America's Uncertain Future

[Frievolk]

Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!

Do you really want a civil war? Because there's no way you will not get a civil war if Trump gets impeached -or worse, couped out of the office.

[New Trasivolia]

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!

That is exactly what will ignite the Next Civil War.

I don't want a Civil War, but Trump is leading us down a dangerous path. Worsening relations with our allies, corruption in the White House, insulting the working class. I was stating an example of how to get him out of office, not saying there needs to be one.

[Shrillland]

That is exactly what will ignite the Next Civil War.

I don't want a Civil War, but Trump is leading us down a dangerous path. Worsening relations with our allies, corruption in the White House, insulting the working class. I was stating an example of how to get him out of office, not saying there needs to be one.

Even without him, the underlying problems are still there. Trump is merely a symptom, not the virus itself.

[Toaslandia]

That is exactly what will ignite the Next Civil War.

I don't want a Civil War, but Trump is leading us down a dangerous path. Worsening relations with our allies, corruption in the White House, insulting the working class. I was stating an example of how to get him out of office, not saying there needs to be one.

Okay, but I don't think coup would do any good. Impeachment would at least mean the Conservatives rising up would be declared rebels, and we would gain support from the International Community.

[Toaslandia]

I don't want a Civil War, but Trump is leading us down a dangerous path. Worsening relations with our allies, corruption in the White House, insulting the working class. I was stating an example of how to get him out of office, not saying there needs to be one.

Even without him, the underlying problems are still there. Trump is merely a symptom, not the virus itself.

Have you ever heard of the Roman Republic? Lasted a long time and worked pretty well. I think we should adopt some of the ideas the Romans had during their Republic, like having two consuls who were basically the presidents. They had to agree on a law for it to be passed, so one man does not have control over the Executive branch.

[Aigania]

It is difficult to say, but although the people are centered in the political clashes they are only at sideshow.
Only the superficial signs of economic, cultural and ecological forces in action. Besides there are multiple cycles coinciding ... The ending of a Kondratiev wave in economics, the beginning of the Caesarism for Western Civilization.

For a rule of thumb the work of Sir John Glubb about the Fate of Empires.

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-2F_iHS6BLtGJb2ad/TheFateofEmpiresbySirJohnGlubb_djvu.txt

Although some of the dates are debatable, it gives an average lifespan of an empire of 238.45 and a 18.35 standard deviation. So for the United States given the date of independence of 1776 or the Louisiana Purchase 1803 (as the beginning of the expansion) , we have an estimation from 2014 to 2041 (give or taken the deviation) to have an ending existential crisis for the United States.

[Frievolk]

It is difficult to say, but although the people are centered in the political clashes they are only at sideshow.
Only the superficial signs of economic, cultural and ecological forces in action. Besides there are multiple cycles coinciding ... The ending of a Kondratiev wave in economics, the beginning of the Caesarism for Western Civilization.

For a rule of thumb the work of Sir John Glubb about the Fate of Empires.

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-2F_iHS6BLtGJb2ad/TheFateofEmpiresbySirJohnGlubb_djvu.txt

Although some of the dates are debatable, it gives an average lifespan of an empire of 238.45 and a 18.35 standard deviation. So for the United States given the date of independence of 1776 or the Louisiana Purchase 1803 (as the beginning of the expansion) , we have an estimation from 2014 to 2041 (give or taken the deviation) to have an ending existential crisis for the United States.

I don't think anyone doubts here that the US will at the very least cease to be the world's superpower in this generation. My question is, what will happen next?
Because I also doubt Russia will survive as a superpower for much longer.

[Toaslandia]

It is difficult to say, but although the people are centered in the political clashes they are only at sideshow.
Only the superficial signs of economic, cultural and ecological forces in action. Besides there are multiple cycles coinciding ... The ending of a Kondratiev wave in economics, the beginning of the Caesarism for Western Civilization.

For a rule of thumb the work of Sir John Glubb about the Fate of Empires.

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-2F_iHS6BLtGJb2ad/TheFateofEmpiresbySirJohnGlubb_djvu.txt

Although some of the dates are debatable, it gives an average lifespan of an empire of 238.45 and a 18.35 standard deviation. So for the United States given the date of independence of 1776 or the Louisiana Purchase 1803 (as the beginning of the expansion) , we have an estimation from 2014 to 2041 (give or taken the deviation) to have an ending existential crisis for the United States.

I don't think anyone doubts here that the US will at the very least cease to be the world's superpower in this generation. My question is, what will happen next?
Because I also doubt Russia will survive as a superpower for much longer.

Most likely chaos in America and the International Community because America is pretty important on the world stage. It provides monetary and military aid, leads the fight against terrorism, and is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Without it, most likely the states (or possibly even cities) would break off and form their own countries. If nuclear war ensues, we could see a potential Dark Age in America, a truly frightening thought.

[Kaggeceria]

There's been civil instability and violent street clashes before. The 60s were killed with that sort of shit.

I don't think we're at the point of a civil war just yet. There's still time.

[Aigania]

It is difficult to say, but although the people are centered in the political clashes they are only at sideshow.
Only the superficial signs of economic, cultural and ecological forces in action. Besides there are multiple cycles coinciding ... The ending of a Kondratiev wave in economics, the beginning of the Caesarism for Western Civilization.

For a rule of thumb the work of Sir John Glubb about the Fate of Empires.

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-2F_iHS6BLtGJb2ad/TheFateofEmpiresbySirJohnGlubb_djvu.txt

Although some of the dates are debatable, it gives an average lifespan of an empire of 238.45 and a 18.35 standard deviation. So for the United States given the date of independence of 1776 or the Louisiana Purchase 1803 (as the beginning of the expansion) , we have an estimation from 2014 to 2041 (give or taken the deviation) to have an ending existential crisis for the United States.

I don't think anyone doubts here that the US will at the very least cease to be the world's superpower in this generation. My question is, what will happen next?
Because I also doubt Russia will survive as a superpower for much longer.

You are right. Russia is doomed (long term) by their demography.

I think the future the world might resemble the Europe of the Imperial Era. It will a imperfect multipolar, with several Great Powers, like the United States (depending of the crisis, the first among others, but not longer the omnipotent superpower), and other states of continental size like China (which probably will make a dash to the top), Europe (if it survives the current population decline and economic concerns), and perhaps India in a longer timescale along Brazil (they have serious internal problems).

[Lakarta]

I really do hope what Toaslandia said will turn out to be false, I have been seeing sign of violence just waiting to happen in my town. People seeming on edge, gangs marking their territory more boldly, and the news getting scarier. I fear America is on its last legs.

[Infected Mushroom]

Unless the USA gives dictatorship a chance, there can be no salvation for the nation.

Bipartisanship is tearing the nation apart, just like their gun policies. Democracy is not working.

[New Trasivolia]

Hopefully the US stays stable for a few more generations, but it never hurts to prepare for the worst. Personally, I believe America can last a few more years, but not much more than about 10, 20 at tops.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Hopefully the US stays stable for a few more generations, but it never hurts to prepare for the worst. Personally, I believe America can last a few more years, but not much more than about 10, 20 at tops.

I don't even think it will hold itself together by the time of the 2020 elections, let alone "a few generations".

[New Trasivolia]

Unless the USA gives dictatorship a chance, there can be no salvation for the nation.

Bipartisanship is tearing the nation apart, just like their gun policies. Democracy is not working.

I agree, but not with a dictatorship. We should give Socialism a chance, as it makes sure everyone has enough and is usually run by a council, not one man.

[Loben]

Unless the USA gives dictatorship a chance, there can be no salvation for the nation.

Bipartisanship is tearing the nation apart, just like their gun policies. Democracy is not working.

I agree, but not with a dictatorship. We should give Socialism a chance, as it makes sure everyone has enough and is usually run by a council, not one man.

No.

*hell no*

[New Trasivolia]

Hopefully the US stays stable for a few more generations, but it never hurts to prepare for the worst. Personally, I believe America can last a few more years, but not much more than about 10, 20 at tops.

I don't even think it will hold itself together by the time of the 2020 elections, let alone "a few generations".

Just trying to be positive, but I agree with you.

[New Trasivolia]

I agree, but not with a dictatorship. We should give Socialism a chance, as it makes sure everyone has enough and is usually run by a council, not one man.

No.

*hell no*

Better than being ruled by a dictator.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

No.

*hell no*

Better than being ruled by a dictator.

Considering that most Republicans hold a deep hatred of socialism...

I'll take the dictatorship.

[New Trasivolia]

I like having a little freedom, unless this dictator happens to not be power hungry, I'll stick with socialism.

[Toaslandia]

I like having a little freedom, unless this dictator happens to not be power hungry, I'll stick with socialism.

How about a Federation of states......wait, were already that.
How about just a mix of socialism and dictatorship, which leads to communism!
But seriously, a dictatorship or completely socialist government would either lead to a American Reich or American USSR.

[Skaldia]

What we are seeing is the natural progression of a civilization. The Age of Decadence is coming to an end and we are now entering the Age of Consequences. I try not to frame it as the fault of the left or the right but something far more insidious and systemic. If anything, one can make the argument that it was going to happen regardless of what we decided or who actually ran the country. I can point to several places where our fate was made all the more realistic but ultimately they would serve no purpose, only as a gift in hindsight.

But, I'll tell you one thing. If the USA splinters apart, there goes the global economy and world peace. Without the threat of US interventionism, old wounds will be opened and war will ignite to the likes we haven't seen since WWII. And having the few nuclear powers we already have is bad enough. Imagine a thousand nuclear powers just on the American continent? Canada couldn't intervene because their military isn't up to the job. Let's not even discuss what would happen to their own economies. They'd hardly be in a position to provide any sort of aid in the event of a Civil War. Europe would be much the same; they have more than enough to deal with as is.

Democracy was doomed to fail. Not because it was the wrong system of governance but because that is the inevitable result of any government; they all become more and more autocratic as time goes by. The fact that the US system has done so well compared to others is a testament that, if done right, the US system works splendidly. You just can't curb human factors, greed being the primary motivator for a government failing. And no, this isn't a dig at capitalism either. Capitalism has done more for the world, brought more people out of poverty, than in the history of mankind. Whether this is due to a rise in technological levels or purely because of a capitalist economy is a matter of debate; one can argue the leap in technology could not have occurred if it wasn't for the drive to excel and succeed that was a cornerstone of the American culture up until the 1960's in my opinion.

Will Civil War break out? Probably. I predict not until the mid-2020's at least though. Most likely by 2050 though for sure. Changing demographics, a broken infrastructure, poor public education, a burgeoning welfare state, ideological divisions that become more severe as the years pile on, a police state, and a debt bubble that the 2008 crisis should have alerted us to and is going to make the Great Depression look like a holiday cruise, are all leading to an inevitable conflict.

Do I think there are things we can do to derail or halt the inevitable? Yes, I do. I've thought about these matters extensively but even I don't think the solutions I've come up with could permanently end the threat of civil conflict. It's things like this that terrify me. I have a son and I want to see him grow up in a world where he has as much an opportunity to exceed as everyone else in this great nation of ours. However, I cannot put on the blinders and ignore reality either. I can only hope and pray that I am wrong and, if not, that solutions to our many failings are realized.

Until then, I'm going to stock up, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

[Aclion]

The partisans part could have happened. Trump said during the election that if he lost he wouldn't go away.

The partisan part did happen. It doesn't take long to find people on the left who legitimately believe the "Not My President!" bullshit and think his entire administration is illegally in place.

The partisan part has been a tink since bush vrs gore.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Well, I assume now is the time to maybe invest in a firearms license and a Stoeger coach gun, just for the "We never know" factor.

[Toaslandia]

What we are seeing is the natural progression of a civilization. The Age of Decadence is coming to an end and we are now entering the Age of Consequences. I try not to frame it as the fault of the left or the right but something far more insidious and systemic. If anything, one can make the argument that it was going to happen regardless of what we decided or who actually ran the country. I can point to several places where our fate was made all the more realistic but ultimately they would serve no purpose, only as a gift in hindsight.

But, I'll tell you one thing. If the USA splinters apart, there goes the global economy and world peace. Without the threat of US interventionism, old wounds will be opened and war will ignite to the likes we haven't seen since WWII. And having the few nuclear powers we already have is bad enough. Imagine a thousand nuclear powers just on the American continent? Canada couldn't intervene because their military isn't up to the job. Let's not even discuss what would happen to their own economies. They'd hardly be in a position to provide any sort of aid in the event of a Civil War. Europe would be much the same; they have more than enough to deal with as is.

Democracy was doomed to fail. Not because it was the wrong system of governance but because that is the inevitable result of any government; they all become more and more autocratic as time goes by. The fact that the US system has done so well compared to others is a testament that, if done right, the US system works splendidly. You just can't curb human factors, greed being the primary motivator for a government failing. And no, this isn't a dig at capitalism either. Capitalism has done more for the world, brought more people out of poverty, than in the history of mankind. Whether this is due to a rise in technological levels or purely because of a capitalist economy is a matter of debate; one can argue the leap in technology could not have occurred if it wasn't for the drive to excel and succeed that was a cornerstone of the American culture up until the 1960's in my opinion.

Will Civil War break out? Probably. I predict not until the mid-2020's at least though. Most likely by 2050 though for sure. Changing demographics, a broken infrastructure, poor public education, a burgeoning welfare state, ideological divisions that become more severe as the years pile on, a police state, and a debt bubble that the 2008 crisis should have alerted us to and is going to make the Great Depression look like a holiday cruise, are all leading to an inevitable conflict.

Do I think there are things we can do to derail or halt the inevitable? Yes, I do. I've thought about these matters extensively but even I don't think the solutions I've come up with could permanently end the threat of civil conflict. It's things like this that terrify me. I have a son and I want to see him grow up in a world where he has as much an opportunity to exceed as everyone else in this great nation of ours. However, I cannot put on the blinders and ignore reality either. I can only hope and pray that I am wrong and, if not, that solutions to our many failings are realized.

Until then, I'm going to stock up, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

Hopefully I'll be in Ireland by then so I'm just hoping Trump doesn't basically announce that he's making slavery legal again or something like that because the US is in a leadership role. If it crumbles, the world will follow suit, maybe not immediately, but it will crumble. If we tough it out and remain democratic, the world will follow our lead. If a dictator takes over, peace will be impossible for the world.