US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

[Telconi]

Indeed they are. I'm married to one.

I resemble that.

Please get a room prior to resembling any of Nana''s descriptions of you.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Indeed they are. I'm married to one.

I resemble that.

You're not being contrarian. Something is fishy. You're an illegal bug. I know it.

Honestly, that's the only time I've had issues. For the most part, I don't think many people around here think I'm a foreign critter. At least, not that I can perceive.

[Thermodolia]

Well, I've made the list of all the districts considered to possibly be in contention Tomorrow, though some of them I don't see why they're on they're...those are the districts I'll be calling as well as the Senate and Governor's races and the ballot initiatives for as long as I can endure it.

It's everybody else's format but ours, not just Spanish. Americans are a highly contrarian lot.

Indeed they are. I'm married to one.

Gallo doesn’t count

[Oil exporting People]

Locking in my predictions for this cycle.

House: 215 Dem, 219 GOP
Senate: GOP retains their seats in Texas, Tennessee and Arizona but Heller loses his bid in Nevada. Pickups occur in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Montana but fail to achieve success in Florida. Net change of +3 to the GOP, for a new 54-46 Senate.

[Shrillland]

Here's mine.
House: Dem 224, GOP 211
Senate: Dems retain West Virginia, Florida, and Indiana, and they also gain Arizona and Nevada, but the loss of North Dakota and Missouri keeps the Senate out of reach. It'll be 51-49, no change.

[Hakons]

My predictions always get influenced by wishful thinking, so I'll leave it at "we'll see tomorrow"

[Washington Resistance Army]

I still don't know how to call Indiana and I hate it ;_;

[Salandriagado]

I would have no issue with that either. Every state ought to pass automatic voter registration.

What if someone doesn't want to register?

Feel free to de-register yourself whenever you like.

[Salandriagado]

No it’s called the American Independent Party or the Independent Party of America. Just saying I’m independent is not apart of a political party

It is if you tick off "independent" on the registration form.

That's just not true.

[Ngelmish]

I still don't know how to call Indiana and I hate it ;_;

The Democrats hold it.

[Washington Resistance Army]

I still don't know how to call Indiana and I hate it ;_;

The Democrats hold it.

I really could see it going either way tbh

[Interos]

Personally, I think the GOP will gain in the Senate, but lose the House. However, it’ll probably benefit the Republicans anyway if Pelosi ends up speaker.

[Valrifell]

Locking in my predictions for this cycle.

House: 215 Dem, 219 GOP
Senate: GOP retains their seats in Texas, Tennessee and Arizona but Heller loses his bid in Nevada. Pickups occur in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Montana but fail to achieve success in Florida. Net change of +3 to the GOP, for a new 54-46 Senate.

While we're fantasizing:

House: D247 R188
Senate 51-49 D - systematic polling error due to unnecessary modifications to methodology in lieu of 2016 and lowballing turnout for traditionally apathetic groups hands Dems several surprise wins and a massive lead in the national ballot - enough to, in a shocking development that leaves pundits baffled - unseat Cruz.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Locking in my predictions for this cycle.

House: 215 Dem, 219 GOP
Senate: GOP retains their seats in Texas, Tennessee and Arizona but Heller loses his bid in Nevada. Pickups occur in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Montana but fail to achieve success in Florida. Net change of +3 to the GOP, for a new 54-46 Senate.

While we're fantasizing:

House: D247 R188
Senate 51-49 D - systematic polling error due to unnecessary modifications to methodology in lieu of 2016 and lowballing turnout for traditionally apathetic groups hands Dems several surprise wins and a massive lead in the national ballot - enough to, in a shocking development that leaves pundits baffled - unseat Cruz.

You jest but if Beto hadn't run so far to the left I'd say he would have had a real shot at giving Cruz the boot.

[Cannot think of a name]

The tracker at 538 went to 1 in 5 for the Democrats for the Senate, which would be exciting if it wasn't way too late.

[Valrifell]

While we're fantasizing:

House: D247 R188
Senate 51-49 D - systematic polling error due to unnecessary modifications to methodology in lieu of 2016 and lowballing turnout for traditionally apathetic groups hands Dems several surprise wins and a massive lead in the national ballot - enough to, in a shocking development that leaves pundits baffled - unseat Cruz.

You jest but if Beto hadn't run so far to the left I'd say he would have had a real shot at giving Cruz the boot.

But then he'd be lacking in name recognition. Him running as a progressive is what drew media personalities to him and made him a household name in the country and in Texas. He could've tried to persuade the center but I think Cruz would've still held.

He most likely came to the conclusion he needed more name recognition after the primary. Which he almost lost to a faceless "berniecrat" with a Hispanic last name. According to a politico article I was reading earlier, it was around this time he started campaigning for more radically leftward ideas and got a buzz around him.

[Valrifell]

The tracker at 538 went to 1 in 5 for the Democrats for the Senate, which would be exciting if it wasn't way too late.

It's actually probably more exciting if you think about it. Polls are tightening in the home stretch which opens the door for some radical outcomes.

[Washington Resistance Army]

You jest but if Beto hadn't run so far to the left I'd say he would have had a real shot at giving Cruz the boot.

But then he'd be lacking in name recognition. Him running as a progressive is what drew media personalities to him and made him a household name in the country and in Texas. He could've tried to persuade the center but I think Cruz would've still held.

He most likely came to the conclusion he needed more name recognition after the primary. Which he almost lost to a faceless "berniecrat" with a Hispanic last name. According to a politico article I was reading earlier, it was around this time he started campaigning for more radically leftward ideas and got a buzz around him.

Sure it got him name recognition but a lot of the stuff he's running on is just not gonna work in Texas and I'm shocked he actually went through with it. You could replace him with any Democrat from California and there'd hardly be any difference lol, and I know it's all anecdotal but every Texan I know looks at him that way and refuses to support him as a result.

[Tobleste]

You jest but if Beto hadn't run so far to the left I'd say he would have had a real shot at giving Cruz the boot.

But then he'd be lacking in name recognition. Him running as a progressive is what drew media personalities to him and made him a household name in the country and in Texas. He could've tried to persuade the center but I think Cruz would've still held.

He most likely came to the conclusion he needed more name recognition after the primary. Which he almost lost to a faceless "berniecrat" with a Hispanic last name. According to a politico article I was reading earlier, it was around this time he started campaigning for more radically leftward ideas and got a buzz around him.

I'm starting to doubt the idea that moving towards the centre automatically means greater electability. If that was true, the more moderate party would always win.

I think a large portion of voters don't care about left or right and vote based on what's "different" and many others don't vote unless the candidates are left or right wing enough.

[Valrifell]

But then he'd be lacking in name recognition. Him running as a progressive is what drew media personalities to him and made him a household name in the country and in Texas. He could've tried to persuade the center but I think Cruz would've still held.

He most likely came to the conclusion he needed more name recognition after the primary. Which he almost lost to a faceless "berniecrat" with a Hispanic last name. According to a politico article I was reading earlier, it was around this time he started campaigning for more radically leftward ideas and got a buzz around him.

Sure it got him name recognition but a lot of the stuff he's running on is just not gonna work in Texas and I'm shocked he actually went through with it. You could replace him with any Democrat from California and there'd hardly be any difference lol, and I know it's all anecdotal but every Texan I know looks at him that way and refuses to support him as a result.

The thing is, I'm fairly sure this was his best bet.

In this partisan climate and in Texas of all places, most people may not be able to stomach a vote for Cruz or a faceless Democrat. Praying that Cruz's base is suppressed enough while launching a hail mary to enchant as many people as possible by any means necessary. It's desperate, but he's a Democrat running in Texas.

[Ngelmish]

The Democrats hold it.

I really could see it going either way tbh

Oh, so could I, but as someone who votes and is otherwise active in Indiana politics, if I have to make a call one way or the other, I'm calling it for Donnelly.

[The South Falls]

Who said Beto was that far left?

[The Black Forrest]

Who said Beto was that far left?

He is a democrat so duh!

[Washington Resistance Army]

Who said Beto was that far left?

For Texas he absolutely is. Running on things Medicare For All, guns bans, total support for abortion etc etc isn't exactly a winning platform for a southern state.

[Cannot think of a name]

The tracker at 538 went to 1 in 5 for the Democrats for the Senate, which would be exciting if it wasn't way too late.

It's actually probably more exciting if you think about it. Polls are tightening in the home stretch which opens the door for some radical outcomes.

I was going to try and figure out what it did to the math on their article about systemic polling failure required for the Dems to win the election then I had a good laugh about me doing that much math...