Trump to delay the election

[San Lumen]

Listen, man. A coup will not happen. It didn't happen in 1861, 1862, 1863, 1864, or 1865. In the middle of a fucking civil war. Hell, elections still happened in 1864. There will be no coup. Saying there's even a chance of one is stupid.

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

The military will not do it. No officer is going to risk a court marshal for attempting a coup

[Katganistan]

There is nothing rational about your fears. Mail-in voting already happens routinely. It is not a new, never before tried idea, conceived purely for this election.

So is drinking bleach to cure autism. Both ideas are stupid. It does not take much intellect to see why having the postal service between you and the safety of the ballot box is a bad idea.

And what of the Diebold voting machines that were pre-loaded with votes?
The "hanging chads" of the election in Florida?


There is no reason to delay the election, and no reason to prevent a mail-in vote alongside the in-person vote. There was voter fraud caught with in-person voting.

Mail-in voting has been done since the Civil War, and is commonly done with little to no fraud for Americans who are out of the country for the election, as well as in some states. The claim is unsubstantiated.

[Atheris]

Listen, man. A coup will not happen. It didn't happen in 1861, 1862, 1863, 1864, or 1865. In the middle of a fucking civil war. Hell, elections still happened in 1864. There will be no coup. Saying there's even a chance of one is stupid.

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

I can claim the exact opposite. Your worst-case scenario bias is noted, but it doesn't prove me wrong. We had the partisan bias of brother against brother and the mix of multiple incompetent narcissistic leaders.

[Katganistan]

If I remember correctly there was a report last week or so about the possibility of an large increase in mail in voting would most likely overwhelm the postal service and that delivery of ballots could not be guaranteed.

Because the new appointee running the Postal Service is forcing slowdowns, and the Senate refuses to fund the Post Office -- which is our Constitutional right to have.

[Uiiop]

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

The military will not do it. No officer is going to risk a court marshal for attempting a coup

There's a distinction between the military and the police,DHS, ,CBP/ICE, and right wing militias .
I agree with you that the military wouldn't do it but others groups might. Maybe not all the members but enough to cause a shitshow.

[San Lumen]

The military will not do it. No officer is going to risk a court marshal for attempting a coup

There's a distinction between the military and the police,DHS, ,CBP/ICE, and right wing militias .
I agree with you that the military wouldn't do it but others groups might. Maybe not all the members but enough to cause a shitshow.

Good freaking luck. They will get nowhere

[US-SSR]

So let me get this straight: Trump wants to distract from the news he's flushed the economy down 10 percent in the last quarter so he suggests delaying the general election for the first time in history? Isn't that a little like trying to distract from the news he beats his wife by suggesting he screws his daughter too?

What this is is political cover for any Republican governor, legislature, mayor, registrar or judge who wants to make it more difficult for people to vote on November 3. And it's not going to work.

Sending federal brownshirts to Democratic cities is flopping. The military isn't going to show up for the man who thinks Russian bounties on GIs is no big deal. And if the Postal Service goes belly up most people are going to crawl on their bellies over broken glass to cast their ballots against the worst US President in history.

If there's no election before next January Nancy Pelosi becomes President so that's not gonna work out. Short of instigating nuclear holocaust or outright civil war, Trump has finally run into a situation he can't lie, cheat, sue, gaslight, declare bankruptcy or NDA his way out of. He is going to lose, bigly, and he knows it. And there is nothing he can do about it.

[Atheris]

So is drinking bleach to cure autism. Both ideas are stupid. It does not take much intellect to see why having the postal service between you and the safety of the ballot box is a bad idea.

And what of the Diebold voting machines that were pre-loaded with votes?

No, I wanna vote for Obama!

[Uiiop]

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

I can claim the exact opposite. Your worst-case scenario bias is noted, but it doesn't prove me wrong. We had the partisan bias of brother against brother and the mix of multiple incompetent narcissistic leaders.

Nothing on the level of the widespread siege mentality from current police and allegiance to partisan conspiracy theories on some of the police and DHS. The confederates only had the south but the Conservative police are everywhere.

[San Lumen]

So let me get this straight: Trump wants to distract from the news he's flushed the economy down 10 percent in the last quarter so he suggests delaying the general election for the first time in history? Isn't that a little like trying to distract from the news he beats his wife by suggesting he screws his daughter too?

What this is is political cover for any Republican governor, legislature, mayor, registrar or judge who wants to make it more difficult for people to vote on November 3. And it's not going to work.

Sending federal brownshirts to Democratic cities is flopping. The military isn't going to show up for the man who thinks Russian bounties on GIs is no big deal. And if the Postal Service goes belly up most people are going to crawl on their bellies over broken glass to cast their ballots against the worst US President in history.

If there's no election before next January Nancy Pelosi becomes President so that's not gonna work out. Short of instigating nuclear holocaust or outright civil war, Trump has finally run into a situation he can't lie, cheat, sue, gaslight, declare bankruptcy or NDA his way out of. He is going to lose, bigly, and he knows it. And there is nothing he can do about it.

Not only do I hope he loses in a landslide. I want to see the Republicans so decimated down ballot it takes a decade or more for them to recover

[Uiiop]

There's a distinction between the military and the police,DHS, ,CBP/ICE, and right wing militias .
I agree with you that the military wouldn't do it but others groups might. Maybe not all the members but enough to cause a shitshow.

Good freaking luck. They will get nowhere

"Shitshow" and "Getting nowhere" are not mutually exclusive. I just don't want to anymore bloodshed even if it does nothing poltically.

[San Lumen]

Good freaking luck. They will get nowhere

"Shitshow" and "Getting nowhere" are not mutually exclusive. I just don't want to anymore bloodshed even if it does nothing poltically.

Nor do I but this coup talk is complete and utter fantasy.

[Alcala-Cordel]

The military will not do it. No officer is going to risk a court marshal for attempting a coup

There's a distinction between the military and the police,DHS, ,CBP/ICE, and right wing militias .
I agree with you that the military wouldn't do it but others groups might. Maybe not all the members but enough to cause a shitshow.

And other right-wing militias. Not all of them can call themselves state-run agencies.

[Gun Manufacturers]

Yes, but it's mostly packages. Plus you'd have to imagine that fewer ballots would be lost since it's literally impossible to fuck up the posting.

That's still a whole lot though. But it would indeed be lower for te ballots as thaty at least would be in a standard envelope format so the machines won't have trouble with them.

So fears of ballots being stolen are not based on evidence of that happening.

Did you actually understand my initial post, because I doubt that.

Quite a few absentee ballot requests in the town I work in are being sent back out with the original addressee's information still visible in the window instead of the address where it's SUPPOSED to be going. It's really starting to get annoying.

[Picairn]

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

If you think the political situation before the Civil War was normal, you should read up on the division of American politics in the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854 then. One Senator was even beat unconscious with a cane in 1856, in the middle of Congress.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Sending federal brownshirts to Democratic cities is flopping. The military isn't going to show up for the man who thinks Russian bounties on GIs is no big deal. And if the Postal Service goes belly up most people are going to crawl on their bellies over broken glass to cast their ballots against the worst US President in history.

Only if they haven't already mailed in a ballot. That their mail-in "probably" won't make it is not a good enough reason. They'd be voting twice which is rather illegal.

If the mail is excessively delayed, the date to stop accepting mail-ins will have to be extended. I see no alternative.

Vote early people!

[Eahland]

I think it's safe to say that Trump just lost the election.

I honestly don't think he will: I'm sure he'll lose the popular vote, but I genuinely doubt that he will lose the electoral college at all. And even if he does, I do not believe he will recognize the results.

The electoral math looks even worse for Trump than the popular vote. There's been a +5-10% blue shift basically everywhere - and the redder the state was, the larger the shift tends to be. Nothing's going to shift Trump's core of fanatics, but everyone else is abandoning him in droves. Basically all of 2016's swing states are polling solid blue this time around, and the new swing states are ones that were safe red before Trump had four years to demonstrate what an incompetent sociopathic monster he really is. Several critical states, Florida and Texas among them, have been experiencing mass deaths because of Trump's pandemic handling, and their voters seem not to appreciate it at all.

Some states of interest:
Michigan +9% (+9% shift)
Pennsylvania +8% (+9% shift)
Wisconsin +7% (+8% shift)
New Hampshire +7% (+7% shift)
Florida +7% (+8% shift)
Arizona +5% (+9% shift)
Nevada +3% (+1% shift)
North Carolina +3% (+7% shift)
Georgia +1% (+7% shift)
Texas +1% (+10% shift)
-----------------
Iowa -1% (+8% shift)
Ohio -2% (+6% shift)
Arkansas -2% (+25%(!!!) shift)
Utah -3% (+15% shift)
Montana -5% (+15% shift)
Alaska -6% (+9% shift)
Missouri -7% (+12% shift)
Tennessee -9% (+17% shift)

It's basically impossible to find Maine numbers broken down by district, and no one has bothered polling Nebraska at all this cycle, but, based on the patterns of support shifting elsewhere, I suspect both ME-2 and NE-2, which went Trump in 2016, are leaning blue this year, for what they're worth (1 EV each is what). ME-1 (and Maine's 2 overall EVs) is certainly safe blue, and NE-1 and NE-3 (and Nebraska's 2 overall EVs) are certainly lost to the enemy.

Everything else is polling ±10% or more, or hasn't been polled at all this cycle, because it's both small and a forgone conclusion (like, there's no way Vermont or Idaho are flipping, and no one cares), and should be assumed to be out of play, unless something really extreme happens (like Trump gets the coronavirus and dies or the like).

By my figuring, Biden has 301 EVs in his pocket before looking at swing states. (You need 270 to win; if no candidate gets 270, it goes to the House.) He could lose Florida (I don't trust Florida not to fuck everything up, whatever the polls might say), and everything polling redder than Florida, and he'd still pull in 272 EVs and an EC victory. Texas and its 38 EVs have been consistently polling within margin of error. Friggin' Utah is only polling -3%.

You know what you call a Democrat who loses Utah by 3%?

"Mr. President."

There's a reason that Trump and the Republicans (their "bridge too far" reaction to this latest blatantly unconstitutional Trump nonsense aside) have been doing all they can to disrupt and discredit the American electoral process. If the elections actually go off properly, Trump is going to get wrecked, and they all know it.

[Outer Sparta]

I honestly don't think he will: I'm sure he'll lose the popular vote, but I genuinely doubt that he will lose the electoral college at all. And even if he does, I do not believe he will recognize the results.

The electoral math looks even worse for Trump than the popular vote. There's been a +5-10% blue shift basically everywhere - and the redder the state was, the larger the shift tends to be. Nothing's going to shift Trump's core of fanatics, but everyone else is abandoning him in droves. Basically all of 2016's swing states are polling solid blue this time around, and the new swing states are ones that were safe red before Trump had four years to demonstrate what an incompetent sociopathic monster he really is. Several critical states, Florida and Texas among them, have been experiencing mass deaths because of Trump's pandemic handling, and their voters seem not to appreciate it at all.

Some states of interest:
Michigan +9% (+9% shift)
Pennsylvania +8% (+9% shift)
Wisconsin +7% (+8% shift)
New Hampshire +7% (+7% shift)
Florida +7% (+8% shift)
Arizona +5% (+9% shift)
Nevada +3% (+1% shift)
North Carolina +3% (+7% shift)
Georgia +1% (+7% shift)
Texas +1% (+10% shift)
-----------------
Iowa -1% (+8% shift)
Ohio -2% (+6% shift)
Arkansas -2% (+25%(!!!) shift)
Utah -3% (+15% shift)
Montana -5% (+15% shift)
Alaska -6% (+9% shift)
Missouri -7% (+12% shift)
Tennessee -9% (+17% shift)

It's basically impossible to find Maine numbers broken down by district, and no one has bothered polling Nebraska at all this cycle, but, based on the patterns of support shifting elsewhere, I suspect both ME-2 and NE-2, which went Trump in 2016, are leaning blue this year, for what they're worth (1 EV each is what). ME-1 (and Maine's 2 overall EVs) is certainly safe blue, and NE-1 and NE-3 (and Nebraska's 2 overall EVs) are certainly lost to the enemy.

Everything else is polling ±10% or more, or hasn't been polled at all this cycle, because it's both small and a forgone conclusion (like, there's no way Vermont or Idaho are flipping, and no one cares), and should be assumed to be out of play, unless something really extreme happens (like Trump gets the coronavirus and dies or the like).

By my figuring, Biden has 301 EVs in his pocket before looking at swing states. (You need 270 to win; if no candidate gets 270, it goes to the House.) He could lose Florida (I don't trust Florida not to fuck everything up, whatever the polls might say), and everything polling redder than Florida, and he'd still pull in 272 EVs and an EC victory. Texas and its 38 EVs have been consistently polling within margin of error. Friggin' Utah is only polling -3%.

You know what you call a Democrat who loses Utah by 3%?

"Mr. President."

There's a reason that Trump and the Republicans (their "bridge too far" reaction to this latest blatantly unconstitutional Trump nonsense aside) have been doing all they can to disrupt and discredit the American electoral process. If the elections actually go off properly, Trump is going to get wrecked, and they all know it.

Of course it's also no time for Democrats to get complacent at any moment. It should give them an incentive to keep on pushing, just like a football team with a big lead going to push to score even more goals.

[Xmara]

I know that Trump obviously cannot delay or prevent the election and that no matter what, he will have to exit office if Biden wins, but I am legitimately concerned that he will not want to leave office if he loses in November.

[San Lumen]

I know that Trump obviously cannot delay or prevent the election and that no matter what, he will have to exit office if Biden wins, but I am legitimately concerned that he will not want to leave office if he loses in November.

It doesn't matter what he wants to do. He will be forced to leave once the clock strikes noon on January 20th

[Godular]

I know that Trump obviously cannot delay or prevent the election and that no matter what, he will have to exit office if Biden wins, but I am legitimately concerned that he will not want to leave office if he loses in November.

I for one welcome the resulting trial for treason.

[Rusozak]

I know that Trump obviously cannot delay or prevent the election and that no matter what, he will have to exit office if Biden wins, but I am legitimately concerned that he will not want to leave office if he loses in November.

Is there a contingency for an elected official refusing to leave office after their term expires? Do they said a squad of jedi masters to arrest them?

[Uiiop]

Your normalcy bias is noted but it doesn't prove me wrong. We didn't have the partisan bias of institutional forces and the mix of incompetent narcissistic leader back then.

If you think the political situation before the Civil War was normal, you should read up on the division of American politics in the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854 then. One Senator was even beat unconscious with a cane in 1856, in the middle of Congress.

Were the cops and and military just as polarized overall or was that a southern issue?

[The Rich Port]

I know that Trump obviously cannot delay or prevent the election and that no matter what, he will have to exit office if Biden wins, but I am legitimately concerned that he will not want to leave office if he loses in November.

I'm more concerned with the electoral college.

Fact of the matter is, it's rigged towards states with smaller, less educated, less diverse and homogenous populations, and they all trend towards Trump.

I hope the Democrats have a solid strategy on securing the vote in key states or at least decreasing the impact and advantage that Minimum Vote States give to the Republicans or else... Worst case scenario, we have to put up with this crap for four more years because Donald Trump didn't win the popular vote but he won the electoral college again.

Not to mention, if Donald Trump gets to be worried about voter fraud, then so do fucking I.

He harps on and on about this bullshit like he anticipates it. Say he's right. What's stopping HIM and the Republicans from rigging the voting process? He's already gutted the Postal Service, so mail-in ballots are a problem.

And I have problems with voting anyway. There needs to be a way so that votes are confirmed to the voter. Last I checked, I gave my ballot to a ballot counter and that was it. Prior to that I used a machine, and I'm pretty sure the machine didn't tell me it registered my vote correctly.

[Godular]

If you think the political situation before the Civil War was normal, you should read up on the division of American politics in the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854 then. One Senator was even beat unconscious with a cane in 1856, in the middle of Congress.

Were the cops and and military just as polarized overall or was that a southern issue?

I suspect that southern rich folk at the time just had an instinctual predisposition towards resolving disobedience with violence.