Apologies for taking a while to post this; I've written it either side of my commute home.
Vassenor wrote:The Archregimancy wrote:Much better, thank you. That's a good, solid post with robust detail.
Could you provide a full list of the 10 Remain Labour constituencies impacted, please. I'm genuinely curious.
The current list (cross-referencing your provided list of objectives with the list of signatories at
https://www.remain-labour.co.uk/campaign-pledge-ge-2019)
Of the MPs standing for re-election who have signed the Pledge whose seats are Alliance objectives:Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central
Stephen Morgan, Portsmouth South
Ben Bradshaw, Exeter
Thangam Debbonaire, Bristol West
Helen Hayes, Dulwich and West Norwood
Candidates for election in objective seats who have signed:Dan Greef, South Cambridgeshire
Cheryl Pidgeon, Rushcliffe
Matt Uberoi, Chelsea and Fulham
Steffie Williams Roberts, Afron
David Morgan, Buckingham
Ross Houston, Finchley and Golders Green
Jackie Schneider, Wimbledon
Rosa Bolger, Witney
Chris Ostrowski, Watford
Jonny Roberts, Wantage
Robert Logan, Thornbury and Yate
James Bull, South East Cambridgeshire
Putting the numbers error down to an issue with my original research. Also need to go more in depth to identify which candidates are more likely to be a spoiler or get spoiled.
That's useful thank you.
So if I'm reading your post correctly, it impacts only five sitting MPs. It certainly doesn't threaten Debonnaire (Bristol West), Bradshaw (Exeter), or Hayes (Dulwich); they're quite safe, as
addressed elsewhere in this thread.
Of the others...
Stevens (Cardiff Central) won over 60% of the vote in 2017; she's presumably safe short of a political earthquake.
Morgan (Portsmouth South) is in a marginal, but one with an unusual history. Portsmouth South has been won by all three parties in the three elections between 2010-2017 (SDP then LibDem Mike Hancock held the seat from '84-'87, and then again from '97-'15), and the LibDems control Portsmouth City Council with much of their support focused in the south of Portsmouth (a city I know well; a close family member was a candidate for Portsmouth North in the 1970s); so while the LibDems fell from first to third over two elections (and Labour have gone from third to first in the same time period), the LibDems will have serious aspirations to take a seat that they held for nearly 20 years prior to 2015. So not a huge surprise they're making an effort here.
So of the five sitting MPs, it negatively impacts precisely one - and one standing in a seat with a long recent LibDem history in a city with a strong LibDem presence.
As noted in my earlier post covering the Greens, the Unite to Remain alliance isn't necessarily always
targeting seats. That's no doubt the impression that it would like people to have, but no one seriously expects the Greens to win Bristol West, Dulwich, or Exeter. In these cases it may be more about local considerations - increasing the party's profile to give it stronger opportunities in local elections, for example.
Anyway, of the other seats, where new pro-Remain Labour candidates are contesting seats currently held by other parties:
South Cambridgeshire: Constituency polling shows the LibDems are in the lead and Labour are nowhere.
See here. It doesn't take a misleading LibDem leaflet to see this seat is now a straight-up LibDem - Conservative fight. Mr Greef is welcome to stand down if he wants to avoid splitting the Remain vote.
Rushcliffe: Ken Clarke's old seat. Even allowing that the loss of a longstanding popular local MP might have an impact, the LibDems and Greens combined won only 7.5% of the vote in 2017; the Tories won over 50%; so likely little impact here.
Chelsea and Fulham: Greg Hands won over 50% of the vote in 2017, and over 60% in 2015; so likely little impact.
Arfon: This is already a Plaid Cymru seat; and a straight-up PC - Labour marginal. Whatever happens, a remainer MP will be elected.
Buckingham: As the former Speaker's seat, there's no precedent to fall back on since 2005. What we can see is that it's been held continuously by the Tories or the Speaker since 1970 (Robert Maxwell - of all people - briefly held it for Labour between '66-'70). The Tories won over 50% of the vote in all but one election from 1979 through 2005, with Labour and the LibDems neck and neck for second/third. Clearly Labour and the LibDems are nonetheless sniffing blood here, with the LibDems running former Tory cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell (who came to the party via Change UK). But given the closeness of the Labour / LibDem vote in the period immediately before the seat stopped being contested, it's not clear why one party should agree to stand aside in favour of the other. I can't find a constituency poll.
Finchley and Golders Green: Superficially, it might look like the Labour candidate has a right to be irritated with this one. Conservative Mike Freer won the seat by a narrow 3.2% margin over Labour in 2017, with the LibDems a distant third with only 6% of the vote. Labour held the seat from 1997-2010. This is, of course, where Luciana Berger is running as a LibDem, on the basis of Finchley being a Remainer seat with a strong Jewish minority vote. But....
the latest constituency poll from Survation shows that Berger is romping it with 41% of the vote (important caveat: said constituency poll is just under a month old). So, as with South Cambridgeshire, if the currently third-placed Labour candidate wants to step aside to avoid splitting the Remainer vote, be our guest.
Wimbledon: One of a couple of seats where the Labour remainer candidate might have serious grounds for complaint. Labour were a clear second behind Stephen Hammond in 2017; the LibDems were third with about 16% of the vote. I know of no constituency polls for this one. The LibDems are likely hoping that the relative collapse in Labour support in some of the more affluent seats in Greater London puts the seat in play for them. I can offer no informed opinion over whether that judgement is well-placed or not.
Witney: David Cameron's old seat. I don't think it's seriously in play; the LibDems finished a strong second in the 2016 by-election, and then Labour marginally pipped them to second by about 150 votes in 2017; but Robert Courts won just over 55% of the vote in 2017, so it's unlikely Unite to Remain will have much impact other than potentially pushing Labour to third. Anyway, it's not clear why either Labour or the LibDems should stand down for each other given there's no clear favourite for second.
Watford: As with Wimbledon, one where the Labour remainer might be legitimately upset. Labour were a clear second in 2017, losing by a margin of only 3.6%; the LibDems were a distant third with only 9.1% of the vote. Richard Harrington is standing down. It's a slightly less extreme version of Portsmouth South. While the LibDems never held the seat, they were a strong second in 2005 and 2010, and the local council is overwhelmingly LibDem (they hold 26 of the 36 borough council seats); this is likely driving LibDem calculations. I know of no constituency polls that would clarify the situation.
Wantage: Ed Vaizey held this seat comfortably for years, with over 50% of the vote in most elections. It's only ever been won by the Tories, and only at the peak of Blair's late 90s popularity did the two main opposition parties make any dent in the Tory vote share. I suppose it may depend on who replaces Vaizey, but I would be surprised if the seat was in play.
Thornbury and Yate: Surely you're mistaken that this is a Labour target seat? It was a LibDem seat when formed, just taken by the Tories in 2015, and the Tories consolidated their position in 2017. The LibDems remain a clear second, with Labour winning only 12% of the vote in 2017. So no, I don't think the Labour candidate is hard done by here.
South East Cambridgeshire: a Conservative seat since its formation in 1983, the LibDems/SDP have finished second in this seat in every election except 1997 and 2017. However, since Lucy Frazer holds the seat with more than 55% of the vote, any arguing over who's more likely to harm who is likely pointless. No likely impact on the outcome.
Summed up, of the five sitting remainer Labour MPs, only Stephen Morgan in Portsmouth South will likely be impacted.
Of the 12 candidates who aren't MPs, it looks like two - the candidates for Wimbledon and Watford - might have legitimate grounds for thinking Unite to Remain might seriously impact the chances of returning a Remain MP. There are a couple of others (South Cambridgeshire and Finchley) where they might lose what they would have thought was a winnable seat to the LibDems, but not as a direct cause of Unite to Remain, and a Remainer is the favourite to win in both. They might lose Arfon to the alliance, but a pro-Remain MP will be elected regardless.
Final summing up: Unite to Remain covers 60 seats; out of those 60, only three Labour Remainers seem to be at risk of either losing their existing seat, or not winning a Labour target, to a Leave candidate. That's 5% of the seats where Unite to Remain reached agreement.
It's almost enough to make you think that harming Labour Remainers wasn't really the primary goal of Unite to Remain.