President Trump and the Future of Europe

[Novus America]

If Europe is American puppet how come so many in Europe opppsed us over Iraq? The US works with Europe because we often but not always have a lot of common interests.

Plus Russia does what Russia wants. But what Russia wants is not what most of Europe wants. Anyways it is not happening. Trump is losing badly.

Nobody opposed you in the Iraq war. Europe has no power to prevent the US gov to make stupid decisions, but the US gov has indeed on us. And if you do not want to US be more unpopular than you will have to choose Trump. Hillary said she wants a no-fly zone over Syria and it is crazy.

Dude really? That is just false about Iraq. Germany and France opposed us. Among others.
The US and Europe often disagree.

I do not like Hillary, (nor Trump) the no fly zone concept is stupid, but she will not actually try to do it.
And I do not choose the president. Hillary is going to win. I am not voting for her but she will win.

[Rio Cana]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

[Novus America]

Your last thing makes no sense. We are about to crush ISIS in its own capital. But that will not fix the problems in the Middle East. Libya is much better off than Syria by any measure, and Assad wining means more refugees but eh, we cannot stop Assad, he will still be around and so will your refugees.

Come on, you also do not believe in this.

Objectively Libya has a higher GDP per capita, higher HDI, and fewer people dying. It is a mess sure, but LESS of a mess than Syria is.

[Novus America]

Anyways when has the US forced anyone outside the US to accept gay marriage? Nowhere of course.

I have a source but it is not on english. NGOs who are in favour of gay marriages receive funding from the US embassy. Of course if you oppose the corrupt NGOs your government will be declared as authoritarian.

That is not forcing you to do anything. Advocating a viewpoint is not forcing you. I am advocating a viewpoint on here, and so are you. We are not forcing tecother to do anything.

[Daburuetchi]

Comparing Putin with Mussolini is intelectual dishonesty. Putin is not persecuting Russia and its ethnic minorities like Mussolini did.

Because Putin would never portray himself as the leader of Third Rome

It is not racist. I meant that if I could change in my country to a different system other than "representative democracy", I would do it as only corrupt politicians can advance in such system.

We have opinion polls that prove Arabs dont share your opinion. http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/07/10/mos ... ical-life/

And yes, Arabs have not the necesarly political culture to maintain at least a peacefull transition to a government. Look at Libya. There is a civil government between an old and self-declared government. The same sectarianism will be with Syria if Assad is gone.

ahhh the Hobbesian false dichotomy

It never actually broke. It was defeated in war.

HEIL DIR IM SIGERKRANTZ

[Novus America]

^Most likely Assad will not be going anywhere. Syria is being partitioned into two with this new offensive in Raqqa. Pro-Russian Assad controlling Western Syria and Pro-US Kurds/Free Syrians controlling Northern/Eastern Syria.

Yes. This is very true. So Europe is stuck with the Refugees who are fleeing Assad. It is going to happen yes. Nothing we can do to stop it.

[Jerzylvania]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

Perfect. Trump is familiar with Klansmen.

[Yorkers]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

Or how about we don't overthrow the next Ba'athist dictator who comes to power, and all will be fine.

[The Lone Alliance]

That is not true. It is America that organised the Arab Spring that destroyed Gadaffi and to which thanks millions of Africans are coming to Europe via Mediterranean.

Of course those A-rabs could never rise up against a kleptocratic regime by themselves

Actually the Arab Spring's method of Organization online was partly a CIA program.
They could have rose up against the kleptocratic regime but they'd have been promptly divided and gunned down.... like all previous times.

This meme again. Countries have things called hidden agendas. US imperialism is just a casus beli. You're kidding yourself if you think Russia dosent have imperialist ambitions

Russia's Imperialist ambitions is maintaining hold on it's dwindling sphere of influence, it doesn't have the capability to do much more.

Poor, poor Poland. Left to the Russians by Donald Trump.

Poland actually meets their 2% required so why would he abandon them?

[Novus America]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

Or how about we don't overthrow the next Ba'athist dictator who comes to power, and all will be fine.

Umm Qaddafi was not a Baathist, and Baathism was a major cause of the Arab Spring. And the civil war started with him in power. And mostly ended with him gone. I do not support going out of our way to get rid of Baathists. But they offer only corruption and poverty (again Qaddafi was an Islamist of his own weird sort, not a Baathist).

[Daburuetchi]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

Or how about we don't overthrow the next Ba'athist dictator who comes to power, and all will be fine.

[The Great Devourer of All]

In the worst-case scenario, the U.S. leaves NATO, causing the alliance to become a shell of its former self and possibly exposing the Baltic states to Russian aggression. This aggression would most likely not come in the form of a direct military assault, as NATO would still have about four hundred nuclear warheads at its disposal even without the U.S. However, political manipulation and military bullying might be commonplace. The only upside to this is that Trump's anti-China and pro-Russia rhetoric could drive a wedge between Putin and his Chinese allies, meaning China may start buying weapons and other needed commodities from European countries, both in the EU and outside of it. Switzerland may benefit the most from this, considering its large arms manufacturing industry.

In the best-case scenario, Congress blocks any actions on Trump's behalf intended to bring the U.S. closer to Russia, and we get four years of absolutely no tactical changes in Europe before the voters spit out Trump and wash their mouth with a candidate more fit for the presidency. Actually, I take that back- in the best-case scenario, Clinton beats Trump and stops this mess from happening in the first place.

[Rio Cana]

^Most likely Assad will not be going anywhere. Syria is being partitioned into two with this new offensive in Raqqa. Pro-Russian Assad controlling Western Syria and Pro-US Kurds/Free Syrians controlling Northern/Eastern Syria.

Yes. This is very true. So Europe is stuck with the Refugees who are fleeing Assad. It is going to happen yes. Nothing we can do to stop it.

Not really. If Eastern Syria run by the free Syrians is set-up has an independent nation then the Syrians could go back home.

[Rio Cana]

Of course those A-rabs could never rise up against a kleptocratic regime by themselves

Actually the Arab Spring's method of Organization online was partly a CIA program.
They could have rose up against the kleptocratic regime but they'd have been promptly divided and gunned down.... like all previous times.

This meme again. Countries have things called hidden agendas. US imperialism is just a casus beli. You're kidding yourself if you think Russia dosent have imperialist ambitions

Russia's Imperialist ambitions is maintaining hold on it's dwindling sphere of influence, it doesn't have the capability to do much more.

Poor, poor Poland. Left to the Russians by Donald Trump.

Poland actually meets their 2% required so why would he abandon them?

I do not think you have to worry about Poland. The Poles, after twice dissappearing from world maps, have learned not to rely too much on anyone but themselves.

[The Lone Alliance]

I do not think you have to worry about Poland. The Poles, after twice dissappearing from world maps, have learned not to rely too much on anyone but themselves.

I don't think so either, Poland is one of the few nations in Europe who I actually do believe would fight against Russian aggression... Military wise I they might be one of the strongest military powers in central Europe now.

They have more Tanks than Germany does now.

[Novus America]

Because Putin would never portray himself as the leader of Third Rome

(Image)

This is misleading. "Third Rome" has been always considered to be Russia for about centuries as it is seen as a successor of the Byzantine Empire. So, being a leader of Third Rome is not something like Mussolini like. He is leader of Russia (a.k.a. Third Rome) because he is the legitime elected president.

We have opinion polls that prove Arabs dont share your opinion. http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/07/10/mos ... ical-life/

They wish but they are not capable to have a democracy. Also, the libyan rebels also wanted democracy but with time they demonstrated they do not know the rules of democracy. But as said already the western democracy is a very corrupt system. Firstly it is misleading calling it democracy since the people are not ruling but being ruled by politicians who do not follow the wished of the people they were elected. I would rather call it plutocracy instead.

ahhh the Hobbesian false dichotomy

And since Libyans wanted democracy why they cannot manage it?

Objectively Libya has a higher GDP per capita, higher HDI, and fewer people dying. It is a mess sure, but LESS of a mess than Syria is.

Libya has multiple government that is fighting eacht other. Syria on other hand has 60% of terriotry under Assad rule that is normal so there is only the matter of time when it fells bellow Syria (I am also certain it already happened)

That is not forcing you to do anything. Advocating a viewpoint is not forcing you. I am advocating a viewpoint on here, and so are you. We are not forcing tecother to do anything.

Ummm... no that is bulling. The fact that thoose US paid NGOs would be declared as martyrs by the western press would go so far that your government would be sanctioned.

Libya has multiple governments but little actual combat, unlike Syria. And one government controlling most of the territory. Syria also has multiple governments, one controlling most of the POPULATION (not the actually territory). More people are dying in Syria, and Syria is doing worse on every index, and by every measure, including HDI and GDP. Libya has fewer deaths, higher HDI, higher GDP per capita. Those are facts. And no, it has not fallen below Syria, and if you are sure it has happened, source it. On what index is Syria doing better?

Now you are moving the goal posts. And I am not sure what you are trying to say. They US has not sanctioned Russia over blocking NGOs either. The US is not forcing anybody to do anything. And how much money do you think we have? A little money to a NGO makes little difference.

Yes, the US sends some money to some groups you may disagree with. That is advocacy, and not working you do anything.
You can disagree with whatever viewpoint anyone is advocating.

[Greed and Death]

Under Trump the EU shall be an unincorporated Territory of the US.

Maybe you could just let it be a state.

Hell no we cant have 450 million people tilting the balance of the lower house.

[Seraven]

Foreign policy for the most part is one of the areas in which Trump isn’t truly terrible in, in fact I am surprised why there isn’t more support on part of Europeans since Europe usually gets the brunt of American military adventurism. But I think I know why: other countries have been selfishly taking advantage of American military dominance by basically having their military subsidized, meanwhile appreciating fuck-all for what it is worth. Only five of 28 countries in NATO meet the defense spending goal. Yet Europeans are unappreciative of this and instead prefer to sling insults at Americans while mooching off what basically amounts of a subsidized defense, perhaps so they can build their barely sustainable welfare states. Although I am voting for Gary Johnson, I would at least appreciate it if Trump took us down the path of “isolationism” and abandoned the crumbling infrastructure known as the “West.” I don’t care what Russia does, he’s your neighbor not ours (Alaska disregarding). All I want is an end to the warmongering that Bush, Obama, and perhaps Clinton will continue while destroying possibilities for markets and radicalizing Islamic terrorism everywhere. Both Europe and America would benefit, I think, in the long run.

Quite true. For example, Germany's military is increasingly underfunded. And Turkey is probably the nation with the highest funding, though United Kingdom and France still has the role. I think the Europeans have been in the "comfort zone of the America's protectionist NATO policy" for far too long, and although the funds from the military is diverted to say, healthcare or government affairs and it is also a good thing, the military not funded and being left with fewer budget is not a good thing either.

Also, Trump's victory can be recognized as a winning factor for the right-wing parties in Europe. I think we all agree that Trump is not a fan of immigrants, especially the illegal ones. And Muslims. And we all know that Alternative for Deutschlands (AfD) and Le Pen both in Germany and France are gaining supports with each days, and both of them are quite right-wing and nationalists, in a way. Trump winning perhaps will contributing to the switch of politics in Europe from left-wing to right-wing.

Even Poland had been affected.

[Arkolon]

The word "bromance" here is far too strong. Putin has no interest in caring any more about Trump's character as he does Le Pen's, Farage's or Wilders'. Trump can only be a 'useful idiot', to quote the FT, whose politics will play right into the hands of Russia's interests. It's no secret that Russia has obvious interest in supporting isolationists across Europe, as a disunited Europe would be favourable ground for Russian action. Of course, to "invade half of Europe" is a total exaggeration, and I never even suggested something of that order. Rather, Russia would be very capable of "pulling a Ukraine", if you will, in the Baltics - and when Trump refuses to budge, Putin could secure the Russian rebels' victory with some more formal assistance. It would be a test for Trump that he would not even think of responding to, and it would signal the end of NATO as a meaningful alliance.

Trump is not going to win. But yes, over reliance on freeloading off the US puts NATO and Europe at risk.

The EU has 9 times the GDP and 3 times the population of Russia. Europe can easily build a defense Russia cannot match. Sure the US should be there as a back up, to make things go easier and faster, but Europe needs to be able to solve its own problems. It is good to have a friend who can help you if you need help. But you should not rely on that friend to do something you can and should do yourself.

This post is makes so many assumptions it doesn't make any worthwhile point.

The glaring assumption is that the EU can operate in the capacity of a united country. The EU is a political and economic union that has no mandate for common defence forces, as that is already covered by NATO and so wouldn't be even brought up by European politicians. And that's not even mentioning how unrealistic it would be to combine the military strengths of all 27 member states under a single chain of command. It would be a political nightmare as no majority of European politicians in elected office today would want to embark on such extreme eurofederalism. It would also cost a lot more than 1% of GDP, which is the entire EU budget. A more realistic, but extremely far-fetched scenario would be that a common defence force would combine some of the military forces of the member states, but even then it would be too small to take on most surrounding regional powers. So treating the EU as a whole military bloc is just a non-starter.

The second assumption is that a defence force can be built so quickly: it would take years to train and recruit any worthwhile military, and this is still assuming linear, conventional warfare. This is not a tactic of the 21st century. If Putin wanted to intervene in Europe, it would be through non-linear warfare where he will blur his involvement - I'm suggesting he 'pulls a Ukraine', not a Blitzkrieg of the European continent. 'Pulling a Ukraine' in the Baltics would seriously destabilise the region and would not be able to be alleviated by the presence of any European defence force unless it was majorly or totally concentrated in the region - which would be logistically difficult and politically impossible.

It doesn't matter how big the EU is compared to Russia, Russia is still a single country and the EU is not. We can't snap our fingers to create a European army with large numbers of trained troops with modern weaponry and EU army ranks, mostly since it already comes under NATO. If Trump were to just disband NATO in his first day in office, this still wouldn't give the time for this military and political investment to take place, and it is more likely that NATO is rendered useless when Trump refuses to defend a border NATO state in the case of an attack. And even if the EU did manage to do everything, which is a total fantasy, any EU army would be totally useless against unconventional, non-linear warfare provoked by Russia.

This post doesn't show strategical expertise as much as it shows a seriously flawed understanding of the European Union.

[Jochizyd Republic]

Yep. mm-hmm. Trump Sure is Isolationist. Which is why he wants to support "our greatest ally" Israel, get involved in Ira and Syria and fight a war for Saudi Arabia. gg.

[The Conez Imperium]

Libya is too clan based. Time to divide into three new nations.

Or how about we don't overthrow the next Ba'athist dictator who comes to power, and all will be fine.

I know, we'll make another pact to divide the middle-east. 2nd times the charm boys.

[Herargon]

We'll manage. Frankly we've got enough problems at home, like Paul bloody Magnette, but we'll manage.

And I agree. Europe has seen bigger shit. It's just that this current US election has been a shitshow where everyone throws insults to each other, and that I hope that no bad candidate will be chose- oh, hahaha, there is no candidate close to the European spectrum

I can only hope that it will turn out with a breath of hope.

[Even Less of Mackonia]

These fairly meaningless phrases like 'closed world politics'.

Trump could very well take one look at the papers and one hour with the advisers and immediately go with the general trend of American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War ignoring his election promises. Its a possibility he's just been bollocksing all along, and U.S foreign policy has remained fairly consistent between administrations.

The second possibility that Trump actually sticks to some of his politics would be a dramatic maturing and renewal of international relations along sensible, realpolitik-based lines rather than childish ideological whinges. I look forward to an end to the beyond pointless quest to dominate the Eurasian interior, an end to democracy-promotion abroad, a loss in power of 'international institutions' and the upswing for Eurosceptics in Europe mentioned in the OP.

Stocks will wobble slightly but will recover to probably above their usual rate by January.

Frankly anyone of any political allegiance in Britain ought to be backing Trump, now he's simply the most politically advantageous choice for Britain.

[The Conez Imperium]

The second possibility that Trump actually sticks to some of his politics would be a dramatic maturing and renewal of international relations along sensible, realpolitik-based lines rather than childish ideological whinges. I look forward to an end to the beyond pointless quest to dominate the Eurasian interior, an end to democracy-promotion abroad, a loss in power of 'international institutions' and the upswing for Eurosceptics in Europe mentioned in the OP.

Pragmatism and Trump do not go hand in hand. Trump is like Kaiser Wilhelm II. A child who inherited Bismarck's legacy and Prussian institutions.

[Even Less of Mackonia]

The second possibility that Trump actually sticks to some of his politics would be a dramatic maturing and renewal of international relations along sensible, realpolitik-based lines rather than childish ideological whinges. I look forward to an end to the beyond pointless quest to dominate the Eurasian interior, an end to democracy-promotion abroad, a loss in power of 'international institutions' and the upswing for Eurosceptics in Europe mentioned in the OP.

Pragmatism and Trump do not go hand in hand. Trump is like Kaiser Wilhelm II. A child who inherited Bismarck's legacy and Prussian institutions.

Given that claim was predicated on the view Trump actually goes along with his own foreign policy notions, as far as they can be called notions, I don't really see how.