La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

What are the odds this becomes a full-blown civil war?

We have to wait and see, perhaps tomorrow on May Day when many persons pro and con take to the streets, good question.

[Aclion]

Is that why Guaido called for the military to join him and violently overthrow Maduro in what he called "Operación Libertad"?

Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?

Side-note: calling your South American coup attempt "operación" is a real 10/10 in "not even trying to be subtle about it".

...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?

This. A coup would be when elements within the government unconstitutionally overthrow the legal government, but Maduro's presidency hasn't had a constitutional foundation since his term expired last year. Since then he's started acting as a rouge president and under the constitution the president of the National Assembly(Guaidó) becomes the acting president.

[Senkaku]

And, you know, also the thousands of people in the streets...?

So it's a civic-military coup attempt?

It's an uprising against a brutal dictatorship.

No, you're right, it's not guaranteed to be a good outcome- but it seems to me that it's a lot more likely that Guaido taking power will lead to a good outcome than Maduro staying.

We can agree to disagree on that. Or rather, I can agree that Venezuela might be better off in a post-Maduro situation... but not, in my opinion, the particular post-Maduro situation that would come from a successful coup.

Well, at this point, there's not really a lot of other options for bringing about a post-Maduro situation besides some kind of uprising- hopefully one with as little bloodshed as possible (though Maduro seems determined to take people down with him).

I mean, it seems to me that Maduro has kinda backed them into a corner by being so violently desperate to stay in power, and crashing the economy in the process.

This is kinda getting chicken-or-egg.

Is it? The man ran the economy into the ground, started cracking down to keep his hold on power, and now we're here. This is not somehow the opposition's fault, except maybe for being ineffective at getting rid of him earlier.

Well, it sure as fuck doesn't seem like Chavez's ideas are doing a whole fucking lot, so I'd be willing to bet that proven economic ideas are more likely to help move the country towards recovery.

Neoliberal economics are not "proven" economic ideas. Not as far as South America is concerned, at least. The inevitable austerity of neoliberal economics might well finish the job that the crisis under Chavismo started and starve many more Venezuelans.

I'd hope that the United States and other wealthy democracies would give the Guaido government aid after it comes to power- but whatever happens, I expect the crisis is going to get worse before it gets better. Yes, more people are going to starve- it'd be nice to end the famine sooner rather than later, though.

You won't find me disagreeing that the US has an optics problem here, but I'm not convinced that it goes deeper than an optics problem.

It definitely goes deeper than an optics problem when the people with the power to decide on the foreign policy towards Venezuela are quite clear about what they want.

Having a clear position is fine- it's what they've been involved in previously that's the issue, in my view. But I don't think anyone should prevaricate about wanting Maduro gone.

...are you fucking kidding me?

One is a dictator who's rigged elections, crashed the economy, illegally destroyed or subverted every political institution in the country to consolidate his own power, murdered and suppressed his own people, persecuted journalists and political opponents, enriched his cronies to the detriment of the people and overseen massive criminal activities, and completely abased himself to foreign powers like Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China. The other is an opposition leader with strong popular support who's been trying to peacefully remove him through a constitutional process and encouraging other countries to stand up for the human rights of the Venezuelan people and against the dictator who's oppressing them.

And you can't tell the fucking difference? Give me a fucking break.

Not saying you're wrong (in fact, I know for a fact that a lot of those claims are correct), but that seems like a rather gish-gallopy and one-sided info-dump.

Oh, I'm sorry, should I have tried to be nicer to Maduro, the man who's ordering National Guard armored cars to go full Tiananmen on protesters as we speak?

Not everything is indistinguishable shades of gray, Liri. Bitching about entirely accurate criticisms of the Maduro regime being "one-sided" is a hair's breadth away from denying their validity altogether, and has an unpleasant whiff of apologism. The man needs to go and Guaido, even if you don't think he's leftist enough on economic issues, is the man to do it. Venezuela's future as a democratic society is on the line.

[Senkaku]

Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?

To join in a military operation to overthrow Maduro. Very responsible of him, using civilians as cannon fodder (same goes for the Chavistas, btw).

...I'm sorry, you're blaming Guaido for the fact that Maduro is turning his guns on civilians protesting his illegitimate misrule, as they are entitled to, because he's encouraged them to make their voices heard and stand up for their country's democracy? This is some fucking galaxy brain shit.

...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?

Only insofar as any violent overthrow of a third world government that gets marketed with "operation" in its name kind of gives me a "imperialist" vibe, even if it's not the exact same thing.

It's just an optics thing.

A lot of this is just an optics thing. I get that, but it's not a good reason to unironically compare it to previous American imperialist overreaches- it is not the same on any level and the Maduro regime is really not one that anyone should be apologizing for.

If the US were supporting Maduro instead of Guaido, and the Russians or Chinese backing Guaido, what would you be saying? You'd be saying the US is supporting a brutal and fantastically corrupt dictatorship, and cheering on the opposition.

I'd feel the same way I feel right now: both sides of this conflict (insofar as their leaders go) are horrible and the Venezuelan people deserve better than either Maduro or Guaido.

Take your both sides bullshit and put it in the fucking garbage. You sound like Trump after Charlottesville.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

Still doesn't look like Guaido has enough support in the military to win.

I'm afraid you're right, but I hope he succeeds some how.

[Sada Difrium]

Still doesn't look like Guaido has enough support in the military to win.

I'm afraid you're right, but I hope he succeeds some how.

I know the worry here is that the revolt fails, but I'm more worried about a Syria or Libya type situation where the conflict drags on and destroys the country. Don't get me wrong, I would definitely prefer something like Tunisia, but many revolutions end up going full circle, and a drawn out conflict increases the chance of that.

[Chestaan]

Maduro is far from perfect, but I think we've seen more than enough US backed coups to realise that such a route is never good.

[West Leas Oros 2]

I'm honestly surprised the crisis is still continuing.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

Maduro is far from perfect, but I think we've seen more than enough US backed coups to realise that such a route is never good.

Sounds like an excuse to do nothing and support Maduro, which is your democratic right to do so and post it.

[Liriena]

I'm honestly surprised the crisis is still continuing.

I think Chavismo having such loyal support from the military is the main reason why Maduro is still in power. I can't imagine he would have managed to stay this long otherwise.

[Senkaku]

I'm honestly surprised the crisis is still continuing.

I think Chavismo having such loyal support from the military is the main reason why Maduro is still in power. I can't imagine he would have managed to stay this long otherwise.

Also the fact that he's helping the people backing him make a fuckload of money

and foreign support, use of colectivos in addition to the military, etc

[Pim Fortuyn]

Maduro is far from perfect, but I think we've seen more than enough US backed coups to realise that such a route is never good.

Objectively incorrect.

[Baltenstein]

I'm afraid you're right, but I hope he succeeds some how.

I know the worry here is that the revolt fails, but I'm more worried about a Syria or Libya type situation where the conflict drags on and destroys the country. Don't get me wrong, I would definitely prefer something like Tunisia, but many revolutions end up going full circle, and a drawn out conflict increases the chance of that.

I think the difference to Syria or Libya is that in both cases you have a basically artificial state uniting various tribes/ethnicities with little to no sense of common identity, plus a shitload of religious fanatics from abroad. Venezuela, to my knowlede at least, is a society with a common national identity, and of course there wouldn't be any religious terrorists duking it out over who gets to carve out his own little theocracy either.
What could very much become a problem in case of a government collapse-related power vacuum would be various crime and drug cartels taking over.

[Novus America]

I'm honestly surprised the crisis is still continuing.

I think Chavismo having such loyal support from the military is the main reason why Maduro is still in power. I can't imagine he would have managed to stay this long otherwise.

More bribery and desperation than true loyalty TBH.
The loyalty is to that sweet drug money.
They know Guiado will not let them drug deal and rape and pillage with quite as much impunity.
Plus Russians and Cubans.

[Inkopolitia]

A coup against an illegitimate government is not a coup, it's just an uprising against a brutal dictatorship which does not give two shits about the people. The socialists who say these lies need to stop.

[Proctopeo]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

Better a social democrat with American backing than a socialist dictator with Chinese backing.

You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.
Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.

Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat. But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?

A coup against an illegitimate government is not a coup, it's just an uprising against a brutal dictatorship which does not give two shits about the people. The socialists who say these lies need to stop.

^
The seizure of power cannot be illegal whatsoever in this case, as Maduro is not remotely a legitimate leader, by any rational standards.

[Liriena]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

Better a social democrat with American backing than a socialist dictator with Chinese backing.

Barely better in the current conditions. With caveats and concerns aplenty.

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.

Shit isn't going to get any better if his supporters start an armed insurrection and the whole bloody mess escalates even further (as if it needed more escalation). And it's not gonna get any better if you vindicate Maduro's paranoia and give him more and more excuses to violently crush dissent.

Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/ ... 21696.html

Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.

Actually, what I think makes him "not really a social democrat" is that he seems to think that the solution to all of Venezuela's woes is subtly privatizing the country's biggest public asset to foreign interests.

But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?

That I don't personally trust Guaido and his backers doesn't mean I support Maduro or approve of running people over with armored vehicles. It's not a zero-sum game.

[Senkaku]

Better a social democrat with American backing than a socialist dictator with Chinese backing.

Barely better in the current conditions. With caveats and concerns aplenty.

If Guaido wins, Venezuela might still be in deep shit- or things might improve. If Maduro stays, the situation shows every sign of continuing to deteriorate further.

one of the most recent updates indicates the colectivos are using some of the weapons they got from Maduro, for example

Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.

Shit isn't going to get any better if his supporters start an armed insurrection and the whole bloody mess escalates even further (as if it needed more escalation).

Liri, what are your ideas for getting rid of Maduro, if you agree it needs to be done? What's your better third option?

You're like the people who wanted Jill Stein, since Hillary and Trump were "the same." It's ridiculous.

And it's not gonna get any better if you vindicate Maduro's paranoia and give him more and more excuses to violently crush dissent.

This is like telling a battered woman to just stop pissing her husband off and hope he calms down.

Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/ ... 21696.html

Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.

Actually, what I think makes him "not really a social democrat" is that he seems to think that the solution to all of Venezuela's woes is subtly privatizing the country's biggest public asset to foreign interests.

I'd argue that's better than Maduro's current astonishing level of corruption and mismanagement.

But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?

That I don't personally trust Guaido and his backers doesn't mean I support Maduro or approve of running people over with armored vehicles. It's not a zero-sum game.

It literally is a zero-sum game. One goes or the other. If you're refusing to pick a side, you're siding with the status quo- aka a brutal and corrupt dictatorship that's destroying the country. Stop playing footsie with an autocrat just because you like the color of his shirt.

[Proctopeo]

Better a social democrat with American backing than a socialist dictator with Chinese backing.

Barely better in the current conditions. With caveats and concerns aplenty.

No, massively better. He gives a solid chance of things actually getting better. Is there a chance things don't? Yes, but the chance of things not getting better is 100% with Maduro. The chance must be taken.

Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.

Shit isn't going to get any better if his supporters start an armed insurrection and the whole bloody mess escalates even further (as if it needed more escalation). And it's not gonna get any better if you vindicate Maduro's paranoia and give him more and more excuses to violently crush dissent.

Well, Maduro is obviously not going anywhere unless he's forced out of power. It's like removing an infection: it's gone on too long, and we need to amputate the limb to save the body.

Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/ ... 21696.html

That's an offer, doesn't seem to have gone anywhere as of yet.

Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.

Actually, what I think makes him "not really a social democrat" is that he seems to think that the solution to all of Venezuela's woes is subtly privatizing the country's biggest public asset to foreign interests.

Oil money might help at the very least curb the hyperinflation plaguing the economy, which, outside of Maduro and his government, is the biggest problem facing Venezuela currently. While not quite the levels of Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, or postwar Hungary, it's still exceptionally bad; even after dropping some, it's at an annual rate of 1.6 million percent. For comparison, the next-highest country currently is South Sudan, who hasn't even broken 200% yet. Note that South Sudan has been in a civil war since 2013. Just to give you a sense of scale and precisely how bad the inflation is, as you seem to be ignorant of such.

But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?

That I don't personally trust Guaido and his backers doesn't mean I support Maduro or approve of running people over with armored vehicles. It's not a zero-sum game.

Given that all you've provided against Maduro is token statements such as that one, color me highly skeptical.
And, as Senkaku said, it is indeed zero-sum. Your options are status quo or change; constantly attacking the change means you're obviously in favor of the status quo.

[Costa Fierro]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

But at least they'll be free of "Bolivarian socialism".

[Ifreann]

[Senkaku]

Looks like some sort of firefight went down between pro-Guaido police and colectivos at the Transport Ministry? Am I way behind the curve/are there some Twitter or live feeds w better info?

[Likar]

Tensions escalated in Venezuela Tuesday after the country's U.S.-backed opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called for the military to topple the leftist government of Nicolás Maduro.

Early in the morning, Guaidó -- standing alongside a group of soldiers and previously jailed fellow opposition leader Leopoldo López -- called on the Venezuelan armed forces to stage an uprising and carry out what he dubbed "Operación Libertad," or operation freedom.

Top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to vouch their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro.

It seems the end is here. Venezuela is now in a civil war. Kind of.

The US should not intervene in Venezuela. It would cause an Afgahnistan 2.0. Hands off Venezuela!

[Senkaku]

(Image)

it literally isn’t lol but go off

[Loben The 2nd]

Tensions escalated in Venezuela Tuesday after the country's U.S.-backed opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called for the military to topple the leftist government of Nicolás Maduro.

Early in the morning, Guaidó -- standing alongside a group of soldiers and previously jailed fellow opposition leader Leopoldo López -- called on the Venezuelan armed forces to stage an uprising and carry out what he dubbed "Operación Libertad," or operation freedom.

Top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to vouch their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro.

It seems the end is here. Venezuela is now in a civil war. Kind of.

The US should not intervene in Venezuela. It would cause an Afgahnistan 2.0. Hands off Venezuela!

“US should not intervene in Venezuela”
*thousands die*

“Wtf us why you don’t do something”