Massive earthquake hits Japan

[Sibirsky]

Jim Berkland (former USGS geologist) claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction and is predicting a major seismic event in California for tomorrow. Thoughts? Is this guy full of shit or does he have merit?

http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/ ... icted.html

I dunno, he predicted the Loma Prietta earthquake in california with astounding accuracy. (an earthquake i was in, btw)... i believe he has a website about his e-quake predictions, but i havent looked.

I'm glad you survived. I'm looking into it now.

[Sibirsky]

http://www.syzygyjob.com/

[Hydesland]

Jim Berkland (former USGS geologist) claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction and is predicting a major seismic event in California for tomorrow. Thoughts? Is this guy full of shit or does he have merit?

http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/ ... icted.html

This sort of thing always happens. After we had a really nasty blizzard in the UK over Christmas, this guy who claimed to be an extremely accurate weather forecaster, who bases much of his predictions on solar output, predicted with near certainty that we would be in a very dire situation over January, including extreme snowfall and very cold weather. It never happened.

[Faith Hope Charity]

I dunno, he predicted the Loma Prietta earthquake in california with astounding accuracy. (an earthquake i was in, btw)... i believe he has a website about his e-quake predictions, but i havent looked.

I'm glad you survived. I'm looking into it now.

heh, was 10 miles from the epicenter, closer than SF is... fortunately the apartment i was in was newer, didnt suffer alot of damage, but it was the largest e-quake ive been in.. and ive lived in CA most of my life.

[Sibirsky]

I'm glad you survived. I'm looking into it now.

heh, was 10 miles from the epicenter, closer than SF is... fortunately the apartment i was in was newer, didnt suffer alot of damage, but it was the largest e-quake ive been in.. and ive lived in CA most of my life.

6.9. My highest was a 6.4.

[Sdaeriji]

Jim Berkland (former USGS geologist) claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction and is predicting a major seismic event in California for tomorrow. Thoughts? Is this guy full of shit or does he have merit?

http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/ ... icted.html

This sort of thing always happens. After we had a really nasty blizzard in the UK over Christmas, this guy who claimed to be an extremely accurate weather forecaster, who bases much of his predictions on solar output, predicted with near certainty that we would be in a very dire situation over January, including extreme snowfall and very cold weather. It never happened.

It's also misleading because he doesn't count the earthquakes he fails to predict in his success rate. So all he does is predict that quakes will happen in vague geographic areas over a period of time. He only bothers to make predictions for areas with high earthquake activity.

Let's be honest, predicting that there might be an earthquake somewhere in the state of California some time between the 19th and the 26th isn't that outlandish of a prediction. I imagine most people with access to current seismological data could hit 75% of their marks.

[Daistallia 2104]

heh, was 10 miles from the epicenter, closer than SF is... fortunately the apartment i was in was newer, didnt suffer alot of damage, but it was the largest e-quake ive been in.. and ive lived in CA most of my life.

6.9. My highest was a 6.4.

7.3, but seismic intensity scales like the Shido or Mercalli scales are more useful in these sorts of comparisons.

[Sibirsky]

6.9. My highest was a 6.4.

7.3, but seismic intensity scales like the Shido or Mercalli scales are more useful in these sorts of comparisons.

I'm confused. For instance, comparing this earthquake to Haiti and Kobe '95.

Richter; 9.0 this one, 7.0 Haiti, 6.8 Kobe '95
Mercalli; IX this one, X Haiti, X-XI Kobe '95.

Ranking them in order of severity is the exact opposite based on the two scales.

The shindo scale is more useful but I didn't find any examples.

[Daistallia 2104]

7.3, but seismic intensity scales like the Shido or Mercalli scales are more useful in these sorts of comparisons.

I'm confused. For instance, comparing this earthquake to Haiti and Kobe '95.

Richter; 9.0 this one, 7.0 Haiti, 6.8 Kobe '95
Mercalli; IX this one, X Haiti, X-XI Kobe '95.

Ranking them in order of severity is the exact opposite based on the two scales.

The shindo scale is more useful but I didn't find any examples.

Shindo's used only in Japan. The reason for the confusion is that Richter measures the energy at the point while the various intensity scales measure the felt effects. The effects may be felt differently depending on the depth and distance, among other things.

[Sibirsky]

I'm confused. For instance, comparing this earthquake to Haiti and Kobe '95.

Richter; 9.0 this one, 7.0 Haiti, 6.8 Kobe '95
Mercalli; IX this one, X Haiti, X-XI Kobe '95.

Ranking them in order of severity is the exact opposite based on the two scales.

The shindo scale is more useful but I didn't find any examples.

Shindo's used only in Japan. The reason for the confusion is that Richter measures the energy at the point while the various intensity scales measure the felt effects. The effects may be felt differently depending on the depth and distance, among other things.

That makes sense. A 9.0-9.9 (Richter) quake occurs on average once every 20 years. Japan averages 400 earthquakes per day. But most are below 2.

[The Corparation]

Jim Berkland (former USGS geologist) claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction and is predicting a major seismic event in California for tomorrow. Thoughts? Is this guy full of shit or does he have merit?

http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/ ... icted.html

That guy is full of BS. Fish get disoriented in a harbor and choke themselves so there's going to be a giant earthquake? And whales approached the shore in San Diego? Gentlemen I belive we should heed his words and get to making ourselves tinfoil hard hats.

[Sane Outcasts]

The replacement power cable reached the power plant today and appears to be working properly. Once more cable is laid inside the plant complex, the Japanese will be powering up cooling systems and seeing if they still work.

(Reuters) - Exhausted engineers attached a power cable to the outside of Japan's tsunami-crippled nuclear station on Saturday in a race to prevent deadly radiation from an accident now rated at least as bad as America's Three Mile Island in 1979.

Further cabling inside was underway before an attempt to restart water pumps needed to cool overheated nuclear fuel rods at the six-reactor Fukushima plant in northeastern Japan, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

[The Corparation]

The replacement power cable reached the power plant today and appears to be working properly. Once more cable is laid inside the plant complex, the Japanese will be powering up cooling systems and seeing if they still work.

(Reuters) - Exhausted engineers attached a power cable to the outside of Japan's tsunami-crippled nuclear station on Saturday in a race to prevent deadly radiation from an accident now rated at least as bad as America's Three Mile Island in 1979.

Further cabling inside was underway before an attempt to restart water pumps needed to cool overheated nuclear fuel rods at the six-reactor Fukushima plant in northeastern Japan, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

This is good news. Still you would of thought they'd of gotten the generators working.They're literally just train engines and aren't that complicated. Anyone know how many they actually have there? I know some plants only have 1 or 2. My dad works at SONGS and they have 4 generators, 2 per reactor interconnected so that any 1 generator can run the pumps. But he's been to other plants with less, one in Canada was a 6 unit plant but had only one backup generator for the whole plant.

[Sibirsky]

A graphic of Japan's earthquakes since March 9th.


You can listen to the sound of the quake here and there's yet another tsunami video. This one is particularly frightening as a man is seen walking on the roof of a building across the street. The camera moves away to film another angle, comes back, and the building is gone.

Ichiro Suzuki donated ¥100 million to Japan's relief efforts.

Irrational Americans drove prices for potassium iodide from $10 to $200 per pack on the secondary market. Got money to burn? Send it to Japan!

[Parti Ouvrier]

Jim Berkland (former USGS geologist) claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction and is predicting a major seismic event in California for tomorrow. Thoughts? Is this guy full of shit or does he have merit?

http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/ ... icted.html

It might be or might not be. Cynicism aside though, I think it's very important for us to have more faith in human endeavour.

[Jari Head]

Watching Fox in order to stay current...

There goes some cred right there.
Hmm, the 19th is this Saturday and the 26th is next sat. So if there isn't a 4.0 or better event in SoCal next week he just himself in the foot.

[Daistallia 2104]

Got money to burn? Send it to Japan!

Absolutely. The freak out over nuclear unreal threats is causing misery and real harm.

[EagleScout24]

It's sad to know that we sent all this money to Haiti, which was great, but we need to expect any other sudden natural disasters so that we don't burn the pockets of Americans with donations.

[Sibirsky]

Got money to burn? Send it to Japan!

Absolutely. The freak out over nuclear unreal threats is causing misery and real harm.

My personal goal is to send more to Japan than I sent to Queensland. Queensland has a leg up because that was funded entirely from my federal income tax refund. I don't have that luxury today.

[Sibirsky]

It's sad to know that we sent all this money to Haiti, which was great, but we need to expect any other sudden natural disasters so that we don't burn the pockets of Americans with donations.

How is sending money to Haiti sad? Burning Americans' pockets? I don't advocate sending your mortgage payment to Japan. I advocate forgoing you $5 latte every day for a month and sending them $150. The average donation to Red Cross has been ~$60 for relief in Japan.

[Fartsniffage]

It's sad to know that we sent all this money to Haiti, which was great, but we need to expect any other sudden natural disasters so that we don't burn the pockets of Americans with donations.

How is sending money to Haiti sad? Burning Americans' pockets? I don't advocate sending your mortgage payment to Japan. I advocate forgoing you $5 latte every day for a month and sending them $150. The average donation to Red Cross has been ~$60 for relief in Japan.

One should never disparage any amount given to a charity. Even the smallest amount will help.

[Sibirsky]

How is sending money to Haiti sad? Burning Americans' pockets? I don't advocate sending your mortgage payment to Japan. I advocate forgoing you $5 latte every day for a month and sending them $150. The average donation to Red Cross has been ~$60 for relief in Japan.

One should never disparage any amount given to a charity. Even the smallest amount will help.

Of course. I was just giving an example of something someone can give up. Hell, give up a latte for 2 days, send $10 and feed several people for a day.

There are 450 thousand homeless people in Northern Japan right now. They have no homes, very little food and water, shortages of just about everything as access has been hampered. It's an extremely difficult situation for them. They can use our help.

[Fartsniffage]

One should never disparage any amount given to a charity. Even the smallest amount will help.

Of course. I was just giving an example of something someone can give up. Hell, give up a latte for 2 days, send $10 and feed several people for a day.

There are 450 thousand homeless people in Northern Japan right now. They have no homes, very little food and water, shortages of just about everything as access has been hampered. It's an extremely difficult situation for them. They can use our help.

Thankfully my latte's don't cost $5 but I get what you mean.

Unfortunately my charitable itch has been well and truly scratched by Comic Relief.

[Sibirsky]

Of course. I was just giving an example of something someone can give up. Hell, give up a latte for 2 days, send $10 and feed several people for a day.

There are 450 thousand homeless people in Northern Japan right now. They have no homes, very little food and water, shortages of just about everything as access has been hampered. It's an extremely difficult situation for them. They can use our help.

Thankfully my latte's don't cost $5 but I get what you mean.

Unfortunately my charitable itch has been well and truly scratched by Comic Relief.

I get all my caffeine at work. I don't pay a dime.

[Grandais]

I donated $20 to the Red Cross last week. The impact of the tragedy really hit me when I saw it on the news. I also speak Japanese, so I feel some knid of affinity with these people.