2020 US General Election Thread V: Pandemic Postpones Polls

[ArenaC]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

[Shrillland]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

Alas, Acela Tuesday isn't until April 28, so it should be all but decided by then, I think.

EDIT: For your viewing pleasure, there is now a list of upcoming primaries in the OP complete with each state's delegate numbers.

[United States of Devonta]

So Bernie Sanders just did this at his town hall and brought receipts

And this dropped minutes ago.

[Outer Sparta]

So Bernie Sanders just did this at his town hall and brought receipts

And this dropped minutes ago.

I loved that he brought those receipts on stage and even anticipated that question of "how will you pay for your plans" to come up.

[United States of Devonta]

So Bernie Sanders just did this at his town hall and brought receipts

And this dropped minutes ago.

I loved that he brought those receipts on stage and even anticipated that question of "how will you pay for your plans" to come up.

It was good. He's doing pretty good rn.

He didn't have a good answer on 60 minutes, but it seems his staffers came together and fixed it. Just in time for the debate too.

[Saturna1ia]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

Speaking of, is anyone else of the opinion that all roads lead to Pennsylvania in the upcoming General Election?
Florida has more delegates of course, but I think it it will be surpassed in importance by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If they could only pick one, which state should Trump and the Democratic nominee put the most time and resources in?

[Outer Sparta]

I loved that he brought those receipts on stage and even anticipated that question of "how will you pay for your plans" to come up.

It was good. He's doing pretty good rn.

He didn't have a good answer on 60 minutes, but it seems his staffers came together and fixed it. Just in time for the debate too.

Obviously you can't go over every detail of your plans in a short town hall, but showing the audience that you got your entire plans set up on your website is indeed a good move.

[Shrillland]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

Speaking of, is anyone else of the opinion that all roads lead to Pennsylvania in the upcoming General Election?
Florida has more delegates of course, but I think it it will be surpassed in importance by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If they could only pick one, which state should Trump and the Democratic nominee put the most time and resources in?

Yes, I would say Pennsylvania as well. As close as the electoral vote will be, a win in Pennsylvania will be critical for him to stay in.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

And this dropped minutes ago.

"Creating a 4 percent income-based premium paid by employees, exempting the first $29,000 in income for a family of four."

But presumably from a lower threshold for a family of 2 or a single earner. It's quite low imo ... but exempting means the effective rate will still be very low for medium incomes. Eg 2% effective at $58K

"Imposing a 7.5 percent income-based premium paid by employers, exempting the first $1 million in payroll to protect small businesses."

This bothers me more. "Payroll tax is a tax on jobs" I can hear Trump say.

"Raising the top marginal income tax rate to 52% on income over $10 million"

While I'm OK with it, 50% is a bad number. People respond badly to it even if it's not them being taxed.

"Replacing the cap on the state and local tax deduction with an overall dollar cap of $50,000 for a married couple on all itemized deductions."

I don't understand this.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

Speaking of, is anyone else of the opinion that all roads lead to Pennsylvania in the upcoming General Election?
Florida has more delegates of course, but I think it it will be surpassed in importance by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If they could only pick one, which state should Trump and the Democratic nominee put the most time and resources in?

Pennsylvania as you said. But Wisconsin needs Michigan as well, my second priority after PA would be Florida.

[Zurkerx]

Speaking of, is anyone else of the opinion that all roads lead to Pennsylvania in the upcoming General Election?
Florida has more delegates of course, but I think it it will be surpassed in importance by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If they could only pick one, which state should Trump and the Democratic nominee put the most time and resources in?

Yes, I would say Pennsylvania as well. As close as the electoral vote will be, a win in Pennsylvania will be critical for him to stay in.

If he wins Pennsylvania, I think it's safe to say he'll be re-elected, even if Democrats do take back Wisconsin and Michigan. In my opinion, the likes of Ohio, Iowa, and Florida are out of their reach, especially for someone like Sanders though this is more for Florida than anything. They'll need to win PA, MI, and WI back if they have a chance to win.

[Vetalia]

"Replacing the cap on the state and local tax deduction with an overall dollar cap of $50,000 for a married couple on all itemized deductions."[/tab]

I don't understand this.

This one is pretty straightforward; itemized deductions are a slew of personal expenses you can deduct for various reasons, state and local taxes being one of them. Capping them at $50,000 means the maximum deduction would be $50,000 across the board irrespective of source.

Overall, I think Bernie's plan is a solid one aside from the concept of a "wealth tax"; I am strongly opposed to any tax that isn't based on income, including property taxes, because they are taxing the principal rather than the production from the property; e.g., someone could end up being taxed more than the income from the asset generates (which itself is taxed). I would especially encourage scrapping any of the measures involving a wealth tax because it will lead to nothing other than capital flight.

I am also concerned about the Green New Deal taxes; I support removing any subsidies for fossil fuels but these sound like punitive taxes which I also disagree with.

[Teachian]

Kids these days... I swear, all you whippersnappers know how to do is to wreck things. Serve you right if you find yourselves living among the ruins.

Before I start, even though I'm pretty new to NSG, a lot of your posts have come off as thoughtful and respectful, which I appreciate. I also know this part of your post has been pointed out a few times already so while I really hope this isn't coming off as dog piling, but I had to respond.

As a 20-year old uni student, I already feel like I'm living in ruins, or at least ruins-in-the-making. That whole "you can be whoever you want to be" and "the world's becoming a better place" from the early 2000s and pre-2008 younger generations like mine heard will probably haunt a lot of us for the rest of ours lives. And while I think I relatively lucked out with my college debt, but it'll still be a major financial consideration for decades to come, and I'll still be on worse footing than any generation to earn a degree before me. I don't expect to ever touch a cent I put into social security, and I'm willing to bet my generation will be making up for the tax cuts and underfunded programs of today by paying more for it tomorrow, all while getting less out of the system. I don't have any real gripes with an "establishment", but I feel the government's actions are so detached from the reality for many like me that we won't ever be acknowledged as a constituency until we force them to; meanwhile, corporations and the rich are first in line for policy. And between the environment and world affairs, we're making too many short-term goals with immediate gratification over the painful but necessary long-term ones.

Long story short, I don't feel safe in the status quo, or that bad change is the only enemy while no change is sunshine and rainbows. That doesn't automatically make me right about anything, or that everyone should see it my way. But it's the reason why so many people in democratic forums like the Democratic primary are siding with a change candidate, just like many others are safe with a moderate one. I don't consider myself a maximalist, or even that radical, but a president with a (D) next to their name doesn't automatically solve things for me, especially if their campaign was based avoiding too much change, bad or good. In no way does that mean you need to like Sanders, and I really do respect that you will. But I've got decades left on this planet, barring me doing anything stupid or tragic, and if I'm living in ruins years from now, it's because I wouldn't or couldn't fix what was already there.

That's why people like me are where we are.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

"Replacing the cap on the state and local tax deduction with an overall dollar cap of $50,000 for a married couple on all itemized deductions."[/tab]

I don't understand this.

This one is pretty straightforward; itemized deductions are a slew of personal expenses you can deduct for various reasons, state and local taxes being one of them. Capping them at $50,000 means the maximum deduction would be $50,000 across the board irrespective of source.

So it would include Mortgage Interest Deduction (as I understand, the biggest by far in foregone revenue).

I imagine to hit this cap a family would need income over $130K or so ..?

Overall, I think Bernie's plan is a solid one aside from the concept of a "wealth tax"; I am strongly opposed to any tax that isn't based on income, including property taxes, because they are taxing the principal rather than the production from the property; e.g., someone could end up being taxed more than the income from the asset generates (which itself is taxed). I would especially encourage scrapping any of the measures involving a wealth tax because it will lead to nothing other than capital flight.

I am also concerned about the Green New Deal taxes; I support removing any subsidies for fossil fuels but these sound like punitive taxes which I also disagree with.

A consistent Emissions Tax would be preferable, but I'm guessing it would also hit ranchers and dairy farmers.

"Generating $6.4 trillion in revenue from the wholesale of energy produced by the regional Power Marketing Administrations. This revenue will be collected from 2023-2035, and after 2035 electricity will be virtually free, aside from operations and maintenance costs"

Taxing electricity while at the same time attempting a massive rollout of new renewables seems counterproductive.

[Albrenia]

Gonna be some weird times in the US to come, no matter who wins this next election. Would be fun to see how things would go with someone like Sanders in charge, in such stark contrast to the Trump years. I'm still expecting Trump to win, but a man can dream.

[Vetalia]

So it would include Mortgage Interest Deduction (as I understand, the biggest by far in foregone revenue).

I imagine to hit this cap a family would need income over $130K or so ..?

Exactly. You'd need a lot more than an income of $130k to hit an $50k cap in itemized deductions as the expenses paid are after-tax, not pre-tax.

A consistent Emissions Tax would be preferable, but I'm guessing it would also hit ranchers and dairy farmers.

"Generating $6.4 trillion in revenue from the wholesale of energy produced by the regional Power Marketing Administrations. This revenue will be collected from 2023-2035, and after 2035 electricity will be virtually free, aside from operations and maintenance costs"

Taxing electricity while at the same time attempting a massive rollout of new renewables seems counterproductive.

This one I don't really understand, are the PMAs going to hand over all income in excess of operating costs to pay for this? What about unexpected maintenance needs and capital improvements?

[New Rogernomics]

There are four possible outcomes IMO:

1. Bernie wins the nomination, but fails to win over the folks that still blame him for Clinton losing in 2016, and are just afraid of anyone who isn't a died-blue centralist. If he were smart he would pick either Warren or Buttigieg to run with him, in an attempt to win back some of the center that might be considering staying home in 2020.

2. Bernie is denied the nomination by the delegates, causing a revolt among his supporters, with either Buttigieg or Bloomberg being given the delegates in the convention, even if he wins the 'popular vote'. This scenario may be better for Trump than the first, as it would de-energize the more left of the base and Bernie supporters might just outright leave the Democratic party.

3. Buttigieg wins the nomination through getting the most delegates, or as a result of some scandal/issue that sinks Bernie. This might be the best scenario of Bernie losing, as it won't come off as rigging. But with no real left support, he'd be smart to make Bernie his running mate if possible, to mitigate some of the pushback from being a centralist who doesn't lean left enough for many.

Unfortunately, I don't see Buttigieg or Bernie winning against Trump, even if it is a tight race. The worst scenario I don't mention is Bloomberg winning and tagging Hillary as a running mate. I would be pleasantly surprised if that isn't the case, though Trump is a mud-monster with near unanimous support among his party, whereas Democrats are deeply divided between two camps, which isn't good coming up to a general election - as a divided party has been disastrous for Democrats in the past.

[Kruiven]

does Pennsylvania have a role in deciding who gets the nom or are we too late for that

Speaking of, is anyone else of the opinion that all roads lead to Pennsylvania in the upcoming General Election?
Florida has more delegates of course, but I think it it will be surpassed in importance by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If they could only pick one, which state should Trump and the Democratic nominee put the most time and resources in?

I think Florida is going Trump regardless of the nominee, Florida is a state Dems pour tons of money into and it always ends up being decided by like 2% one way or another and usually it slips away from Dems.
I think Pennsylvania and Michigan are flipping back to Dems just between general polls and 2018 midterm results, Wisconsin is going to be the hard one to get back on the Dem side.
As for other swingy states I don't know about NC, AZ, or GA. I feel like OH and IA depend on nominee.

[Kruiven]

So Bernie Sanders just did this at his town hall and brought receipts

And this dropped minutes ago.

Bernie whips out receipts live on CNN.

[Bienenhalde]

The infamous Max Boot declares a Bernie nomination means Trump for sure.


This means in reality an absolutely Bernie blow out victory because Max Boot is wrong on everything and possibly the dumbest man in DC.

They aren't really worried about bernie losing. Considering what chris Matthew's told people (vote for trump over bernie), they're afraid of him winning the most

I would vote for a third-party candidate before voting for either Trump or Bernie.

[Zhongshanville]

So Bernie Sanders just did this at his town hall and brought receipts

And this dropped minutes ago.

Bernie whips out receipts live on CNN.

CNN really trying desperately to appeal to people with proclivities for fiscal responsibility. LOL!

[Vetalia]

They aren't really worried about bernie losing. Considering what chris Matthew's told people (vote for trump over bernie), they're afraid of him winning the most

I would vote for a third-party candidate before voting for either Trump or Bernie.

Honestly, as long as both neoconservatives and neoliberals are consigned to the dustbin of history I think we win as a species.

[Bienenhalde]

Right wing Democrats are now openly anti-literacy apparently? What a time to be alive.

If I told you Nazi Germany had some of the first anti-smoking programs, would that mean anti-smoking programs are bad?

Of course not. But considering the bad stuff that the Nazis did, you probably shouldn't be praising them just because they had anti-smoking programs.

[Kruiven]

Bernie whips out receipts live on CNN.

CNN really trying desperately to appeal to people with proclivities for fiscal responsibility. LOL!

Which is funny since nobody asks how we're gonna pay for wars. And the fact that Trump's lovely tax cut for the wealthy has murdered the deficit. Republicans continuing the trend of expanding the deficit way more than Democrats, so sad.

[United States of Devonta]

If I told you Nazi Germany had some of the first anti-smoking programs, would that mean anti-smoking programs are bad?

Of course not. But considering the bad stuff that the Nazis did, you probably shouldn't be praising them just because they had anti-smoking programs.

Anti- smoking programs are good. And saying a regime is evil and authoritarian in the same statement isn't praising. Its a good distinction, especially if your countries don't have said successful programs.

For example, what If I hated the Nazis and proposed a anti-smoking program (hmm lets say one for our youth called, Red Ribbon Week, see what I did there ) and it worked well in Nazi Germany, would that mean that anti-smoking policies shoulden't be implemented?