2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Dresderstan]

[United States of Devonta]

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Hm Pennsylvania voting to the left of Michigan, I doubt it. Michigan will goto Biden by the highest margin of any Rust Belt state.

Also, I don't think Ohio will vote to the right of Iowa.

[Cisairse]

Of course if I had to make a prediction for November, I'd expect the race to contract quite a bit, and for Biden's victory to be quite close.
I would be very surprised if Biden wins more than 355 electoral votes. I expect the map will look similar to 2012's, except Trump to win Iowa, and Biden to win Arizona, NE-2, and possibly North Carolina.

EDIT: Wait, I just realized, that is literally the map I posted earlier if Trump wins GA and TX and Biden wins FL.

[La Xinga]

Of course if I had to make a prediction for November, I'd expect the race to contract quite a bit, and for Biden's victory to be quite close.
I would be very surprised if Biden wins more than 355 electoral votes. I expect the map will look similar to 2012's, except Trump to win Iowa, and Biden to win Arizona, NE-2, and possibly North Carolina.

EDIT: Wait, I just realized, that is literally the map I posted earlier if Trump wins GA and TX and Biden wins FL.

I think Trump would win Ohio too, don't you?

[Cisairse]

Of course if I had to make a prediction for November, I'd expect the race to contract quite a bit, and for Biden's victory to be quite close.
I would be very surprised if Biden wins more than 355 electoral votes. I expect the map will look similar to 2012's, except Trump to win Iowa, and Biden to win Arizona, NE-2, and possibly North Carolina.

EDIT: Wait, I just realized, that is literally the map I posted earlier if Trump wins GA and TX and Biden wins FL.

I think Trump would win Ohio too, don't you?

No, I definitely see Ohio swinging back to the Democrats this election. That is, assuming Biden wins the election overall. I believe that Ohio will not yet give up their status as bellwether state; they are a tilt-red state in terms of raw political leaning, but the country is itself tilt-red due to how our election system works.

For the record I feel the same way about Florida for the same reason. I don't believe we will see Biden flip only MI, PA, and AZ to achieve a "skinny victory." Biden will either lose, or will win most swing states.

[Aureumterra]

I think Trump would win Ohio too, don't you?

No, I definitely see Ohio swinging back to the Democrats this election. That is, assuming Biden wins the election overall. I believe that Ohio will not yet give up their status as bellwether state; they are a tilt-red state in terms of raw political leaning, but the country is itself tilt-red due to how our election system works.

For the record I feel the same way about Florida for the same reason. I don't believe we will see Biden flip only MI, PA, and AZ to achieve a "skinny victory." Biden will either lose, or will win most swing states.

A landslide? During such a polarized election? I don’t see a landslide either way.

Right now obviously I think Biden has better chances of winning, but not in a landslide. And if Trump wins, it will also be by a thread, maybe by two electoral votes by losing Michigan and Pennsylvania but keeping everything else from 2016 (in which case faithless electors for Biden have the potential to cause political upheaval by electing him, as someone else mentioned I think)

[Asle Leopolka]

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Hm Pennsylvania voting to the left of Michigan, I doubt it. Michigan will goto Biden by the highest margin of any Rust Belt state.

Also, I don't think Ohio will vote to the right of Iowa.

Biden's from Scranton, PA, so unless he does something monumentally stupid between now and November it'll be a fairly deep blue.

As for Ohio, DeWine has a strong approval rating even among Democrats, so that tells me the state will stay red, even though Biden and Trump are in a statistical tie right now.

[Aureumterra]

Hm Pennsylvania voting to the left of Michigan, I doubt it. Michigan will goto Biden by the highest margin of any Rust Belt state.

Also, I don't think Ohio will vote to the right of Iowa.

Biden's from Scranton, PA, so unless he does something monumentally stupid between now and November it'll be a fairly deep blue.

Why? I mean why does him being from Pennsylvania ensure Pennsylvania going deep blue? Trump is from New York, obviously that’s not going red.

[Dresderstan]

Biden's from Scranton, PA, so unless he does something monumentally stupid between now and November it'll be a fairly deep blue.

Why? I mean why does him being from Pennsylvania ensure Pennsylvania going deep blue? Trump is from New York, obviously that’s not going red.

Because it would solidify votes in the North-east part of the state where Trump was able to actually cut into, him being from the Wyoming Valley, plus Trump losing headway means he could not only win the state and the valley again, he could win back areas in Central PA, Erie county and the state capital and increase his lead in the cities of The Pitt and Philly.

[Cannot think of a name]

Biden's from Scranton, PA, so unless he does something monumentally stupid between now and November it'll be a fairly deep blue.

Why? I mean why does him being from Pennsylvania ensure Pennsylvania going deep blue? Trump is from New York, obviously that’s not going red.

Trump, as the Trumpest are fond of reminding us all, is not a 'traditional politician.' He didn't build up an electoral base moving from local to statewide to national offices. Generally speaking and with rare exceptions, successful politicians tend to be most successful in their 'home' states where they built their political bases.

Trump, on the other hand, spent most of his time laying giant steamers in New York and eating pizza with a fork and knife. Trump built is 'base' through branding and reality shows and doesn't share the same geographical advantage. So he can be a successful politician (in that he got elected) with no geographic base.

[United States of Devonta]

Trump sues Neveda over new expansion of mail-in voting in the state

This is fucking disgraceful. I'm sure the court will dismiss this silly lawsuit, but c'mon! States like Colorado have been doing this for years now and turn-out spikes up. Trump - like most Republicans - is afraid of making it easier for a majority of Americans to vote because it'll mean they will lose.

[Asle Leopolka]

Biden's from Scranton, PA, so unless he does something monumentally stupid between now and November it'll be a fairly deep blue.

Why? I mean why does him being from Pennsylvania ensure Pennsylvania going deep blue? Trump is from New York, obviously that’s not going red.

Philly and Pitt will always lean left.
Hillary lost the white working class vote in PA because she neglected to meet with them, union workers, etc. Trump noticed that and took advantage.
Biden grew up in a blue collar part of the state and has strong union backing. That's why Obama picked Biden as his VP - he knew Biden could connect with the blue collar, union voters and help maintain the blue wall in the rust belt. Combine that with the "hometown hero" mindset most Presidential candidates can enjoy (hell, even Nixon got it in CA) and that all but guarantees a Biden victory there.

[Zurkerx]

Trump and the RNC raised $165 Million for July, out raising Biden and DNC's $140 million.

However, Biden and DNC have almost the same amount of cash-on hand as Trump and the RNC: Biden has $294 Million on hand; Trump has over $300 million. Just only a few months ago, it seemed Biden would struggle to close the gap. Now he has comfortably closed it and can go toe-to-toe with Trump, who has probably spent more money than Biden at this point.

[The Black Forrest]

Trump and the RNC raised $165 Million for July, out raising Biden and DNC's $140 million.

However, Biden and DNC have almost the same amount of cash-on hand as Trump and the RNC: Biden has $294 Million on hand; Trump has over $300 million. Just only a few months ago, it seemed Biden would struggle to close the gap. Now he has comfortably closed it and can go toe-to-toe with Trump, who has probably spent more money than Biden at this point.

Trump is going to need more as he will be spending money on states which should have been safe.

[Zurkerx]

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Here's mine with my past predictions:

Zurks 270 Map as of 5-30-2020

Zurk 270 Map from 6/16/2020

Zurk 270 Map from 7/3/2020

Zurk 270 Map from 7/14/2020

Battleground Map:

Barring a major change, I'm convinced Biden will take Michigan and Pennsylvania; I'm close to saying Wisconsin will go blue as well. The map does change a bit: I moved Georgia from tilt blue to tilt red.

[Zurkerx]

Trump and the RNC raised $165 Million for July, out raising Biden and DNC's $140 million.

However, Biden and DNC have almost the same amount of cash-on hand as Trump and the RNC: Biden has $294 Million on hand; Trump has over $300 million. Just only a few months ago, it seemed Biden would struggle to close the gap. Now he has comfortably closed it and can go toe-to-toe with Trump, who has probably spent more money than Biden at this point.

Trump is going to need more as he will be spending money on states which should have been safe.

Absolutely he will though it seems he has given up on the likes of Michigan and PA (for now) and is focusing on those safe States and Florida.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Trump is going to need more as he will be spending money on states which should have been safe.

Absolutely he will though it seems he has given up on the likes of Michigan and PA (for now) and is focusing on those safe States and Florida.

I doubt Trump and his campaign has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan Pennsylvania, or any other states.

[Davinhia]

I don't like any party but the Greens are my choice from that list and closest believe in what I do

However when it comes to dems vs republicans, I'm just so sick of the democrats and their shit so I'd choose republicans

[Greater Miami Shores]

I don't like any party but the Greens are my choice from that list and closest believe in what I do

However when it comes to dems vs republicans, I'm just so sick of the democrats and their shit so I'd choose republicans

Interesting post, I get roasted on the forums, anytime I say anything Pro Trump and anti Democrats, as a Republican.

[Neutraligon]

I don't like any party but the Greens are my choice from that list and closest believe in what I do

However when it comes to dems vs republicans, I'm just so sick of the democrats and their shit so I'd choose republicans

Hmm, so you are not tired of the last 4 years?

[The Black Forrest]

I don't like any party but the Greens are my choice from that list and closest believe in what I do

However when it comes to dems vs republicans, I'm just so sick of the democrats and their shit so I'd choose republicans

Are you now. So tell me. What is maga and how has he made the country better?

[Greater Miami Shores]

I don't like any party but the Greens are my choice from that list and closest believe in what I do

However when it comes to dems vs republicans, I'm just so sick of the democrats and their shit so I'd choose republicans

Hmm, so you are not tired of the last 4 years?

Personally, I love the last 4 years and want Trump 4 more years, as most Republicans.

[Greater Miami Shores]

I think it is awesome there are black Republican supporters of President Trump. Even President Trump gets a share of the black vote, even if it is a small share it is a share. I love the fact African American Susan Rice has a black Republican son supporter of President Trump.

John David Rice-Cameron, the son of Susan Rice, is an outspoken pro-Trump, conservative leader at Stanford University. (Reuters/Courtesy of John David Rice-Cameron)

Like JJ, comedian Jimmy Walker from Good Times. I used to know Jimmy Walker, we were not friend friends, but we were acquaintances on good terms.

I know the Cuba issue is only important to Cuban Americans and especially in Florida. Which might hurt Karen Bass's chances as Biden's VP. But Susan Rice is also controversial on Cuba. Susan Rice, and Joe Biden both support Obama's policy on Cuba, like Karen Bass.

While Susan Rice says she and her son agree on many Pro USA terms, they sound nice and positive in general terms, but I think they would disagree on the details.

If Susan Rice becomes Biden's VP nominee, I will bring this to the attention of the GOP and the White House, at least I will try.

Links Provided:

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/g ... pc-culture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmie_Walker

https://www.foxnews.com/us/susan-rices- ... t-stanford

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/new- ... san-e-rice

[Andsed]

Hmm, so you are not tired of the last 4 years?

Personally, I love the last 4 years and want Trump 4 more years, as most Republicans.

What exactly has Trump done in these last 4 years that can be loved? All I have seen is incompetence, forgotten promises, and general buffoonery.

[Zurkerx]

Absolutely he will though it seems he has given up on the likes of Michigan and PA (for now) and is focusing on those safe States and Florida.

I doubt Trump and his campaign has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan Pennsylvania, or any other states.

Oh, there are Trump SuperPACs spending in those States but it seems their focus currently right now is on Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia; these are States that have some of the earliest voting. However, the Trump Campaign itself is not spending on any ads in Michigan or Pennsylvania right now, which is- odd given those are crucial States he needs again.