US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Zurkerx]

I can't really see any situation in which the Dems win majority in the Senate. That just seems way too unlikely this year.

The map is most likely not going to change much. I think it will be a 50-50 to 52-48, regardless of who's in power.

Here's my prediction as of 7/18:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8roPWl

Right now I don't see that, TN should come back at some point, WV is touch-and-go because whatever President Trump does might decide that race, FL- Scott's lead might be overblown and was not expecting a tightening until later

TN has a popular former governor/moderate running. Blackburn might be popular within her constituency but, I'm not entirely sure if she could win, even with Trump's backing although it would be close. Manchin is a red-state Democrat, and they tend to be able to defend their seats well even if they seem vulnerable. As for Scott, his popularity with Cuban/Puerto Ricans is stronger than Neslon although, that's probably because they know Scott more than Neslon.

I peg the map won't change much although, a lot can change within a 100 days+.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

I can't really see any situation in which the Dems win majority in the Senate. That just seems way too unlikely this year.

The map is most likely not going to change much. I think it will be a 50-50 to 52-48, regardless of who's in power.

Right now I don't see that, TN should come back at some point, WV is touch-and-go because whatever President Trump does might decide that race, FL- Scott's lead might be overblown and was not expecting a tightening until later

TN has a popular former governor/moderate running. Blackburn might be popular within her constituency but, I'm not entirely sure if she could win, even with Trump's backing although it would be close. Manchin is a red-state Democrat, and they tend to be able to defend their seats well even if they seem vulnerable. As for Scott, his popularity with Cuban/Puerto Ricans is stronger than Neslon although, that's probably because they know Scott more than Neslon.

I peg the map won't change much although, a lot can change within a 100 days+.

WV will be determined if President Trump endorses Morrisey, or if Blankenship could make it a three-way race or even a combination of both. FL will be tight, but I expected that to come later toward Election Day, not now.

[Freezic Vast]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

Watch WV if President Trump endorses Morrisey, NJ could be a surprise, and MO maybe, but other than that, with the current polls I would agree with that statement.

[Freezic Vast]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

Watch WV if President Trump endorses Morrisey, NJ could be a surprise, and MO maybe, but other than that, with the current polls I would agree with that statement.

That would be surprising especially for someone as popular as Manchin and someone who'd seem as safe in a state like NJ despite the corruption. A best case scenario for the GOP would be about 55-45 to 52-48, and getting 60+ seats seems more like a wet dream that would not happen at all.

[Shrillland]

I'm personally projecting no change. Dems will win NV, AZ, and TN while they'll lose IN, ND, and MO. Donnelly might have been able to pull it off, but the initiative has been wrested from him by the SCOTUS battle. Effectively, he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't thanks to that.

[Thermodolia]

Trump endorsed Brain Kemp for governor today. Honestly I agree with Trump on this one Kemp, while he did some really dumb things, isn’t as bad as Cagle who is openly Malicious

[Shrillland]

Trump endorsed Brain Kemp for governor today. Honestly I agree with Trump on this one Kemp, while he did some really dumb things, isn’t as bad as Cagle who is openly Malicious

So much for Cagle's attempts to paint Kemp as disloyal. Kemp has it in the bag now...and if the polls are anything to go by, so does Abrams come November.

[Thermodolia]

I can't really see any situation in which the Dems win majority in the Senate. That just seems way too unlikely this year.

If anything it’s going to be 50/50 and that’s the best chance

[Thermodolia]

Trump endorsed Brain Kemp for governor today. Honestly I agree with Trump on this one Kemp, while he did some really dumb things, isn’t as bad as Cagle who is openly Malicious

So much for Cagle's attempts to paint Kemp as disloyal. Kemp has it in the bag now...and if the polls are anything to go by, so does Abrams come November.

Cagle lost my vote after the Delta mess and his willingness to fuck over LGBT Georgians, plus his general scummyness. I don’t know if Abrams will be able to win or not, it’s going to be a close one though, but if she doesn’t I’d rather have Kemp then Cagle

[Shrillland]

So much for Cagle's attempts to paint Kemp as disloyal. Kemp has it in the bag now...and if the polls are anything to go by, so does Abrams come November.

Cagle lost my vote after the Delta mess and his willingness to fuck over LGBT Georgians, plus his general scummyness. I don’t know if Abrams will be able to win or not, it’s going to be a close one though, but if she doesn’t I’d rather have Kemp then Cagle

Well,an internal poll from her campaign(so taken with salt) had her ahead of Kemp by nine points. It'll be closer in reality, but I think she'll be able to do it.

[Thermodolia]

Cagle lost my vote after the Delta mess and his willingness to fuck over LGBT Georgians, plus his general scummyness. I don’t know if Abrams will be able to win or not, it’s going to be a close one though, but if she doesn’t I’d rather have Kemp then Cagle

Well,an internal poll from her campaign(so taken with salt) had her ahead of Kemp by nine points. It'll be closer in reality, but I think she'll be able to do it.

She might, as of June 2018 Georgia is rated likely R which is different from a year ago when it was a solid R

[Shrillland]

Here's another interesting primary story from Alaska: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Candidate-for-Alaska-House-doesn-t-live-in-Alaska-13084796.php

Doesn't even live in the state or plans to campaign there, but she's serious about running even though it would be unconstitutional. Not like she has a chance anyway.

[Myrensis]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

Watch WV if President Trump endorses Morrisey, NJ could be a surprise, and MO maybe, but other than that, with the current polls I would agree with that statement.

I think Manchin is in a reasonably good position regardless, but especially with Blankenship deciding to run 3rd Party, don't think Trump cheerleading for Morrisey will be enough to swing it.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

Poll Update Incoming
California 48th District- Rohrabacher vs Rouda- Monmouth
Rouda 47%
Rohrabacher 45%
Rouda +2

Hawaii Governor- Dem Primary- Mason-Dixon
Ige 44%
Hamabusa 40%
Ige +4

Hawaii Governor- GOP Primary- Mason-Dixon
Tupola 41%
Carroll 28%
L'Heureux 8%
Tupola +13

Hawaii Governor- Tupola vs Ige- Mason-Dixon
Ige 57%
Tupola 34%
Ige +23

Hawaii Governor- Carroll vs Ige- Mason-Dixon
Ige 62%
Carroll 23%
Ige +39

Hawaii Governor- Tupola vs Hanabusa
Hanabusa 56%
Tupola 28%
Hanabusa +28

Hawaii Governor- Carroll vs Hanabusa- Mason-Dixon
Hanabusa 51%
Carroll 31%
Hanabusa +20

West Virginia Senate- Morrisey vs Manchin- Trafalgar Group
Manchin 50%
Morrisey 40%
Manchin +10
(Interesting thing, if Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, he is leading by 28 points, if he votes against him, he only would have a 2 point lead.)
https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/ ... l-july-18/

New York Senate- Farley vs Gillibrand- Quinnipiac
Gillibrand 57%
Farley 30%
Gillibrand +27

New York Governor- Democratic Primary
Cuomo 59%
Nixon 23%
Cuomo +36

New York Governor- Molinaro vs Cuomo
Cuomo 57%
Molinaro 31%
Cuomo +26

[Freezic Vast]

I'd take that WV poll on if he votes for Trump's SCOTUS pick or not with a grain of salt. I see either way he could win by about 5+ or so.

[Outer Sparta]

Watch WV if President Trump endorses Morrisey, NJ could be a surprise, and MO maybe, but other than that, with the current polls I would agree with that statement.

I think Manchin is in a reasonably good position regardless, but especially with Blankenship deciding to run 3rd Party, don't think Trump cheerleading for Morrisey will be enough to swing it.

Morrissey isn't the strongest candidate, and Manchin certainly has to walk the walk between the Democratic party and a deep-red West Virginia.

[San Lumen]

It was fun while it lasted. The Referendum is off the ballot. Three Californias will not go down in flames. According to the San Francisco Chronicle The State Supreme Court ruled "there were significant questions regarding the proposition’s validity” and the “potential harm” of allowing a public vote before those questions are resolved “outweighs the potential harm in delaying the proposition to a future election.” Im sad it won't be on the ballot.I would have loved to have seen the election coverage when in went down in flames.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 085880.php

The same arguments are being used though to challenge the Redistricting Amendment in Michigan and makes me worry it will be taken off the the ballot too.

[Shrillland]

It was fun while it lasted. The Referendum is off the ballot. Three Californias will not go down in flames. According to the San Francisco Chronicle The State Supreme Court ruled "there were significant questions regarding the proposition’s validity” and the “potential harm” of allowing a public vote before those questions are resolved “outweighs the potential harm in delaying the proposition to a future election.” Im sad it won't be on the ballot.I would have loved to have seen the election coverage when in went down in flames.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 085880.php

The same arguments are being used though to challenge the Redistricting Amendment in Michigan and makes me worry it will be taken off the the ballot too.

For now. They said that it might get put up in 2020 if the court decides in favour of it. As for the Redistricting Amendment in Michigan...I'm not convinced that will be removed. It doesn't involve breaking Michigan up between the LP and the UP, for example.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

Poll Update:
Georgia Governor- GOP Runoff- Fox 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy
Kemp 55%
Cagle 37%
Kemp +18

Wisconsin Governor- Dem Primary- Marquette
Evers 31%
Vinehout 6%
Mitchell 6%
Flynn 5%
Soglin 4%
McCabe 3%
Roys 3%

Wisconsin Senate- GOP Primary- Marquette
Vukmir 34%
Nicholson 32%
Vukmir +2

Generic Congressional Vote- Economist/YouGov
Dem 45%
GOP 37%
Dem +8

Generic Congressional Vote- Rasmussen
Dem 46%
GOP 41%
Dem +5

Generic Congressional Vote- Reuters/Ipsos
Dem 44%
GOP 35%
Dem +9

[Mystic Warriors]

Poll Update:
Georgia Governor- GOP Runoff- Fox 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy
Kemp 55%
Cagle 37%
Kemp +18

Wisconsin Governor- Dem Primary- Marquette
Evers 31%
Vinehout 6%
Mitchell 6%
Flynn 5%
Soglin 4%
McCabe 3%
Roys 3%

Wisconsin Senate- GOP Primary- Marquette
Vukmir 34%
Nicholson 32%
Vukmir +2

Generic Congressional Vote- Economist/YouGov
Dem 45%
GOP 37%
Dem +8

Generic Congressional Vote- Rasmussen
Dem 46%
GOP 41%
Dem +5

Generic Congressional Vote- Reuters/Ipsos
Dem 44%
GOP 35%
Dem +9

Rasmussen has an extreme right wing bent and is very biased. In some cases off by up to 4 points.

[Mystic Warriors]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

The dems NEED the house. With that Senate we are all on trouble.

[Valrifell]

I think it'll be 52-48, with AZ, NV flipping for the Dems, and FL, ND and IN flipping for the GOP.

The dems NEED the house. With that Senate we are all on trouble.

It's weird that the House is closer to a tossup but gets no love in favor of the heavily Republican-favored Senate elections.

[Mystic Warriors]

The dems NEED the house. With that Senate we are all on trouble.

It's weird that the House is closer to a tossup but gets no love in favor of the heavily Republican-favored Senate elections.

The senate has more power. But the House is still safe blue for now.

[Telconi]

It was fun while it lasted. The Referendum is off the ballot. Three Californias will not go down in flames. According to the San Francisco Chronicle The State Supreme Court ruled "there were significant questions regarding the proposition’s validity” and the “potential harm” of allowing a public vote before those questions are resolved “outweighs the potential harm in delaying the proposition to a future election.” Im sad it won't be on the ballot.I would have loved to have seen the election coverage when in went down in flames.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 085880.php

The same arguments are being used though to challenge the Redistricting Amendment in Michigan and makes me worry it will be taken off the the ballot too.

Further proof that Democrats don't believe in free and fair elections.