America's Uncertain Future

[Shrillland]

A recent editorial in the Guardian made by the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill's Marc Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler basically confirmed what many of us believed but, deep down, didn't want to see confirmed: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/06/democrats-republicans-kavanaugh-polarization

In it, these two professors manage to show two things: First, that what someone on anyone's given side does in terms of bad things(such as corruption or even sexual harassment) ultimately doesn't matter to that side because we've so polarised in the US that even bad people who share our ideology are better than good people who oppose it. This is because that ideology is no longer seen as a different view but an existential threat to the nation. Second, it shows that, for the first time since opinion polls were created, a person's worldview and parenting decisions shape their politics. In short, nobody merely disagrees anymore, they genuinely hate each other.

Earlier this year, a sizable number of people said in a Rasmussen/USA Today poll said that this extreme animosity could explode into a second Civil War: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2018/31_think_u_s_civil_war_likely_soon

The numbers are fairly even for all sides, 37% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans, and 26% of others think that the current administration's policies and actions could lead to violent responses from their opponents. This doesn't take into account the possibility that supporters of the administration could start physical assaults on opponents.

Now, before I end up making this a blog, the question I have to ask you, good NSG, is simple: Are you among those or not? Do you think that the situation is so intense that the USA could devolve into ideological conflict in the near future?

Me personally? I think there's a nonzero possibility that that could happen within the next 10 years at worst. Even with Trump out of the picture in 2021(as may happen), the underlying problems are still there for this nation to implode. And it won't be like the First War where states secede, it'll be more like modern civil wars, much messier with only general ideas of who would run what.

Who is making this up?

The United States today is hella stable compared to the 1820's, 1850's and amongst a damnable amount of other years. A now specifically even more when Truman enacted term limits on the Presidential office. The possibility of the United States collapsing into a myriad of succesor states fighting over control over what daddy's hegemony is absolutely non-existent. And who ever is pushing this narrative is uniformed and should be ignored.

First, I didn't say it absolutely would happen. Nonzero doesn't mean 100% or even 50%, I think 15% in the worst case, but it's just depressing that anything above zero is feasible IMO. Though I'll gladly agree that we're far more stable than we were in some of our other periods.

Second, as I said, it wouldn't be successor states, it would be a general left vs. right with a couple of states that might try to get off the boat in the process.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Who is making this up?

The United States today is hella stable compared to the 1820's, 1850's and amongst a damnable amount of other years. A now specifically even more when Truman enacted term limits on the Presidential office. The possibility of the United States collapsing into a myriad of succesor states fighting over control over what daddy's hegemony is absolutely non-existent. And who ever is pushing this narrative is uniformed and should be ignored.

First, I didn't say it absolutely would happen. Nonzero doesn't mean 100% or even 50%, I think 15% in the worst case, but it's just depressing that anything above zero is feasible IMO. Though I'll gladly agree that we're far more stable than we were in some of our other periods.

Second, as I said, it wouldn't be successor states, it would be a general left vs. right with a couple of states that might try to get off the boat in the process.

California, Texas and New England might get cocky and attempt to scamper off, but it wouldn't last very long since whatever side would win would prioritize bringing back any former US lands back into its fold.

That said, even those three potential breakaways are unlikely, since California is a Democrat bastion, Texas a Republican fortress, and New England would most likely just attempt to wait out the storm (maybe by aligning with Canada if it isn't also suffering instability from the loss of its largest trading partner, and the guaranteed inability of its tiny army to handle the uncontrolled fires of civil war raging across the largest land border in the world).

New England aligning with Canada might sound like something straight out of Kaiserreich, but it just seems like a logical conclusion due to New England having particularly strong bonds with Canada (especially Quebec and the Atlantic provinces).

We do sell most of our hydroelectricity to the northeastern portion of the US, for example.

[The Serbian Empire]

I have my doubts that it could survive 25 years without having the Senate dissolved due to the difficulty of passing legislation through there.

[NS Miami Shores]

We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.

I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.

I voted No, and I'm looking forward to it! The Poll is not very good but it is not my right to make the Poll. If this issue is true, it is not the fault of President Trump and the Right, both the Right and the Left are partisans to their economic, political and social views.

But we have just gone through an NS World War 3 on the Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread. I really do hate us reporting each other to the Mods for anything we can think of, to get our fellow nations in trouble and banned from NS, read my sig.

[The Serbian Empire]

Friendly reminder that political polarization in the United States has been and continues to be asymmetric.

So if anyone is going to spark a civil war, it's probably going to be the far righties, just as soon as they are done running concentration camps for children and running people over with their cars like Muslim extremists.

Pew Research says that Democrats have been worse in public surveys compared to the Republicans in being consistently polarised.

You link to an article saying "Don't trust Pew Research, look at this <proceeds to give House of Representatives coalition figures since 1940s"

Then you proceed to say these people are going to spark a civil war. I doubt 200 people will do a lot.

If you want to talk about more than 200 people, it's inevitably going to have to be the 60+ million plus liberals who, according to Pew Research, have been worse at polarisation. House votes don't matter. The thread is clearly not about the US Congress, but about the public at large. So you're either ignorant or deliberately misleading. Given your post history, it's likely a combination of both.

There's a key reason why the right would be the most likely. Liberals have very low gun ownership rates when compared to the GOP base. It's not that the left lacks the desire, but they lack the access to weapons that makes a Civil War highly unlikely to come from them.

[Genivaria]

I honestly think that the people who celebrate the idea of America falling into some kind of ideological civil war are revealing just how spoiled they are.

These people do not realize just how vital our democratic institutions are to keeping the peace and preventing the kind of people who would simply have us put against the wall and shot from coming into power.
The people calling for blood make the stupid assumption that not only will 'their side' win but that they'll be lucky enough to escape the purges when the dust settles.

A regime founded in blood is maintained by blood.

[The Serbian Empire]

I honestly think that the people who celebrate the idea of America falling into some kind of ideological civil war are revealing just how spoiled they are.

These people do not realize just how vital our democratic institutions are to keeping the peace and preventing the kind of people who would simply have us put against the wall and shot from coming into power.
The people calling for blood make the stupid assumption that not only will 'their side' win but that they'll be lucky enough to escape the purges when the dust settles.

A regime founded in blood is maintained by blood.

The US was born from blood as it had to war to even become independent. Otherwise, they would have been British colonies until Canada got independence about 100 years later.

[Genivaria]

I honestly think that the people who celebrate the idea of America falling into some kind of ideological civil war are revealing just how spoiled they are.

These people do not realize just how vital our democratic institutions are to keeping the peace and preventing the kind of people who would simply have us put against the wall and shot from coming into power.
The people calling for blood make the stupid assumption that not only will 'their side' win but that they'll be lucky enough to escape the purges when the dust settles.

A regime founded in blood is maintained by blood.

The US was born from blood as it had to war to even become independent. Otherwise, they would have been British colonies until Canada got independence about 100 years later.

When I say 'founded in blood' I'm referring to a regime of extremes that purges all those that disagree with it, not what was essentially a war for Independence.

[Northeast American Federation]

I honestly think that the people who celebrate the idea of America falling into some kind of ideological civil war are revealing just how spoiled they are.

These people do not realize just how vital our democratic institutions are to keeping the peace and preventing the kind of people who would simply have us put against the wall and shot from coming into power.
The people calling for blood make the stupid assumption that not only will 'their side' win but that they'll be lucky enough to escape the purges when the dust settles.

A regime founded in blood is maintained by blood.

I don't know that anyone outside the hyper-radicals (a term I use since damn near everyone who isn't on a fence somewhere is radicalizing to some extent) is actually celebrating the idea that we might be cruising for Civil War 2: Nuclear Boogaloo. It's just something that's being predicted as a serious possibility, more so than it has been in a while.

[Pope Joan]

THings are no different in the USA than they are in the UK or France these days; anywhere one can still express an opinion has similar side-taking

and in places like Turkey and Saudi Arabia and China where such things are frowned upon, they still go on, under wraps.

One positive trend is voters saying "a pox on both your houses" and turning to outsiders like Bernie and Trump to stand up to the globalists,

The media uses those two guys as symbols of opposing values, but the established interests realize that they both represent a very similar threat.

[Bakery Hill]

Friendly reminder that political polarization in the United States has been and continues to be asymmetric.

So if anyone is going to spark a civil war, it's probably going to be the far righties, just as soon as they are done running concentration camps for children and running people over with their cars like Muslim extremists.

Pew Research says that Democrats have been worse in public surveys compared to the Republicans in being consistently polarised.

You link to an article saying "Don't trust Pew Research, look at this <proceeds to give House of Representatives coalition figures since 1940s"

Then you proceed to say these people are going to spark a civil war. I doubt 200 people will do a lot.

If you want to talk about more than 200 people, it's inevitably going to have to be the 60+ million plus liberals who, according to Pew Research, have been worse at polarisation. House votes don't matter. The thread is clearly not about the US Congress, but about the public at large. So you're either ignorant or deliberately misleading. Given your post history, it's likely a combination of both.

It's really hard to measure polarisation and ideological shift given how different issues are prioritised at different times, how the overton window changes etc. If you've got a foolproof way of doing it I'd like to take a look.

[Valrifell]

I have my doubts that it could survive 25 years without having the Senate dissolved due to the difficulty of passing legislation through there.

25 years is a very long time politically speaking.

It's the difference between your Kennedys and Reagans.

[Mivakia]

I don't think these recent events are going to spark a civil war. It certainly divides us more, which adds more fuel to the fire, but it's not enough. Something deeply wrong would have to happen, like dissolving congress, genocide, not transferring power after an election, etc. with other officials not doing anything to stop it.

[Shrillland]

I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.

I voted No, and I'm looking forward to it! The Poll is not very good but it is not my right to make the Poll. If this issue is true, it is not the fault of President Trump and the Right, both the Right and the Left are partisans to their economic, political and social views.

But we have just gone through an NS World War 3 on the Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread. I really do hate us reporting each other to the Mods for anything we can think of, to get our fellow nations in trouble and banned from NS, read my sig.

Sorry, I thought that a simple yes or no wasn't too sufficient...what options should I add, you think? I'm not trying to be snide, I'm genuinely curious what you think.

[Luziyca]

To be honest, I am pretty sure that the recent events are probably going to spark a civil war: maybe not now or in a couple years, but I imagine that 2021 will be when another American civil war breaks out.

All I can hope for is that when the structure of America inevitably collapses due to lack of maintenance, that Canada is no longer aligned to the US, and is aligned to Brussels or Beijing, just so we won't be going down the same path as them.

[Washington Resistance Army]

To be honest, I am pretty sure that the recent events are probably going to spark a civil war: maybe not now or in a couple years, but I imagine that 2021 will be when another American civil war breaks out.

All I can hope for is that when the structure of America inevitably collapses due to lack of maintenance, that Canada is no longer aligned to the US, and is aligned to Brussels or Beijing, just so we won't be going down the same path as them.

By that point Canada is probably just going to be an open puppet of China with how much they've infiltrated your nation tbh

[Luziyca]

To be honest, I am pretty sure that the recent events are probably going to spark a civil war: maybe not now or in a couple years, but I imagine that 2021 will be when another American civil war breaks out.

All I can hope for is that when the structure of America inevitably collapses due to lack of maintenance, that Canada is no longer aligned to the US, and is aligned to Brussels or Beijing, just so we won't be going down the same path as them.

By that point Canada is probably just going to be an open puppet of China with how much they've infiltrated your nation tbh

At least the advantage is that they're an ocean away: we won't be exposed as much to Chinese culture (outside of Vancouver and its surrounding environs) compared to how much we're being exposed to American culture.

But realistically, I imagine that if America collapses, Canada probably will do so soon enough.

[Shrillland]

By that point Canada is probably just going to be an open puppet of China with how much they've infiltrated your nation tbh

At least the advantage is that they're an ocean away: we won't be exposed as much to Chinese culture (outside of Vancouver and its surrounding environs) compared to how much we're being exposed to American culture.

But realistically, I imagine that if America collapses, Canada probably will do so soon enough.

Hopefully not...if the UK goes to a People's Vote(and that's all I'll say on that subject), Canada can look to Europe for hope as can the rest of the world.

And you wouldn't be alone, doubtless the Chinese will carve up large parts of the West Coast as spheres of influence if all things go downhill....I don't know if it would be as soon as 2021, only if Trump was to refuse to leave and a chunk of the army stood by him.

[Manokan Republic]

When you look at the fact people can accuse someone like Kavanaugh of rape, with no evidence, but actually believe it, and then think they are justified in harassing him, other politicians and violent individuals... we are in for a big problem.

Just like accusing people of being a nazi, with no evidence, these people actually will believe a baseless allegation, and from there use that to justify violence or political attacks of some kind. As long as people keep making shit up, and believing it, they can make up anything, and therefore justify murdering another person based on literally nothing. As long as this continues, there will inevitably be a inclination towards violence.

[Luziyca]

At least the advantage is that they're an ocean away: we won't be exposed as much to Chinese culture (outside of Vancouver and its surrounding environs) compared to how much we're being exposed to American culture.

But realistically, I imagine that if America collapses, Canada probably will do so soon enough.

Hopefully not...if the UK goes to a People's Vote(and that's all I'll say on that subject), Canada can look to Europe for hope as can the rest of the world.

And you wouldn't be alone, doubtless the Chinese will carve up large parts of the West Coast as spheres of influence if all things go downhill....I don't know if it would be as soon as 2021, only if Trump was to refuse to leave and a chunk of the army stood by him.

Agreed. But the reason why I think it'll be as soon as 2021 will be because if Trump loses in 2020, I am very certain his supporters will not accept his defeat and will resort to trying and make sure that he gets into power.

If Canada is still aligned to the USA by then, we're pretty much fucked: if we're aligned to China or the EU (even without Britain), we'll at least be secure and not be dragged into too much into the coming conflict.

[Neo Canada]

America, for the foreseeable future, looks to be doing relatively alright. The Americans have had a very stable mid 20th to early 21st century and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

[Narland]

...Now, before I end up making this a blog, the question I have to ask you, good NSG, is simple: Are you among those or not? Do you think that the situation is so intense that the USA could devolve into ideological conflict in the near future?...

America is founded on objective ideals by which each generation has had to strive. Each generation of Americans have had the good fortune to fight evil in its time. Some evils were more pressing to end than others and sometimes we have failed spectacularly at recognizing the evil in our midst. At times it skips a generation and the grandchildren or great-grandchildren have to take up the slack.

We are an experiment on whether duly constituted Classical Liberalism in Republican form rooted in Western Civilization can endure as a lasting form of government. To the extent that it is adhered it has not only endured but thrived. We have gone from a 3rd world group of exploited Colonies by an imperial world power to within 150 years ending slavery, enacting suffrage, ending childhood labor, creating the sociological phenomena of "teenager," to by its Bicentennial landing a man on the moon and growing enough food to feed the world. Not to mention the intellectual and technological innovation that comes with limited governance, a Protestant work ethic and adequate schooling in education and morality. Liberty, equal justice under law, and self-ownership of one's person and one's very own means of production (should one choose) historically is the rare exception not the rule and we are always ever one generation away from loosing this.

This is the heritage of living in a (since the 21st Century a relatively) free country. Each American is free to live his life as he sees fit. This means that they are free to make mistakes, learn from them and become better people than they were yesterday. Some to excellence and some to harm. We have been and are in a Cultural Civil War wherein some want to perfect the Union, and some want to fundamentally change and replace it.

This is the heritage for the next generation. Can a we remain a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, or will we relent to a governing political class that seeks to rule us as the European Powers historically have done to their subjects and colonists? Can we retain life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness; or will we continue to revert back to some form of despotism? I think the American People will rise to the occasion to eventually do the right thing even if those promoting insurrection and rebellion in either party against Liberty and Equality precipitate another Civil or Revolutionary War.

[Great Minarchistan]

this is what happens when you abandon the classically liberal pinnacle of politics

[Manokan Republic]

Directing traffic???? AAAAAAAHHHH!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!

Also, if right-wing extremism is not a threat to "Western civilisation", that should give you pause. Because that means that "Western civilisation" has a greater capacity to tolerate a policy of murder, assault and harrassment against minorities, and could also tolerate various forms of ethnic cleansing. If your civilisation can tolerate that without having its identity put into question, without such atrocities presenting a direct contradiction to it, then your civilisation is shit.

Racism is not automatically conservative or right-wing, like for example the neo-nazi bernie sanders supporter.

Nazis are national socialists, and thus also generally not right wing either. It's in the automatic assumption that all things bad, or all things racist are automatically right-wing where yours and a lot of other people's problem lies.

[Manokan Republic]

While far-right activity is limited to a few isolated real-life incidents, and repeated usage of racial slurs on twitter, the far-left is out there rioting and taking over streets

The far right has innocent blood on its hands. The far left doesn't. People with far left ideas didn't run over protestors or shoot up schools. People with far right ideas did.

Actually they did, many on the far left have shot innocent people, be it police officers, innocent people in riots and so on. Name the the last conservative riot? Even the charloestville thing didn't kill anyone in the riot itself, and even if you want to consider it a riot, that's one single one compared to the dozens by people on the left. The idea that anyone the far left goes after is bad, that all police are racist or all of antifa's victims are actually fascist, just due to their name, is quite frankly absurd. And while the "far-right's" views don't actually line up with mainstream conservative viewpoints, many on the left, including Hillary clinton, really do believe that most conservatives are nazi fascist, racist monsters who need to be killed an attacked. Maxine waters calls for harassment of all conservatives, along with others, that is actual sitting politicians, which is mainstream left; various media websites call for or downplay violence, that is members of the mainstream left, not fringe groups with nothing in common with the average conservative.

Clearly the far left goes after innocent people, be it harassing congressmen, anyone vaguely associated with trump like kavanaugh, or outright trying to kill them, like with Steve Scalise, a congressmen. I mean the idea that the far left never goes after innocent people... no, just no. You are living in a fantasy world if you think that's true.