¡Voto Plus Ultra 2: Boogaloo Eléctrico!(Spanish Election)

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

A parties' Debate's(none of the national leaders are in attendance) going to start in less than an hour, but Vox will not be a part of it since according to RTVE, it's limited to the top six with representation in the Cortes, which Vox doesn't have. Instead, ERC and PNV(Basque Nationalist Party) will be taking part: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190416/directo-debate-seis-elecciones-generales-2019-rtve/1924860.shtml

Vox has also been excluded from next week's debate for the same reason:http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190416/junta-electoral-central-deja-suspenso-debate-cinco/1924721.shtml

This could be a problem as I see it.

TVE's also set up a page where you can compare all the parties' manifestos. http://www.rtve.es/noticias/elecciones/generales/comparador-programas-electorales/

It may not be but it feels like Vox is getting the cold shoulder.

[Shrillland]

Well, Jordi Sanchez is now saying that PSOE could agree to a Catalan indeoendence referendum to win support in Catalonia: https://news.yahoo.com/catalan-leader-says-spanish-pm-150617895.html

Personally, I don't think that'll happen myself.

[Dresderstan]

Well, Jordi Sanchez is now saying that PSOE could agree to a Catalan indeoendence referendum to win support in Catalonia: https://news.yahoo.com/catalan-leader-says-spanish-pm-150617895.html

Personally, I don't think that'll happen myself.

God no, are they absolutely crazy!? Even if they did win support in Catalonia there is no way they'd accept one because we all know that if a referendum happens it would be an easy Catalan victory for independence.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Well, Jordi Sanchez is now saying that PSOE could agree to a Catalan indeoendence referendum to win support in Catalonia: https://news.yahoo.com/catalan-leader-says-spanish-pm-150617895.html

Personally, I don't think that'll happen myself.

Catalunya brings in too much money to the gov’t coffers. And the Cortes would never agree to a referendum that’ll fragment the country.

[Shrillland]

With just a week to go, this is usually when I make projections, but as many as 40% of Spaniards are still undecided on the eve of tomorrow night's final debate, once again excluding Vox for not actually being in the Cortes: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190421/debate-electoral-campana-expres-para-seducir-40-indecisos/1925444.shtml

TVE's also done a piece on where people are most likely to go to the polls: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190421/agujeros-negros-participacion-espana/1922483.shtml

Casado is imploring conservatives to concentrate on PP since voting for Cs or Vox could lead to PSOE taking over both the Congress and Senate: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190421/casado-pide-concentrar-voto-pp-para-no-facilitarle-escanos-sanchez-senado-votando-cs-vox/1926563.shtml

And now people are wondering if PSOE can form a government: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190421/psoe-sigue-necesitando-nacionalistas-para-formar-gobierno-segun-encuestas/1926521.shtml

Meanwhile, the PNV(Centre-right Basque Nationalists) are willing to stand behind as long as they work to ensure self-government in the Basque Country: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190421/pnv-exige-actualizar-autogobierno-bildu-llama-frente-contra-extrema-derecha/1926564.shtml

Personally, I think they can but it'll be difficult. PSOE is averaging 124-130 in the polls whilst Podemos is averaging 38. Even if they get 168, that's still eight shy of what they need without help from the regionalists. They can get the Basque and Valencian leftists(Bildu and CC, respectively), but even that will only reach 174, possibly 175 if PACMA(an animal rights party) gets a seat. If they can grab PNV, then they could do without Bildu(the Left Basque Nationalists) and possibly CC, but it would be a close balancing act indeed.

PP is faring no better. PP is averaging 78 seats, Cs is at 51, and Vox is at 31. That's only 160, and they'll have a harder time still getting the regionalists on their side. With PNV and NA+(A centre-right Navarrese regionalist party), they'll only get to 168 if the averages hold up. Finally, we have to consider the possibility that no government will form and we'll have this all over again later this year. But with so many still undecided and turnout expected to continue its downward trend, I can't make a good projection for anything.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I highly doubt, after the Rajoy fiasco, that PP will bag this election. I think PSOE will win this time. The other parties, although giving the fight, simply lack mainstay power. At least for the time being. Seeing as some of them are beginning to rise and edge themselves into the electorate’s consciousness, perhaps the story will be different at a latter date. That’s my take. We could yet be surprised.

[Rio Cana]

PSOE and PP = Corruption. These parties need to be broken up.

Has for the parties left, most seem not too keen on allowing the Catalans to voice there concerns when it comes to Independence. Not a very democratic way of thinking. Others want to get rid of the autonomous communities. Relying on the central government instead of local government to solve local problems is not a very efficient way of solving problems. Usually, the farther a region is from the Capital the less interest there will be.

Spain should become a Federal Republic with States. USS (United States of Spain)/EE.UE. (Estados Unidos de España).

[MERIZoC]

Turnout is very high, good for ERC and other nationalist parties, probably good for Vox, bad for PP and C's. Could be good for the left too, if high turnout is motivated by anti-Vox sentiment, which is what Sanchez was trying for in the debates. A few hours till results.

[Dresderstan]

Well, looks like PSOE and Cs did better than expected while PP and Vox did worse/underperformed.

PSOE: 123 (+38)
PP: 66 (-69)
Cs: 57 (+25)
Unidas Podemos: 42 (-24)
Vox 24 (+24)

[Shrillland]

Well, looks like PSOE and Cs did better than expected while PP and Vox did worse/underperformed.

PSOE: 123 (+38)
PP: 66 (-69)
Cs: 57 (+25)
Unidas Podemos: 42 (-24)
Vox 24 (+24)

They'll need ERC to get over the top unless Ciudadanos somehow climbs down...which they might if only to keep separatists out. I was surprised by the results myself when I found out just a little bit ago...sorry I wasn't here earlier, I had a lot going on in the personal sphere.

[Dresderstan]

Well, looks like PSOE and Cs did better than expected while PP and Vox did worse/underperformed.

PSOE: 123 (+38)
PP: 66 (-69)
Cs: 57 (+25)
Unidas Podemos: 42 (-24)
Vox 24 (+24)

They'll need ERC to get over the top unless Ciudadanos somehow climbs down...which they might if only to keep separatists out. I was surprised by the results myself when I found out just a little bit ago...sorry I wasn't here earlier, I had a lot going on in the personal sphere.

No problem, I almost forgot about the results and frankly I see this being a minority PSOE government, maybe.

[Major-Tom]

PSOE government w/ support from Podemos and various left wing regionalist/nationalist parties seems all but certain, and I'm fairly happy with that result.

Definitely smirking at the PP's massive losses, on account of the PP functions more like a cartel or mafia than a legitimate political party. As for Vox, their under performance is also personally enjoyable to see.

[Czechoslovakia and Zakarpattia]

PSOE government w/ support from Podemos and various left wing regionalist/nationalist parties seems all but certain, and I'm fairly happy with that result.

Definitely smirking at the PP's massive losses, on account of the PP functions more like a cartel or mafia than a legitimate political party. As for Vox, their under performance is also personally enjoyable to see.

The Falangists in Spain always have the biggest Vox of them all, but when push comes to shove, they sputter out and fail to deliver on their most extravagant promises of a "Crusade to purge these cultural marxist Moors from our holy Patria".

[Kowani]

Well, looks like PSOE and Cs did better than expected while PP and Vox did worse/underperformed.

PSOE: 123 (+38)
PP: 66 (-69)
Cs: 57 (+25)
Unidas Podemos: 42 (-24)
Vox 24 (+24)

¡Qué se jodan los del Vox!
Thank God my country has not entirely succumbed to lunacy.

[Dresderstan]

PSOE-Unidas-ERC Coalition is palpable, since they'd have 180 seats, but the issue of Catalan Independence will be on the table.

[Shrillland]

Here's the full numbers for the Congress including the small parties:

PSOE: 123
PP: 66
Cs: 57
Unidos Podemos: 42:
Vox: 24
ERC: 15
Junts per Catalunya(Puidgemont's party): 7
PNV(right Basque nationalist): 6
eh Bildu(left Basque nationalist): 4
NA+(Navarrese regionalists): 2
CC(Canarian Coalition[for Canary Islanders interests]): 2
PRC(Cantabrian regionalists): 1
Compromise Coalition(Valencian interests): 1

The Senate numbers aren't complete yet, I don't think, but PSOE will have a clear majority there(there's two or three seats not determined yet).

Without the ERC, it's a steep climb to a majority for Sanchez. I think Dresderstan may be right, if Sanchez doesn't want to be seen as supporting traitors in Barcelona, he may have to settle with a minority government with a C&S agreement with Podemos.

[Dresderstan]

I mean it feels like a lose-lose either way for Sanchez. Either he goes with a left wing coalition with ERC and anger the Spanish nationalists who want to keep Spain together, or he doesn't ally with ERC and anger the Catalan nationalists who want independence. Either way, the issue could tear the country apart.

[Liriena]

PSOE government w/ support from Podemos and various left wing regionalist/nationalist parties seems all but certain, and I'm fairly happy with that result.

Definitely smirking at the PP's massive losses, on account of the PP functions more like a cartel or mafia than a legitimate political party. As for Vox, their under performance is also personally enjoyable to see.

Pretty much my exact feelings. Nice to see PP btfo and Vox continuing the recent trend of the European far right underperforming.

[Outer Sparta]

The pro-Catalan party leans left but would the PSOE really use them to form a majority coalition?

[Major-Tom]

The pro-Catalan party leans left but would the PSOE really use them to form a majority coalition?

More likely the PSOE and Podemos form a minority government perhaps with some of the "softer" and more constitutionalist regional parties, all the while the ERC occasionally lends support on votes where their goals are similar enough to PSOE's.

[San Lumen]

Wonderful to see Spain reject the far right and the left get a major victory. Its quite possible the far right's rise finally waning.

[Shrillland]

Wonderful to see Spain reject the far right and the left get a major victory. Its quite possible the far right's rise finally waning.

erm...not exactly a victory. They got the lead, but there's no way for them to form a proper coalition without ERC at this point, which is problematic at best.

[San Lumen]

Wonderful to see Spain reject the far right and the left get a major victory. Its quite possible the far right's rise finally waning.

erm...not exactly a victory. They got the lead, but there's no way for them to form a proper coalition without ERC at this point, which is problematic at best.

What's the ERC?

[Major-Tom]

erm...not exactly a victory. They got the lead, but there's no way for them to form a proper coalition without ERC at this point, which is problematic at best.

What's the ERC?

Catalan nationalist party that overall leans left, but wishes for Catalonia to be independent from Spain. This, obviously, would pose some issues were they in a federalist government.

[Czechoslovakia and Zakarpattia]

erm...not exactly a victory. They got the lead, but there's no way for them to form a proper coalition without ERC at this point, which is problematic at best.

What's the ERC?

Leftwing populist and moderate Catalan autonomists, and after what happened with Carles Puigdemont and the whole Catalonia debacle 2 years ago, one must be careful not to accidentally kick a hornet's nest, since Spain is still mostly falangist in attitude when it comes to national unity.