UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

[Thermodolia]

They stand to gain the very most from being a tax haven for the rich and criminal.

But a no deal Brexit means the bankers would suffer greatly

No they wouldn’t. They already have plans to move operations to the EU. No deal would hurt the working class you hate

[Hirota]

He remains the most successful Labour leader. Makes one think that maybe going further to the left was a mistake.

It's a mistake to have policies that are actually popular with the electorate?

I'm sorry Vass, maybe you've not actually seen the election results. Go away and come back and then tell us precisely how popular these policies actually were.

[Vassenor]

It's a mistake to have policies that are actually popular with the electorate?

Judging from this election? It's clear Corbyn's policies weren't nearly as popular with the electorate as Blair's were.

So what are you predicting will be the Black Wednesday that destroys the Conservatives' credibility then?

[Thermodolia]

It's a mistake to have policies that are actually popular with the electorate?

I'm sorry Vass, maybe you've not actually seen the election results. Go away and come back and then tell us precisely how popular these policies actually were.

The policies are pretty popular however the majority wants Brexit and Corbyn and Labour did too much waffling on that for people to take them seriously. Interesting a lot of labour voters in North went to BXP

[Thermodolia]

So do we have enough info to do a proper post-mortem yet or are we still wildly scapegoating?

Well, you could always offer your own proper post-mortem instead of snarking about the failures of others.

Why not give it a try? You never know, you might even like it.

Though it gets pretty damn addictive

[Vassenor]

I'm sorry Vass, maybe you've not actually seen the election results. Go away and come back and then tell us precisely how popular these policies actually were.

The policies are pretty popular however the majority wants Brexit and Corbyn and Labour did too much waffling on that for people to take them seriously. Interesting a lot of labour voters in North went to BXP

But that's bad for the idea that Labour needs to lurch rightward immediately.

[Hirota]

$10 says Blair is smirking to himself in the mirror right now.

He remains the most successful Labour leader. Makes one think that maybe going further to the left was a mistake.

...I'm not sure. Whilst I'm snarky at Vass apparently not knowing how to read polls, I actually don't think the policies are the problem. There is a fair amount in Labours manifesto that would obviously benefit the working class.

I personally think it's Labours continued sneering at the Brexit result (which was overwelmingly supported by the working class) that punished Labour. Ironically, if Corbs was allowed to be the eurosceptic he's always been, I think he'd probably have had more support from the working class. Instead he was in power as Labour leader only because of the large pro-EU, paternalistic, identiarian bloc in the form of Momentum...the same ideology that caused the working class to turn against Labour.

I'm still mulling it over though. Lots to digest from this result.

The policies are pretty popular however the majority wants Brexit and Corbyn and Labour did too much waffling on that for people to take them seriously. Interesting a lot of labour voters in North went to BXP

But that's bad for the idea that Labour needs to lurch rightward immediately.

Luckily I never said I want Labour to "lurch rightward." But there certainly is a middle ground between Corbism and Blair that is being sneered at far too much by the far left to keep Labour credible. But it's up to Labour to decide if they want to become credible candidates again and earn some popularity in the working class...you know, that traditional core demographic of theirs.

[Shofercia]

Wow, what a slaughter.

[Prydania]

Judging from this election? It's clear Corbyn's policies weren't nearly as popular with the electorate as Blair's were.

So what are you predicting will be the Black Wednesday that destroys the Conservatives' credibility then?

I don't think that Labour's cure is as simple as waiting for the Conservatives to implode. I mean that will help, yes, but Labour only won 203 seats. That's their worst showing since 1935. You can't brush that aside, blame the media, Brexit, or Jews (as Ken Livingstone did). You have to come to terms with the fact that Corbyn's brand of Labour politics was utterly wiped out and rejected, by a large portion of their supposed base.

I understand self-reflection isn't a skill common amongst radicals, but this proves that Corbyn's direction did not resonate. And so, to successfully rebuild Labour, you can't just be about "we're not the Tories." You actually have to fix what the populace found off-putting about your politics.
Modelling the party on Blair's New Labour isn't the worse thing in the world, when you consider how far reaching and successful New Labour was. It wasn't hardcore socialism, but it wrestled the country away from the Tories and it progressed the UK as a nation across a number of areas.

[Thermodolia]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18098627.boris-johnson-says-brexit-will-get-done-january-31-no-ifs-no-buts/

“We must recognise the incredible reality that we now speak as a one nation Conservative Party literally for everyone from Woking to Workington, from Kensington I’m proud to say to Clwyd South, from Surrey Heath to Sedgefield, from Wimbledon to Wolverhampton.”

He added: “Parliament must change so that we in Parliament are working for you the British people.”

Mr Johnson said Brexit will get done by January 31 “no ifs, no buts”.

He said: “And I will make it my mission to work night and day, flat out to prove that you were right in voting for me this time, and to earn your support in the future.

Looks like Prime Minister Johnson has spoken, a (likely no-deal) Brexit by 31 January 2020. Oh boy, this will be entertaining.

You're mistaken; there will be a deal.

Parliament will now move the legislation to approve Johnson's deal before Christmas, and this will pass in time for the UK to leave the EU by the 31st of January.

The potential for no deal now comes in the subsequent trade negotiations, and the possibility that the government will simply walk out those negotiations without reaching a deal if no agreement is reached by the relevant deadline.

See I’m not so sure about that. I think BoJo will go back on the deal and just get that “must ask for extension bill” repealed and then do nothing.

I don’t actually think that he plans on following through with his deal at all. The idea has been from the beginning to crash out

[Thermodolia]

He remains the most successful Labour leader. Makes one think that maybe going further to the left was a mistake.

...I'm not sure. Whilst I'm snarky at Vass apparently not knowing how to read polls, I actually don't think the policies are the problem. There is a fair amount in Labours manifesto that would obviously benefit the working class.

I personally think it's Labours continued sneering at the Brexit result (which was overwelmingly supported by the working class) that punished Labour. Ironically, if Corbs was allowed to be the eurosceptic he's always been, I think he'd probably have had more support from the working class. Instead he was in power as Labour leader only because of the large pro-EU, paternalistic, identiarian bloc in the form of Momentum...the same ideology that caused the working class to turn against Labour.

I'm still mulling it over though. Lots to digest from this result.

I think you are spot on with this. Hell a large chunk of Labour voters split for BXP so they definitely wanted brexit

[Purgatio]

Prediction for next LibDem leadership contest for the small number of you who care:

Ed Davey versus Layla Moran, with Davey winning.

Southwest London versus Oxford will do nothing to dispel the idea that the LibDems are a party of middle-class handwringers, academics, and rural voters from the outer edges of Scotland. But it's not as if there's a lot of choice given Farron is out and Carmichael - who holds our safest seat - consistently rules himself out given how far away Orkney and Shetland are.

Still, there's an outside chance that the UK's third-largest political party is about to be led by a British-Palestinian (Moran), so there's that.

And the gutter press would probably have a field day with that given how loudly Corbyn being pro-Palestine was spun into proof of high grade anti-Semitism. Imagine how they'd handle someone of actual Palestinian extraction when the objective is to slam down possible challengers to the government.

Maybe it'll be the thing that makes the tabloids finally tear each other apart .

If there will be controversy about Layla Moran, it is likely to be about domestic violence, not her Palestinian heritage, obviously.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Dennis Skinner gone! Who is going to take the piss now?

Terrible night. The few bright spots are Corbyn not leading Labour into the next election, the DUP getting punished by voters, and Chuka Umunna losing his seat.

[Purgatio]

You're mistaken; there will be a deal.

Parliament will now move the legislation to approve Johnson's deal before Christmas, and this will pass in time for the UK to leave the EU by the 31st of January.

The potential for no deal now comes in the subsequent trade negotiations, and the possibility that the government will simply walk out those negotiations without reaching a deal if no agreement is reached by the relevant deadline.

See I’m not so sure about that. I think BoJo will go back on the deal and just get that “must ask for extension bill” repealed and then do nothing.

I don’t actually think that he plans on following through with his deal at all. The idea has been from the beginning to crash out

Especially since the transitional deal would require the UK to adopt certain EU VAT rules with respect to goods sold in Northern Ireland, and allowing the EU to have some involement on enforcing regulations in points of entry on the Northern Ireland-Ireland border, and we know how Boris Johnson and the other hard-right Tory backbenchers feel about the UK legal order mirroring and complying in any way with rules established by the EU

[Thermodolia]

So what are you predicting will be the Black Wednesday that destroys the Conservatives' credibility then?

I don't think that Labour's cure is as simple as waiting for the Conservatives to implode. I mean that will help, yes, but Labour only won 203 seats. That's their worst showing since 1935. You can't brush that aside, blame the media, Brexit, or Jews (as Ken Livingstone did). You have to come to terms with the fact that Corbyn's brand of Labour politics was utterly wiped out and rejected, by a large portion of their supposed base.

I understand self-reflection isn't a skill common amongst radicals, but this proves that Corbyn's direction did not resonate. And so, to successfully rebuild Labour, you can't just be about "we're not the Tories." You actually have to fix what the populace found off-putting about your politics.
Modelling the party on Blair's New Labour isn't the worse thing in the world, when you consider how far reaching and successful New Labour was. It wasn't hardcore socialism, but it wrestled the country away from the Tories and it progressed the UK as a nation across a number of areas.

The thing is that this election was really about the policies but about Brexit. Labour lost in the north because labour working class split for BXP. Brexit is the cause of this loss and labour’s waffling on it. If Corbs was able to be the anti-eu he’s always been then we might have had a hung parliament or even a labour majority

[Purgatio]

Wow, what a slaughter.

And a Tory landslide is what the polls have been predicting for a while, including YouGov's MRP

[Vassenor]

So what are you predicting will be the Black Wednesday that destroys the Conservatives' credibility then?

I don't think that Labour's cure is as simple as waiting for the Conservatives to implode. I mean that will help, yes, but Labour only won 203 seats. That's their worst showing since 1935. You can't brush that aside, blame the media, Brexit, or Jews (as Ken Livingstone did). You have to come to terms with the fact that Corbyn's brand of Labour politics was utterly wiped out and rejected, by a large portion of their supposed base.

I understand self-reflection isn't a skill common amongst radicals, but this proves that Corbyn's direction did not resonate. And so, to successfully rebuild Labour, you can't just be about "we're not the Tories." You actually have to fix what the populace found off-putting about your politics.
Modelling the party on Blair's New Labour isn't the worse thing in the world, when you consider how far reaching and successful New Labour was. It wasn't hardcore socialism, but it wrestled the country away from the Tories and it progressed the UK as a nation across a number of areas.

And New Labour was successful at first because the Conservatives had imploded in the wake of Major's fuckups.

[Thermodolia]

See I’m not so sure about that. I think BoJo will go back on the deal and just get that “must ask for extension bill” repealed and then do nothing.

I don’t actually think that he plans on following through with his deal at all. The idea has been from the beginning to crash out

Especially since the transitional deal would require the UK to adopt certain EU VAT rules with respect to goods sold in Northern Ireland, and allowing the EU to have some involement on enforcing regulations in points of entry on the Northern Ireland-Ireland border, and we know how Boris Johnson and the other hard-right Tory backbenchers feel about the UK legal order mirroring and complying in any way with rules established by the EU

Honestly I think BoJo will request to have a border poll held. He can claim that the majority of nationalist MPs demands it and then if NI votes to unite then he can completely get rid of the backstop entirely

[Prydania]

I don't think that Labour's cure is as simple as waiting for the Conservatives to implode. I mean that will help, yes, but Labour only won 203 seats. That's their worst showing since 1935. You can't brush that aside, blame the media, Brexit, or Jews (as Ken Livingstone did). You have to come to terms with the fact that Corbyn's brand of Labour politics was utterly wiped out and rejected, by a large portion of their supposed base.

I understand self-reflection isn't a skill common amongst radicals, but this proves that Corbyn's direction did not resonate. And so, to successfully rebuild Labour, you can't just be about "we're not the Tories." You actually have to fix what the populace found off-putting about your politics.
Modelling the party on Blair's New Labour isn't the worse thing in the world, when you consider how far reaching and successful New Labour was. It wasn't hardcore socialism, but it wrestled the country away from the Tories and it progressed the UK as a nation across a number of areas.

And New Labour was successful at first because the Conservatives had imploded in the wake of Major's fuckups.

And that's my point. New Labour v2, combined with blowback against the Conservatives if Brexit hits hard, will do wonders for the party.

[Vassenor]

And New Labour was successful at first because the Conservatives had imploded in the wake of Major's fuckups.

And that's my point. New Labour v2, combined with blowback against the Conservatives if Brexit hits hard, will do wonders for the party.

So I take it you can prove that this loss was because of policy blowback then? Given that your argument is riding on it.

[The Archregimancy]

He remains the most successful Labour leader. Makes one think that maybe going further to the left was a mistake.

...I'm not sure. Whilst I'm snarky at Vass apparently not knowing how to read polls, I actually don't think the policies are the problem. There is a fair amount in Labours manifesto that would obviously benefit the working class.

I personally think it's Labours continued sneering at the Brexit result (which was overwelmingly supported by the working class) that punished Labour. Ironically, if Corbs was allowed to be the eurosceptic he's always been, I think he'd probably have had more support from the working class. Instead he was in power as Labour leader only because of the large pro-EU, paternalistic, identiarian bloc in the form of Momentum...the same ideology that caused the working class to turn against Labour.

I'm still mulling it over though. Lots to digest from this result.

A decent enough early analysis. Implicit in the above, though perhaps worth teasing out a bit more, is that Corbyn simply proved himself to be a terrible party leader.

I don't doubt he's a decent man (though much the same could be said about Nicholas II and George W. Bush), and clearly has strong ideals; but the talents that make a successful campaigning backbench MP are not the same talents that make a successful party leader. Blaming his unprecedented unpopularity on unfair media coverage simply misses the point. On the two main issues that likely cost him support - Brexit and anti-Semitism - the issue wasn't necessarily his own position on either, but rather his ineffectiveness on both. Trying to square the circle on Brexit simply left the party looking indecisive and non-committal until it was far too late, and while I entirely accept that Corbyn is not himself an anti-Semite, he was blind to how the combination of his own past associations regarding Palestine and the party's initial inability to act decisively against the small number of genuine anti-Semites in the party not only helped facilitate a perception of anti-Semitism (sometimes justified in individual cases, and sometimes not) but also fed into the narrative of wishy-washy indecisiveness; again until it was far too late.

If he had never been party leader, he would have been remembered as a fine left-wing campaigning backbencher who stood up for his ideals.

Instead he's likely to go down as the least successful Labour leader since Arthur Henderson.


And for those who don't want to look up that reference.... Following the collapse of the 1929 Labour government, and the split in the Labour Party that led to MacDonald forming National Labour in support of Baldwin's National Government (well, technically MacDonald initially remained PM, but Baldwin was the driving force in the largest party), Henderson led the continuing Labour Party into the 1931 election. The party lost 235 seats, winning a mere 52 seats with just over 30% of the vote (though such was the scale of the National Government landslide that, combined with the Liberals splitting into three parliamentary groups, that dismal result was still enough to come second). Attlee began the revival in 1935 (though still winning only 154 seats), but Labour wouldn't win government again until 1945.

Very different circumstances, perhaps. But worth reflecting on.

[Prydania]

And that's my point. New Labour v2, combined with blowback against the Conservatives if Brexit hits hard, will do wonders for the party.

So I take it you can prove that this loss was because of policy blowback then? Given that your argument is riding on it.

I think that you, and other Corbyn supporters, are going to ridiculous lengths to deny the obvious. As I said, you can't just write this loss off. This is a historic defeat. "Michael Foot in '83" historic.
I mean I'm arguing for a version of Labour that won the largest majorities in the party's history. You're continuing to insist a version of Labout that got wiped out by Boris G-ddman Johnson of all people is still viable.

No, sorry. Corbyn's direction didn't just fail. It was an utter disaster.

[Vassenor]

So I take it you can prove that this loss was because of policy blowback then? Given that your argument is riding on it.

I think that you, and other Corbyn supporters, are going to ridiculous lengths to deny the obvious. As I said, you can't just write this loss off. This is a historic defeat. "Michael Foot in '83" historic.
I mean I'm arguing for a version of Labour that won the largest majorities in the party's history. You're continuing to insist a version of Labout that got wiped out by Boris G-ddman Johnson of all people is still viable.

No, sorry. Corbyn's direction didn't just fail. It was an utter disaster.

So that's a no then. Because I'm not sure how "I support the policies but I can't vote for him" is his direction itself failing.

[Prydania]

I think that you, and other Corbyn supporters, are going to ridiculous lengths to deny the obvious. As I said, you can't just write this loss off. This is a historic defeat. "Michael Foot in '83" historic.
I mean I'm arguing for a version of Labour that won the largest majorities in the party's history. You're continuing to insist a version of Labout that got wiped out by Boris G-ddman Johnson of all people is still viable.

No, sorry. Corbyn's direction didn't just fail. It was an utter disaster.

So that's a no then. Because I'm not sure how "I support the policies but I can't vote for him" is his direction itself failing.

What's your proof that was the cause of Labour's wipe-out?
I mean it. This is, essentially, the political version of the Big Foot debate. It falls on the person making the extraordinary claim to provide evidence. And the idea that Corbyn's version of Labour is still electorally viable after a historic wipe-out like this? That's the extraordinary claim here.

You don't get to suffer one of the most lopsided electoral defeats in British history and claim that it's patently obvious your side totally has the more popular platform.

[Vassenor]

So that's a no then. Because I'm not sure how "I support the policies but I can't vote for him" is his direction itself failing.

What's your proof that was the cause of Labour's wipe-out?
I mean it. This is, essentially, the political version of the Big Foot debate. It falls on the person making the extraordinary claim to provide evidence. And the idea that Corbyn's version of Labour is still electorally viable after a historic wipe-out like this? That's the extraordinary claim here.

You don't get to suffer one of the most lopsided electoral defeats in British history and claim that it's patently obvious your side totally has the more popular platform.

So in lieu of providing evidence to prove yourself right, you demand that I prove you wrong?

Also don't shove words into my mouth - I didn't say it was the more popular platform. Just that it's not as massively unpopular as you're insinuating.