Latin America General : Corona Carnaval

[Shrillland]

Chile's regional elections and the Constitutional Convention election have been postponed to May 15-16 due to the severe surge on COVID cases

[Kowani]

Argentina's President Alberto Fernández has tested positive for COVID-19

[Kilobugya]

Argentina's President Alberto Fernández has tested positive for COVID-19

Yep saw that... all my wishes of prompt healing to him. I thought he was vaccinated by now, but it seems (unlike some others...) he didn't grant himself priority on the doses, using them on the most vulnerable instead.

[Kowani]

Yep saw that... all my wishes of prompt healing to him. I thought he was vaccinated by now, but it seems (unlike some others...) he didn't grant himself priority on the doses, using them on the most vulnerable instead.

he got the first dose back in january, though i'm unaware of how long the proper wait time is between Sputnik doses

[Kilobugya]

Yep saw that... all my wishes of prompt healing to him. I thought he was vaccinated by now, but it seems (unlike some others...) he didn't grant himself priority on the doses, using them on the most vulnerable instead.

he got the first dose back in january, though i'm unaware of how long the proper wait time is between Sputnik doses

Oh. Wikipedia says 21 days. So he should have had two doses. But then Sputnik only grants a 90% protection against getting the disease itself. But even if you do get it, it's usually in a much milder form, so I guess Alberto Fernandez will be fine.

[Shrillland]

Now then, a little late, but here's my take on Sunday.

Ecuador: After Yaku Perez launched a hell of a stink over the results even going so far as to support military intervention, it's boiling down to Guillermo Lasso on the right and Andres Arauz on the elft. I did a profile of them several pages back, which I'll resurface:

Union for Hope(UNES) - Andrés Arauz and Carlos Rabascall(Left Wing)

Arauz was educated in both Ecuador and the United States, holding degrees from the University of Michigan and the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences(FLASCO). During Correa's presidency, he served as Coordinating Minister for Knowledge and Human Talent, which was an umbrella ministry that included the education, culture, and science & technology ministries in its portfolio. In 2017, Moreno dissolved the coordinating ministry and made the three departments separate entities again, putting Arauz out of a job. He would found the Dollarisation Observatory, an organisation opposed to Ecuador's dollarisation which took place 20 years ago and call for a return to the Sucre. He was nominated by UNES for the presidency in August of 2020, initially planning for Correa to be his VP. The CNE(Electoral Commission) shot this down because (A), Correa has 29 outstanding corruption charges against him, (B), he can't run for VP since he isn't qualifies to be President anymore, and (C), Correa moved to Belgium and still lives there, disqualifying him further.

In his place, Arauz chose Carlos Rabascall, who was born without one leg as a result of Thalidomide taken before his birth. That hasn't stopped him from becoming a famous face in Ecuador, spending 13 years hosting or appearing on political talk shows on multiple TV networks including TC and Ecuador TV. He left that job in 2017 after refusing to interview Fundamedios(an NGO committed to maintaining a free press in the Andean nations) founder Cesar Ricaurte, after Ricuarte was questioning Ecuador TV's transparency and claiming the government was leaning more into the public broadcaster. He was nominated for VP by UNES in September 2020.

Arauz's main policy goals are right here, and they're much in line with a lot of the other leftist leaders in South America: http://especiales.elcomercio.com/2020/0 ... plan_0.pdf

Arauz is currently polling at about 25% in a close first.

Alianza CREO-PSC - Guillermo Lasso and Alfredo Borrero(Centre-right)

CREO(Creating Opportunities, and the PSC(Social Christian Party) are teaming up for this one with a strong candidate. Guillermo Lasso got his first job at age 15 at the Guayaquil Stock Exchange and has been a constant presence in Ecuador's financial sector for most of the 45 years since then including as president of Banco Guayaquil or its board(Ecuador's third-largest) for 20 years and a stint doing finance for Ecuador's division of Coca-Cola in the 1980s. I say most because he's also a seasoned politician, serving as Governor of Guayas for a year from 1998-99, and in President Jamil Lahuad's cabinet as Super Minister of the Economy(a special post to tackle Ecuador's economic troubles) for a month in 1999. He joined some conservative movements before joining CREO on its inception in 2012. He's ran for president twice already, trounced by Correa in 2013, but only barely losing the 2017 runoff to Moreno 52-48. He's polling almost neck-and-neck with Arauz at the moment at about 22%, so third time could be the charm for him.

At his side, Dr. Alfredo Borrero is his VP. Borrero is a physician who's also Dean of Health Sciences at the University of the Americas, and he's also founder of the non-profit Salvar Vidas(Saving Lives), set up in the early days of the pandemic and raising over $12 million to buy ventilators for hospitals initially in Guayaquil and later nationwide. He's been a supporter of CREO since its founding and a follower of Lasso in particular since his '13 run.

Their 87-page manifesto lays out the entire four years, so here it is(damn thing can't be highlighted and easily translated like Arauz's manifesto): http://especiales.elcomercio.com/2020/0 ... lan_13.pdf

As I said, he's in a close second at 22%.

Right now, the polls have them neck and neck, but I think Lasso will pull off a close victory.

Peru: In a way, I'm glad George Forsyth's been slumping since the debates, I didn't make a profile of him because the issue of him being on the ballot was still in doubt at the time. On the other hand, the fact that De Soto, the living epitome of Neoliberalism, is poised to go to the runoff disgusts me. But enough of my personal views: My take on next week's presidential vote is that Lescano's a definite Spot 1, De Soto and Mendoza will be the ones struggling for Spot 2.

[Kilobugya]

Right now, the polls have them neck and neck, but I think Lasso will pull off a close victory.

Apart from Cedatos polls (which are partners of Banco de Guayaquil, whose CEO is ... Lasso, and are notorious for being unreliable, they mis-predicted all the presidential elections in Ecuador since decades) all the ones I've seen had Arauz from 4 to 8 points ahead. So I think Arauz will win, unless Lasso-Moreno manage to pull some last minute stunts.

[Shrillland]

Mexican Senate Majority Leader says the cannabis legalisation bill should be put off until September

It's already passed the Chamber.

[Kowani]

Now then, a little late, but here's my take on Sunday.

Ecuador: After Yaku Perez launched a hell of a stink over the results even going so far as to support military intervention, it's boiling down to Guillermo Lasso on the right and Andres Arauz on the elft. I did a profile of them several pages back, which I'll resurface:

Union for Hope(UNES) - Andrés Arauz and Carlos Rabascall(Left Wing)

Arauz was educated in both Ecuador and the United States, holding degrees from the University of Michigan and the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences(FLASCO). During Correa's presidency, he served as Coordinating Minister for Knowledge and Human Talent, which was an umbrella ministry that included the education, culture, and science & technology ministries in its portfolio. In 2017, Moreno dissolved the coordinating ministry and made the three departments separate entities again, putting Arauz out of a job. He would found the Dollarisation Observatory, an organisation opposed to Ecuador's dollarisation which took place 20 years ago and call for a return to the Sucre. He was nominated by UNES for the presidency in August of 2020, initially planning for Correa to be his VP. The CNE(Electoral Commission) shot this down because (A), Correa has 29 outstanding corruption charges against him, (B), he can't run for VP since he isn't qualifies to be President anymore, and (C), Correa moved to Belgium and still lives there, disqualifying him further.

In his place, Arauz chose Carlos Rabascall, who was born without one leg as a result of Thalidomide taken before his birth. That hasn't stopped him from becoming a famous face in Ecuador, spending 13 years hosting or appearing on political talk shows on multiple TV networks including TC and Ecuador TV. He left that job in 2017 after refusing to interview Fundamedios(an NGO committed to maintaining a free press in the Andean nations) founder Cesar Ricaurte, after Ricuarte was questioning Ecuador TV's transparency and claiming the government was leaning more into the public broadcaster. He was nominated for VP by UNES in September 2020.

Arauz's main policy goals are right here, and they're much in line with a lot of the other leftist leaders in South America: http://especiales.elcomercio.com/2020/0 ... plan_0.pdf

Arauz is currently polling at about 25% in a close first.

Alianza CREO-PSC - Guillermo Lasso and Alfredo Borrero(Centre-right)

CREO(Creating Opportunities, and the PSC(Social Christian Party) are teaming up for this one with a strong candidate. Guillermo Lasso got his first job at age 15 at the Guayaquil Stock Exchange and has been a constant presence in Ecuador's financial sector for most of the 45 years since then including as president of Banco Guayaquil or its board(Ecuador's third-largest) for 20 years and a stint doing finance for Ecuador's division of Coca-Cola in the 1980s. I say most because he's also a seasoned politician, serving as Governor of Guayas for a year from 1998-99, and in President Jamil Lahuad's cabinet as Super Minister of the Economy(a special post to tackle Ecuador's economic troubles) for a month in 1999. He joined some conservative movements before joining CREO on its inception in 2012. He's ran for president twice already, trounced by Correa in 2013, but only barely losing the 2017 runoff to Moreno 52-48. He's polling almost neck-and-neck with Arauz at the moment at about 22%, so third time could be the charm for him.

At his side, Dr. Alfredo Borrero is his VP. Borrero is a physician who's also Dean of Health Sciences at the University of the Americas, and he's also founder of the non-profit Salvar Vidas(Saving Lives), set up in the early days of the pandemic and raising over $12 million to buy ventilators for hospitals initially in Guayaquil and later nationwide. He's been a supporter of CREO since its founding and a follower of Lasso in particular since his '13 run.

Their 87-page manifesto lays out the entire four years, so here it is(damn thing can't be highlighted and easily translated like Arauz's manifesto): http://especiales.elcomercio.com/2020/0 ... lan_13.pdf

As I said, he's in a close second at 22%.

Right now, the polls have them neck and neck, but I think Lasso will pull off a close victory.

Peru: In a way, I'm glad George Forsyth's been slumping since the debates, I didn't make a profile of him because the issue of him being on the ballot was still in doubt at the time. On the other hand, the fact that De Soto, the living epitome of Neoliberalism, is poised to go to the runoff disgusts me. But enough of my personal views: My take on next week's presidential vote is that Lescano's a definite Spot 1, De Soto and Mendoza will be the ones struggling for Spot 2.

Peru's elections are tomorrow, so here come the polls

[Shrillland]

A simple picture of a bowl of spaghetti would've worked.

[Kilobugya]

Peru's elections are tomorrow, so here come the polls

What a mess ! So many parties, each scoring so low and close to each other, about everything can happen.

Ecuador is also having its second round today, I really hope Arauz will win, and the Lasso-Moreno clan won't be able to cheat.

[Baltenstein]

(Image)

Talking about an indecisive electorate.

[Shrillland]

Peru's elections are tomorrow, so here come the polls

What a mess ! So many parties, each scoring so low and close to each other, about everything can happen.

Ecuador is also having its second round today, I really hope Arauz will win, and the Lasso-Moreno clan won't be able to cheat.

Whatever happens in Peru, I sincerely hope that Fujimori or De Soto aren't going to the runoff myself.

[Shrillland]

The Ecuadorian polls have closed, and Lasso has won according to the Cedatos exit poll:

Lasso(Alianza CREO-PSC): 53.24%
Arauz(UNES): 46.76%

As for Peru, their polls don't close for another hour yet. So Lasso's won. The Pink Tide seems to be rolling away from Ecuador.

[Forumland]

The Ipsos exit poll projects that Pedro Castillo, a leftist who wasn't even mentioned in Shrillland's post, will top the poll with 16.1% of the vote. However, it seems likely that the candidate who takes 2nd would beat him in the runoff.

It's a very tight race for 2nd place, and there's a small chance that Castillo wouldn't make the runoff. But whoever Peruvians elect will get removed in a few months so I don't really care that much. Betting on Fujimori, honestly.

[Kowani]

Arauz has conceded to Lasso in Ecuador

[Shrillland]

The Ipsos exit poll projects that Pedro Castillo, a leftist who wasn't even mentioned in Shrillland's post, will top the poll with 16.1% of the vote. However, it seems likely that the candidate who takes 2nd would beat him in the runoff.

(Image)

It's a very tight race for 2nd place, and there's a small chance that Castillo wouldn't make the runoff. But whoever Peruvians elect will get removed in a few months so I don't really care that much. Betting on Fujimori, honestly.

Oh God, I hope not. Fujimori and De Soto jockeying for second?

No, I didn't make a post for him, he just kind of swooped up. Still, the runoff's June 6, I'll get round to it before then.

[Kilobugya]

Arauz has conceded to Lasso in Ecuador

My poor secondary-country Ecuador, what will become of you ?

Well, at least Lasso doesn't have a majority in the Assembly and will have trouble passing the worse of his measures, but still, what a disaster...

[Guomindang]

Arauz has conceded to Lasso in Ecuador

My poor secondary-country Ecuador, what will become of you ?

Well, at least Lasso doesn't have a majority in the Assembly and will have trouble passing the worse of his measures, but still, what a disaster...

It'll be interesting on what happens within Peru, as far as I am concerned, the current leading presidential candidate has ''connections" with the Communist Party of Peru -- Shining Path. I'd place my bets on either Soto, or Fujimori to enter the 2nd round against the Peru Libre party.

Other than that, let us enjoy the entertainment of who wins the election... the choices that the citizens that are represented... I'd vote for no one else... Probably a centrist party...

[Odreria]

The Ipsos exit poll projects that Pedro Castillo, a leftist who wasn't even mentioned in Shrillland's post, will top the poll with 16.1% of the vote. However, it seems likely that the candidate who takes 2nd would beat him in the runoff.

Well it will definitely be a chad move if he wins.

[Arisyan]

Arauz has conceded to Lasso in Ecuador

My poor secondary-country Ecuador, what will become of you ?

Well, at least Lasso doesn't have a majority in the Assembly and will have trouble passing the worse of his measures, but still, what a disaster...

Shit shit shit. I don't usually swear, but im treating myself today. Fuck, how the absolute hell did he win!? This is gonna be a mess considering leftists have an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly and austerity isn't taken kindly there. I pray to god he doesn't finish his term.

[Kilobugya]

My poor secondary-country Ecuador, what will become of you ?

Well, at least Lasso doesn't have a majority in the Assembly and will have trouble passing the worse of his measures, but still, what a disaster...

Shit shit shit. I don't usually swear, but im treating myself today. Fuck, how the absolute hell did he win!? This is gonna be a mess considering leftists have an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly and austerity isn't taken kindly there. I pray to god he doesn't finish his term.

Well, it has been 4 years during which all the media have been blasting the "correistas" will all kind of lies and disinformation, from bogus corruption cases to ties with FARC/ELN to "psychological influence" on criminals to ... and with the Covid situation which is very dire over there, door-to-door campaigning was much harder.

But yeah I was still betting on Arauz winning, due to the still vivid memory of the crisis of the end of 90s ("feriado bancario") in which Lasso participated, and the disastrous Moreno presidency that was mostly backed by Lasso. Seems I was overly optimistic in people's resilience to years and years of lies and slender.

But the struggle goes on - Lasso doesn't anywhere near a majority in the Assembly, and the people of Ecuador know how to resist when it's needed.

[Arlye Austros]

Given the current situation I would hate to be a Peruvian right now, having to chose between Mr. Pencil and Miss K².

[Arisyan]

Given the current situation I would hate to be a Peruvian right now, having to chose between Mr. Pencil and Miss K².

actually, De Soto is barely ahead of Fujimori in second place. Not much better but at least it isn't Communist vs Fujimorist, and instead Communist vs Neolib

[Arlye Austros]

Given the current situation I would hate to be a Peruvian right now, having to chose between Mr. Pencil and Miss K².

actually, De Soto is barely ahead of Fujimori in second place. Not much better but at least it isn't Communist vs Fujimorist, and instead Communist vs Neolib

Yeah, they seem to be head to head on it. We shall see what turns out to be, but Keiko I find to be really cringy.

UPDATE: She's back on track.
https://twitter.com/Agencia_Andina/stat ... 8426435586