Who will Win the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election?

[Samudera Darussalam]

Ah yes, I keep hearing about 1998. Probably caused the fear of going back doing political events honestly. My grandparents were due to return back to Indonesia by then but my parents got them permanent residency here. Although now, they're back in Indonesia so I assume that this wont be a repeat.

Yes, 1998 and 1965 are the dark pasts of ours that we hope won't be repeated, though, I've read some people who took the advantage of the tragedy in 1998 to spread fear in the news. Tbh, both sides aren't playing nice.

Hopefully, they won't be repeated.

[Samudera Darussalam]

There's no way Joko Widodo will lose, right?

And also, I feel like you've either underestimated Indonesia's prominence or NS's geography skills. I think almost everyone's got to have heard of Indonesia.

Let's just wait and see. Sometimes the result is going right according to our prediction, sometimes it can be a surprise.

Well according to wiki, this how I see it:

I'm not gonna support PKB nor PKS because neither want a full-on 100% Islamic government. Also PKS has/had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood so So that leaves PAN and PBB. The reason I picked PBB was because wiki said that they want an Islamic way of life for Indonesia. Then again so does PAN and wiki saying that PAN is moderate Islamist doesn't necessarily mean they're munaafiqoon.

Tbh all the Islamic parties should just unite, Or at least from a coalition.

To form a coalition? Ideally, probably, but they are in different parties that mean they also have different political aspirations and agendas. It's somehow hard, seemingly.

Well, I have no idea but there in Indonesia, there are two sides. Some Muslims want to have the sharia law implemented there and some don't want to. In the past, what the PBB advocated for won't be too popular, but given the facts that there is an increase in religiousness among Indonesian Muslims compared to the years right after Suharto's fall, some may be surprised.

[Duhon]

Indonesia is more than a nation of just Muslims, Amin. The last thing it needs, given its history, is more Islam.

[Shrillland]

Widowo will definitely win today, and I think that PDI-P will gain seats in the Council as well.

[El-Amin Caliphate]

There's no way Joko Widodo will lose, right?

And also, I feel like you've either underestimated Indonesia's prominence or NS's geography skills. I think almost everyone's got to have heard of Indonesia.

Let's just wait and see. Sometimes the result is going right according to our prediction, sometimes it can be a surprise.

Well according to wiki, this how I see it:

I'm not gonna support PKB nor PKS because neither want a full-on 100% Islamic government. Also PKS has/had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood so So that leaves PAN and PBB. The reason I picked PBB was because wiki said that they want an Islamic way of life for Indonesia. Then again so does PAN and wiki saying that PAN is moderate Islamist doesn't necessarily mean they're munaafiqoon.

Tbh all the Islamic parties should just unite, Or at least from a coalition.

To form a coalition? Ideally, probably, but they are in different parties that mean they also have different political aspirations and agendas. It's somehow hard, seemingly.

Well, I have no idea but there in Indonesia, there are two sides. Some Muslims want to have the sharia law implemented there and some don't want to. In the past, what the PBB advocated for won't be too popular, but given the facts that there is an increase in religiousness among Indonesian Muslims compared to the years right after Suharto's fall, some may be surprised.

Well the Malaysian Islamic Party Gagasan Sejahtera is a coalition of Islamic parties. If they can do it so can the Muslim Indonesian parties (I know the situation is different but still). And I sincerely hope and pray that Muslim Indonesian want Al-Islam in full for their country.

[El-Amin Caliphate]

Indonesia is more than a nation of just Muslims, Amin. The last thing it needs, given its history, is more Islam.

Al-Islam is not defined by history.

[Outer Sparta]

I haven't been paying much attention to Indonesia, but I'm thinking Widodo pulls this off easily.

[Samudera Darussalam]

Indonesia is more than a nation of just Muslims, Amin. The last thing it needs, given its history, is more Islam.

It can be translated in various ways, you know. I think, it's good for Muslims to get to know their religion better, as it's a part of their identity, same with the other people.
However, I'm also agree on the part that we can't force sharia on the others if they don't want to, because Indonesia is religiously diverse, and even the various Muslim groups here may have different opinions. The Acehnese get it as part of our agreement on their autonomy, because many see that peace is better rather than facing another conflict, especially after that 2004 Tsunami.

Widowo will definitely win today, and I think that PDI-P will gain seats in the Council as well.

For the PDI-P to gain seat in the Council is not just mere probability, since they are one of the largest political parties as of now.

I haven't been paying much attention to Indonesia, but I'm thinking Widodo pulls this off easily.

Don't rush yourself, the election's just over, at least in my place

[El-Amin Caliphate]

Indonesia is more than a nation of just Muslims, Amin. The last thing it needs, given its history, is more Islam.

It can be translated in various ways, you know. I think, it's good for Muslims to get to know their religion better, as it's a part of their identity, same with the other people.
However, I'm also agree on the part that we can't force sharia on the others if they don't want to, because Indonesia is religiously diverse, and even the various Muslim groups here may have different opinions. The Acehnese get it as part of our agreement on their autonomy, because many see that peace is better rather than facing another conflict, especially after that 2004 Tsunami.

Every Muslim country should have full 100% Shari'ah for its Muslim citizens.

[Blargoblarg]

I'm hoping Widodo wins, he sounds like the better candidate to me.

[Samudera Darussalam]

For update:

It's not official yet, but according to some organizations/institutions that conduct the quick count of the results with around 50% of the data already counted, the first candidate gets an overall higher vote of roughly 54-56%, and the second candidate's trailing behind with around 44-46%. It seems that the second candidate managed to secure majority votes in much of Sumatra, Sulawesi, and the western part of Java, while the first reigns in the other areas of Java, North Sumatra, Lampung, Bali, much of Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi. The other provinces are pretty much swing vote areas as of now.

[Arkhastok]

I just found out apparently my uncle is running under Golkar locally in his area. Heard my parents talking about it and found a lot of campaign posts on his social media accounts

[Phoenicaea]

who should be, the reformist or the absolutist. well, i haven t heard of indonesia, which is rare, since i somewhat hear the naked dailynews about elections held.

if what author writes in his intro is quite right, may i ask, what is the form of the state, and what is the electoral law.

absolutists may find aid from empires, while reformists from small towns. this is not an ever granted rule. mass-count vote would aid absolutist, state delegates favor reformist.

so, may ask, how do indonesians live, which part of them in slum and in jungle swamp. about the rest, which is the dominant investor and which part lives in megaloples or in towns.

[Imperial Majapahit]

...the first candidate gets an overall higher vote of roughly 54-56%, and the second candidate's trailing behind with around 44-46%...

And it's looking very likely that this percentage won't change much, or if it does, just by one or two percent.

It's an easy win for Jokowi, I reckon.

[Samudera Darussalam]

...the first candidate gets an overall higher vote of roughly 54-56%, and the second candidate's trailing behind with around 44-46%...

And it's looking very likely that this percentage won't change much, or if it does, just by one or two percent.

It's an easy win for Jokowi, I reckon.

Yes, given the percentage of the votes that have already been counted (and demography) this won't change much, most likely.

[Samudera Darussalam]

who should be, the reformist or the absolutist. well, i haven t heard of indonesia, which is rare, since i somewhat hear the naked dailynews about elections held.

if what author writes in his intro is quite right, may i ask, what is the form of the state, and what is the electoral law.

absolutists may find aid from empires, while reformists from small towns. this is not an ever granted rule. mass-count vote would aid absolutist, state delegates favor reformist.

so, may ask, how do indonesians live, which part of them in slum and in jungle swamp. about the rest, which is the dominant investor and which part lives in megaloples or in towns.

Hmm.
I'm not the author, but I will try to answer your question with the best of my knowledge.

Indonesia is a presidential representative democratic republic, where each elected president has a 5 year-terms in the office. It adopts the multi-party system, and it's ideology is the Pancasila that it believes embodies the spirit and characteristic of the Indonesian nation. As far as I know....Indonesia has no electoral college, at least in the presidential election, though I'm not really aware about the legislative branch.

As for how Indonesians live.......there'll be many answers to that because it really depends on the place. More than half of the total population live in the island of Java, and many parts of the island are already urbanized. The second most populated island is Sumatra, and it can be rural or urban depending on what regions that you are referring to. From my own traveling experience, West Sumatra seems to be pretty urban, though I recall going through stretches of jungle and villages in the other provinces (probably some areas in Jambi or South Sumatra) to go there. Bali is also pretty urban, especially its southern part where the tourism industry thrives. Kalimantan has an almost similar situation as Sumatra, with major cities are usually located near the coasts or along the rivers, though communities of native tribes exist in the hinterland. West Papua seems to be pretty rural with many tribes living in the hinterland, but cities like Jayapura or Sorong exist mostly by the coasts.

There are some small communities living in the jungle, such as the Anak Dalam of Sumatra, probably some Dayaks in Kalimantan/Borneo, and some other tribes in West Papua.

Slums can be found in many major cities in Indonesia, some of the notable ones are in Jakarta (from the last time I visited) and Surabaya. Many of these are located along the river, and a number of them are on government's land.

About the reformist and absolutist, some said that Jokowi is a reformist, while there are also some who speculate that Prabowo will rule like a dictator if he wins, giving his past connection with the former president Suharto and the Indonesian military.

[Brightlake]

The election already done, Widodo won 4-5% over subianto. At least economically there would not be a radical change for the nation and SEA region but subianto follower will not willingly accept the result and their society may be divided apart between widodo followers (mostly nationalist) and subianto follower (mixed kind of interest start form calliphate supporters, etc).

[Phoenicaea]

@Samudera Darussalam, thank you for your steady answer, i m eager to read it attentively.

[Neu Leonstein]

Spiegel reports Jokowi on 55%. Obviously gonna take a while until results are anywhere near final (next month?), but doesn't look like an upset at this point.

Time for BI to cut, no?

[Samudera Darussalam]

The election already done, Widodo won 4-5% over subianto. At least economically there would not be a radical change for the nation and SEA region but subianto follower will not willingly accept the result and their society may be divided apart between widodo followers (mostly nationalist) and subianto follower (mixed kind of interest start form calliphate supporters, etc).

I have yet to see the final count, since according to the previous developments, one can guess who will win

Yes, I also think that there won't be any radical changes for the nation itself, though given the time.....who knows?

Your prediction about the post-election situation is pretty bleak, though it's really possible that there will be divide in the society.

@Samudera Darussalam, thank you for your steady answer, i m eager to read it attentively.

Okay.

[Samudera Darussalam]

Spiegel reports Jokowi on 55%. Obviously gonna take a while until results are anywhere near final (next month?), but doesn't look like an upset at this point.

Time for BI to cut, no?

Yeah, it'll take a while until the official result would be announced.

Ahaha let's see

[Indosekai]

I'm hoping Widodo wins, he sounds like the better candidate to me.

I'm agreed with you, bro

[Brightlake]

The election already done, Widodo won 4-5% over subianto. At least economically there would not be a radical change for the nation and SEA region but subianto follower will not willingly accept the result and their society may be divided apart between widodo followers (mostly nationalist) and subianto follower (mixed kind of interest start form calliphate supporters, etc).

I have yet to see the final count, since according to the previous developments, one can guess who will win

Yes, I also think that there won't be any radical changes for the nation itself, though given the time.....who knows?

Your prediction about the post-election situation is pretty bleak, though it's really possible that there will be divide in the society.

@Samudera Darussalam, thank you for your steady answer, i m eager to read it attentively.

Okay.

I'm not mean that there will be a massive demonstration or riot like 98 or something, but "cebong" and "kampret" phenomenon will continue occurs. Both Hizbut tahrir & PKS (the incarnation of Ikhwanul muslimin in Indonesia) will continue moving since they oppressed by widodo. Subianto himself may be didn't care about islamist things or caliphate but everyone against widodo are friends for subianto. Unconsciously this phenomenon will raise islamist movement within the nation. Indonesia is really rich in potential like nickel reserve for future smart battery, etc but with continuous distress in their society then in 20 years without measurable actions then Indonesia will be Indonistan.

I also agree with widodo policy to upgrade their HR since education may reduce radicality but it seem only that will hardly working because Hizbut Tahrir start their movement with universities etc even they infiltrate the education system through influencing teachers. teachers is one of most intolerance occupation in Indonesia can you imagine that. I also hope the best for Indonesia since they have more than enough resources to be super power at least independent, demographic bonus, etc. But if those biggots contionue to grow then you have demographic bomb instead of bonus.

[Outer Sparta]

I'm hoping Widodo wins, he sounds like the better candidate to me.

Especially considering his opponent was married to Suharto's second daughter.

[Obterlaisch]

Number 2. But, Jokowi is winning.