Turkey Votes 2015(Parliamentary elections)

[Anollasia]

What do you mean by ballin'?

he has that swagger

(its a good thing)

He's too classy for ''swagger''.

[Imperial Valaran]

. If there was immigrants killing soldiers in Britain, Britain would deport them on the spot, while we turks have to put up with that shit because we are ebil muslims and need to respect our miniorities. It's so double standard. Any Turk that votes HDP is a traitor.

This isn't what we would do.

We'd lock murders up, and attempt to solve tensions peacefully (in the long run).

[Vistulange]

One, Erdoğan is not the head of the AKP. He is the president, an officially non-partisan position. While he has been breaching his own oath since the election business began, he still cannot negotiate for the AKP. Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Prime Minister and leader of the AKP, is nowhere near a shrewd politician as Erdoğan is. He was 'elected' in the first place because he was the only person who Erdoğan felt who was still loyal and that he could direct as he saw fit. Other notable names in the AKP, such as Bülent Arınç, Mehmet Şimşek or Ali Babacan could and probably would have went their own way, with Erdoğan unable to rein them in.

Two, the CHP is quite new, this time. They have put their stupid nationalism to the side for most part and would be willing to work with the HDP.

Three...how many years ago? So many has happened in just two years. 2013 is generally regarded as the year that the AKP went batshit crazy with power.

'Officially'. I am still very much of the opinion that Erdogan holds the reins of power, his very own Medvedev-Putin arrangement. This won't stop him from arrnaging a deal in practice.


That is actually great to hear

Has that gotten through to the voters though, do you think?

Oh I realise that a lot has happened. But I watched with baited breath at the Gezi protests, and then the Gulenists & corruption scandals, and then the Presidential Elections (and the mining tragedies sometime before). Each time it was very much 'they can't possibly do it after all this has happened, how can AKP still keep all its support, given all they've done'. And each time they managed it. Their core vote is just that resilient, and it doesn't help all those media outlets have been muzzled. Opinion in Turkey seems more polarised than it was, but support for the AKP has only chipped away at the edges; the block is still there

And it was 2012-2013. *Feels an urge to revisit*

Erdoğan does hold the political power, and yes, it is his own Putin-Medvedev arrangement. In fact, if you just compare Turkey and Russia, you will see an extraordinary amount of semblance. There is one problem, however, that I believe lies in history.

The Russian people have had a gargantuan struggle against the West, with the Second World War. Yes, I know that they were allied with the United States, the United Kingdom and the others, but the West also includes Germany, their main aggressor. Putin is able to effectively turn the nationalist sentiment into support.

Now, we too have had a massive struggle against the West, in the form of our War of Independence led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The primary difference here is that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's war resulted in a strictly secular, Western-oriented Turkey, governed as a republic, though a single-party one until 1946. The AKP's stance against this founder and government system is toxic, which is why the AKP and Erdoğan cannot turn to the War of Independence for political support - indeed, since they came to power, Atatürk has been attacked over and over again, with his image being ground into the ground countless times. Secularism as a concept has been attacked a countless amount of times, as well.

Now, we have these two examples, yes? The Russians are willing to bear economic hardship to stand against the West, or so I perceive. The Turkish people would not; because one, there is no real enemy to point fingers at and two, they care more about their own pockets than any rhetoric. And Turkey's economy is going down fast right now. The basic foodstuffs - potatoes, tomatoes, etc - are quite expensive to buy than they were 13 years ago. A family's basic expense, just for food, is roughly 1650 liras - if we are taking into account advice given by Erdoğan to have three children - for a five persona family. The minimum wage is just short of 1000 liras without the tax.

That should give you an idea of how twisted our economy is.

[Anollasia]

'Officially'. I am still very much of the opinion that Erdogan holds the reins of power, his very own Medvedev-Putin arrangement. This won't stop him from arrnaging a deal in practice.


That is actually great to hear

Has that gotten through to the voters though, do you think?

Oh I realise that a lot has happened. But I watched with baited breath at the Gezi protests, and then the Gulenists & corruption scandals, and then the Presidential Elections (and the mining tragedies sometime before). Each time it was very much 'they can't possibly do it after all this has happened, how can AKP still keep all its support, given all they've done'. And each time they managed it. Their core vote is just that resilient, and it doesn't help all those media outlets have been muzzled. Opinion in Turkey seems more polarised than it was, but support for the AKP has only chipped away at the edges; the block is still there

And it was 2012-2013. *Feels an urge to revisit*

Erdoğan does hold the political power, and yes, it is his own Putin-Medvedev arrangement. In fact, if you just compare Turkey and Russia, you will see an extraordinary amount of semblance. There is one problem, however, that I believe lies in history.

The Russian people have had a gargantuan struggle against the West, with the Second World War. Yes, I know that they were allied with the United States, the United Kingdom and the others, but the West also includes Germany, their main aggressor. Putin is able to effectively turn the nationalist sentiment into support.

Now, we too have had a massive struggle against the West, in the form of our War of Independence led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The primary difference here is that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's war resulted in a strictly secular, Western-oriented Turkey, governed as a republic, though a single-party one until 1946. The AKP's stance against this founder and government system is toxic, which is why the AKP and Erdoğan cannot turn to the War of Independence for political support - indeed, since they came to power, Atatürk has been attacked over and over again, with his image being ground into the ground countless times. Secularism as a concept has been attacked a countless amount of times, as well.

Now, we have these two examples, yes? The Russians are willing to bear economic hardship to stand against the West, or so I perceive. The Turkish people would not; because one, there is no real enemy to point fingers at and two, they care more about their own pockets than any rhetoric. And Turkey's economy is going down fast right now. The basic foodstuffs - potatoes, tomatoes, etc - are quite expensive to buy than they were 13 years ago. A family's basic expense, just for food, is roughly 1650 liras - if we are taking into account advice given by Erdoğan to have three children - for a five persona family. The minimum wage is just short of 1000 liras without the tax.

That should give you an idea of how twisted our economy is.

Oh yeah, I remember when Erdogan called Atatürk a drunkard. I bet there were times when he had too many drinks, but why bother mentioning it? The duty of a politician isn't make fun of things like that.

Erdogan talks too much.

[Vistulange]

Erdoğan does hold the political power, and yes, it is his own Putin-Medvedev arrangement. In fact, if you just compare Turkey and Russia, you will see an extraordinary amount of semblance. There is one problem, however, that I believe lies in history.

The Russian people have had a gargantuan struggle against the West, with the Second World War. Yes, I know that they were allied with the United States, the United Kingdom and the others, but the West also includes Germany, their main aggressor. Putin is able to effectively turn the nationalist sentiment into support.

Now, we too have had a massive struggle against the West, in the form of our War of Independence led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The primary difference here is that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's war resulted in a strictly secular, Western-oriented Turkey, governed as a republic, though a single-party one until 1946. The AKP's stance against this founder and government system is toxic, which is why the AKP and Erdoğan cannot turn to the War of Independence for political support - indeed, since they came to power, Atatürk has been attacked over and over again, with his image being ground into the ground countless times. Secularism as a concept has been attacked a countless amount of times, as well.

Now, we have these two examples, yes? The Russians are willing to bear economic hardship to stand against the West, or so I perceive. The Turkish people would not; because one, there is no real enemy to point fingers at and two, they care more about their own pockets than any rhetoric. And Turkey's economy is going down fast right now. The basic foodstuffs - potatoes, tomatoes, etc - are quite expensive to buy than they were 13 years ago. A family's basic expense, just for food, is roughly 1650 liras - if we are taking into account advice given by Erdoğan to have three children - for a five persona family. The minimum wage is just short of 1000 liras without the tax.

That should give you an idea of how twisted our economy is.

Oh yeah, I remember when Erdogan called Atatürk a drunkard. I bet there were times when he had too many drinks, but why bother mentioning it? The duty of a politician isn't make fun of things like that.

Erdogan talks too much.

He does. I have a feeling he knows that his end is very, very close. If the AKP loses majority, he knows that his time will also be over.

I'm not sure if our president can be impeached, but if he can be and he is...well, he's looking at an aggravated life sentence, however you look at it. Violating the Constitution countless times should be enough, and I'm sure some of this more questionable actions can count as treason, or at least being complicit in treason.

[Imperial Valaran]

'Officially'. I am still very much of the opinion that Erdogan holds the reins of power, his very own Medvedev-Putin arrangement. This won't stop him from arrnaging a deal in practice.


That is actually great to hear

Has that gotten through to the voters though, do you think?

Oh I realise that a lot has happened. But I watched with baited breath at the Gezi protests, and then the Gulenists & corruption scandals, and then the Presidential Elections (and the mining tragedies sometime before). Each time it was very much 'they can't possibly do it after all this has happened, how can AKP still keep all its support, given all they've done'. And each time they managed it. Their core vote is just that resilient, and it doesn't help all those media outlets have been muzzled. Opinion in Turkey seems more polarised than it was, but support for the AKP has only chipped away at the edges; the block is still there

And it was 2012-2013. *Feels an urge to revisit*

Erdoğan does hold the political power, and yes, it is his own Putin-Medvedev arrangement. In fact, if you just compare Turkey and Russia, you will see an extraordinary amount of semblance. There is one problem, however, that I believe lies in history.

The Russian people have had a gargantuan struggle against the West, with the Second World War. Yes, I know that they were allied with the United States, the United Kingdom and the others, but the West also includes Germany, their main aggressor. Putin is able to effectively turn the nationalist sentiment into support.

Now, we too have had a massive struggle against the West, in the form of our War of Independence led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The primary difference here is that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's war resulted in a strictly secular, Western-oriented Turkey, governed as a republic, though a single-party one until 1946. The AKP's stance against this founder and government system is toxic, which is why the AKP and Erdoğan cannot turn to the War of Independence for political support - indeed, since they came to power, Atatürk has been attacked over and over again, with his image being ground into the ground countless times. Secularism as a concept has been attacked a countless amount of times, as well.

Now, we have these two examples, yes? The Russians are willing to bear economic hardship to stand against the West, or so I perceive. The Turkish people would not; because one, there is no real enemy to point fingers at and two, they care more about their own pockets than any rhetoric. And Turkey's economy is going down fast right now. The basic foodstuffs - potatoes, tomatoes, etc - are quite expensive to buy than they were 13 years ago. A family's basic expense, just for food, is roughly 1650 liras - if we are taking into account advice given by Erdoğan to have three children - for a five persona family. The minimum wage is just short of 1000 liras without the tax.

That should give you an idea of how twisted our economy is.

You see, I'd argue Erdogan can tap into that nationalistic 'hard done by', sentiment too. Maybe not as effectively as Putin, but effectively enough.

There are the gripes about what Atatürk did, but it also goes back into the dismembering of the Ottoman state at Sevres, and such. Atatürk is partially legendary to his restoration of Turkish pride and fortunes (amongst many other things), but its not to say this mentality doesn't remain. Erdogan, as I'm sure you think too, seeks to recast himself as an islamic Atatürk where he can. But since he can't turn to the war of independence, he turns on Gulenists, the military (this cause was very popular), the judiciary, the press, evil westerners, etc. There are plenty of scapegoats and it has been effective. And in the modern context it makes sense. Europe so unwilling to grant memberships, two infernos south, a lingering Kurdish 'terrorist' movement, easy blame in America, and so on. He can direct this sense of injustice and anger fairly well.

Oh I know a reasonable amount of the broader economic issues (probably one area I am up to date on), though less so on the day to day stuff. I would agree that the Turkish mindset is not like the Russian on this (though I never said it was). But for this specific election, Erdogan and the AKP's anger direction and so on might trump economic malaise for now. Not in the long run, but right now, yeah.

[Imperial Valaran]

He does. I have a feeling he knows that his end is very, very close. If the AKP loses majority, he knows that his time will also be over.

I'm not sure if our president can be impeached, but if he can be and he is...well, he's looking at an aggravated life sentence, however you look at it. Violating the Constitution countless times should be enough, and I'm sure some of this more questionable actions can count as treason, or at least being complicit in treason.

I doubt it would ever get that far though, almost certainly not a criminal case, unless something dramatic was to happen.

he is certainly feeling the pressure though

[Vistulange]

Erdoğan does hold the political power, and yes, it is his own Putin-Medvedev arrangement. In fact, if you just compare Turkey and Russia, you will see an extraordinary amount of semblance. There is one problem, however, that I believe lies in history.

The Russian people have had a gargantuan struggle against the West, with the Second World War. Yes, I know that they were allied with the United States, the United Kingdom and the others, but the West also includes Germany, their main aggressor. Putin is able to effectively turn the nationalist sentiment into support.

Now, we too have had a massive struggle against the West, in the form of our War of Independence led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The primary difference here is that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's war resulted in a strictly secular, Western-oriented Turkey, governed as a republic, though a single-party one until 1946. The AKP's stance against this founder and government system is toxic, which is why the AKP and Erdoğan cannot turn to the War of Independence for political support - indeed, since they came to power, Atatürk has been attacked over and over again, with his image being ground into the ground countless times. Secularism as a concept has been attacked a countless amount of times, as well.

Now, we have these two examples, yes? The Russians are willing to bear economic hardship to stand against the West, or so I perceive. The Turkish people would not; because one, there is no real enemy to point fingers at and two, they care more about their own pockets than any rhetoric. And Turkey's economy is going down fast right now. The basic foodstuffs - potatoes, tomatoes, etc - are quite expensive to buy than they were 13 years ago. A family's basic expense, just for food, is roughly 1650 liras - if we are taking into account advice given by Erdoğan to have three children - for a five persona family. The minimum wage is just short of 1000 liras without the tax.

That should give you an idea of how twisted our economy is.

You see, I'd argue Erdogan can tap into that nationalistic 'hard done by', sentiment too. Maybe not as effectively as Putin, but effectively enough.

There are the gripes about what Atatürk did, but it also goes back into the dismembering of the Ottoman state at Sevres, and such. Atatürk is partially legendary to his restoration of Turkish pride and fortunes (amongst many other things), but its not to say this mentality doesn't remain. Erdogan, as I'm sure you think too, seeks to recast himself as an islamic Atatürk where he can. But since he can't turn to the war of independence, he turns on Gulenists, the military (this cause was very popular), the judiciary, the press, evil westerners, etc. There are plenty of scapegoats and it has been effective. And in the modern context it makes sense. Europe so unwilling to grant memberships, two infernos south, a lingering Kurdish 'terrorist' movement, easy blame in America, and so on. He can direct this sense of injustice and anger fairly well.

Oh I know a reasonable amount of the broader economic issues (probably one area I am up to date on), though less so on the day to day stuff. I would agree that the Turkish mindset is not like the Russian on this (though I never said it was). But for this specific election, Erdogan and the AKP's anger direction and so on might trump economic malaise for now. Not in the long run, but right now, yeah.

As a Turk, I can give you this answer: Economic malaise has only been shrugged once in Turkey, in 1974.

When Bülent Ecevit successfully led the country against the embargo threat by the United States and landed on Cyprus, he got re-elected with a massive 41,1% of the vote in 1977, despite the incredibly hard-hitting embargo imposed by the United States.

Even then, he couldn't form a government. There was no 10% threshold back then.

[Imperial Valaran]

As a Turk, I can give you this answer: Economic malaise has only been shrugged once in Turkey, in 1974.

When Bülent Ecevit successfully led the country against the embargo threat by the United States and landed on Cyprus, he got re-elected with a massive 41,1% of the vote in 1977, despite the incredibly hard-hitting embargo imposed by the United States.

Even then, he couldn't form a government. There was no 10% threshold back then.

There we go. But I think Erdogan is still likely to pull it off this election.

Next one? Probably not. But in the short term, he has the cards.

Oh sorry, I mean Davutoğlu

[Vistulange]

As a Turk, I can give you this answer: Economic malaise has only been shrugged once in Turkey, in 1974.

When Bülent Ecevit successfully led the country against the embargo threat by the United States and landed on Cyprus, he got re-elected with a massive 41,1% of the vote in 1977, despite the incredibly hard-hitting embargo imposed by the United States.

Even then, he couldn't form a government. There was no 10% threshold back then.

There we go. But I think Erdogan is still likely to pull it off this election.

Next one? Probably not. But in the short term, he has the cards.

Oh sorry, I mean Davutoğlu

Davutoğlu being the AKP leader did make a difference, mind you. He does not have the charisma that his predecessor had, and it is having an effect.

As for Erdoğan's meetings...they're all...empty. People don't care about what he has to say, as they used to.

[Baltenstein]

Altough I'm very dissapointed about Syriza's performance in Greece so far, I'm hoping that HDP in Turkey and Podemos in Spain will do well in the elections.

Podemos will. HDP….probably not.

Here's hoping that they will at least pass the 10% threshold.

[Imperial Valaran]

There we go. But I think Erdogan is still likely to pull it off this election.

Next one? Probably not. But in the short term, he has the cards.

Oh sorry, I mean Davutoğlu

Davutoğlu being the AKP leader did make a difference, mind you. He does not have the charisma that his predecessor had, and it is having an effect.

As for Erdoğan's meetings...they're all...empty. People don't care about what he has to say, as they used to.

Sure, though he doesn't seem too bad (as a politician), even if he is no Erdogan.

I think enough still do. He's losing his grip, but its still there for now.

[Shrillland]

Altough I'm very dissapointed about Syriza's performance in Greece so far, I'm hoping that HDP in Turkey and Podemos in Spain will do well in the elections.

Podemos will. HDP….probably not.

HDP doesn't have to do too well, they just have to take enough support from the AKP in the east, which they've started doing among Turks and Kurds alike. If they can break the threshold, we'll be seeing a pretty interesting scenario in the GNA where nobody wants to stand by the AKP, but nobody will especially want to compromise to form a grand coalition, which is the only way that Davatoglu can be kept out.

[Vistulange]

Podemos will. HDP….probably not.

HDP doesn't have to do too well, they just have to take enough support from the AKP in the east, which they've started doing among Turks and Kurds alike. If they can break the threshold, we'll be seeing a pretty interesting scenario in the GNA where nobody wants to stand by the AKP, but nobody will especially want to compromise to form a grand coalition, which is the only way that Davatoglu can be kept out.

I wouldn't say that nobody wants to compromise. The CHP has stated that it would work with any party who is respectful to the rule of law, I believe, and the HDP isn't too far off. The MHP would work with anybody just for a ministry or two.

[Anollasia]

HDP doesn't have to do too well, they just have to take enough support from the AKP in the east, which they've started doing among Turks and Kurds alike. If they can break the threshold, we'll be seeing a pretty interesting scenario in the GNA where nobody wants to stand by the AKP, but nobody will especially want to compromise to form a grand coalition, which is the only way that Davatoglu can be kept out.

I wouldn't say that nobody wants to compromise. The CHP has stated that it would work with any party who is respectful to the rule of law, I believe, and the HDP isn't too far off. The MHP would work with anybody just for a ministry or two.

So, not AKP?

[Shrillland]

I wouldn't say that nobody wants to compromise. The CHP has stated that it would work with any party who is respectful to the rule of law, I believe, and the HDP isn't too far off. The MHP would work with anybody just for a ministry or two.

So, not AKP?

Exactly.

[Herskerstad]

Sadly, AKP landslide predicted.

How the fuck does the AKP survive at all, much less retain its popularity?

Because it represses the opposition, erects monuments and is thoroughly Islamic for an ever more Islamized population.

I am starting to fear that even an extreme economic downturn won't be enough to dethrone them.

[Imperial Valaran]

How the fuck does the AKP survive at all, much less retain its popularity?

Because it represses the opposition, erects monuments and is thoroughly Islamic for an ever more Islamized population.

I am starting to fear that even an extreme economic downturn won't be enough to dethrone them.

This is my fear as well, at least for this election.

[Vistulange]

Because it represses the opposition, erects monuments and is thoroughly Islamic for an ever more Islamized population.

I am starting to fear that even an extreme economic downturn won't be enough to dethrone them.

This is my fear as well, at least for this election.

I'm sorry, but the AKP getting 40% isn't near enough for them to retain their majority. With those numbers, they can't even get a majority of 276 seats. Plurality of votes, yes. Able to form government alone? No. First chance to form coalition? Yes.

Would any party work with them? Well, if they did, it'd be political suicide for them. For the CHP, MHP and the HDP.

[Conserative Morality]

I'm sorry, but the AKP getting 40% isn't near enough for them to retain their majority. With those numbers, they can't even get a majority of 276 seats. Plurality of votes, yes. Able to form government alone? No. First chance to form coalition? Yes.

Would any party work with them? Well, if they did, it'd be political suicide for them. For the CHP, MHP and the HDP.

That soothes my anxiety about the matter somewhat. I hope you're right. Politics makes strange bedfellows and all that.

[Steamtopia]

This is my fear as well, at least for this election.

I'm sorry, but the AKP getting 40% isn't near enough for them to retain their majority. With those numbers, they can't even get a majority of 276 seats. Plurality of votes, yes. Able to form government alone? No. First chance to form coalition? Yes.

Would any party work with them? Well, if they did, it'd be political suicide for them. For the CHP, MHP and the HDP.

Political suicide for the MHP?

[Vistulange]

I'm sorry, but the AKP getting 40% isn't near enough for them to retain their majority. With those numbers, they can't even get a majority of 276 seats. Plurality of votes, yes. Able to form government alone? No. First chance to form coalition? Yes.

Would any party work with them? Well, if they did, it'd be political suicide for them. For the CHP, MHP and the HDP.

Political suicide for the MHP?

Due to the amount of flak the MHP gave to the government concerning the peace process.

[MERIZoC]

Political suicide for the MHP?

Due to the amount of flak the MHP gave to the government concerning the peace process.

Yeah, but there's a 0% chance they'd consider working with a pro-Kurdish party.

[Vistulange]

Due to the amount of flak the MHP gave to the government concerning the peace process.

Yeah, but there's a 0% chance they'd consider working with a pro-Kurdish party.

...and where did I mention a HDP-MHP coalition?

[Shrillland]

Due to the amount of flak the MHP gave to the government concerning the peace process.

Yeah, but there's a 0% chance they'd consider working with a pro-Kurdish party.

Which is why the only coalition I can possible think of is a CHP-HDP coalition, and that's if the CHP is convinced that the HDP is distant enough from groups like the PKK to be considered under the rule of law.