Tensions between the two major powers, the United States and China, are heating up. China is increasingly challenging the US-built world order, economically, diplomatically, militarily, and scientifically. Currently, we witness the start of two crucial fields of competition that might radically alter the global geopolitics: the green-transition race and the AI race. Both sides powers would like to dominate (or at least not be left behind) the development of these two technologies and industries. Essential to both is the securing of key resources. This is a particularly acute problem for the US given that a large part of these resources are in China or in third nations where China has made significant diplomatic or economic advances. Relatively smaller, but prospective powers, like the EU, have also started taking notice of the need to secure access to those resources.
This takes us to think outside-the-box or, in this case, outside-the-Earth. Many of the rare resources that are needed for the future aren't so rare in our solar system. A single asteroid of the millions that populate the Asteroid Belt has contains more of these resources than what we can find in Earth's crust. And although asteroid mining might still be half a century away, Moon mining might not be such an unreasonable undertaking. In fact, both the US and China are looking at the Moon as a potential geopolitical game-changer. The American-led Artemis program joins many of the signatories of the Artemis Accords in seeking to return to the Moon by 2025 and to establish a permanent base by 2032. Conversely, China along with its junior partner Russia, along three other nations so far, seek to land and establish a base in early 2030s.
The lunar South Pole is a leading candidate for these settlements (I'll avoid the word colonies, because it attracts anticolonialism feelings that I frankly find unfounded and often ignorant). The region presents good direct telecommunications with planet Earth, receives sunlight almost all year round, enabling power-generation through solar panels, and is rich in lunar craters, presenting a potential shadowed regions where water ice might be present. NASA named Shackleton crater as a potential site for a lunar base. China/Russia, for their side, named Malapert and Amundsen craters.
Now the interesting part is that the selected craters are located at around 350 kilometers from each other; distances equivalent to the distance between Washington DC and New York. This means that by mid 2030s we might have two relatively close human settlements in the Moon, belonging to two rival geopolitical blocs on Earth. Of course we should expect that some degree of cooperation between both sides and settlements will occur, excluding each other, they are after all, living farther apart from any other human than anyone ever was in any point in history. However, we should also expect tensions and competitions for the same resources to arise sooner or later, which will have consequences both on the both world of the Earth-Moon system.
Given how close this reality now appears to be, I find this topic super interesting. It gets even more complex when other nations seek to also establish a foot on the Moon (India is seeking to become the fourth nation, after US, China and Soviet Union/Russia, to land there a rover), and even private companies are drawing their own plans for exploration of this growing sector. What are your thoughts about this upcoming Second Space Race?
edit: I've changed the title in order to differentiate from the general space thread that was later created.
