Can the Midwest Ever Stage a Comeback?

[Lazy Bums]

"Comeback" suggests the Midwest was ever economically viable or important. Which it wasn't. The US' wealth is concentrated on its coasts for the very good reason that this allows access to international markets and generally is the site of the most fertile land.

OTOH, you don't have to be a multi-millionaire to live a middle-class lifestyle in the Midwest. It evens out.

[Serrland]

"Comeback" suggests the Midwest was ever economically viable or important. Which it wasn't. The US' wealth is concentrated on its coasts for the very good reason that this allows access to international markets and generally is the site of the most fertile land.

It was the industrial heart of the nation. And farming is much bigger in the Great Plains states than in the coastal states.

[Yootwopia]

It was the industrial heart of the nation. And farming is much bigger in the Great Plains states than in the coastal states.

I mean if you have some statistics which show that the Midwest was ever more important than the coast, I'd love to see them.

[Serrland]

It was the industrial heart of the nation. And farming is much bigger in the Great Plains states than in the coastal states.

I mean if you have some statistics which show that the Midwest was ever more important than the coast, I'd love to see them.

"Comeback" suggests the Midwest was ever economically viable or important. Which it wasn't.

I'm not saying that it was more important than the coasts, just that it was indeed viable (and many places still are) and important (again, as many places still are).

Take two top US agricultural crops for example:

U.S. Corn production by State forecasted for 2010-11 (in million bushels)
Major States:
Iowa - 2187.7 million bushels
Indiana - 918.4 million bushels
Nebraska - 1477.4 million bushels
Minnesota - 1260 million bushels
Illinois - 1971.6 million bushels

All of the top 5 are midwestern.

Soy Bean Production

IA - 468 million bushels
IL – 407 million bushels
MN - 287 million bushels
NE - 262 million bushels
IN - 222 million bushels

All of the top 5 are midwestern.

Agriculture exports

[Lakeland]

Comeback?

GSP growth rates per by state.

Poverty or the lack thereof in the US.

[Lakeland]

Also a reminder that any city on the lakes also has ocean access via the Saint Lawrence Seaway.

[Pope Joan]

Ohio has made a comeback; it's unemployment rate had been among the worst, and is now healthier than the national average.

The main difference is Honda, and its chain of local suppliers.

So the answer is "yes, with a little help".

[New Conglomerate]

Yeah. Fix our trade policy with China and the whole thing will start to rebuild.

[Free Soviets]

...so you're talking about the Great Lake states, and not the Midwest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwestern_United_States

we had a vote on NSG awhile back. the great plains didn't make the cut as being part of the midwest.

as makes sense, given that every single one of their towns that borders the actual midwest has a slogan claiming to in some way be 'the gateway to the west'.

[The Global Proletariat]

"Comeback" suggests the Midwest was ever economically viable or important. Which it wasn't. The US' wealth is concentrated on its coasts for the very good reason that this allows access to international markets and generally is the site of the most fertile land.

Actually, the Midwest grew because of its sea access. The Erie Canal allowed great bulk containers to sail to Buffalo, get offloaded into small barges for the Erie Canal/Hudson River, then get transported back onto large ocean going vessels in New York. The Saint Lawrence Seaway simplified this whole trade, and let freight ships on the Great Lakes go directly to the ocean. So, yes, places as far away as Duluth have access to the sea. One such city, Chicago, is already a major hub of international trade, and will likely remain so for a long time to come.
It's also important that the Midwest was more economically important than the East Coast for much of the 20th century. Large manufacturing firms paid very well, and required little education. It's why many in the Midwest did not go to college, and some cities (not all) made no investment in education. Witness that Detroit has no major universities that attract outsiders.

[The Global Proletariat]

Some of the major cities are trying different things like opening major casinos to generate revenue, but it seems like it will be hard for the cities to become what they were as the income gap between the wealthy and poor expands. Seems like the cities have become dumping grounds for people completely dependent on government services. I live in Cincinnati, and nobody goes downtown anymore. However, right across the river in northern kentucky they're doing pretty well because it's very clean and built up with bars, nice restaurants, clubs, and an awesome movie theater so they pull a lot of money from Cincinnati since that's where everyone goes for the weekends. Also Indiana has some huge casinos right on the state border pulling even more money out of Ohio. I find it strange how Cincinnati can be the home to many major companies like P&G and a lot of it is a total slum.

I can't speak for Cincinnati, but my experience with other company-dominated towns is that they eventually fail with the company. Take Rochester, a city I have some experience with. Rochester's main trouble with Kodak actually began around 2001, when they shrunk their local workforce by 60,000 to just 10,000. For a metro area of just 750,000 people, that was huge.
Fortunately, Rochester has staged a revival of sorts. Kodak was unusual in that it employed highly-skilled engineers, opticians, and computer programmers. Many left, but a few either went to the local universities or founded start-ups. Granted, we have other advantages (abundant cheap land near New York City, for instance), but Rochester is in better shape than either Buffalo or Syracuse, which did not have an educated workforce. I can't say if Rochester will boom or bust, but I can say there's a wealth of individual employers here that just didn't exist a decade ago.
To contrast, Buffalo failed because it relied heavily on a mix of General Motors and Bethlehem Steel. Buffalo was never as large as Detroit, but if you look at population loss and the amount of abandoned homes there, Buffalo makes Detroit look like Singapore.

[The Global Proletariat]

Comeback?

GSP growth rates per by state.

Poverty or the lack thereof in the US.
(Image)

It'd be useful for me to see poverty based on purchasing power. The map may look the same, but my understanding is that many have moved to the Sunbelt because they can buy more while spending less. My understanding is also that the Midwest has the greatest income equality of the United States, although that could be because everyone's job prospects have moved in the same direction.

[The Global Proletariat]

Can the Midwest of the United States ever stage an economic revival, or will it continue to stagnate while the rest of the nation goes forward? By Midwest, I typically mean the states that border the Great Lakes (note this isn't the same as the Rust Belt in general). While many include Great Plains states, such as Iowa and Nebraska, I hesitate to include them as they have a far different economic dynamic and social history than the rest of the region.

If you only meant the Great Lakes States rather than the Midwest, you should have said as much in the title.

The Great Plains States are doing fine, and can be expected to continue as long as the water and topsoil last.

I did not include the Great Plains because they are so different from the Midwest. The Great Plains, for instance, had most of its immigrants come from either northern Germany or Scandanavia, and they were typically middle class and educated. The Midwest attracted immigrants closer to what the East Coast attracted: poor people from Southern and Eastern Europe and the Levant. Furthermore, the Plains always had a great emphasis on education, whereas the Midwest did not (with some local variation). You can see the rough cultural differences if you ever look at an electoral vote map from 2008, and see which states were red, and which were blue.

[Trollgaard]

Can the Midwest of the United States ever stage an economic revival, or will it continue to stagnate while the rest of the nation goes forward? By Midwest, I typically mean the states that border the Great Lakes (note this isn't the same as the Rust Belt in general). While many include Great Plains states, such as Iowa and Nebraska, I hesitate to include them as they have a far different economic dynamic and social history than the rest of the region.

If you only meant the Great Lakes States rather than the Midwest, you should have said as much in the title.

The Great Plains States are doing fine, and can be expected to continue as long as the water and topsoil last.

Seriously. As far as I know Kansas is doing alright. Wichita has been struggling, and I've read that Boeing might make further cuts in jobs, but I'm not up do date on that.

But in general Kansas seems to be doing pretty well.

[Northwest Slobovia]

Comeback?

GSP growth rates per by state.

Poverty or the lack thereof in the US.
(Image)

Nice map, but I don't think it means what the author(s) want it to mean. All those purple and yellow bits they call "outliers" suggest the dividing line is in the wrong place. It looks more like there's a pocket of poverty in West Virginia and eastern Kentucky, but otherwise the dividing line should be much further south. Likewise for Florida and central Texas. And parts of the Great Plains don't look too healthy...

[Arkinesia]

If they give up religion.

Religion has nothing to do with industry fleeing the region.

Industry is fleeing the region because Midwesterners grew dependent on unions. When right-to-work states became the in thing and Midwesterners were hipsters about it, industry bolted.

Pretty simple.

[Free Soviets]

If they give up religion.

Religion has nothing to do with industry fleeing the region.

Industry is fleeing the region because Midwesterners grew dependent on unions. When right-to-work states became the in thing and Midwesterners were hipsters about it, industry bolted.

Pretty simple.

except, of course, for one small problem. of the top ten manufacturing states, only three have right-to-work laws, and indiana's only got signed a couple weeks ago. and manufacturing output has actually gone up in midwestern states - yes, even in michigan - over the past few decades. industry hasn't seriously been fleeing at all.

the real midwestern problem is that increasing output isn't requiring more employees any more, and too many areas of the midwest didn't have diverse enough economies to deal with that transition easily. its sort of like the problem experienced in the big empty states as regards farming. or the resource extraction states. or anywhere else that doesn't have a culturally vibrant urban center, really. company towns ain't a good idea.

[Arkinesia]

Religion has nothing to do with industry fleeing the region.

Industry is fleeing the region because Midwesterners grew dependent on unions. When right-to-work states became the in thing and Midwesterners were hipsters about it, industry bolted.

Pretty simple.

except, of course, for one small problem. of the top ten manufacturing states, only three have right-to-work laws, and indiana's only got signed a couple weeks ago. and manufacturing output has actually gone up in midwestern states - yes, even in michigan - over the past few decades. industry hasn't seriously been fleeing at all.

the real midwestern problem is that increasing output isn't requiring more employees any more, and too many areas of the midwest didn't have diverse enough economies to deal with that transition easily. its sort of like the problem experienced in the big empty states as regards farming. or the resource extraction states. or anywhere else that doesn't have a culturally vibrant urban center, really. company towns ain't a good idea.

Industry has only recently been leaving. Caterpillar is moving their second-largest manufacturing facility from central Illinois, not far from their largest facility in Peoria, to Athens, Georgia (speaking as someone who lives in Georgia, I'm not fully convinced it's a great idea, since Georgia is a shitty state to do business in, but whatever) and according to the locals when I visited, it's the latest in a number of small cuts from various formerly local manufacturers.

They're generally fearing that the big facilities are going to move soon, much like the auto industry has been doing for years, moving toward Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina.

[Lakeland]

I can't speak for Cincinnati, but my experience with other company-dominated towns is that they eventually fail with the company.

This is why San Fransisco and Seattle will fall eventually, once IT peaks and begins to become less centralized.

[Lakeland]

Comeback?

GSP growth rates per by state.

Poverty or the lack thereof in the US.
(Image)

It'd be useful for me to see poverty based on purchasing power. The map may look the same, but my understanding is that many have moved to the Sunbelt because they can buy more while spending less. My understanding is also that the Midwest has the greatest income equality of the United States, although that could be because everyone's job prospects have moved in the same direction.

It's actually more expensive in most of the Sunbelt than it is in a place like Ohio or Indiana. I live in Chicago currently and it's only a tiny bit more expensive than Seattle. Chicago is a much much bigger city.

Everyone's job prospects have moved in the same direction, away from manufacturing and towards business services, healthcare, education and IT. A strong union tradition results in most jobs being decently paying, even the crappiest job will typically pay 15-16 an hour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ohio

[Lakeland]

Comeback?

GSP growth rates per by state.

Poverty or the lack thereof in the US.
(Image)

Nice map, but I don't think it means what the author(s) want it to mean. All those purple and yellow bits they call "outliers" suggest the dividing line is in the wrong place. It looks more like there's a pocket of poverty in West Virginia and eastern Kentucky, but otherwise the dividing line should be much further south. Likewise for Florida and central Texas. And parts of the Great Plains don't look too healthy...

If you actually click the link above the image it will take you to the article where they address that.

[Lakeland]

If they give up religion.

Religion has nothing to do with industry fleeing the region.

Industry is fleeing the region because Midwesterners grew dependent on unions. When right-to-work states became the in thing and Midwesterners were hipsters about it, industry bolted.

Pretty simple.

Basically this, they priced themselves out of a job, The South is just Mexico light.

[The Global Proletariat]

I can't speak for Cincinnati, but my experience with other company-dominated towns is that they eventually fail with the company.

This is why San Fransisco and Seattle will fall eventually, once IT peaks and begins to become less centralized.

I can't speak for Seattle, but Silicon Valley (where I have some experience) will go through a transition at some point. It may already be starting. Are you familiar with Silicon Alley?

[Lakeland]

This is why San Fransisco and Seattle will fall eventually, once IT peaks and begins to become less centralized.

I can't speak for Seattle, but Silicon Valley (where I have some experience) will go through a transition at some point. It may already be starting. Are you familiar with Silicon Alley?

I haven't heard that specific phrase but I do remember reading an article which showed that San Jose had created almost no jobs from the 90's to present due to the boom and bust nature of the economy there. If you have any articles related to it I'd be interested in reading them.

[Shrillland]

It'd be useful for me to see poverty based on purchasing power. The map may look the same, but my understanding is that many have moved to the Sunbelt because they can buy more while spending less. My understanding is also that the Midwest has the greatest income equality of the United States, although that could be because everyone's job prospects have moved in the same direction.

It's actually more expensive in most of the Sunbelt than it is in a place like Ohio or Indiana. I live in Chicago currently and it's only a tiny bit more expensive than Seattle. Chicago is a much much bigger city.

Everyone's job prospects have moved in the same direction, away from manufacturing and towards business services, healthcare, education and IT. A strong union tradition results in most jobs being decently paying, even the crappiest job will typically pay 15-16 an hour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ohio

Downstate we're not so lucky. Here the crappy jobs pay minimum wage. And we've been feeling the pain a lot here ourselves, after Maytag left and Caterpillar began shedding shifts at Mossville and East Peoria, unemployment's going down certainly, but most of it is just shifts coming back, not new jobs being made.

Getting back to the original question though, yes we are staging a comeback in some areas, up at Belvidere for example where Chrysler just doubled it's work force, and Business Services and IT will become more important, but the sad truth is that the Unions are scaring most employers away from the Closed Shop states like Illinois.