(Possible)Scotland Referendum II:The Referendum reawakens?

[Valaran]

Your second sentence is exactly my point. England is London.

Oh man that is not true. We are apparently very far removed from England at this stage, and we are European here as well.

America is already concerned about the European situation. By what is going on in Ukraine, it is evident that America needs and wants as unified a Europe as possible. And that translates into NATO action and where it should be applied. Which speaks directly to what is going to go on with Trident, referendum or no referendum, because Scottish independence will happen regardless.

[/quote]

But this concern is now not directed at the UK, which has basically fucked off. Scotland is not a strategic concern, and neither it nor the rUK will make much of a difference to European unity (specifically the EU) from here own out.

The rUK will likely still have nukes even with Scottish independence, so its not a concern in of itself.

[Glamour]

Bear in mind also that the 2 year timescale Cameron declared, including that he would not be the one to negotiate leaving Europe because he campaigned to remain in the EU, but that it would instead be his replacement, is being challenged by the EU who want immediate negotiations for leaving. The bed has been made, and it must be lain in.

It means that the Scottish government will be reacting to this chaos, but also allowing the Scottish populace to behold it before they react. When Sturgeon said that Westminster was in chaos but that she would act decisively, she was not being facetious.

[Glamour]

Oh man that is not true. We are apparently very far removed from England at this stage, and we are European here as well.

But this concern is now not directed at the UK, which has basically fucked off. Scotland is not a strategic concern, and neither it nor the rUK will make much of a difference to European unity (specifically the EU) from here own out.

The rUK will likely still have nukes even with Scottish independence, so its not a concern in of itself.

But you voted to the contrary. The entire point why the West is going to war with Russia is to defend democracy.

Yes. The UK has fucked off. And in the process it has said "off" to Scotland. During the first indy ref, it said "fuck... wait for it".

Now we have been told to fuck off. So has London. London does have the say in this, and if Scotland voted to be independent or is denied a vote and declares its independence, then it cannot take England and Wales as a whole with it in its quest to remain in the EU, because the people have spoken. And by then, so will the Scots, London will agree with them, and Northern Ireland will have to make its own mind up because it has long been in limbo. European or not European? British or not British? Scotland has decided that it is European and will decide as a result that it is not British. London, when it comes down to the wire, does not care about what is British, but rather about European values and tactics.

[Valaran]

But you voted to the contrary.

No we didn't. London was the second highest vote share for Remain. Please do not generalise with regards to England, - it is not a hivemind, and there are very present cracks within that nation.

The entire point why the West is going to war with Russia is to defend democracy.

That's very debatable. Arguably of greater concern is national sovereignty (espcially with regards to Ukraine), and geo-political interests (spheres of influence).

Now we have been told to fuck off. So has London. London does have the say in this, and if Scotland voted to be independent or is denied a vote and declares its independence, then it cannot take England and Wales as a whole with it in its quest to remain in the EU, because the people have spoken. And by then, so will the Scots, London will agree with them, and Northern Ireland will have to make its own mind up because it has long been in limbo. European or not European? British or not British? Scotland has decided that it is European and will decide as a result that it is not British. London, when it comes down to the wire, does not care about what is British, but rather about European values and tactics.

I'd probably agree with this, though I may have misunderstood.

[Juristonia]

Edit: This'd be better for the other thread.

[Glamour]

You have understood that my point is that Scotland and London are separate from the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland is a law unto itself.

I have already said that it is debatable as to exactly what democracy is. But the West frames it sphere of influence as one of democracy, and that in my mind makes it clear that it will not be able or willing to take all of England and indeed any of Wales with it when London refuses to deny itself as part of the West, and Scotland takes the same view.

[Valaran]

You have understood that my point is that Scotland and London are separate from the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland is a law unto itself.

I have already said that it is debatable as to exactly what democracy is. But the West frames it sphere of influence as one of democracy, and that in my mind makes it clear that it will not be able or willing to take all of England and indeed any of Wales with it when London refuses to deny itself as part of the West, and Scotland takes the same view.

mhm.

I think the west ignores that frame when it is difficult to enforce it, and an attempt to stop a new indyref would be exactly that kind of difficulty. Of course, I also doubt that an english attempt to stop a new indyref will work, or that a concerted effort will even happen at all

[Glamour]

I think that the options are either that it is ignored and that results in chaos on the very West of Europe and the very East of it, or else it is something that people who like to have a say in things of that nature in that area have their say in.

Either these options or Westminster cooperates, but I think that the first time it happened it was not only a matter of being unwilling to cooperate but also a matter of sabotage.

Irish independence is a law unto itself because the law was broken there.

Trump came to Scotland the day after the EU referendum. He said he was glad that we were taking our country back, even though there were Mexican flags on his golf course, and he said that with bagpipes in the background and tears in his eyes amidst blubbering of how glad he was to be there and someone shouting in his face about a divided world in a broad Scottish accent. He came here because he knew he had to make a statement. Trump is all about being involved in the drama. Clinton will pay attention to this and her chips are on the EU table, not on any shattered British one. All segments of the American population right now love an underdog and hate imperialist warfare. Even those who are into war in America are not about anyone conquering anyone else, but instead are about self-defence in preservation of democracy (see: Israel), and the rest who are not interested in war are interested in progressivism, much like Scotland, and much unlike Wales and England (with the exception of London).

If Scotland had one thing to say, it would be: we have had enough. And that can be interpreted in whatever fashion.

[The Wolven League]

Wasn't a second referendum already planned? Just, not anytime soon (until brexit)?

[Valaran]

Wasn't a second referendum already planned? Just, not anytime soon (until brexit)?

I wouldn't say 'planned' as much as 'desired by a segment of the populace'.

[Glamour]

Wasn't a second referendum already planned? Just, not anytime soon (until brexit)?

It was not planned, but it was categorically said that it would be planned and take place if there was to be a material change in the circumstances under which the first result was determined, and if the sovereign Scottish people felt that there was such a mandate to hold one. I believe the petitions to the Scottish government are gaining almost as much steam as the petitions for the English and Welsh who voted to leave the EU to hold another EU referendum.

One thing I can guarantee is that there is no way a second EU referendum is going to happen.

[Lokayata]

according to the BBC 73% of Voters aged 18-24 voted to remain in the EU so if Scotland voted in favour of independence would Scotland receive an influx of young English Immigrants
Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028

[Shofercia]

In the fallout of Brexit, a lot of people in Scotland seem to want a new referendum for there

(Image) (credit to Galloism for Idea)

to re join the EU.

So, NSG the question seems clear.

Will they have a new referendum? Will that referendum succeed?

Or will there be a deal for Scotland (who for the most part voted to stay) to get in the EU while being a part of the UK?


For me, I think that this will lead to a new referendum. The original vote stay arguement for being a part in the UK was that they would still be a part of the EU.

Now that thats gone, I think a new referendum is going to happen.

What about you NSG?

Here's the question: will the EU accept Scotland independent of the UK?

It seems to me that Scotland wants to secede from London and join Brussels, but if the Scots wouldn't get EU membership, would they still secede from London? Could Spain block Scotland from joining the EU?

[Questers]

Could Spain block Scotland from joining the EU?

Yes, new members require unanimity.

[Saint-Thor]

Could Spain block Scotland from joining the EU?

Yes, new members require unanimity.

But since Germany and France will probably tell Spain to shut up, it's not a concern.

[Questers]

Yes, new members require unanimity.

But since Germany and France will probably tell Spain to shut up, it's not a concern.

Sure about that? Wanting to prevent secession->EU is a major Spanish concern. I don't see why France or Germany would care, frankly. Scotland is a country of 6 million people, it won't want to be inside the Euro unless it becomes utterly nuts, it will have long-lasting problems with England over the border. Why would its entry trump Spanish concerns?

[The East Marches]

t will have long-lasting problems with England over the border.

New hammer of the Scots when?

[Valaran]

t will have long-lasting problems with England over the border.

New hammer of the Scots when?

Maybe Farage could lead the charge.

[Kaztropol]

What a mess.

This is going to take years to sort out.

At stake are many, many things. Lots of little things such as vehicle registrations, driving licences, access to the police national computer, and much much more.

But it is the bigger things that are of more immediate concern.

Are exports to the EU the primary motivation ? But exports to the Rest of the UK are several times larger.
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493262-1050.png
If there's a choice between one or the other, then either way, Scotland loses. Much of Scotlands exports to Europe go by road, through the Channel Tunnel. Things like seafood, which was a big issue during the problems with the Channel Tunnel being closed a few months back.

Free movement of citizens between Scotland and the EU ? But what about free movement of citizens between Scotland and the UK ? It might be a choice between one or the other. The border might no longer be open, and that'll hugely disadvantage trade, and tourism as well. UK-origin tourists spend quite a bit more than foreign tourists, and appear in larger numbers.

What about the electricity market ? There will be an incentive for the UK government to increase domestic supply of electricity, to reduce requirements for "foreign imports", and where is that going to leave the Scottish renewables industry ? It'd squash the biggest demand for Scottish wind energy.


I can't see Scotland becoming a member of the EU being anything like a quick or simple process. I suspect the mood amongst much of the EU will be "No! No more special treatments. No more exceptions", which might mean no Scotland rebate, no exemption from the Euro, no exemption from Schengen. Which would mean a trade border and customs points at the border with England, with the resulting great harm to Scottish trade and employment.



Worst Referendum Ever.

[Divitaen]

What a mess.

This is going to take years to sort out.

At stake are many, many things. Lots of little things such as vehicle registrations, driving licences, access to the police national computer, and much much more.

But it is the bigger things that are of more immediate concern.

Are exports to the EU the primary motivation ? But exports to the Rest of the UK are several times larger.
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493262-1050.png
If there's a choice between one or the other, then either way, Scotland loses. Much of Scotlands exports to Europe go by road, through the Channel Tunnel. Things like seafood, which was a big issue during the problems with the Channel Tunnel being closed a few months back.

Free movement of citizens between Scotland and the EU ? But what about free movement of citizens between Scotland and the UK ? It might be a choice between one or the other. The border might no longer be open, and that'll hugely disadvantage trade, and tourism as well. UK-origin tourists spend quite a bit more than foreign tourists, and appear in larger numbers.

What about the electricity market ? There will be an incentive for the UK government to increase domestic supply of electricity, to reduce requirements for "foreign imports", and where is that going to leave the Scottish renewables industry ? It'd squash the biggest demand for Scottish wind energy.


I can't see Scotland becoming a member of the EU being anything like a quick or simple process. I suspect the mood amongst much of the EU will be "No! No more special treatments. No more exceptions", which might mean no Scotland rebate, no exemption from the Euro, no exemption from Schengen. Which would mean a trade border and customs points at the border with England, with the resulting great harm to Scottish trade and employment.



Worst Referendum Ever.

Doesn't matter though, Scotland having access to the EU market would still help boost the Scottish economy. Scottish voters are right to be worried about the economic impact of the Brexit vote and if they do vote to leave the UK it will be a direct reaction to that catastrophic decision. UK's trade with the EU is not negligible and the UK derives 3 million jobs from trade with EU companies so it makes sense that Scottish voters have now changed their minds in favour of independence given what has just happened.

[Divitaen]

Wasn't a second referendum already planned? Just, not anytime soon (until brexit)?

It was not planned, but it was categorically said that it would be planned and take place if there was to be a material change in the circumstances under which the first result was determined, and if the sovereign Scottish people felt that there was such a mandate to hold one. I believe the petitions to the Scottish government are gaining almost as much steam as the petitions for the English and Welsh who voted to leave the EU to hold another EU referendum.

One thing I can guarantee is that there is no way a second EU referendum is going to happen.

Nicola Sturgeon is already pushing for one and so many Scottish voters outraged by the EU result were petitioning for one after the result went through, so as you said in all likelihood a second Scottish referendum will happen and this time the outcome will be very different.

[Memell]

But since Germany and France will probably tell Spain to shut up, it's not a concern.

Sure about that? Wanting to prevent secession->EU is a major Spanish concern. I don't see why France or Germany would care, frankly. Scotland is a country of 6 million people, it won't want to be inside the Euro unless it becomes utterly nuts, it will have long-lasting problems with England over the border. Why would its entry trump Spanish concerns?

Actually, cosnidering the stagnation of Spain´s economy, the EU might actually be better of ditching Spain by means of supporting Catalonia in its indipendence bid, and by doing so also indirectly endorse Scotland.

[Kaztropol]

Doesn't matter though, Scotland having access to the EU market would still help boost the Scottish economy.

Not much of a boost if there's a bigger detrimental effect to the economy through inconveniences to Scottish businesses trading to the UK market, trade to which was ~4 times the size of the trade to the EU market.

And like I said, a lot of Scottish exports to the EU go by road via the Channel tunnel, it's not economic to send them by sea or air. What's going to be the impact on that, because then they'd be departing the EU when they cross to England, then re-entering it when they cross the Tunnel ? Seems like there'd be a lot more paperwork and expense involved.

[Great Feng]

did the Scots have a colonial empire ever at all?

[Seraven]

did the Scots have a colonial empire ever at all?

They attempted to colonized Panama, they failed and wasted 1/3 of their national budget, forced them to joined England to paid off the debt.

And then Great Britain was born.