UK Politics Thread IX: The Masses Against the Classes

[Tinhampton]

Wait, isn't there some bit of London with 9,000 inhabitants that's been de facto independent since 1974?

[Philjia]

Wait, isn't there some bit of London with 9,000 inhabitants that's been de facto independent since 1974?

Are you confusing real life with the plot of Passport to Pimlico?

[Bears Armed]

As a sovereign nation, we should have the right to control our own borders.
we have a housing crisis as well as a NHS crisis.Uncontrolled immigration would just further strain these services

Re the NHS you could idfkn... fund the damn thing and not view it as a bottomless hedge fund to siphon £££'s from in the name of austerity?

More money is being put into the NHS... but its demands are never satisfied...

[Fartsniffage]

Re the NHS you could idfkn... fund the damn thing and not view it as a bottomless hedge fund to siphon £££'s from in the name of austerity?

More money is being put into the NHS... but its demands are never satisfied...

You mean apart from the fact spending has been on the decrease since 2009?

[Vassenor]

Re the NHS you could idfkn... fund the damn thing and not view it as a bottomless hedge fund to siphon £££'s from in the name of austerity?

More money is being put into the NHS... but its demands are never satisfied...

That's what happens after years of chronic underfunding from a Government looking for excuses to privatise the damn thing.

[Tybra]

Finished my spreadsheet.

Obvious disclaimer - I'm not a data analyst. There is probably some methodology that could be improved upon, and I'm happy to hear what can be improved upon. Time to spoil them out methinks.

Median Weekly wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency and Average Weekly Wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)(Image)

Not a huge difference between the two - the trend that median/average lower weekly wage constituencies were more likely to vote leave appears consistent.

Percentage of people with Degree level or higher vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

This probably ties in with the distribution of wealth as observed in the previous two.

Average House Price vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

Again, correlation with weekly wage is probably in play here.

Average age vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

I was actually surprised there appears to be next to no correlation between the average age of the constituency and how they voted for Brexit.

Percentage non-UK born vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

I don't have any particular feedback on this one right now.

Spreadsheet is here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NUz8jy ... sp=sharing

I've picked up the raw data from the office of National Statistics, the Commons Library on median gross weekly pay for full-time employees per constituency, and the data from the 2016 referendum from Professor Chris Hanretty, a political scientist at Royal Holloway University, who combined official results and the BBC data with statistical methods in order to estimate the proportion of Leave and Remain voters in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales.

That last one isn't ideal, but it's the most accurate record I could find.

I threw all factors in a OLS regression and this popped out of it.

Code: Select all

                            OLS Regression Results                           
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   R-squared:                       0.630
Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.628
Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     356.0
Date:                Wed, 29 May 2019   Prob (F-statistic):          5.14e-135
Time:                        18:52:30   Log-Likelihood:                 788.28
No. Observations:                 632   AIC:                            -1569.
Df Residuals:                     628   BIC:                            -1551.
Df Model:                           3                                         
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         
=====================================================================================================
                                        coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                 0.6969      0.021     33.370      0.000       0.656       0.738
Average Weekly Wage (ONS Data)        0.0003   5.55e-05      5.284      0.000       0.000       0.000
Percentage Non-UK Born (ONS Data)    -0.1562      0.028     -5.541      0.000      -0.212      -0.101
Percentage with Degree (ONS Data)    -1.1573      0.054    -21.368      0.000      -1.264      -1.051
==============================================================================
Omnibus:                      177.500   Durbin-Watson:                   1.109
Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              385.452
Skew:                          -1.527   Prob(JB):                     2.00e-84
Kurtosis:                       5.305   Cond. No.                     1.06e+04
==============================================================================

Rather than looking at each factor individually it looked at how all factors influence the vote together. The Adj R-square explains how well the regression model fits the data, 62.8% is explained by the data which is an ok relationship. Weekly wages of the ONS was a better fit so i threw out the other one to avoid collinearity. I also threw out age because it had no relationship with the vote and housing price because it had to many missing values for my taste.

The coeff show the increase of each category for each increase in the Percentage Voting Leave. Which tells us that for each increase of 1 in Average Weekly Wage the Percentage Voting Leave increases by 0.0003, for each increase in Percentage Non-UK Born it decreases by 0.15, and for Percentage degree it decrease by 1.15. Rather than percent the scale was from 0 to 1 (=100%).

Interestingly, if you just look at a one on one relationship between Weekly Wage and Percentage Leave the coeff becomes -0.0007 with an R of 0.245. Weekly wage alone would likely be insufficient to explain who voted leave and you would also need to include the percentage with degrees and percentage of non-uk borne citizens.

[Bears Armed]

More money is being put into the NHS... but its demands are never satisfied...

That's what happens after years of chronic underfunding from a Government looking for excuses to privatise the damn thing.

The BBC -- which isn't exactly pro-Conservative -- says that you're wrong: See the first graph.

[Philjia]

That's what happens after years of chronic underfunding from a Government looking for excuses to privatise the damn thing.

The BBC -- which isn't exactly pro-Conservative -- says that you're wrong: See the first graph.

The same article explains that our health spending is below average for the EU, health spending has slowed, and the vast majority goes on frontline care rather than social care, which is a fatal disparity with our ageing population.

[Ostroeuropa]

The BBC -- which isn't exactly pro-Conservative -- says that you're wrong: See the first graph.

The same article explains that our health spending is below average for the EU, health spending has slowed, and the vast majority goes on frontline care rather than social care, which is a fatal disparity with our ageing population.

It also ignores that Conservative policies in general make people more ill and more in need of healthcare. It is cheaper to have a less shit society and not break it in the first place than to break it and then pay doctors to fix it.

It's like up and deciding to work your people an extra hour a day, causing them stress related illnesses, and then spending more money than you gained from the extra work hour for doctors to make them better.

The single biggest predictor of poor health is poverty, and that has increased under Conservatives. It is cheaper to pay for someone to have food than it is to starve them two days of the week for a period of years, then pay hundreds of thousands to deal with the cancers they develop from long term stress to their system.

An example of this in action is the practice by some countries and charities to issue prescriptions for healthy food when someone is obese and effectively buy their food for them, instead of waiting for them to develop obesity related health problems before medical intervention. At around 60% compliance by patients, there's enough of a positive impact to save money overall by preventing enough problems in the first place.

It's also reformative because the prescriptions can be discontinued after a while and the person will continue their new eating habits, rather than needing to spend decades and decades paying for insulin, for example.

In general, this is why Conservatism is shit. It's this problem writ large.

"Our firefighters are underfunded and everything is burning and it's the Tories fault."

"Oh yeah? Typical leftist lie, they spent 4 years with a frozen budget and then had a recent increase of 2%, so there."

"...The tories also completely deregulated building regulations and gave out government contracts to a company that built things out of wood held together with oil. 2% isn't going to cut it if that's the kind of nonsense you want tolerated in society."

Barely an exaggeration with Greenfell.

Under a government that took Social Health seriously, the budget increase offered by the Tories might be workable. Under people who may as well be debating whether we really need regulations on what water sources people take a shit in because freedom and capitalism, it's not.

Just one single Tory Policy, the introduction of the welfare cap, produced an increase of hundreds of thousands of cases of mental illness, tens of thousands of acts of self-harm, thousands of malnutrition, etc.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

Alas, now even DI has betrayed Brexit. Not even the noble Carl Benjamin can save us now!

Aware this is banter but...

Brexit betrayed most of its voters the moment its elite supporters bought into the idea that the government rather than the people should decide what kind of Brexit should occur. The Brexit campaign was a fairly broad church and I hardly think that the majority of its voters voted how they did because they wanted to expand global free trade and switch the source of immigration in favour of those from further away - seemingly the position of most government arch-Brexiters, the shysters who laughably present themselves as noble defenders of the popular will and """real""" Brexit.

Brexit Party pursued strategic ambiguity by not having a manifesto, and many who are still on board the train are those who've terminally dug in their heels and are very willing to get fooled again because they don't want to acknowledge to the Remainer acquaintances they've had long arguments with that actually yeah they were swindled, whoops.

The swindling didn't happen at the time of the referendum though, it happened after it.

I actually did support Brexit because I wanted to expand global free trade, in fact the idea that we can make our own trade deals with the bits of the worlds economy that are growing was one of the key reasons. Unlike 2015 however, I now do not care about immigration, not one little bit. Recently I've gotten all bleeding heart liberal and decided that people should be allowed to freely move between all countries, with the idea of a passport driven into the history books.

[The Huskar Social Union]

The Nigel Farage fan club apparently has a plan for the Irish Border.


But they cant tell anyone apparently when asked a simple question by a presenter.

[Ifreann]

The Nigel Farage fan club apparently has a plan for the Irish Border.


But they cant tell anyone apparently when asked a simple question by a presenter.

Oooh, secret plans.

[The Huskar Social Union]

The Nigel Farage fan club apparently has a plan for the Irish Border.


But they cant tell anyone apparently when asked a simple question by a presenter.

Oooh, secret plans.

The Brexit Party was created by UKIP.

There are many copies.

And they have a plan.

[Hirota]

Finished my spreadsheet.

Obvious disclaimer - I'm not a data analyst. There is probably some methodology that could be improved upon, and I'm happy to hear what can be improved upon. Time to spoil them out methinks.

Median Weekly wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency and Average Weekly Wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)(Image)

Not a huge difference between the two - the trend that median/average lower weekly wage constituencies were more likely to vote leave appears consistent.

Percentage of people with Degree level or higher vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

This probably ties in with the distribution of wealth as observed in the previous two.

Average House Price vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

Again, correlation with weekly wage is probably in play here.

Average age vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

I was actually surprised there appears to be next to no correlation between the average age of the constituency and how they voted for Brexit.

Percentage non-UK born vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituency

(Image)

I don't have any particular feedback on this one right now.

Spreadsheet is here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NUz8jy ... sp=sharing

I've picked up the raw data from the office of National Statistics, the Commons Library on median gross weekly pay for full-time employees per constituency, and the data from the 2016 referendum from Professor Chris Hanretty, a political scientist at Royal Holloway University, who combined official results and the BBC data with statistical methods in order to estimate the proportion of Leave and Remain voters in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales.

That last one isn't ideal, but it's the most accurate record I could find.

I threw all factors in a OLS regression and this popped out of it.

Code: Select all

                            OLS Regression Results                           
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   R-squared:                       0.630
Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.628
Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     356.0
Date:                Wed, 29 May 2019   Prob (F-statistic):          5.14e-135
Time:                        18:52:30   Log-Likelihood:                 788.28
No. Observations:                 632   AIC:                            -1569.
Df Residuals:                     628   BIC:                            -1551.
Df Model:                           3                                         
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         
=====================================================================================================
                                        coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                 0.6969      0.021     33.370      0.000       0.656       0.738
Average Weekly Wage (ONS Data)        0.0003   5.55e-05      5.284      0.000       0.000       0.000
Percentage Non-UK Born (ONS Data)    -0.1562      0.028     -5.541      0.000      -0.212      -0.101
Percentage with Degree (ONS Data)    -1.1573      0.054    -21.368      0.000      -1.264      -1.051
==============================================================================
Omnibus:                      177.500   Durbin-Watson:                   1.109
Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              385.452
Skew:                          -1.527   Prob(JB):                     2.00e-84
Kurtosis:                       5.305   Cond. No.                     1.06e+04
==============================================================================

Rather than looking at each factor individually it looked at how all factors influence the vote together. The Adj R-square explains how well the regression model fits the data, 62.8% is explained by the data which is an ok relationship. Weekly wages of the ONS was a better fit so i threw out the other one to avoid collinearity. I also threw out age because it had no relationship with the vote and housing price because it had to many missing values for my taste.

The coeff show the increase of each category for each increase in the Percentage Voting Leave. Which tells us that for each increase of 1 in Average Weekly Wage the Percentage Voting Leave increases by 0.0003, for each increase in Percentage Non-UK Born it decreases by 0.15, and for Percentage degree it decrease by 1.15. Rather than percent the scale was from 0 to 1 (=100%).

Interestingly, if you just look at a one on one relationship between Weekly Wage and Percentage Leave the coeff becomes -0.0007 with an R of 0.245. Weekly wage alone would likely be insufficient to explain who voted leave and you would also need to include the percentage with degrees and percentage of non-uk borne citizens.

Ha, I'm looking at how to use Power BI to run linear regressions at the moment as part of a larger piece to try and get up to speed on Power BI, which work is starting to adopt in place of excel. If you'd said OLS regression to me last week I would not have any idea what you were on about...even now it's a bit out of my depth, but I'm getting there.

But this is interesting stuff, at least for me personally, so thank you very much for that.

[Vassenor]

Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%

[Duhon]

Oooh, secret plans.

The Brexit Party was created by UKIP.

There are many copies.

And they have a plan.

I'd say lewd, but porn's banned in Britain so --

[Duhon]

Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%

Ah, the sweet, sweet taste of freedom and sovereignty! Savor the incoming failure!

[Greater vakolicci haven]

I wish Davis would change his mind about whether to run, he's the only possible candidate who could make me a tory.

[Bears Armed]

Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%

From that article:

The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.

Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%

From that article:

The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.

Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.

Also from that article:
The SMMT said car firms had brought forward their annual stoppages normally scheduled for the summer holidays.

These stoppages happen anyway, just at a different time this year.

[Vassenor]

Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%

From that article:

The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.

Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.

Right, because how dare we suggest that a stoppage conducted to minimise disruption over the intended exit period would impact production.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

From that article:

The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.

Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.

Right, because how dare we suggest that a stoppage conducted to minimise disruption over the intended exit period would impact production.

The stoppage that was just brought forward from the summer and would have happened anyway 3 months later?

[Souseiseki]

The Brexit Party was created by UKIP.

There are many copies.

And they have a plan.

I'd say lewd, but porn's banned in Britain so --

there is, to my knowledge, no legal precedent or relevant legislation in regards to clones

[Hirota]

Right, because how dare we suggest that a stoppage conducted to minimise disruption over the intended exit period would impact production.

The stoppage that was just brought forward from the summer and would have happened anyway 3 months later?

Why does anyone still expect Vass to read more than the big letters at the top of an article?

But car production has a habit of peaks and troughs that will affect production from time to time. It recovers often by itself, and as Bears has pointed out, other factors than Brexit are also to blame.

So yeah, whilst it's not a good thing, it's not exactly the apocalypse that certain people seem to hope will appear to vindicate the doomsaying and wailing.

[Bears Armed]

Why does anyone still expect Vass to read more than the big letters at the top of an article?

i haven't spent much time in NSG before this...