Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Great Betrayal

[Rio Cana]

In the longrun, insurgency did not work the last time.

Read this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_ ... us_Armenia

[Novus America]

Oh, I know. I just also don't understand why at a certain point, you wouldn't just... leave, or at least give up on trying to control stuff outside your borders. The Russians seem willing to protect them from outright invasion at least, at a certain point when you're the size of Armenia facing down the Turkish colossus you should maybe question if this isn't a futile endeavor and it might not be a better idea to hunker down and stock up on Russian missiles until some part of the equation changes.

Frankly because there's no insurance Russia will help them if it's willing to adhere to unjust laws not to involve itself in Artsakh already. As nobody really came to their aid against a genocidal enemy that has repeatedly called for their extermination simply because a land historically and demographically Armenian was unilaterally "granted" to Baku, there is no guarantee anyone will when Turks come to just, you know, finish the job. After all, it is just some fool thing in the Caucasus, what's more important? Some Armenians who can cut their losses and just, go live somewhere else (or more accurately be killed by a genocidal enemy) or avoiding WWIII?

Of course nobody can trust Russia, (it is foolish to trust any other country completely and Putin will gladly toss you under you the bus for some other gain) but they have no choice. Sure it is not certain Russia will uphold the CSTO but it is likely they would, as accommodating towards Turkey Putin often is still there is a point to far were Russia would have to be respond or be shown to be a complete paper tiger. Russia cares enough about its image that it would very likely respond to an attack on what remains of Armenia in its rump state but internationally recognized borders.

But I am sure many more Armenians will flee, many already have. Armenia is a dying country.

But still many people will want to hold out as long as they can. Some people care more about their country than their life, or else it would not exist. If everyone fled when the going got tough, few countries would last long.

[Senkaku]

Frankly because there's no insurance Russia will help them if it's willing to adhere to unjust laws not to involve itself in Artsakh already. As nobody really came to their aid against a genocidal enemy that has repeatedly called for their extermination simply because a land historically and demographically Armenian was unilaterally "granted" to Baku, there is no guarantee anyone will when Turks come to just, you know, finish the job. After all, it is just some fool thing in the Caucasus, what's more important? Some Armenians who can cut their losses and just, go live somewhere else (or more accurately be killed by a genocidal enemy) or avoiding WWIII?

Of course nobody can trust Russia, (it is foolish to trust any other country completely and Putin will gladly toss you under you the bus for some other gain) but they have no choice. Sure it is not certain Russia will uphold the CSTO but it is likely they would, as accommodating towards Turkey Putin often is still there is a point to far were Russia would have to be respond or be shown to be a complete paper tiger. Russia cares enough about its image that it would very likely respond to an attack on what remains of Armenia in its rump state but internationally recognized borders.

But I am sure many more Armenians will flee, many already have. Armenia is a dying country.

But still many people will want to hold out as long as they can. Some people care more about their country than their life, or else it would not exist. If everyone fled when the going got tough, few countries would last long.

Maybe they can get Putin to send some totally volunteer emigrant settlers and Kaliningrad/Crimea themselves. Probably a better option than getting ground down and thrown into history's graveyard of nations by the Turks over the next century

Maybe they should've considered this before they overextended themselves in the last war-- it's not like no one knew Azerbaijan had oil money and an affinity with the Turks. Now they're up shit creek without a paddle, and have to be dependent on the warmth and kindness of Moscow to survive or hope to hold any of their remaining territory in the disputed area? I mean jesus

[Novus America]

You expect any country to adhere to the "spirit" of an international defense treaty, rather than just the actual letter of the treaty agreement, when deciding whether or not go to war...? You do realize negotiations on that type of thing take so long because you have to expect people will only adhere to the letter of it, not the "spirit," right? That's... basically why diplomatic corps exist...

I thought the Diplomatic Corps existed to sabotage international interest and betray our allies or is that just a State Department matter? :^)

The diplomatic corps is part of the State Department.
But yes they have been a complete disaster since the 90s at least.

[Senkaku]

You expect any country to adhere to the "spirit" of an international defense treaty, rather than just the actual letter of the treaty agreement, when deciding whether or not go to war...? You do realize negotiations on that type of thing take so long because you have to expect people will only adhere to the letter of it, not the "spirit," right? That's... basically why diplomatic corps exist...

I thought the Diplomatic Corps existed to sabotage international interest and betray our allies or is that just a State Department matter? :^)

Negotiating treaties with mealy-mouthed clauses so we don't necessarily have to do anything we don't want to (here's looking at you, Chiang), stamping visas and helping hungover college kids who lost their passports during their summer hiking through the remote mountains of wherever, and running cover for the CIA are all perfectly valid functions of government

[Novus America]

BBC has a map of how the peace treaty will supposedly be implemented

Fuck. That map is absolutely vile.

Others I have seen look at worse, many assessments have Azerbaijan having almost the entire southern 1/3rd, they probably control a wider area towards Shushi/Shusha than that map shows.
But yes, the Armenian areas are now completely indefensible without Russia protecting them. Which is what Putin is happy with.

Russia wins, Azerbaijan wins, Turkey wins. Armenians get fucked by all three. But that has been the way of history for a century at least now.

Armenia is a sad case, a small, land locked country surrounded by powers who view might as making right.

They are a pug surrounded by hungry pit bulls.

[Vapormancer]

I thought the Diplomatic Corps existed to sabotage international interest and betray our allies or is that just a State Department matter? :^)

Negotiating treaties with mealy-mouthed clauses so we don't necessarily have to do anything we don't want to (here's looking at you, Chiang), stamping visas and helping hungover college kids who lost their passports during their summer hiking through the remote mountains of wherever, and running cover for the CIA are all perfectly valid functions of government

Very lame and not useful pilled. Just fire them and leave all negotiations to Attila the Hun.

I thought the Diplomatic Corps existed to sabotage international interest and betray our allies or is that just a State Department matter? :^)

The diplomatic corps is part of the State Department.

The operative joke there is I was questing if it was just the diplomats in general who betray us as a matter of course or if the State Department had treason in its remit for the department as a whole!

[Novus America]

Of course nobody can trust Russia, (it is foolish to trust any other country completely and Putin will gladly toss you under you the bus for some other gain) but they have no choice. Sure it is not certain Russia will uphold the CSTO but it is likely they would, as accommodating towards Turkey Putin often is still there is a point to far were Russia would have to be respond or be shown to be a complete paper tiger. Russia cares enough about its image that it would very likely respond to an attack on what remains of Armenia in its rump state but internationally recognized borders.

But I am sure many more Armenians will flee, many already have. Armenia is a dying country.

But still many people will want to hold out as long as they can. Some people care more about their country than their life, or else it would not exist. If everyone fled when the going got tough, few countries would last long.

Maybe they can get Putin to send some totally volunteer emigrant settlers and Kaliningrad/Crimea themselves. Probably a better option than getting ground down and thrown into history's graveyard of nations by the Turks over the next century

Maybe they should've considered this before they overextended themselves in the last war-- it's not like no one knew Azerbaijan had oil money and an affinity with the Turks. Now they're up shit creek without a paddle, and have to be dependent on the warmth and kindness of Moscow to survive or hope to hold any of their remaining territory in the disputed area? I mean jesus

Actually an interesting proposal. If Armenia joined the Russian federation they would get some degree of greater protection, at the cost of much of their sovereignty and democracy.

But that is probably the fate of many a small country in the coming decades. Nothing new, that is how it was before WWII.

Welcome back to the pre WWII multipolar world. Kill or be killed, join or die, small countries must become protectorates less they be outright invaded or carved up.

That is the scary thing here. Azerbaijan was angry with the status quo, they changed it by having more men, money and weapons, and nobody cares. Plenty of other countries probably saw this and are now thinking just how much they can take by force. Starting wars you can win means big rewards.
Anyone unhappy with the current borders can change it, if they have the force to do it.

Before there were some, albeit inconsistent norms that had limited the number of full out wars like this.
Those norms are dead or dying.

We better get ready. Turn ourselves into a missile lined ship surrounded fortress nobody wants to fuck with again.
But we have the resource and geography to do so. Armenia does not.
They have to decide whose colony or protectorate they will be.

And their choices are Russia, Turkey, or Azerbaijan. Russia is obviously the least bad of those choices for them, as bad as it might be.

[Vapormancer]

Maybe they can get Putin to send some totally volunteer emigrant settlers and Kaliningrad/Crimea themselves. Probably a better option than getting ground down and thrown into history's graveyard of nations by the Turks over the next century

Maybe they should've considered this before they overextended themselves in the last war-- it's not like no one knew Azerbaijan had oil money and an affinity with the Turks. Now they're up shit creek without a paddle, and have to be dependent on the warmth and kindness of Moscow to survive or hope to hold any of their remaining territory in the disputed area? I mean jesus

Actually and interesting proposal. If Armenia joined the Russian federation they would get some degree of greater protection, at the cost of much of their sovereignty and democracy.

But they is probably the fate of many a small country in the coming decades.

Welcome back to the pre WWII multipolar world. Kill or be killed, join or die, small countries must becoming protectorates less the be outright invaded or carved up.

That is the scary thing here. Azerbaijan was angry with the status quo, they changed it by gave more men, money and weapons, and nobody cares. Plenty of other countries probably saw this and are now thinking just how much they can take by force.
Anyone unhappy with the current borders can change it, if they have the force to do it.

Before there were some, albeit inconsistent norms that had limited the number of full out wars like this.
Those norms are dead or dying.

We better get ready. Turn ourselves into a missile lined ship surrounded fortress nobody wants to fuck with again.
But we have the resource and geography to do so. Armenia does not.
They have to decide whose colony or protectorate they will be.

And their choices are Russia, Turkey, or Azerbaijan. Russia is obviously the least bad of those choices for them, as bad as it might be.

This is the best analysis of the situation tbh.

[Saiwania]

It is with great disappointment that it seems to be that the war has ended with an overwhelming victory for Azerbaijan.

Now is perhaps the time for Armenia to do as Germany once did after WWI if it can: build up the industry and military, prepare for the next war.

[Novus America]

It is with great disappointment that it seems to be that the war has ended with an overwhelming victory for Azerbaijan.

Now is perhaps the time for Armenia to do as Germany once did after WWI if it can: build up the industry and military, prepare for the next war.

Germany had a big, fast growing population, a good geographic position, lots of resources, a strong technological and economic base.
They still lost.

Armenia has none of those things. Armenia should arm itself as best it can, improve its economy and military as best it can, but it is unlikely that would be nearly enough to revers this, or even prevent further defeats.

[Shofercia]

Why do you think the Russian Peacekeepers are there? To defend the people. Russia stayed neutral in the war, and that was a failure, but Russia's recent Peace Deal prevented the Genocide of Astarkh. Let's not lose sight of that.

Genocide! I've never heard such a good joke. Next you'll tell me the Russians "genocided" the Germans with that logic. Tell me, is population relocation genocide? If so, when do we haul Russian WW2 veterans before the Hague?

In order to have population relocation, you need a corridor of escape. Population doesn't rematerialize in Point B from Point A, nor does population get beamed out by Scotty; population must actually travel from Point A to Point B, and in order to do so, they need a way, a path, a road, to get from Point A to Point B. Was there a Corridor of Escape for the Armenian civilians prior to the Russian Sponsored Peace? If so, I'll admit that I was wrong. If not, you won't admit that you were wrong.

That is the scary thing here. Azerbaijan was angry with the status quo, they changed it by having more men, money and weapons, and nobody cares. Plenty of other countries probably saw this and are now thinking just how much they can take by force. Starting wars you can win means big rewards. Anyone unhappy with the current borders can change it, if they have the force to do it.

That's also kind of why I'm surprised that no permanent UNSC countries stood up to bat. The precedent set here ain't good.

[Senkaku]

Anyone unhappy with the current borders can change it, if they have the force to do it.

Well, the problem Armenia had is that Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh/whatever-the-fuck you want to call is really that it wasn't technically part of their current borders. It's as though Israel were trying to pry the West Bank away from a stronger neighbor-- they hadn't annexed it, and if they had it wouldn't have been recognized. It's just an area they managed to dislodge and cast into dispute, not an area they consolidated. If Yerevan had gotten the world to recognize its sovereignty over the region, maybe the Russians would have intervened when Azerbaijan came back for round two-- but Russia has made clear it would only do that if Armenia proper were to be attacked.

If the Armenians can come up with a game-changing military technology that gives them the upper hand in a future round three (as it seems Azerbaijan had this time with those drones of theirs that have gotten so much press), perhaps they'll be able to make up for their otherwise diminishing strength. Otherwise, yeah, their best bet is to hold on to Russia for dear life.

As for the whole Festung Amerika nonsense, I have some doubts that that's viable any more in the globalized world and in the Missile Age.

[Novus America]

Anyone unhappy with the current borders can change it, if they have the force to do it.

Well, the problem Armenia had is that Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh/whatever-the-fuck you want to call is really that it wasn't technically part of their current borders. It's as though Israel were trying to pry the West Bank away from a stronger neighbor-- they hadn't annexed it, and if they had it wouldn't have been recognized. It's just an area they managed to dislodge and cast into dispute, not an area they consolidated. If Yerevan had gotten the world to recognize its sovereignty over the region, maybe the Russians would have intervened when Azerbaijan came back for round two-- but Russia has made clear it would only do that if Armenia proper were to be attacked.

If the Armenians can come up with a game-changing military technology that gives them the upper hand in a future round three (as it seems Azerbaijan had this time with those drones of theirs that have gotten so much press), perhaps they'll be able to make up for their otherwise diminishing strength. Otherwise, yeah, their best bet is to hold on to Russia for dear life.

As for the whole Festung Amerika nonsense, I have some doubts that that's viable any more in the globalized world and in the Missile Age.

Okay sure, it was that Azerbaijan was unhappy with the status quo and de facto boarders, not the de jure borders which favored them. But then what happens to say Taiwan?

But the main thing is Azerbaijan started a war and won, and was rewarded. This of course creates an incentive to start wars.

Sure America was better able to defend ourselves in 1960 when we were almost completely economically independent and self sufficient but greater economic independence has to be part of the strategy of course. Who controls your economy controls your country, obviously outsourcing to our enemies has to stop too.

But actually missiles can benefit the defender, many modern technologies can be used for area denial.
And with our natural defense they help. But that was my point. I said we need more ships and missiles.
That was the point. Have shit ton of missiles.

So that we can fire shit tons of missiles at anyone tryin to attack us.

What other choice do we have? I am glad to here if you have better ideas on how we should allocate the necessary increase in military resources though.

Although actually Azerbaijan did not win with technology alone. Sure they used drones to great effect (obviously we need to learn from this and massively improve our ECM/EW capabilities) but after the drones weakened the enemy defenses they still used good old fashioned mechanized infantry and tank assaults.

It was not that new, it was something like we did to Iraq in 1990, superior SEAD, air superiority, then smashing through them with tanks and mechanized infantry once the air strikes had weakened and demoralized them.

“While drones will be hailed as the straw that broke the camel’s back in this war, Azerbaijani success is also attributed to good ol’ fashioned mechanized infantry operations that took the territory, one square kilometer at a time,” says Bendett.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... menia/amp/

It was not that Azerbaijan was so brilliant, it was that Armenia was had fewer people, less money and relied on military hardware from the Soviets, which was built for an entirely different military doctrine than they needed to use.
Armenia screwed up, sure.
But it will be hard for them to revert it because they simply cannot compete with the money and men.

Azerbaijan could buy the best weapons because they could afford to. Armenia does not have as much money to buy the best equipment and cannot field as large mechanized forces.

[-Ocelot-]

Isn't that good? No western imperialism and all? Besides, Armenia has their Russian orthodox brothers to help them.

Oh wait Russia actually sided with Turkey/Azerbaijan. What a shocker.

Russia remained neutral, whereas you're making it look like Russia actively supported one side, which is total bullshit.

This is so completely false it can't even be argued against. It's like I have to explain why the sky isn't pink.

Russia sided with Turkey, no matter how you slice it. It sent 2000 solders abroad to make sure Azerbaijan will keep the newly captured territory. They are not fooling anyone.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

One day the world will regret aiding in Turkish aggression in the Middle East. But by then it'll be too late to stop it.

[Vapormancer]

Genocide! I've never heard such a good joke. Next you'll tell me the Russians "genocided" the Germans with that logic. Tell me, is population relocation genocide? If so, when do we haul Russian WW2 veterans before the Hague?

In order to have population relocation, you need a corridor of escape. Population doesn't rematerialize in Point B from Point A, nor does population get beamed out by Scotty; population must actually travel from Point A to Point B, and in order to do so, they need a way, a path, a road, to get from Point A to Point B. Was there a Corridor of Escape for the Armenian civilians prior to the Russian Sponsored Peace? If so, I'll admit that I was wrong. If not, you won't admit that you were wrong.

After having checked the live map and made there were not encirclement that occurred to "block" movement within the last two months, I decided to illustrate this for you specially because I so very much respect your opinion and your positions!

I made a map just for you :^)

Maybe you can point out where the dastardly Azeris were building gas chambers and ovens? Surely you can manage that evidence of genocide.

[Vapormancer]

One day the world will regret aiding in Turkish aggression in the Middle East. But by then it'll be too late to stop it.

Yes, yes we will. Good thing we made them tear apart all their guard rails for Democracy! Thanks Liberals, very cool!

[Deacarsia]

The Kingdom of Deacarsia fully supports the Republic of Armenia in its conflict with the Republic of Azerbaijan.

[Tekke]

So when does Turkey and Azerbaijan re-open there borders with Armenia. This should help Armenia's economy.

When the Armenian government apologized for the persecution of the Turkish people.We stand shoulder to shoulder against fascism

Mostly Kurdish people were being massacred by the Armenians since the Kurdish settlements were closer to the Armenians. But yeah, you're right.

[Salus Maior]

Why do you think the Russian Peacekeepers are there? To defend the people. Russia stayed neutral in the war, and that was a failure, but Russia's recent Peace Deal prevented the Genocide of Astarkh. Let's not lose sight of that.

Genocide! I've never heard such a good joke. Next you'll tell me the Russians "genocided" the Germans with that logic. Tell me, is population relocation genocide? If so, when do we haul Russian WW2 veterans before the Hague?

It can be, yes.

Also, hi TEM. Did you lose your nation again?

[Salus Maior]

When the Armenian government apologized for the persecution of the Turkish people.We stand shoulder to shoulder against fascism

Mostly Kurdish people were being massacred by the Armenians since the Kurdish settlements were closer to the Armenians. But yeah, you're right.

Can you source that?

[Salus Maior]

In order to have population relocation, you need a corridor of escape. Population doesn't rematerialize in Point B from Point A, nor does population get beamed out by Scotty; population must actually travel from Point A to Point B, and in order to do so, they need a way, a path, a road, to get from Point A to Point B. Was there a Corridor of Escape for the Armenian civilians prior to the Russian Sponsored Peace? If so, I'll admit that I was wrong. If not, you won't admit that you were wrong.

After having checked the live map and made there were not encirclement that occurred to "block" movement within the last two months, I decided to illustrate this for you specially because I so very much respect your opinion and your positions!

I made a map just for you :^)

Maybe you can point out where the dastardly Azeris were building gas chambers and ovens? Surely you can manage that evidence of genocide.

That map is completely out of date.

[Vapormancer]

After having checked the live map and made there were not encirclement that occurred to "block" movement within the last two months, I decided to illustrate this for you specially because I so very much respect your opinion and your positions!

I made a map just for you :^)

(Image)

Maybe you can point out where the dastardly Azeris were building gas chambers and ovens? Surely you can manage that evidence of genocide.

That map is completely out of date.

I used a map during the peak of the fighting because I was being generous to Shofercia, if I used a current map, it'd be even easier to his point look ridiculous with the clean lines. Perhaps I should have not been generous!

Edit: I made a map for you too <3

Genocide! I've never heard such a good joke. Next you'll tell me the Russians "genocided" the Germans with that logic. Tell me, is population relocation genocide? If so, when do we haul Russian WW2 veterans before the Hague?

It can be, yes.

Also, hi TEM. Did you lose your nation again?

I felt the name and the /aesthetics/ far more fitting. If population relocation is genocide, then it seems the most easily and time proven method of dealing with the issues of a multicultural place despising each other is genocide. We will have to haul quite a few Western leaders before the Hague and alas, Allied Forces will be Nuremburg'd. Its an absurd position to say the least.

[Salus Maior]

That map is completely out of date.

I used a map during the peak of the fighting because I was being generous to Shofercia, if I used a current map, it'd be even easier to his point look ridiculous with the clean lines. Perhaps I should have not been generous!

It can be, yes.

Also, hi TEM. Did you lose your nation again?

I felt the name and the /aesthetics/ far more fitting. If population relocation is genocide, then it seems the most easily and time proven method of dealing with the issues of a multicultural place despising each other is genocide. We will have to haul quite a few Western leaders before the Hague and alas, Allied Forces will be Nuremburg'd. Its an absurd position to say the least.

You realize that the Azeris attempted to take the Lachin corridor, which is the only decent roadway between Armenia and Artsakh? That would have cut off anyone attempting to flee to Armenia, and likewise anyone trying to get to Artsakh from Armenia. And considering Azerbaijan's history with Armenian minorities, it's not far fetched at all that they would have attempted another pogrom. The 90's weren't that long ago, and their rhetoric hasn't changed, nor have their actions either really considering they opened up this conflict by shelling civilian centers.


Mmhm. Yes, if there were in a just world a great deal many Westerners would end up before the Hague. I think it's completely fair and consistent to say that.