2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Zurkerx]

Damn, with 37% in, Buttigieg is just under 4 points from Sanders. He needs to be taken seriously. I'll give credit to the voters for not picking someone from the top three: they truly believe their candidate is the best.

[The Wasatch]

The Bernie Bros and MAGA Nation are very similar in their style, love of conspiracies, and bullish approach. Both Trump and Sanders rail against the "elite," and, while Sanders is more justified (there are many of excessive and unfair wealth in the U.S.,) fear of the perceived "elite" is a very dangerous thing to all Americans. Both candidates are geriatric, each likely having suffered a stroke. Sanders policies are impossible without a Democratic Senate (which I dearly hope for,) unless we plan to extend presidential power even further. Like Trump, Sanders has a love of antidemocratic authoritarians, having praised the USSR on his honeymoon there. Sanders has more baggage than most other candidates too, having cosponsored a bill to dump nuclear waste in a poor, largely Hispanic Texan community largely because it was cheap and they could and once writing a story in which a victim enjoys being raped. Don't get me wrong, I'd vote for him anytime against Trump, but he is too close to Trump in style and age than I am comfortable with.

Cultish following applies to every politician, not just Sanders and Trump

Yes. However, with Sanders and especially Trump, the cultish following appears to be the defining feature of their support. There aren't really many Klobuchar or Warren supporters sending death threats or spreading conspiracies about their opposition. Sanders, unlike Trump, does not encourage these iniquities. However, he also has yet to discourage them, which he easily could do.

[Gormwood]

Cultish following applies to every politician, not just Sanders and Trump

Yes. However, with Sanders and especially Trump, the cultish following appears to be the defining feature of their support. There aren't really many Klobuchar or Warren supporters sending death threats or spreading conspiracies about their opposition. Sanders, unlike Trump, does not encourage these iniquities. However, he also has yet to discourage them, which he easily could do.

Except there's the problem of Bernier Than Thous, who tend to think they know what's good for him better than he does.

[Corrian]

This race is currently narrowing a lot, but I think Bernie will still manage to squeak out the win.

[Shrillland]

Damn, with 37% in, Buttigieg is just under 4 points from Sanders. He needs to be taken seriously. I'll give credit to the voters for not picking someone from the top three: they truly believe their candidate is the best.

37%? Where are you getting your figures? I'm at the NY Times and they're at 27%.

[Zurkerx]

Damn, with 37% in, Buttigieg is just under 4 points from Sanders. He needs to be taken seriously. I'll give credit to the voters for not picking someone from the top three: they truly believe their candidate is the best.

37%? Where are you getting your figures? I'm at the NY Times and they're at 27%.

I'm watching CNN right now. They have it at 39% right now so it seems results are trickling in slower in some trackers then others.

Oh, and Warren is pushing a positive message I see. Well, at least she's doing something good on that. Looks I'm wrong in that regard for dropping out: my bold prediction is wrong.

[Corrian]

On my end its just a 2% margin.

[Cannot think of a name]

Damn, with 37% in, Buttigieg is just under 4 points from Sanders. He needs to be taken seriously. I'll give credit to the voters for not picking someone from the top three: they truly believe their candidate is the best.

37%? Where are you getting your figures? I'm at the NY Times and they're at 27%.

538s tracker is at 40% reporting.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

You called her dropping out before, you'll be held to that so you might as well repeat it.

The voters she wants don't seem to have gone to Sanders, that must be particularly discouraging. I and others have brought up the possibility of Warren going all the way to the convention, gathering a few votes Sanders can't get even at the cost of splitting his vote, then directing her delegates to Sanders. It's only worth it if she gets votes he can't get, and splitting the vote is a high price to pay (keeps Sanders from getting up momentum). Campaigns have internal polling for this sort of thing, they don't want the others to know.

Anyway, any further results like this where she takes a non-negligible share of the vote but gets few (or no) delegates, will crash the convention kingmaker strategy completely. Say she kept 9% throughout but got 1% of the delegates, it's total disaster for her and Bernie.

I'm starting to thoroughly hate the 15% cutoff, I'm sure it's to narrow the field, but it's just unfair. Delegates should be in proportion to votes of the people.

Oh, I'll stick to my bold prediction and frankly, I don't care if I'm wrong on it: I tend to be on these kind of things. But NH was her only hope of rebounding, that won't happen now. With her "poor" showing here, I don't see people funding her campaign and here cash fund will dry up.

But I do agree: it should be a proportional election though minus the Delegates.

Oh and Bennet is out!

I made a prediction before Iowa, that Warren would have a terrible caucus and drop out before NH. I was wrong.

What sometimes happens when a prediction goes wrong is that person swings the other way. Not me. I'm now with "she will have nothing but terrible results and drop out before Super Tues". Let's see how many times I can be wrong before someone notices!

Proportional election with transferable vote and no Delegates. You need either ballots (with second choices etc) or Delegates, otherwise the Convention would need to go with plurality winner. And in a year with a lot of candidates the plurality winner might be the choice of a quite small minority of voters. It could be a Dixiecrat! All the others would have no way to combine and stop them.

[Senkaku]

What??

The Bernie Bros and MAGA Nation are very similar in their style, love of conspiracies, and bullish approach.

elaborate on what and who the "bernie bros" are and why whatever antics you accuse them of are valid criticisms of their candidate himself

Both Trump and Sanders rail against the "elite," and, while Sanders is more justified (there are many of excessive and unfair wealth in the U.S.,) fear of the perceived "elite" is a very dangerous thing to all Americans.

Why (especially if you acknowledge he has justification)?

Both candidates are geriatric, each likely having suffered a stroke.

"bernie bros and trump supporters love conspiracies"
"also, i will now assert with zero evidence that trump and bernie have both had strokes"

Sanders policies are impossible without a Democratic Senate (which I dearly hope for,) unless we plan to extend presidential power even further.

And?

Like Trump, Sanders has a love of antidemocratic authoritarians, having praised the USSR on his honeymoon there.

ah yes, Bernie going to Gorbachev's Russia and saying nice things as he tried to establish Yaroslavl as Burlington's sister city is exactly the same as Trump saying Kim Jong-un, Putin, and MBS are great guys who and kissing up to authoritarian governments the world over in material ways (like easing sanctions, enabling corruption, and selling weapons)

Sanders has more baggage than most other candidates too, having cosponsored a bill to dump nuclear waste in a poor, largely Hispanic Texan community largely because it was cheap and they could and once writing a story in which a victim enjoys being raped.

...by the standards of most of the Democratic candidates, that's a squeaky-clean record lol

Don't get me wrong, I'd vote for him anytime against Trump, but he is too close to Trump in style and age than I am comfortable with.

Well, whatever, as long as you'll vote to him if it's down to the two of them I'll lay off I guess, but this is all still a bunch of bullshit lol

[United States of Devonta]

Damn, with 37% in, Buttigieg is just under 4 points from Sanders. He needs to be taken seriously. I'll give credit to the voters for not picking someone from the top three: they truly believe their candidate is the best.

Interesting to see how he does in more diverse states. Warren is staying in, Klob is announcing a 7-digit ad buy in Nevada.

They will continue to split each others votes.

[Corrian]

I like the New York Times map better but their numbers seem behind.

[Corrian]

Oh there we go, I found a bit better one, but still only 30% reporting.

[The Wasatch]

The Bernie Bros and MAGA Nation are very similar in their style, love of conspiracies, and bullish approach.

elaborate on what and who the "bernie bros" are and why whatever antics you accuse them of are valid criticisms of their candidate himself

Both Trump and Sanders rail against the "elite," and, while Sanders is more justified (there are many of excessive and unfair wealth in the U.S.,) fear of the perceived "elite" is a very dangerous thing to all Americans.

Why (especially if you acknowledge he has justification)?

Both candidates are geriatric, each likely having suffered a stroke.

"bernie bros and trump supporters love conspiracies"
"also, i will now assert with zero evidence that trump and bernie have both had strokes"

Sanders policies are impossible without a Democratic Senate (which I dearly hope for,) unless we plan to extend presidential power even further.

And?

Like Trump, Sanders has a love of antidemocratic authoritarians, having praised the USSR on his honeymoon there.

ah yes, Bernie going to Gorbachev's Russia and saying nice things as he tried to establish Yaroslavl as Burlington's sister city is exactly the same as Trump saying Kim Jong-un, Putin, and MBS are great guys who and kissing up to authoritarian governments the world over in material ways (like easing sanctions, enabling corruption, and selling weapons)

Sanders has more baggage than most other candidates too, having cosponsored a bill to dump nuclear waste in a poor, largely Hispanic Texan community largely because it was cheap and they could and once writing a story in which a victim enjoys being raped.

...by the standards of most of the Democratic candidates, that's a squeaky-clean record lol

Don't get me wrong, I'd vote for him anytime against Trump, but he is too close to Trump in style and age than I am comfortable with.

Well, whatever, as long as you'll vote to him if it's down to the two of them I'll lay off I guess, but this is all still a bunch of bullshit lol

Sanders is the most popular candidate on 4chan and other toxic places. Only a portion of his supporters are toxic, but his toxic supporters are rivaled only by Trump's: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opin ... -bros.html
Fear of any demographic is a dangerous game to play. Fear of the aristocracy, while justified, led to the Reign of Terror. Fear of communists led to the U.S. government to lock up liberals of all sort. We ought all be careful of any ideology that blames societies problems on any demographic or group.
Bernie's stroke: not a conspiracy, but a public fact: https://www.heart.org/en/news/2019/10/0 ... octors-say
If we hope to make any progress, we will need a candidate who is more pragmatic, but just as idealistic, such as just about any of the other candidates except for a couple.
Support of the USSR, which Sanders clearly displayed by honeymooning there (not even just visiting) is dangerous not because they were communist, but because they were undemocratic. Just as with Trump, you can't have the leader of the free world supporting dictators.
In conclusion, there is extreme reason to be apprehensive about Sanders. That said, if he's the Democratic candidate, I'd certainly vote for him as the only viable option that isn't Trump.

[Zurkerx]

Oh, I'll stick to my bold prediction and frankly, I don't care if I'm wrong on it: I tend to be on these kind of things. But NH was her only hope of rebounding, that won't happen now. With her "poor" showing here, I don't see people funding her campaign and here cash fund will dry up.

But I do agree: it should be a proportional election though minus the Delegates.

Oh and Bennet is out!

I made a prediction before Iowa, that Warren would have a terrible caucus and drop out before NH. I was wrong.

What sometimes happens when a prediction goes wrong is that person swings the other way. Not me. I'm now with "she will have nothing but terrible results and drop out before Super Tues". Let's see how many times I can be wrong before someone notices!

Proportional election with transferable vote and no Delegates. You need either ballots (with second choices etc) or Delegates, otherwise the Convention would need to go with plurality winner. And in a year with a lot of candidates the plurality winner might be the choice of a quite small minority of voters. It could be a Dixiecrat! All the others would have no way to combine and stop them.

I'm sure we're both going to be wrong in that case but, eh, let bygones be bygones.

Hmm, a rank voting system would easily solve that problem though the complexity of such a system maybe too much for Americans.

[Mushet]

elaborate on what and who the "bernie bros" are and why whatever antics you accuse them of are valid criticisms of their candidate himself

Why (especially if you acknowledge he has justification)?

"bernie bros and trump supporters love conspiracies"
"also, i will now assert with zero evidence that trump and bernie have both had strokes"

And?

ah yes, Bernie going to Gorbachev's Russia and saying nice things as he tried to establish Yaroslavl as Burlington's sister city is exactly the same as Trump saying Kim Jong-un, Putin, and MBS are great guys who and kissing up to authoritarian governments the world over in material ways (like easing sanctions, enabling corruption, and selling weapons)

...by the standards of most of the Democratic candidates, that's a squeaky-clean record lol

Well, whatever, as long as you'll vote to him if it's down to the two of them I'll lay off I guess, but this is all still a bunch of bullshit lol

Sanders is the most popular candidate on 4chan and other toxic places. Only a portion of his supporters are toxic, but his toxic supporters are rivaled only by Trump's: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opin ... -bros.html
Fear of any demographic is a dangerous game to play. Fear of the aristocracy, while justified, led to the Reign of Terror. Fear of communists led to the U.S. government to lock up liberals of all sort. We ought all be careful of any ideology that blames societies problems on any demographic or group.
Bernie's stroke: not a conspiracy, but a public fact: https://www.heart.org/en/news/2019/10/0 ... octors-say
If we hope to make any progress, we will need a candidate who is more pragmatic, but just as idealistic, such as just about any of the other candidates except for a couple.
Support of the USSR, which Sanders clearly displayed by honeymooning there (not even just visiting) is dangerous not because they were communist, but because they were undemocratic. Just as with Trump, you can't have the leader of the free world supporting dictators.
In conclusion, there is extreme reason to be apprehensive about Sanders. That said, if he's the Democratic candidate, I'd certainly vote for him as the only viable option that isn't Trump.

I may not go there as often as I used to but I'm almost certain Sanders is not too popular on 4chan, I saw more Yang shilling (RIP).

[Corrian]

I think Yang either needs to run for a local election, or he needs to be in someone's cabinet position.

[South Odreria 2]

Yang quits? Too bad. Shout-out to a real one.

[The South Falls]

I think Yang either needs to run for a local election, or he needs to be in someone's cabinet position.

Yang would be a very good representative or senator. A firebrand that's able to garner some sort of recognition in whatever house he chooses to run in, prior to running for president. He doesn't have the base of support currently that one needs to run for president.

[Zurkerx]

Looks like Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be the only ones to get delegates; the rest won't. Given it's a State with only 24, I wonder how they'll split it. Maybe 10, 8, and 6?

[Corrian]

I was actually tempted to vote for Yang. Not even joking, I had it as a thought. But I knew he'd likely drop out before I get to vote. Which is exactly the case.

[Shrillland]

Looks like Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be the only ones to get delegates; the rest won't. Given it's a State with only 24, I wonder how they'll split it. Maybe 10, 8, and 6?

That's how it looks to me as well given the proportions.

[The South Falls]

Looks like Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be the only ones to get delegates; the rest won't. Given it's a State with only 24, I wonder how they'll split it. Maybe 10, 8, and 6?

The Klobuchar train has been absolutely steaming down the track as of late. Do you think that this result will be indicative of further successes in the future?

[Senkaku]

elaborate on what and who the "bernie bros" are and why whatever antics you accuse them of are valid criticisms of their candidate himself

Why (especially if you acknowledge he has justification)?

"bernie bros and trump supporters love conspiracies"
"also, i will now assert with zero evidence that trump and bernie have both had strokes"

And?

ah yes, Bernie going to Gorbachev's Russia and saying nice things as he tried to establish Yaroslavl as Burlington's sister city is exactly the same as Trump saying Kim Jong-un, Putin, and MBS are great guys who and kissing up to authoritarian governments the world over in material ways (like easing sanctions, enabling corruption, and selling weapons)

...by the standards of most of the Democratic candidates, that's a squeaky-clean record lol

Well, whatever, as long as you'll vote to him if it's down to the two of them I'll lay off I guess, but this is all still a bunch of bullshit lol

Sanders is the most popular candidate on 4chan and other toxic places. Only a portion of his supporters are toxic, but his toxic supporters are rivaled only by Trump's: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opin ... -bros.html

...you're citing a Bret Stephens op-ed as a source...?

Fear of any demographic is a dangerous game to play. Fear of the aristocracy, while justified, led to the Reign of Terror.

No, hatred of the aristocracy's oppression of the peasantry led to the Revolution, and political disagreements among revolutionaries led to the Reign of Terror. Fear of the aristocracy kept the ancien regime in power for centuries.

Fear of communists led to the U.S. government to lock up liberals of all sort. We ought all be careful of any ideology that blames societies problems on any demographic or group.

Your 18th-century-France comparison was more apt. The super-rich should probably come around to the fact that Bernie may be the best thing for them- a political revolution at the ballot box this year is a lot better than a military one in the streets in a few decades, which is the path they seem to be leading the country down for some time now. Far better to let a wealthy senator raise their taxes a bit and do some social spending, eh?

Bernie's stroke: not a conspiracy, but a public fact: https://www.heart.org/en/news/2019/10/0 ... octors-say

...you know strokes and heart attacks are different things...? And that he's gotten extensive reports from doctors saying he's recovered from the heart attack...?

If we hope to make any progress, we will need a candidate who is more pragmatic, but just as idealistic, such as just about any of the other candidates except for a couple.

...who is "more pragmatic, but just as idealistic" as Bernie, to your mind?

Support of the USSR, which Sanders clearly displayed by honeymooning there (not even just visiting) is dangerous not because they were communist, but because they were undemocratic. Just as with Trump, you can't have the leader of the free world supporting dictators.

He didn't support their undemocratic political system at any point- and even if he had, he certainly isn't saying anything of that sort now, as Trump is.

[Mushet]

I think Yang either needs to run for a local election, or he needs to be in someone's cabinet position.

Yang would be a very good representative or senator. A firebrand that's able to garner some sort of recognition in whatever house he chooses to run in, prior to running for president. He doesn't have the base of support currently that one needs to run for president.

Firebrand? Haven't seen it.

I remember in an interview him saying that when the stage thins enough he's gonna start getting mean, that I wanted to see