How could the Axis Powers win WW2?

[Jolthig]

Well, you have to keep in mind that none of the "Axis" powers really liked or respected each other. Hitler, Hiriohito, and Mussolini all had mutually exclusive ideas on who the chosen people were (they all said "mine are" respectively)

IIRC, the relationship between Japan and Germany was particularly chilly, but I don't remember the exact reason for that.

There’s also the small issue that Italy was actually openly hostile towards Germany as late as the Second Italo-Abyssinian War.

Yeah, and they didnt appreciate Germany for invading Austria.

[Doing it Rightland]

The Short Answer: There isn't really a good way for them to have one

---

1940 Britain
Germany's initial attempt with the Battle of Britain was to break their morale. Quite the opposite happened though, as the British resolve hardened. I saw some posts discussing how Germany could have kept pushing the air war, and once they had superiority, follow it up with a naval invasion. However, the German navy, even with support from the Luftwaffe, was completely incapable of effectively mounting an offensive against the home fleet of the British navy. Even the Kriegsmarine acknowledged early on that an invasion would be difficult.

When To Invade Russia
First off, Germany would have to invade them eventually. If not, Stalin would have certainly invaded Germany once the time was right. The two were really at each others throats, with competing ideologies and racial beliefs, and only really cooperated because neither could afford war with the other in 1939 (Russia being in the middle of purging, and Germany wanting to keep its war on one front. Once Stalin had completed his military restructuring, conflict with the Axis would be inevitable.

So, that begs the question, when would Germany invade the USSR? Eastern Europe has two main weather constraints: winters cold enough to freeze gasoline, and mud seasons. Rain and snow melts in spring and fall make poor eastern roads hard to navigate, especially during WW2. In order to maximize the time not in winter and slowed by mud, you'd have to go during the late spring and summer, and hope for the best. Germany did this historically.

As for the year, Germany couldn't have invaded in 1940, as the vast majority of their forces were still in France. Not to mention Norway and other parts of Southern Europe hadn't been secured yet. By 1942 and beyond, the Soviet Union likely would have been organized enough to the point that Germany's invasion would likely have been beaten back. Thus, 1941 would be really the optimal time to invade.

Japan Not Attacking the Largest Industrial Power in the World (USA)
Japan, being an island nation, was really lacking in resources. Their invasion of Manchuria, and later more of China, helped alleviate this. But, embargoes from the US and west due to those actions put further strain on Japan. They came up with two plans: the Northern and Southern Expansion Doctrines. The Northern one called for an incursion into Siberia, but Japan was halted by the Red Army in Mongolia. They knew their only hope was to invade south, and that the US would join whether they attacked them or not. So, the Japanese figured they ought to hinder the US as much as possible early on, knowing that they only had so much time to win. The timing wasn't great since the carriers weren't there, but strategically, Pearl Harbor made sense.

TLDR the Axis really didn't have a good chance to win, and their actual war policies weren't unreasonable.

[Sicaris]

They couldn’t.

/thread

[Bombadil]

Yeah well Italy was supposed to manage that aspect, you can't expect Germany to protect it's left flank, watch for the threat of Russia on the right flank and then divert forces to the ME as well..

..one could argue that history shows Europe was always unconquerable as a whole.

Russia is a non-concern because of the Non-Aggression Pact. Protecting the Atlantic coast though...

Russia is always a concern. Only in hindsight could one suggest they weren't but the threat of communism dominated the political thought of the 20's and 30's.

[Valentine Z]

Well, it's a few pages late and I was away, but once again, just my sincere thanks for answering my question about the Soviet vs Nazi weaponry.

Guess you do learn something new every day!

[Neanderthaland]

Depends on what you mean by "win." A Man in High Castle style world conquest is impossible. If that's what winning means then just give up. It wont happen. If winning means surviving to the end of the war with more territory then you started with, that's a bit more doable.

It basically would have required Germany reaching a negotiated peace with Britain and handling the Soviets different (maybe not invading at all), Japan staying on the Allies good side an not overextending itself so much, and who Italy doing... who even cares?

[Internationalist Bastard]

You can’t win a war if you don’t make it even happen.

You defeat a superior enemy by denying them battle, so denying them war is a guaranteed win.

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”
Some Nazi mustache guy, 1936

[Thermodolia]

The only way the Nazis could have won WW2 was if they where not Nazis.

[Bombadil]

The only way the Nazis could have won WW2 was if they where not Nazis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK-kWRAVmRU

[Krasny-Volny]

They couldn't. War with the Soviet Union and the US was inevitable. The Soviets had no intention of letting the Nazis go empire building on their own and the US wasn't going to let Britain get conquered. Or Canada, Australia, and the other British allies of great strategic importance to the US. Or the Philippines, which the Japanese needed in order to consolidate their Pacific empire.

Those two would've made mincemeat of Germany and Japan if they continued their empire-building. It was just a question of when.

[Deutschess Kaiserreich]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbim2kGwhpc&t=

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYTrjxOPYNY&t=

[Confederate States of German America]

get nukes before da USA

But they killed many Jewish scientists or they fled, so they couldn't have!!!

No, Heisenberg was considered the preeminent scientist in the Nuclear field prior to and during the war, to the point the Allies hatched a plan to kidnap in an effort to sabotage the project. Up until 1940 the German project was keeping pace with developments in America when it went off the rail for two very specific reasons:

- Heisenberg dismissed graphite as a moderator, and a pretty poorly conducted follow on test supported this assertion. This led to the poor strategic decision of using Heavy Water which, while a better moderator than graphite, was outrageously expensive and pretty much solely dependent on facilities in Norway that were sabotaged in 1943.
- They failed to come up with the proper critical mass theory, consistently overestimating how much uranium was needed.

Both of these mistakes are easily understandable and could've went the other way, as the exact same issue plagued the American project but they managed to get theirs going properly by the end of 1941 after Mark Oliphant set them directly on course for a bomb and Allied scientist teams came up with the right ideas. Very easily could've went the other way for sure.

[Confederate States of German America]

So how likely is the scenario of choking out the UK by conquering the Middle East with the help of Arab and Muslim nationalists? In this case the Axis would focus on Africa and pushing through Egypt. How quick can they get to the Middle East with no Barbarossa happening?

Very. Rommel's advance in early 1942 forced a no confidence vote threat to Churchill. The Italians very easily could've overran the place in 1940 as well, while Malta too was under severe threat from 1940-1942.

[Kowani]

Italy could’ve not been an absolute meme.

[Confederate States of German America]

They couldn't. War with the Soviet Union and the US was inevitable. The Soviets had no intention of letting the Nazis go empire building on their own and the US wasn't going to let Britain get conquered. Or Canada, Australia, and the other British allies of great strategic importance to the US. Or the Philippines, which the Japanese needed in order to consolidate their Pacific empire.

Those two would've made mincemeat of Germany and Japan if they continued their empire-building. It was just a question of when.

Stalin was definitely letting Nazi Empire building go on and had no intention of moving against it until 1942 at the earliest, probably 1943 as it would take until then to have the Red Army reformed. Given his cautious nature, it's far more likely he will seek to use the expanded RKKA to wrangle new concessions from Berlin while seeking to stab Japan in the back.

As for direct conflict, the Soviet was a weak animal compared to the Reich once the initial onrush of Barbarossa had been achieved. Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of Great Powers notes that in 1936 (Before the German expansion of 1938-1940), the Reich contained 14.4% of global war making potential while the USSR held 14%. The end result of the first conquests gave the Germans a definitive lead over the Soviets and then the initial success of Barbarossa cost the Soviets nearly half of their industrial base. In the absence of American Lend Lease, the Soviet war effort would've collapsed by 1943. Even despite said aid, it was a very near run thing; Moscow survived on a prayer during August-October of 1941 and Leningrad did in December. Case Blau in 1942 nearly did the same, and there was a definite opening in 1943 to get a stalemate with the Soviets as there was ongoing peace talks in secret. The United States could be fault to a draw in the event of this.

[Confederate States of German America]

Italy could’ve not been an absolute meme.

Italy had the unfortunate luck of being caught in the middle of a force modernization and expansion, which is exactly the same reason the Red Army got the shit beat out of it in 1941-1942. Unlike the USSR, the Italian industrial and resource base was too small and it lacked a patron like the United States was to Moscow to help it address this. Even despite it, the Italians, if you look at the historical record beyond the memes, gave a good overall account of themselves. The 8th Army in the Russian steppe in 1942 literally fought till it was overrun (in some cases the Soviets literally had to run over positions with tanks to get the Italians to stop fighting), then out of spite burnt their colors and then launched one of the few successful break out attempts the Axis forces around Stalingrad achieved. In the early 1943 fighting around Tunisia, the Anglo-Americans also noted the Italians gave an almost suicidally brave performance in their defense, inflicting heavy losses upon said enemies.

[Confederate States of German America]

The Axis would've had better chances, I think, if Japan had shown a little more restraint. I've begun to wonder if they fucked up on purpose.

Well, you have to keep in mind that none of the "Axis" powers really liked or respected each other. Hitler, Hiriohito, and Mussolini all had mutually exclusive ideas on who the chosen people were (they all said "mine are" respectively)

IIRC, the relationship between Japan and Germany was particularly chilly, but I don't remember the exact reason for that.

Japan was focused on being the "Great Asian Brother" to all other ethnic groups, pushing out the Colonialist Europeans and "liberating" the colonies; the Third Reich was a former colonizer via the Second Reich and a European power, which rubbed Tokyo wrong at the end of the day. Good thing too for the Allies, because an actual technology exchange would've seen both the Reich and Empire benefit greatly.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Italy could’ve not been an absolute meme.

Italy had the unfortunate luck of being caught in the middle of a force modernization and expansion, which is exactly the same reason the Red Army got the shit beat out of it in 1941-1942. Unlike the USSR, the Italian industrial and resource base was too small and it lacked a patron like the United States was to Moscow to help it address this. Even despite it, the Italians, if you look at the historical record beyond the memes, gave a good overall account of themselves. The 8th Army in the Russian steppe in 1942 literally fought till it was overrun (in some cases the Soviets literally had to run over positions with tanks to get the Italians to stop fighting), then out of spite burnt their colors and then launched one of the few successful break out attempts the Axis forces around Stalingrad achieved. In the early 1943 fighting around Tunisia, the Anglo-Americans also noted the Italians gave an almost suicidally brave performance in their defense, inflicting heavy losses upon said enemies.

I feel like fascists need to stop considering their people dying stupidly to be courageous

[Risottia]

Hitler was dumb, don’t invade the Soviets period.

Agreed...if he didn't attack the USSR they might have won

Germany and Italy fighting against the biggest colonial empire ever featuring also the best code crackers? Seriously? Britain while fighting alone managed to sink the Bismarck and half of the best Italian ships. The Axis stood no chance, and that even before attacking the Soviet Union and America.

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

The war was lost in 1914 to 1918. However if you really really want you could pretend that they stood a chance in 1935 during the naval conferences and the eventual decision to focus on a surface fleet. At that point the war was certainly lost against Britain and France. Britain could never have been invaded by paratroopers as in 1939 until after the invasion of the Soviet Union Germany had only a single division of combat paratroopers. You cannot walk across water, you cannot drive tanks across water, you cannot drag artillery across water. As we all know a bombing campaign never works without nuclear weapons. If they had focused on submarines they may have starved Britain into submission in 1940 to 1941. Once the Soviet Union was invaded there was no chance Britain would ever surrender without the Soviet Union completely collapsing. An unlikely prospect the only came close because Germany had the gall to actually attack. Oh and by the way Germany attacked in August not the winter. There are a lot of dumb people who don't realize August is in the summer. Admittedly it isn't in the early summer but the attack happened to coincide perfectly with the disassembly of the stalin line of defenses yet before the molotov line had been constructed. The red army not general winter stop the wehrmacht assault in October in 70 degree weather not in a giant snow storm as popular imagination believes. A more perfect time really would not have been possible without somehow pushing the timetable earlier for not only France but Poland as well.

Suffice to say the only real win scenario would have been if after the Allies had surrendered Czechoslovakia Hitler hadn't invaded Poland at all.

[Confederate States of German America]

Hitler was dumb, don’t invade the Soviets period.

Which ignores the entire strategic rationale for the invasion he did and something that was the core of National Socialist ideology. German leadership, of all categories, had realized by the 1910s that the U.S. was beginning to emerge as the dominant world power. A firm rationale for the Brest-Litovsk terms was that it was realized that Germany needed a market of at least 150 million people as well as the resource base the territories offered to compete with the United States. When this was failed, German thought in the 1920s diverged into two camps: one, the realists who sought to bind Germany to the U.S. as a European partner and thus use the coming American century to their advantage as best they could, and what I will call the militarists, embodied best by the nascent NSDAP of Hitler.

When Mein Kampf was first wrote, Hitler talked little of the United States. What was finished of his second book that we have, we see that within just a few short years of his first that he has fully come to focus on the United States, which he comes to consider as the den of international Jewry and he really begins to take an Anti-Capitalist and Anti-American stance. The entire idea of Lebensraum is, while rooted in some long standing German thinking, comes to be based around the aforementioned core idea that Germany must expand in order to compete with the growing power of North America. Whereas the Kaiserreich sought to establish puppet states and a proto-EU and the Weimar Republic sought a "Special Relationship", the NSDAP-dominated Third Reich come to see outright conquest followed by extermination as the answer.

The USSR fit the bill perfectly in this idea, as it was both geographically close, contained ample resources, farmland and industry, and was, like the United States, filled with racial undesireables under a Bolshevik regime which Nazism was in firm opposition too. Hitler and Stalin both also knew that, in the long run, clashes were likely and Hitler thought it best to get it going while the advantage was his. Aiding this decision was the fact that by June of 1941 the only nation left in Europe besides England capable of challenging the German mastery of the continent was the USSR, and eliminating it would remove that source of hope from the British.

In short, the Nazi rationale was, while indeed genocidal, grounded in clear and understandable geopolitical realizations that meant it not only had an incentive to invade the USSR but that is also needed to. Hitler's gameplan in the long run was always to overrun Europe, take a generation to absorb, and then enter a final conflict with the United States to decide the fate of the world. To do this he needed the territory of the USSR.

As for how he could've won this gambit? Easy, no diversion to Kalinin in October when the Soviets had few troops to defend Moscow coupled with a move to the Volkhov River near Leningrad instead of the Tikhivin area. Such would've meant that by January of 1942 both Leningrad and Moscow would be in German hands and the Soviet state would rapidly collapse thereafter; everyone from Hitler, to FDR and Churchill, and to Stalin realized this at the time.

[NeoOasis]

Agreed...if he didn't attack the USSR they might have won

Germany and Italy fighting against the biggest colonial empire ever featuring also the best code crackers? Seriously? Britain while fighting alone managed to sink the Bismarck and half of the best Italian ships. The Axis stood no chance, and that even before attacking the Soviet Union and America.

The British did not crack the codes alone, nor did they fight alone. In both cases the Poles provided some serious aid in both cracking the code, and in defending British skies. As great as the British were doing in Europe, Asia was quite a different story.

[Confederate States of German America]

Agreed...if he didn't attack the USSR they might have won

Germany and Italy fighting against the biggest colonial empire ever featuring also the best code crackers? Seriously? Britain while fighting alone managed to sink the Bismarck and half of the best Italian ships. The Axis stood no chance, and that even before attacking the Soviet Union and America.

Britain had absolutely no chance against the Axis on its own, fullstop.

[Confederate States of German America]

Italy had the unfortunate luck of being caught in the middle of a force modernization and expansion, which is exactly the same reason the Red Army got the shit beat out of it in 1941-1942. Unlike the USSR, the Italian industrial and resource base was too small and it lacked a patron like the United States was to Moscow to help it address this. Even despite it, the Italians, if you look at the historical record beyond the memes, gave a good overall account of themselves. The 8th Army in the Russian steppe in 1942 literally fought till it was overrun (in some cases the Soviets literally had to run over positions with tanks to get the Italians to stop fighting), then out of spite burnt their colors and then launched one of the few successful break out attempts the Axis forces around Stalingrad achieved. In the early 1943 fighting around Tunisia, the Anglo-Americans also noted the Italians gave an almost suicidally brave performance in their defense, inflicting heavy losses upon said enemies.

I feel like fascists need to stop considering their people dying stupidly to be courageous

It was considered both an effective and heroic performance by the Anglo-Americans, as it delayed the final conquest of Tunisia until May. The Germans managed to get most of their guys out, the Italians didn't but said soldiers bought the time needed to get those aforementioned Germans out. For how critical that was, it pretty much prevented any Cross-Channel invasion in 1943 as well as sucked the Allies into the Italian campaign that had little consequence to the wider war and inflicted serious losses upon them.

[Confederate States of German America]

The Nazis were already doomed by the time America joined. Japan would have been ignored or swiftly defeated by the Soviets.

Indeed. Either America or the Soviets had the ability to crush Germany. My point is, Hitler jumped on BOTH. Takes the phrase "go big or go home" to an all new level.

The United States yes, the Soviets no. Even then, despite their immense industrial advantage by 1945 the JCS and Marshall were getting concerned as the United States was running low on manpower and national morale was showing signs dangerous to prolonged warfare.