Spoiler Alert: ANC Wins(A South African Vote Thread)

[Heloin]

ACDP is calling on young people to vote and is confident that they'll get a majority government in Western Cape: http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/acdp-aims-for-a-majority-win-in-w-cape/

which they won't. This is DA country and proud of it.

God I hate them but there impossible dreams to make me think isn't that adorable alot.

[The of Japan]

ACDP is calling on young people to vote and is confident that they'll get a majority government in Western Cape: http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/acdp-aims-for-a-majority-win-in-w-cape/

which they won't. This is DA country and proud of it.

God I hate them but there impossible dreams to make me think isn't that adorable alot.

It’s cute to see people dream impossibly big.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Today, the 27th of April, is Freedom day in South Africa, the public holiday marking the first multi-racial democratic elections in South Africa on the 27th of April 1994. As such it also marks the 25 year anniversary of that election. President Cyril Ramaphosa gave his Freedom Day address at Miki Yili Stadium in the Eastern Cape city of Makhanda / Grahamstown today, a city I happen to be in due to studying at the University in it. Ramaphosa's speech focused on criticising Xenophobia (despite the "secure our borders" dog whistle that the ANC, DA, EFF and seemingly all major parties are pushing in this election), calling out white South Africans who still celebrate the old Apartheid South African flag, and spoke about the "great divisions between rich and poor between urban and rural, between men and women, between those who have jobs and those who are unemployed. There are still divisions between those who own land and those who have been deprived of it.” Ramaphosa also held a moment of silence for those killed in the recent flooding in Kwa-Zulu Natal and the Eastern Cape, as well as for the victims of Cyclone Idai, particularly in our neighbouring countries of Mozambique and Zimbabwe. (see https://ewn.co.za/2019/04/27/ramaphosa-laments-sa-s-great-divisions).The effects of this cyclone on the people of these nations have of course been overlooked by western media in particular, because they don't really care about destruction, unless its a fire at Notre Dame

Several South African Air Force (SAAF) jets, planes and helicopters flew over the city to mark the visit, a show of military might that reportedly caused great excitement at the local schools. White Grahamstownians in particular have taken to Facebook to complain about the flyover however, complaining about the cost of flying the planes. Some protesters have protested Ramaphosa's visit, with police out in force to ensure these protesters got nowhere near to the stadium.

Makhanda / Grahamstown has been a traditional ANC stronghold since 1994 in what is already an ANC stronghold province, the Eastern Cape. This election will likely be no different, with most of the town's majority black Xhosa working class supporting the ruling party. As ever, the DA will likely do well in the historically white and wealthy parts of town. The vote at the University Currently Known as Rhodes (UCKAR) / Rhodes University is likely to be split between ANC supporters, DA supporters and EFF supporters, with the EFF's left wing populist policies - especially around free decolonised higher education - sure to play well there.

There are a few voters in Makhanda / Grahamstown, like myself, who won't be voting for any of the "big three" parties. Given South Africa's Proportional Representation voting system these votes will only 'go to waste' if the minor party voted for gets somewhere around less than 0.2% of the national vote, with an overly-simplistic way of explaining the voting system being that every 0.25% a party wins gains them another seat in the 400 seat National Assembly. Given the specifics of calculating seats however, a number of parties that get a bit below 0.25% national support do still tend to end up with one MP in the National Assembly.

[Rezmaeristan]

I'd support some kind of right-center coalition with DA and the regionalist parties.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Update: There are a growing number of complaints from both the DA and EFF over the Freedom Day celebrations serving as more of an ANC rally than as an actual celebration of Freedom Day by President Cyril Ramaphosa, with some white DA supporters objecting to having protest placards taken away from them, and EFF members objecting to being denied entry to the event as they were wearing t-shirts with the EFF logo colours and slogans on them.

There is actually a bit of a point of contention here, as if today's celebration was an ANC rally, then having an Air Force flyover comes across as using the President's powers and position to favour his own party disproportionally. If this was a national celebration however, with the President present in his capacity as the President of South Africa, then denying EFF members entry in particular is an issue. Of course it is very difficult to separate Ramaphosa "President of South Africa" from Ramaphosa "leader of the ruling party", which is an issue that no doubt effects all nations with representative democracies. The issue likely won't effect the outcome of the election that much, but it has put a dampener on the Freedom Day celebrations, one which was always bound to be contentious given the political season however. (See https://ewn.co.za/2019/04/27/official-freedom-day-celebration-marred-by-eff-vs-anc-stand-off?).

[Shrillland]

Today, the 27th of April, is Freedom day in South Africa, the public holiday marking the first multi-racial democratic elections in South Africa on the 27th of April 1994. As such it also marks the 25 year anniversary of that election. President Cyril Ramaphosa gave his Freedom Day address at Miki Yili Stadium in the Eastern Cape city of Makhanda / Grahamstown today, a city I happen to be in due to studying at the University in it. Ramaphosa's speech focused on criticising Xenophobia (despite the "secure our borders" dog whistle that the ANC, DA, EFF and seemingly all major parties are pushing in this election), calling out white South Africans who still celebrate the old Apartheid South African flag, and spoke about the "great divisions between rich and poor between urban and rural, between men and women, between those who have jobs and those who are unemployed. There are still divisions between those who own land and those who have been deprived of it.” Ramaphosa also held a moment of silence for those killed in the recent flooding in Kwa-Zulu Natal and the Eastern Cape, as well as for the victims of Cyclone Idai, particularly in our neighbouring countries of Mozambique and Zimbabwe. (see https://ewn.co.za/2019/04/27/ramaphosa-laments-sa-s-great-divisions).The effects of this cyclone on the people of these nations have of course been overlooked by western media in particular, because they don't really care about destruction, unless its a fire at Notre Dame

Several South African Air Force (SAAF) jets, planes and helicopters flew over the city to mark the visit, a show of military might that reportedly caused great excitement at the local schools. White Grahamstownians in particular have taken to Facebook to complain about the flyover however, complaining about the cost of flying the planes. Some protesters have protested Ramaphosa's visit, with police out in force to ensure these protesters got nowhere near to the stadium.

Makhanda / Grahamstown has been a traditional ANC stronghold since 1994 in what is already an ANC stronghold province, the Eastern Cape. This election will likely be no different, with most of the town's majority black Xhosa working class supporting the ruling party. As ever, the DA will likely do well in the historically white and wealthy parts of town. The vote at the University Currently Known as Rhodes (UCKAR) / Rhodes University is likely to be split between ANC supporters, DA supporters and EFF supporters, with the EFF's left wing populist policies - especially around free decolonised higher education - sure to play well there.

There are a few voters in Makhanda / Grahamstown, like myself, who won't be voting for any of the "big three" parties. Given South Africa's Proportional Representation voting system these votes will only 'go to waste' if the minor party voted for gets somewhere around less than 0.2% of the national vote, with an overly-simplistic way of explaining the voting system being that every 0.25% a party wins gains them another seat in the 400 seat National Assembly. Given the specifics of calculating seats however, a number of parties that get a bit below 0.25% national support do still tend to end up with one MP in the National Assembly.

Well, just vote for who you like. It's not like anybody's going to beat ANC anyway, though they really need to lose for a change.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Well, just vote for who you like. It's not like anybody's going to beat ANC anyway, though they really need to lose for a change.

I think its less important that they lose, and more important that they are put under pressure from the left and forced to move in that direction. The party has been moving steadily further and further to the economic right and neoliberal economics ever since 1994, and the emergence of the EFF and other parties on the left that are pressuring them to genuinely consider the needs of the poor does seem to have them at least compromising and moving slightly in that direction. The party losing some of its dominance will also probably help make it clear to them that they need to work harder in cracking down on issues of corruption and mismanagement in their own ranks, or else see a continued spill of support from the party.

In truth the ANC are far from the worst option out there, and there are far many worse parties, especially more overtly xenohobic parties, far-right white supremacist parties like Front Nasionale and religious fundamentalist parties like the ACDP. Fortunately none of those parties will ever win.

[Heloin]

Well, just vote for who you like. It's not like anybody's going to beat ANC anyway, though they really need to lose for a change.

I think its less important that they lose, and more important that they are put under pressure from the left and forced to move in that direction. The party has been moving steadily further and further to the economic right and neoliberal economics ever since 1994, and the emergence of the EFF and other parties on the left that are pressuring them to genuinely consider the needs of the poor does seem to have them at least compromising and moving slightly in that direction. The party losing some of its dominance will also probably help make it clear to them that they need to work harder in cracking down on issues of corruption and mismanagement in their own ranks, or else see a continued spill of support from the party.

In truth the ANC are far from the worst option out there, and there are far many worse parties, especially more overtly xenohobic parties, far-right white supremacist parties like Front Nasionale and religious fundamentalist parties like the ACDP. Fortunately none of those parties will ever win.

If your talking xenophobic parties then the EFF is the worse threat then the FN and ACDP will probably ever be. Violent bunch of bigots who are now the third largest party, compared to a tiny group of racist Afrikaners and homophobes.

[New Socialist South Africa]

I think its less important that they lose, and more important that they are put under pressure from the left and forced to move in that direction. The party has been moving steadily further and further to the economic right and neoliberal economics ever since 1994, and the emergence of the EFF and other parties on the left that are pressuring them to genuinely consider the needs of the poor does seem to have them at least compromising and moving slightly in that direction. The party losing some of its dominance will also probably help make it clear to them that they need to work harder in cracking down on issues of corruption and mismanagement in their own ranks, or else see a continued spill of support from the party.

In truth the ANC are far from the worst option out there, and there are far many worse parties, especially more overtly xenohobic parties, far-right white supremacist parties like Front Nasionale and religious fundamentalist parties like the ACDP. Fortunately none of those parties will ever win.

If your talking xenophobic parties then the EFF is the worse threat then the FN and ACDP will probably ever be. Violent bunch of bigots who are now the third largest party, compared to a tiny group of racist Afrikaners and homophobes.

I have my issues with the EFF, and I don't trust Malema as far as I can throw him, but the party is hardly all bigots. The party has had a number of interesting and talented MPs, particularly those just out of the spotlight, and I know some highly intelligent and good people who support them. They have a fair number of violent bigots in there too, as well as having a distinctly authoritarian streak and buying into the "secure our borders" dog whistle, which helped convince me not to support them, but they are far better than the ACDP and Front Nasionaal.

The ACDP still pride themselves in being the only party to oppose the constitution because it guaranteed a woman's right to choose, have been opposed to gay marriage and even opposed contraceptives for a while, to say nothing of being far more xenophobic in their outlook, or of their obsession with privatisation. Front Nasionaal are just a collection of far-right white supremacists thugs reminiscing about the 'good old days' of Apartheid. The EFF, by comparison, has made significant moves towards protecting women's rights and LGBT+ rights, and won't take any of Front Nasionaal or other white supremacist groups' bullshit. I'm still not voting for them, but there is no doubt they are having a positive effect in reopening economic discussions in the most economically unequal country on earth after decades of the ANC shifting away from popular policies in favour of neoliberalism.

[Heloin]

If your talking xenophobic parties then the EFF is the worse threat then the FN and ACDP will probably ever be. Violent bunch of bigots who are now the third largest party, compared to a tiny group of racist Afrikaners and homophobes.

I have my issues with the EFF, and I don't trust Malema as far as I can throw him, but the party is hardly all bigots. The party has had a number of interesting and talented MPs, particularly those just out of the spotlight, and I know some highly intelligent and good people who support them. They have a fair number of violent bigots in there too, as well as having a distinctly authoritarian streak and buying into the "secure our borders" dog whistle, which helped convince me not to support them, but they are far better than the ACDP and Front Nasionaal.

The ACDP still pride themselves in being the only party to oppose the constitution because it guaranteed a woman's right to choose, have been opposed to gay marriage and even opposed contraceptives for a while, to say nothing of being far more xenophobic in their outlook, or of their obsession with privatisation. Front Nasionaal are just a collection of far-right white supremacists thugs reminiscing about the 'good old days' of Apartheid. The EFF, by comparison, has made significant moves towards protecting women's rights and LGBT+ rights, and won't take any of Front Nasionaal or other white supremacist groups' bullshit. I'm still not voting for them, but there is no doubt they are having a positive effect in reopening economic discussions in the most economically unequal country on earth after decades of the ANC shifting away from popular policies in favour of neoliberalism.

To be honest if it weren't for the undercurrent of anti-White anti-Indian racism, xenophobia, and their flirtation with authoritarianism then I'd be more alright with the. But the problem is a good chunk of there leadership are that and it helps feed into the myths that the FN and AWB keep trying to push. Also as they are now they do quite a bit remind me of ZANU-PF and I have reasons for not trusting parties that remind me of them.

You won't get any argument from me against the ACDP and the FN, horrible groups the lot of them. I'd vote for UDM if I could, though I doubt how well they'll do.

[Trollgaard]

Does no one care for the Zulus anymore?

[Shrillland]

Does no one care for the Zulus anymore?

We do, but IFP is so incredibly right-wing that no one wants to touch it.

[New Socialist South Africa]

I have my issues with the EFF, and I don't trust Malema as far as I can throw him, but the party is hardly all bigots. The party has had a number of interesting and talented MPs, particularly those just out of the spotlight, and I know some highly intelligent and good people who support them. They have a fair number of violent bigots in there too, as well as having a distinctly authoritarian streak and buying into the "secure our borders" dog whistle, which helped convince me not to support them, but they are far better than the ACDP and Front Nasionaal.

The ACDP still pride themselves in being the only party to oppose the constitution because it guaranteed a woman's right to choose, have been opposed to gay marriage and even opposed contraceptives for a while, to say nothing of being far more xenophobic in their outlook, or of their obsession with privatisation. Front Nasionaal are just a collection of far-right white supremacists thugs reminiscing about the 'good old days' of Apartheid. The EFF, by comparison, has made significant moves towards protecting women's rights and LGBT+ rights, and won't take any of Front Nasionaal or other white supremacist groups' bullshit. I'm still not voting for them, but there is no doubt they are having a positive effect in reopening economic discussions in the most economically unequal country on earth after decades of the ANC shifting away from popular policies in favour of neoliberalism.

To be honest if it weren't for the undercurrent of anti-White anti-Indian racism, xenophobia, and their flirtation with authoritarianism then I'd be more alright with the. But the problem is a good chunk of there leadership are that and it helps feed into the myths that the FN and AWB keep trying to push. Also as they are now they do quite a bit remind me of ZANU-PF and I have reasons for not trusting parties that remind me of them.

You won't get any argument from me against the ACDP and the FN, horrible groups the lot of them. I'd vote for UDM if I could, though I doubt how well they'll do.

I certainly get what you are saying. I don’t trust Malema or Floyd in particular, and they are the party’s highest ranking two leaders. I voted for the UDM the last time around, even though I knew they wouldn’t do well. I was going to vote for them this time as well, but I was utterly disappointed by their manifesto, which is a rather short and vague document that adopts to “secure our borders” dog whistle that is so popular with lots of parties in this election. I’m still deciding between just spoiling my vote or casting a protest vote for the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party, even though I know it won’t win. I’m leaning towards the latter however, given that spoiling my vote really won’t do anything, aside from just being noted.

[Star Conqueror]

Vote BLF and Cape Party

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPxU52IfnFk

[New Socialist South Africa]

An interesting new poll has been released by the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), which suggests that the ANC will get 49.5% nationally (down sharply) in the coming election, which would put them just below enough votes to govern without a coalition, with the DA in second at 21.3% nationally (down slightly) and the EFF in third (14.9%), which would be a very good showing for them.

https://www.news24.com/elections/news/elections-2019-anc-da-losing-majority-in-major-provinces-according-to-latest-irr-poll-20190430 and https://irr.org.za/reports/criterion-report/files/thecriterionreportv2n3-april2019.pdf

Before you get too excited / worried however (depending on where you fall on the political spectrum), I should note that there does seem to be a tendency for the ANC to outperform polling data, possibly simply due to polling focusing too much on more politically competitive urban voters, while missing some the the ANC's loyal black rural working class voters. With that said however, this poll can hardly be seen as good news for the ANC, even if it is underestimating their share of the vote. It also can't be seen as anything but good news for the EFF, while being slightly bad news for the DA if it proves correct, showing a slight drop in their support.

The other interesting section of the support is the breakdown of support by race within the three major parties, with the ANC being dominantly made up of the black African majority, but also winning some Coloured, White and Indian voters:

ANC: 96% black voters, 1% white voters, 2% coloured voters and 1% Indian voters

The DA containing a sizable white South African 'base', but also winning over a Coloured, black and Indian voters (likely particularly among the middle and upper classes - although this doesn't come from the polling):

DA: 27% black voters, 37% white voters, 28% coloured voters and 8% Indian voters

The EFF also dominantly made of the black African majority, with some Coloured and white voters, but seemingly almost no Indian voters:

EFF: 97% black voters, 1% white voters, 3% coloured voters and 0% Indian voters

The poll also breaks down support for parties among racial groups:

61.8% of all black voters indicated they would vote ANC, compared to 18.7% for the EFF and 7.4% for the DA - with the ANC taking the lion's share and the EFF in a distant second, the DA behind at third, with the remaining 12.1% presumably supporting other parties or no parties.

68.6% of all white voters indicated they would vote DA, compared to 4.3% for the ANC and 0.8% for the EFF; - the DA still clearly being the "home of white voters", with the ANC in a distant second, the EFF winning over comparatively very few white voters, with the remaining 26.3% presumably going to other parties or no parties. I suspect that a fair share of this 26.3% will / would vote for the VF+.

68.5% of all Coloured voters indicated they would vote DA, compared to 10.9% for the ANC and 4.7% for the EFF; and - the DA winning the most Coloured voters, with the ANC in a distant second and EFF in third again, but both fairing better this time. The remaining 15.9% presumably going to other parties or no parties. Patricia de Lille's "Good" may win over a fair number of Coloured voters.

60.4% of Indian voters indicated they would vote DA, compared to 12.6% for the ANC and 0% for the EFF. - the DA again securing the majority among this minority group. The ANC doing quite well with 12.6%, far below the DA share. Almost no Indian voters (none in the survey) backing the EFF. The remaining 27% of voters presumably going to other parties or no parties.

All of these are obviously based on a poll, one that is bound to have its flaws and inaccuracies, but it does nonetheless give a good general picture of the general support among the "big three" parties right now, and a sense of their racial makeup.

[Shrillland]

That's certainly a milestone if it were to hold, but I think ANC will go over the 50% mark next week. In fact, my projection will be an ANC majority with 225-235 seats and Ramaphosa's reelection.

[New Socialist South Africa]

That's certainly a milestone if it were to hold, but I think ANC will go over the 50% mark next week. In fact, my projection will be an ANC majority with 225-235 seats and Ramaphosa's reelection.

I certainly agree. I'll be somewhat surprised if they get less than 230 seats, and I'll be shocked they get less than 200.

[Major-Tom]

Got my Economist in the mail recently and was shocked to see this endorsement.

Shocking in part because The Economist has a reputation as a centre to centre-right liberal magazine, one that generally backs Macron types. Also shocking because in their defense of Ramaphosa and the ANC, they manage to make the DA look miles better in comparison.

[New Socialist South Africa]

With just three sleeps left before voting day on Wednesday the 8th of May 2019, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has started putting up new posters in a last ditch effort to win voters, hoping to outperform the polls which suggest they will face a slight decline in the percentage of votes they secure. If the DA does lose votes, it would be the first time it has happened to the party in its history, with the DA and its predecessor the Democratic Party (DP), having been on a fairly slow but steady upward climb ever since the first multi-racial democratic elections in 1994.

So what is the DA's new strategy? What new posters have they been putting up all over Makhanda / Grahamstown to make their case? Well just these beauties of course:



That's the DA's last ditch strategy. "Stop the ANC and EFF". Hardly inspiring stuff.

It is sure to drive out core DA voters of course, voters who can fly into a rage at the words "the ANC have actually done some good things" or "the EFF actually have some good policies". As a strategy to win over undecided or apathetic voters however, this purely negative campaign appeal is unlikely to do anything, and simply speaks to the panic seeming to set in at DA headquarters, no matter how much they deny it.

[New Socialist South Africa]

South African joker "The Kiffness" has released a video titled "Mmusi Maimane" commenting on the often middle-class and upper-middle class nature of the DA and their supporters. Note that the Buffalo usually on the 100 rand note has been replaced by a gorilla, possibly as a tribute to our dearly departed comrade in heaven, Harambe.

Mmusi Maimane

More joke and parody videos and comics are sure to come out over the following days and in response to the election results, whatever they may be.

[Heloin]

I still don't understand how the DA, a left of centre party who when they were the DP were a major part of the movement to end Apartheid, have nowadays been painted as almost a successor to the National Party.

[Heloin]

It is sure to drive out core DA voters of course, voters who can fly into a rage at the words "the ANC have actually done some good things" or "the EFF actually have some good policies". As a strategy to win over undecided or apathetic voters however, this purely negative campaign appeal is unlikely to do anything, and simply speaks to the panic seeming to set in at DA headquarters, no matter how much they deny it.

They're impressively tame attack ads.

[New Socialist South Africa]

I still don't understand how the DA, a left of centre party who when they were the DP were a major part of the movement to end Apartheid, have nowadays been painted as almost a successor to the National Party.

It is the case that a lot of old white Nationalist voters shifted to voting for the DA from 1999 and 2004 onward, after the New National Party (NNP) collapsed. I fairness though, the Nationalists were reformed moderate conservatives towards the end, and the NNP was never quite sure what it was. The hardliner Apartheid defenders tended to go to the VF+, although they've reformed quite a bit too. Front Nasionaal is the only place that is really left for the remaining hardliner Apartheid defenders.

[LiberNovusAmericae]

I still don't understand how the DA, a left of centre party who when they were the DP were a major part of the movement to end Apartheid, have nowadays been painted as almost a successor to the National Party.

It is the case that a lot of old white Nationalist voters shifted to voting for the DA from 1999 and 2004 onward, after the New National Party (NNP) collapsed. I fairness though, the Nationalists were reformed moderate conservatives towards the end, and the NNP was never quite sure what it was. The hardliner Apartheid defenders tended to go to the VF+, although they've reformed quite a bit too. Front Nasionaal is the only place that is really left for the remaining hardliner Apartheid defenders.

The AWB also exists, but they're more of a militia than a party.

[New Socialist South Africa]

It is sure to drive out core DA voters of course, voters who can fly into a rage at the words "the ANC have actually done some good things" or "the EFF actually have some good policies". As a strategy to win over undecided or apathetic voters however, this purely negative campaign appeal is unlikely to do anything, and simply speaks to the panic seeming to set in at DA headquarters, no matter how much they deny it.

They're impressively tame attack ads.

I'm not sure if I can even call them attack ads, it doesn't even say why people shouldn't vote for them. I'm just somewhat shocked that they were put out by the DA at all, because they really don't even seem to encourage undecided voters to vote for them or dissuade others from voting ANC or EFF.