if it was small: The Cosmic Mainframe, Nakena, The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp, Thermodolia, Major-Tom, Idzequitch, United States of Devonta, & Valrifell.

So, the Model. Given we are amateurs, I want to make clear that we don't have the fancy algorithm (COVID-19, Supreme Court, Economy, etc.) like 538 has and thus, this is a simplistic model for entertaining purposes: it shouldn't be fully seen as a serious projection given the lack of tools we have to make such a Model. Everyone that contributed may not agree with all the outcomes in each State and thus, they are more than welcome to published their own 270 Maps to State what their outcome will be. That said, we did use numbers from 538 (more on that in a bit) so I wish to cite them as a source for this valuable information. We relied on numbers from ElectProject to get us an estimated Voting-Elidable Population (VEP). We'll also be adjusting these numbers until Election Day which stops on the third.

Now, you're wondering "Zurk, how does it all work?" Well, for starters, we took polls that were on 538's site and inputted the data into each respective State, giving us an average of polls. But not just any polls: we decided to use polls that were only B/C Rated or Higher to ensure that the Model would have polling that more accurately reflects the outcome. For instance, Alabama's numbers are currently these based on polling: Trump leads Biden 54.86% to 39.00%. That leaves 6.14% undecided/third parties. Given this is an important election, we then take 40% each of that undecided number and assigned to Trump and Biden. Now it shows Trump leading 57.31% to 41.46%, leaving us with 1.23% third parties.

But that's not the final result. That's where 538's numbers come in, which we routinely have to update given they change. Currently, 538 has Trump winning Alabama 59.10% to Biden's 40.10%. So, we take 50% (or average) of both numbers to give us the final results: Trump will win Alabama with 58.21% to Biden's 40.78%. So, our numbers are respectfully between 538's and our original adjustment. Seems easy enough to understand, I hope.

We also have some key Senate races too, including South Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Georgia, and Colorado- calculated the same way. As it stands, Biden is projected to win the Presidency with at least 330 Electoral Votes based on the Model; the Senate is looking to be at least 51-49. Thus, so far, Democrats are projected to win overall this election cycle. However, as I've stated, we'll continually continue adjusting the numbers; inputting new polls and updating 538's projected vote share until November 3rd, where we will officially declare, based on the Model, on how the election will go. Based on the high turnout for early voting thus far (it's at 39.9 million right now), we are projecting 148,227,862 people will vote this upcoming election, which is about 12 million more people than in 2016.

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

Damn worker bees...

I will say, I contributed only marginally, hail spreadsheet god Zurk.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

Did he call them fireside chats or suggest they could have been?

If he says they are the same, he is a simpleton.

Trump could have created a new fireside chat with twitter. He would have been a genius. The problem? FDR spoke well. FDR projected leadership. FDR projected empathy. My grandmother said you listened to him and you felt things would get better.

Trump can’t do that......well only his followers would believe it as they will believe anything he says......

I love your Trump Idea, too bad I did not think of it before, I would have suggested it to Republican President Trump a long time ago.

Like Republican President Ronald Reagan, The Great Communicator.

GMS.

[San Lumen]

https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/releas ... aseID=3680
Red Alert!!!


New Quinnipiac poll: TEXAS: Biden 47%, Trump 47%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 43%

TEXAS SENATE: Cornyn 49%, Hegar 43%

[Valrifell]

Damn worker bees...

I will say, I contributed only marginally, hail spreadsheet god Zurk.

Praise the spreadsheet \o/

[Valrifell]

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

Did he call them fireside chats or suggest they could have been?

If he says they are the same, he is a simpleton.

Trump could have created a new fireside chat with twitter. He would have been a genius. The problem? FDR spoke well. FDR projected leadership. FDR projected empathy. My grandmother said you listened to him and you felt things would get better.

Trump can’t do that......well only his followers would believe it as they will believe anything he says......

Yes, the point she was making was more about using new media to connect with voters. Trump could have used Twitter in a similar way that FDR used radio, to interact and connect with voters to explain his policy in a more nuanced way.

Instead we got... this.

[Heloin]

Look, in 2016 my old AP US History teacher made a casual remark that Trump's tweets were kind of like FDR's fireside chats.

It gets worse, is what I'm saying.

Did he call them fireside chats or suggest they could have been?

If he says they are the same, he is a simpleton.

Trump could have created a new fireside chat with twitter. He would have been a genius. The problem? FDR spoke well. FDR projected leadership. FDR projected empathy. My grandmother said you listened to him and you felt things would get better.

Trump can’t do that......well only his followers would believe it as they will believe anything he says......

You know that one fireside chat when FDR started explaining about press covfefe. One of Roosevelts greatest speeches, still brings a tear to the eye.

[San Lumen]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/522 ... n-election

Mitt Rommey says he did not vote for Trump.