2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Jedi Council]

Geographically, yeah. Culturally, not at all.

Delaware is a geographically southern state?

According to the US Government, yes. The Census Bureau defines southern as Delware, West Virginia, Virginia, the Carolinas, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, and Oklahoma.

[Dresderstan]

Uhh Biden is from Pennsylvania, not the South no one considers it a southern state.

Delaware, however, you know the state he lives in and represented for almost four decades in the Senate, is a southern state.

He may have represented Delaware as a Senator, but it's not technically Southern, no one calls it a Southern state, and anyone who knows about Biden would know he was originally from Scranton before moving to Delaware. No one cares what the U.S. Census Bureau says they are wrong.

[Jedi Council]

Delaware, however, you know the state he lives in and represented for almost four decades in the Senate, is a southern state.

He may have represented Delaware as a Senator, but it's not technically Southern, no one calls it a Southern state, and anyone who knows about Biden would know he was originally from Scranton before moving to Delaware. No one cares what the U.S. Census Bureau says they are wrong.

Well it technically is a southern state, given that the US Government claims it is such.

Again, it might not be southern in popular conception, but that does not mean it isn't southern. Popular conception does not override official designation.

Why would Maryland be southern if Delware is not? The only argument there is the Mason-Dixon line, which is a little silly given that while the line supposedly shows the border between the free North and slave state South, Delaware was a slave state, alongside Maryland, until the Civil War.

Again, in terms of politics, and culture, it might be much more say "mid atlantic" than truly southern, but you could make the same argument about Maryland, DC, and parts of Virginia.

[Dresderstan]

He may have represented Delaware as a Senator, but it's not technically Southern, no one calls it a Southern state, and anyone who knows about Biden would know he was originally from Scranton before moving to Delaware. No one cares what the U.S. Census Bureau says they are wrong.

Well it technically is a southern state, given that the US Government claims it is such.

Again, it might not be southern in popular conception, but that does not mean it isn't southern. Popular conception does not override official designation.

Why would Maryland be southern if Delware is not? The only argument there is the Mason-Dixon line, which is a little silly given that while the line supposedly shows the border between the free North and slave state South, Delaware was a slave state, alongside Maryland, until the Civil War.

Again, in terms of politics, and culture, it might be much more say "mid atlantic" than truly southern, but you could make the same argument about Maryland, DC, and parts of Virginia.

Well technically they're wrong, it's a mid-Atlantic state along with Maryland.

[Jedi Council]

Well it technically is a southern state, given that the US Government claims it is such.

Again, it might not be southern in popular conception, but that does not mean it isn't southern. Popular conception does not override official designation.

Why would Maryland be southern if Delware is not? The only argument there is the Mason-Dixon line, which is a little silly given that while the line supposedly shows the border between the free North and slave state South, Delaware was a slave state, alongside Maryland, until the Civil War.

Again, in terms of politics, and culture, it might be much more say "mid atlantic" than truly southern, but you could make the same argument about Maryland, DC, and parts of Virginia.

Well technically they're wrong, it's a mid-Atlantic state along with Maryland.

That's not how the word technically works but I digress.

If we were going based on how actual Southerners felt about the South, as it appears most people would rather do, FiveThirtyEight actually did a piece on this which shows just how silly some peoples geographic conceptions are.

43% believed Texas was not a Southern State, while only around 50% said that Virginia, Kentucky, and fucking Arkansas were southern.

That's just mental.

So I would much rather rely on the factually definitions used by the US government in policy making, and census taking, rather than the entirely nebulous concepts of shared culture and popular conception.

I had to face a similar problem in my own country, Canada. Living in BC, about as far West as you can be, I grew up considering Central Canada to be roughly defined by Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and parts of Ontario. Everything beyond that was "Out East." So imagine my surprise when Central Canada was revealed to be Ontario and Quebec, with everything past Winnipeg being "The West."

[Dresderstan]

Well technically they're wrong, it's a mid-Atlantic state along with Maryland.

That's not how the word technically works but I digress.

If we were going based on how actual Southerners felt about the South, as it appears most people would rather do, FiveThirtyEight actually did a piece on this which shows just how silly some peoples geographic conceptions are.

43% believed Texas was not a Southern State, while only around 50% said that Virginia, Kentucky, and fucking Arkansas were southern.

That's just mental.

So I would much rather rely on the factually definitions used by the US government in policy making, and census taking, rather than the entirely nebulous concepts of shared culture and popular conception.

And I'd rather not trust the government on their dodgy definitions of a lot of shit, Maryland and Delaware are not Southern states, and the concept of shared culture and popular conception should matter more in this case than whatever BS the government thinks.

[Jedi Council]

That's not how the word technically works but I digress.

If we were going based on how actual Southerners felt about the South, as it appears most people would rather do, FiveThirtyEight actually did a piece on this which shows just how silly some peoples geographic conceptions are.

43% believed Texas was not a Southern State, while only around 50% said that Virginia, Kentucky, and fucking Arkansas were southern.

That's just mental.

So I would much rather rely on the factually definitions used by the US government in policy making, and census taking, rather than the entirely nebulous concepts of shared culture and popular conception.

And I'd rather not trust the government on their dodgy definitions of a lot of shit, Maryland and Delaware are not Southern states, and the concept of shared culture and popular conception should matter more in this case than whatever BS the government thinks.

By that logic though half the population of the south thinks that Arkansas is not Southern.

So not even southerners can really agree on what constitutes southern.

[Thermodolia]

Your link doesn't work. Delaware is definitely not southern, geographically or otherwise.

Try this one.

The US Census Bureau considers Delaware to be a southern state.

It may not be "southern" in the cultural or political sense, but it is, geographically, southern.

Cultural and political matter more than geographical in the US.

[Valrifell]

Delaware is a geographically southern state?

According to the US Government, yes. The Census Bureau defines southern as Delware, West Virginia, Virginia, the Carolinas, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, and Oklahoma.

Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon are rolling in their graves.

[Thermodolia]

Well, the U.S. Census Bureau is wrong.

According to?

I dont think individuals get to decide these things.

You could certainly say that it's not part of the "Deep South" since that usually refers to those states south of the Carolinas, or if you prefer, you could argue that the true south is only those states that make up the Confederacy, which leaves out Delware and Maryland.

Curiously, if one considers Maryland to be a Southern state, then it's hard to discount Delware as one too. Both are in the same geographic area, both were slave states that voted to remain in the Union.

Maryland is not southern. It’s mid Atlantic.

[Cisairse]

And I'd rather not trust the government on their dodgy definitions of a lot of shit, Maryland and Delaware are not Southern states, and the concept of shared culture and popular conception should matter more in this case than whatever BS the government thinks.

By that logic though half the population of the south thinks that Arkansas is not Southern.

So not even southerners can really agree on what constitutes southern.

You could definitely make the argument that Arkansas, like Oklahoma and Missouri, are not southern but are in fact midwestern.

[Thermodolia]

And I'd rather not trust the government on their dodgy definitions of a lot of shit, Maryland and Delaware are not Southern states, and the concept of shared culture and popular conception should matter more in this case than whatever BS the government thinks.

By that logic though half the population of the south thinks that Arkansas is not Southern.

So not even southerners can really agree on what constitutes southern.

Neither can the US government, as not only do they put Delaware in with the southeast but they also put it in with the northeast

[Valrifell]

Look, the South starts at the Mason-Dixon Line, then follows the Ohio River Basin to the Mississippi, where we'll count states on either side of that boundary as to include Arkansas and Louisiana.

Texas is kind of its own geographic region, Oklahoma is a prairie/plains state and so is Missouri. Glad we got that sorted.

[Thermodolia]

Look, the South starts at the Mason-Dixon Line, then follows the Ohio River Basin to the Mississippi, where we'll count states on either side of that boundary as to include Arkansas and Louisiana.

Texas is kind of its own geographic region, Oklahoma is a prairie/plains state and so is Missouri. Glad we got that sorted.

Maryland isn’t southern. It’s mid-Atlantic. I’d also say that Arkansas is more midwest

[Outer Sparta]

Look, the South starts at the Mason-Dixon Line, then follows the Ohio River Basin to the Mississippi, where we'll count states on either side of that boundary as to include Arkansas and Louisiana.

Texas is kind of its own geographic region, Oklahoma is a prairie/plains state and so is Missouri. Glad we got that sorted.

Indiana and Missouri are in the Midwest but are much closer to the South culturally and politically.

[Zurkerx]

I mean, Biden does venture out, he just doesn't campaign around the entire country. But I seriously doubt he goes that far-left. I will warn you though: I wouldn't underestimate Biden. He excels at one-on-one debates.



Trump is a well-defined figure: almost everyone has an opinion of him; as does Biden to a lesser extent. This leaves fewer undecided/third party voters, especially in an election that matters this year. We also need to take into account that polling has adjusted and thus is more accurate than 2016. Biden's stable lead, which averages 8 points, should be concerning for the Trump Campaign: they do better with volatility.

I wasn’t comparing it to 2016, but elections in general. Even in other elections that involve incumbents and established figures there is more give and take during the election cycle. I don’t think it’s that we know these two as much as Trump has hardened the lines. He has forced a situation where there really is no fence to sit on. You’re either down with the disturbing shit or you’re not.

Ooh, I see now. Yes, in that regards,this election's polling is one of the most stable in the modern era despite being a volatile year. But yeah, Trump's actions have surely forced most to either jump on one side or the other.

[Cisairse]

Let's just call the South the states that joined the Confederacy and leave it at that.

Kentucky and West Virginia don't get a region.

[Aureumterra]

Hey it’s August! Time to start stocking up on popcorn to watch the debates.

This year it’s possibly the most entertaining one yet, one one hand we have an old white possible rapist with dementia and on the other hand… an old white possible rapist with dementia!

I find it odd how women suddenly remember events from decades ago when a dude becomes politically relevant

[Neutraligon]

Whatever universe the United States Census Bureau lives in.

It is southern geographically, though, much like Maryland, is not often remembered as such.

Your link doesn't work. Delaware is definitely not southern, geographically or otherwise.

The Mason-Dixon line is considered the divide between North and South.

[Cisairse]

Based on this week's polling, I've put together what I believe the electoral map would look like if the election were held today.



Florida, Texas, and Georga have either inconsistent polling or, in Florida's case, have actually polled as a perfect tie. The most interesting point here is that Ohio has moved from a decently solid red state straight into Biden's column: Despite polling as high as Trump +8 only a week ago, every single poll taken in August has shown Biden leading, including the Zogby poll released today.

[United States of Devonta]

Based on this week's polling, I've put together what I believe the electoral map would look like if the election were held today.

(Image)

Florida, Texas, and Georga have either inconsistent polling or, in Florida's case, have actually polled as a perfect tie. The most interesting point here is that Ohio has moved from a decently solid red state straight into Biden's column: Despite polling as high as Trump +8 only a week ago, every single poll taken in August has shown Biden leading, including the Zogby poll released today.

Hey, no toss-ups!! Cop out!

[Shrillland]

Based on this week's polling, I've put together what I believe the electoral map would look like if the election were held today.

(Image)

Florida, Texas, and Georga have either inconsistent polling or, in Florida's case, have actually polled as a perfect tie. The most interesting point here is that Ohio has moved from a decently solid red state straight into Biden's column: Despite polling as high as Trump +8 only a week ago, every single poll taken in August has shown Biden leading, including the Zogby poll released today.

Hey, no toss-ups!! Cop out!

At the moment, I would put both Georgia and Florida into Biden's count and Texas into Trump's(as close as it is, I don't yet think this is the year for Texas to flip). That's still a respectable 369-169 for Biden...if Trump doesn't decide to commit national suicide.

[United States of Devonta]

Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak. But she did lead by more in certain key states.

The States Clinton led by wider margins at this point include Michigan, PA, and WI. However, she never garnished around 50% and the reason for these smaller margins are because pollsters likely adjusted to accommodate Trump's base. Overall, Biden is better positioned to win 270+ currently than Clinton was at this point though we should note that things can change now and November.

People haven't said this enough: Clinton was experiencing a convention bump at this time in 2016. Biden hasn't even chosen a VP or had the Democratic Convention yet! Both usually give bumps. If im Biden, I'm feeling good right now.

[United States of Devonta]

Hey, no toss-ups!! Cop out!

At the moment, I would put both Georgia and Florida into Biden's count and Texas into Trump's(as close as it is, I don't yet think this is the year for Texas to flip). That's still a respectable 369-169 for Biden...if Trump doesn't decide to commit national suicide.

Or Biden... No one can snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory like a Democrat.

But I tend to agree, but I'd make Georgia tilt-red and NC maybe tilt-D or tilt-R.

[Cisairse]

Based on this week's polling, I've put together what I believe the electoral map would look like if the election were held today.

(Image)

Florida, Texas, and Georga have either inconsistent polling or, in Florida's case, have actually polled as a perfect tie. The most interesting point here is that Ohio has moved from a decently solid red state straight into Biden's column: Despite polling as high as Trump +8 only a week ago, every single poll taken in August has shown Biden leading, including the Zogby poll released today.

Hey, no toss-ups!! Cop out!

If you put a gun to my head and said I had to call those states, I would put Florida in Biden's column, Texas in Trump's, and tell you to pull the trigger over Georgia.