2021 Israeli Elections IV: Now Without Netanyahu

[Angleter]

I've updated the poll.

The results of the previous poll, roughly translated into seats, would've been:

Meretz :: 29
Likud :: 22
Labor :: 20
Kachol Lavan (Blue and White) :: 18 (Yesh Atid 11, Hosen Yisrael 7)
The Joint List :: 14 (Hadash-Ta'al plus Ra'am-Balad)
New Right :: 4
Kulanu :: 4
Others :: 9 (including Bayit Yehudi and Otzma [both now in United Right-Wing Parties], Yisrael Beiteinu, Gesher, Telem [now in Kachol Lavan], Hatnua [not running], and Zehut)

United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Yachad would not have won any seats.

In this scenario a centre-left coalition of Meretz, Labor, and the constituent parties of Kachol Lavan would've won a clear majority.

[Menassa]

This thread has better election coverage than Arutz Sheva.

Change my Mind.

[Eglaecia]

Gesher look very nice. Shame they're polling so low...

[Great Israel]

Zehut, no question

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges.

[Thermodolia]

Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges.

Not just corruption. He will also be charged with; bribery, fraud, and breach of trust

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/02/28/mi ... 6PC%3DAPPL

[Stojam]

Possibly will vote Gantz/Hosen Yisrael. As much as I hate Lapid and his failure as the Minister of Treasury I will have to vote Gantz. He is a sensible man who will oppose the corrupt Haredi-Bibi axis, I don't want their ultra-religious agendas on the rest of Israel and Bibi's corruption game. Gantz is the most sensible option for Israel in my opinion. A former IDF general with an extensive military career seems like a very good option to me.

[Stojam]

I've updated the poll.

The results of the previous poll, roughly translated into seats, would've been:

Meretz :: 29
Likud :: 22
Labor :: 20
Kachol Lavan (Blue and White) :: 18 (Yesh Atid 11, Hosen Yisrael 7)
The Joint List :: 14 (Hadash-Ta'al plus Ra'am-Balad)
New Right :: 4
Kulanu :: 4
Others :: 9 (including Bayit Yehudi and Otzma [both now in United Right-Wing Parties], Yisrael Beiteinu, Gesher, Telem [now in Kachol Lavan], Hatnua [not running], and Zehut)

United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Yachad would not have won any seats.

In this scenario a centre-left coalition of Meretz, Labor, and the constituent parties of Kachol Lavan would've won a clear majority.

If real life was like that then Israel would've been very different and more shitty with Meretz in power.

[Nothreen]

For now, it only hearing process before indictment. It going to take a year until we have final decision.
In addition, there is no stage in the criminal process that force him to resign, and he plan to build political coalition that will protect him even more.

[Zurkerx]

Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges.

Not just corruption. He will also be charged with; bribery, fraud, and breach of trust

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/02/28/mi ... 6PC%3DAPPL

So basically, he's probably not going to be PM by the end of this.

[North German Realm]

Not just corruption. He will also be charged with; bribery, fraud, and breach of trust

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/02/28/mi ... 6PC%3DAPPL

So basically, he's probably not going to be PM by the end of this.

Probably. Unless he makes himself insanely popular before the hearing is over.

[Major-Tom]

Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges.

Seriously, Netanyahu is a known sad son of a bitch, this is music to my ears. Hoping the Blue and White alliance can perform well.

[Shrillland]

Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges.

Seriously, Netanyahu is a known sad son of a bitch, this is music to my ears. Hoping the Blue and White alliance can perform well.

Well, if the polls are anything to go by, they're performing quite well indeed with a 36-seat average, which would mean Likud would finally be unseated.

[Sonam]

can we please get likud out or fragment it uh... harder? p sure their time is running out anyways

also lmao at the "WHO KNOWS LOL" spoilered parties

[Angleter]

Here's interesting. If this is the case, then presumably Lapid, who wants to be Prime Minister (in two years' time) would be a key witness for the prosecution against Netanyahu.

All indications so far have been that Netanyahu would lose ground, and his coalition potentially lose its majority, if he's indicted. It'll be interesting to see if that actually translates to reality now the indictment has happened.

---

What could also end up deciding this election is, er, the election threshold. In Israel, parties have to get 3.25% of the vote to get seats in the Knesset. There are a huge number of parties polling near or just under the threshold at the moment - Ra'am-Balad, Meretz, Kulanu, Gesher, Yisrael Beiteinu (who, ironically, were the main driving force behind increasing the threshold from 2% a few years ago), Shas, and the United Right-Wing Parties. It's entirely possible that, especially on the right, a huge number of votes could be wasted as parties finish just below the threshold. If we count Kulanu and Gesher as centre-right parties, then the five centre-right and right-wing parties listed above could get as much as 15% of the vote between them, and zero Knesset seats to show for it, for example.

It's entirely possible, in essence, that one bloc could receive a majority of votes, but not enough seats to form a government. That, in turn, might revive the debate about electoral reform in Israel.

This, by the way, is also why Netanyahu was so eager to get Bayit Yehudi to team up with Otzma, regardless of how odious they are.

---

On a related note, I've found another treasure trove of old Israeli campaign songs. Here's the Baruch Marzel theme tune from 2006, which is quite a bouncy tune for a far-right Otzma politician (back then he led something called the 'Jewish National Front') who holds annual parties celebrating the Cave of the Patriarchs terrorist. Fortunately, Marzel is not in a realistic place on the United Right-Wing Parties list.

Also this, from 2003, is an extraordinarily hubristic theme tune and video for Amram Mitzna, who was then Labor leader. It seems like a valiant attempt to make a personality cult of someone who doesn't exactly come across as blessed with charisma, and if so, it didn't work, because Mitzna led Labor to their (then) worst-ever election defeat.

Mafdal, a forerunner of Bayit Yehudi, also liked to campaign through the medium of music videos. In 2015, Naftali Bennett forced his candidates to dance and be green-screened into some of these old videos, in order to prove that he didn't think the party's traditions were holding him back. The problem was he did think that, which is why he left three years later.

[Angleter]

One 2019 Israeli election not enough for you? There might end up being two!

[Angleter]

A guide to the elections from the Jerusalem Post.

Raises the possibility of a national unity government led by Blue and White with a post-Netanyahu Likud, which would be interesting. Likud are saying no (and denying that they'll be 'post-Netanyahu' any time soon), and it'd be surprising if they were willing to become the smaller partner in a coalition.

[Len Hyet]

A guide to the elections from the Jerusalem Post.

Raises the possibility of a national unity government led by Blue and White with a post-Netanyahu Likud, which would be interesting. Likud are saying no (and denying that they'll be 'post-Netanyahu' any time soon), and it'd be surprising if they were willing to become the smaller partner in a coalition.

A little war gaming on my part, using middle of the road estimated seats gives the following probable coalitions.

Blue and White 36, Labor 8, Meretz 5. Total seats 49, not enough to form a government.

Likud 30, UTJ 7, URP 7, New Right 6, Shas 5, Yisrael Beytenu 2, Gesher 2. Total seats 59, just shy of enough to form a government, but if it picks up 1 or 2 more seats (entirely possible according to the polls), Netanyahu remains PM.

There's a couple of parties that can tip the balance, but these are all ones who have expressed a preference, Gantz/Blue and White or Netanyahu/Likud.

[The Feylands]

New Right. Naftali Bennett is one awesome dude. And Ayelet Shaked is one terrific woman.

That being said, I’m no Kahanist but rabbi Kahane was probably quite right about the need for a population exchange.

[Angleter]

A guide to the elections from the Jerusalem Post.

Raises the possibility of a national unity government led by Blue and White with a post-Netanyahu Likud, which would be interesting. Likud are saying no (and denying that they'll be 'post-Netanyahu' any time soon), and it'd be surprising if they were willing to become the smaller partner in a coalition.

A little war gaming on my part, using middle of the road estimated seats gives the following probable coalitions.

Blue and White 36, Labor 8, Meretz 5. Total seats 49, not enough to form a government.

Likud 30, UTJ 7, URP 7, New Right 6, Shas 5, Yisrael Beytenu 2, Gesher 2. Total seats 59, just shy of enough to form a government, but if it picks up 1 or 2 more seats (entirely possible according to the polls), Netanyahu remains PM.

There's a couple of parties that can tip the balance, but these are all ones who have expressed a preference, Gantz/Blue and White or Netanyahu/Likud.

I suppose the issue is that Beiteinu and Gesher will get either 4 or 0 depending on which side of the threshold they finish. If they both miss out, then it becomes easier for Blue and White to form a government, especially if they can get Kulanu on side (assuming they cross the threshold), and can get outside support from Hadash-Ta'al.

[Angleter]

In a bizarre twist, Netanyahu has now got in an argument with Wonder Woman.

Gal Gadot has intervened in support of another Israeli actress, Rotem Sela, who's accused Likud of anti-Arab rhetoric.

One of Netanyahu's main campaign points at the moment is that Gantz and Lapid would only be able to form a government with (outside) support from Hadash-Ta'al, a non-Zionist alliance of communists and Arab nationalists. Likud have endlessly repeated the slogan "it's Bibi or Tibi," referring to Ahmad Tibi, an outspoken member of Hadash-Ta'al who used to work for Yasser Arafat. Rotem Sela took exception to this on Instagram, asking "when will anyone in this government tell the public that this is a country of all its citizens, and all people are born equal?"

For reasons best known to himself, Netanyahu decided to argue back, saying that "Israel is not a country of all its citizens... Israel is the nation-state of the Jewish nation – and its alone," before adding that "there is no problem with Arab citizens" and arguing that his previous government had increased investment in the Arab sector.

It's worth noting that "a state of all its citizens" is a common euphemism in Israel/Palestine discourse for a non-Zionist, 'post-national' state of Israel with no Jewish character. But obviously, the statement sounds terrible, especially outside Israel. Rotem Sela has responded in turn saying that she won't be silenced by abuse from over-enthusiastic Likud supporters, and now Wonder Woman herself has defended Sela against Netanyahu. So that's fun.

[Len Hyet]

A little war gaming on my part, using middle of the road estimated seats gives the following probable coalitions.

Blue and White 36, Labor 8, Meretz 5. Total seats 49, not enough to form a government.

Likud 30, UTJ 7, URP 7, New Right 6, Shas 5, Yisrael Beytenu 2, Gesher 2. Total seats 59, just shy of enough to form a government, but if it picks up 1 or 2 more seats (entirely possible according to the polls), Netanyahu remains PM.

There's a couple of parties that can tip the balance, but these are all ones who have expressed a preference, Gantz/Blue and White or Netanyahu/Likud.

I suppose the issue is that Beiteinu and Gesher will get either 4 or 0 depending on which side of the threshold they finish. If they both miss out, then it becomes easier for Blue and White to form a government, especially if they can get Kulanu on side (assuming they cross the threshold), and can get outside support from Hadash-Ta'al.

I'd like it if B&W could form a coalition, but I don't think the math works out.

[Aclion]

Kachol Lavan seems like the closest there is to a decent option.

In a bizarre twist, Netanyahu has now got in an argument with Wonder Woman.

Gal Gadot has intervened in support of another Israeli actress, Rotem Sela, who's accused Likud of anti-Arab rhetoric.

I feel like accusing Likud of antiarab rhetoric is a bit like saying detroit has a problem with vandalism.

[Neu Leonstein]

Not to engage in conspiracy theories or anything, but aren't we just going to see a conveniently-timed flare-up of tensions in Gaza or whatever to bolster support for Bibi & co? Or is the voting populace immune to stunts like that by now?

[Angleter]

Not to engage in conspiracy theories or anything, but aren't we just going to see a conveniently-timed flare-up of tensions in Gaza or whatever to bolster support for Bibi & co? Or is the voting populace immune to stunts like that by now?

The election was largely caused by a flare-up of tensions in Gaza in November. Yisrael Beiteinu left the coalition because they didn't agree with a ceasefire with Hamas, leaving the government with 61 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. It fell apart weeks later.

It'd be highly unlikely for another flare-up to happen in the next four weeks.

Also, a lot of Netanyahu's appeal comes from security – there have only been two notable conflicts in the last ten years (Gaza 2012, Gaza 2014), which is pretty good going by Israeli standards. Engineering a war in the middle of an election campaign would probably lose him votes rather than anything else.