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Superbacteria has reached its final form

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Esternial
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Superbacteria has reached its final form

Postby Esternial » Fri May 27, 2016 8:10 am

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Short background

For years now, humanity has been fighting a constant battle against pathogenic bacteria. The discovery of antibiotics was a milestone, but as it turns out every time we managed to defeat these microscopic villains, some managed to transform into a variant that could resist our arsenal of antibiotics. For most antibiotics, the timespan between discovery of a new antibiotic and a resistant strain emerging has been only a few years after their introduction (table).

For about well over two to three decades, the increase of our arsenal has steadily declinedFig. 1, which is most likely a consequence of the low profitability of antibiotics research and production. Most commonly, small research groups tend to do the work and then pass over their result to a pharmaceutical company for clinical trials (because most often these small groups can't fund such trials). For pharmaceutical companies, the cost to develop these life-saving drugs is often not sufficiently compensate for by later profits, as most often a patent has to be filed before the drug can actually be sold, and by the time it can be sold the patent will run out before a substantial profit can be made, which is why these companies will often opt for more profitable drug research and development.

Image


Governments have tried to give incentives to companies to put their work into this kind of life-saving research, but it seems time may not be on their/our side.


Topic of the thread

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to- ... d-the-u-s/

A bacterial strain has been discovered that is resistant to our "last resort" antibiotic. While this is not alarming at the moment, it does mean the bacterial gene pool now contains a gene that imparts this resistance, and bacteria have mechanisms for "horizontal gene transfer" (i.e. passing on specific genes from one bacteria to another, which isn't directly "related" to it. Imagine it as being able to give one of your genes to your friend).

In places where there is a strong selective pressure (e.g. hospitals, etc.) only the bacteria that can resist the right antibiotics may survive, which increases the likelihood of this gene being spread more as those than don't have it will just wither and die. While the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria is an inevitability, it has been expedited by mankind's irresponsible use of antibiotics. Putting it in animal feed, taking it for the common flu (something antibiotics can't do anything about), and so on.

It certainly does concern me, though there are alternatives to antibiotics so I'm hoping those will be put through the necessary checks before any toti-resistant bacteria emerges. There was talk about an alternative treatment that essentially "blows up" bacterial cells, but their applicability would be limited as not to harm your native bacterial population. Phage therapy has also been a promising alternative, which involves the use of bacteriophages (viruses that attack bacteria), but as far as I know this road isn't very popular in the West and is met with strict regulations.

So, to get down to the question here: what do you think about this development, NSG? Does it concern you? Is antibiotics reaching a dead end? Do you know of any other alternatives to antibiotics?

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Postby Alvecia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:18 am

I've been kind of expecting something like this for the past few years now. There really isn't enough done into research of alternative anti-bacterials imo.

But then humanity as a whole has never really been one to do something about a problem until it actively affects us.

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Postby Ostroeuropa » Fri May 27, 2016 8:19 am

Require two doctors to sign off before antibiotics can be given. Perhaps three.

Way more funds for medical research and genetic engineering.

More money for biological disaster national response and survival. If the problem looms, begin drilling the public akin to the nuclear war drills in the cold war.

Immediately cease antiobiotics for cattle.

It's a problem, and it's only going to get worse, until we engineer our way out of it or have some other medical breakthrough. Potentially with enough funds toward genetic engineering we may become adept at making counter-bacterias which would target and consume ones we deem a problem, akin to vaccines, or could edit humanity to become less succeptible.
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Postby Ethel mermania » Fri May 27, 2016 8:20 am

As I said the other day, humanity has peaked it's time to hand over the care of the planet to another species.

Let us put Down our sceptre and golden robes and go gently into that good night.
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Postby Proticata » Fri May 27, 2016 8:23 am

Well super bacterias wont be too much of a problems if everyone knew how to be hygenic then these diseases wont spread easily

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Postby Napkiraly » Fri May 27, 2016 8:25 am

Ethel mermania wrote:As I said the other day, humanity has peaked it's time to hand over the care of the planet to another species.

Let us put Down our sceptre and golden robes and go gently into that good night.

This won't cause humanity to go extinct.

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Postby Rhodevus » Fri May 27, 2016 8:26 am

It does greatly concern me that bacteria is becoming resistant to everything that we can throw at them (and that there are already bacteria that are). Do I think that antibiotics are now a dead end? I do not. The reason for this, is that science is now moving away from the traditional sources of antibiotics (plants, fungi, other bacteria) and moving towards much more technical sources. These include GMOs as well as looking at past and present animals which have resistances to various bacterias. We are using things we have never thought of before, such as Honey, Dogfish sharks, cicadas, Bioengineered AMPs, cockroaches, alligators and more. So, I do still think that we have many more years of fighting left in us against these bacterias, but the fight is nearly over. Unless we discover some sort of hail-mary against these tiny organisms, we may be facing some sort of epidemic on a movie scale.
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Postby Alvecia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:28 am

Napkiraly wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:As I said the other day, humanity has peaked it's time to hand over the care of the planet to another species.

Let us put Down our sceptre and golden robes and go gently into that good night.

This won't cause humanity to go extinct.

Probably not, if only for the same reason that this bacteria has become resistant. But I'd rather not go back to the days where we couldn't treat simple bacterial infections.

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Postby Ostroeuropa » Fri May 27, 2016 8:30 am

Napkiraly wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:As I said the other day, humanity has peaked it's time to hand over the care of the planet to another species.

Let us put Down our sceptre and golden robes and go gently into that good night.

This won't cause humanity to go extinct.


No, but it would greatly destabilize society and raise death rates significantly. We could expect epidemics to become a norm again.

Upside, more social mobility. The black death in europe caused a lot of upper and middle class vacancies which needed filling, for instance.
Downside, it's not social mobility based on competence. We'd be losing people randomly. Also, death.

Upside, population would decline.
Downside, probably too fast, and certainly in urban areas more than the suburbs and country. Economies would be weakened long term compared to their theoretical alternative (But may be stronger than currently because of other advances).

Neutral, the death rate we can expect wouldn't be something we're not used to as a species, and would actually be us performing on a good day, other than our best levels from 1990 to around 2020.

Upside, we can expect more local and decentralized industry to emerge.
Downside, because international trade and centralization becomes disincentivized, not because it's actually any better to decentralize. Prices will increase.

Neutral, power will swing away from cities back to the country more. This may cause conservative values to take more control of government, but will also weaken governments ability to enforce its will on the populace. Some states may enter periods of disorder as a result.

Society won't necessarily be that much worse, but it'll be very different. If we're not prepared for it, we can't hit the ground running.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Fri May 27, 2016 8:36 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Ethel mermania » Fri May 27, 2016 8:31 am

Napkiraly wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:As I said the other day, humanity has peaked it's time to hand over the care of the planet to another species.

Let us put Down our sceptre and golden robes and go gently into that good night.

This won't cause humanity to go extinct.


Work harder.
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Esternial
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Postby Esternial » Fri May 27, 2016 8:34 am

Rhodevus wrote:It does greatly concern me that bacteria is becoming resistant to everything that we can throw at them (and that there are already bacteria that are). Do I think that antibiotics are now a dead end? I do not. The reason for this, is that science is now moving away from the traditional sources of antibiotics (plants, fungi, other bacteria) and moving towards much more technical sources. These include GMOs as well as looking at past and present animals which have resistances to various bacterias. We are using things we have never thought of before, such as Honey, Dogfish sharks, cicadas, Bioengineered AMPs, cockroaches, alligators and more. So, I do still think that we have many more years of fighting left in us against these bacterias, but the fight is nearly over. Unless we discover some sort of hail-mary against these tiny organisms, we may be facing some sort of epidemic on a movie scale.

I see, that's pretty promising, but I do wonder how much interest/incentive there is for this alternative.

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Postby Valaran » Fri May 27, 2016 8:36 am

This is something of a constant battle. But one side fights organically; the other only when a kaleidoscopic mix of incentives, budgets and technology collide.
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Postby Proticata » Fri May 27, 2016 8:37 am

Also this is the modern times were sewage is no longer dumped on the streets and rivers, many people are aware on how to spread bacteria to other people well as least directly

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Postby Alvecia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:38 am

Proticata wrote:Also this is the modern times were sewage is no longer dumped on the streets and rivers,

Well, not everywhere at the very least.

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Postby New Antonalia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:40 am

Ostroeuropa wrote:
Napkiraly wrote:This won't cause humanity to go extinct.


No, but it would greatly destabilize society and raise death rates significantly. We could expect epidemics to become a norm again.

Upside, more social mobility. The black death in europe caused a lot of upper and middle class vacancies which needed filling, for instance.
Downside, it's not social mobility based on competence. We'd be losing people randomly. Also, death.

Upside, population would decline.
Downside, probably too fast, and certainly in urban areas more than the suburbs and country. Economies would be weakened long term compared to their theoretical alternative (But may be stronger than currently because of other advances).

Neutral, the death rate we can expect wouldn't be something we're not used to as a species, and would actually be us performing on a good day, other than our best levels from 1990 to around 2020.

Upside, we can expect more local and decentralized industry to emerge.
Downside, because international trade and centralization becomes disincentivized, not because it's actually any better to decentralize. Prices will increase.

Neutral, power will swing away from cities back to the country more. This may cause conservative values to take more control of government, but will also weaken governments ability to enforce its will on the populace. Some states may enter periods of disorder as a result.

Society won't necessarily be that much worse, but it'll be very different. If we're not prepared for it, we can't hit the ground running.

Well, in our modern age where we (Americans) think everything can be solved by rioting and acting like brain dead barbarians, then a lot of deaths will simply be solved by rioting and gathering a lot of people in one place, destroying vital commodities, vital services, and looting everything that isn't nailed down. So yeah, things in America won't be much worse
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Postby Ostroeuropa » Fri May 27, 2016 8:40 am

Oh, I forgot. Not all epidemics will kill.

In our modern age, we're also supporting the disabled rather than them just starving. We can expect disabilities to rise significantly, and that will place considerable strain on public services, the budget, and our economy.

All in all, as a result of this, we will be:

More decentralized
Poorer/Things will cost more
More socially mobile
Perhaps more conservative in values
Less globalized
And governments will be weaker.

There will be more disabled people. (Potentially significantly more.).
I expect this would lead to more emphasis placed on transhuman technologies and cures for blidnness, deafness, cybernetic limbs, etc, a lot of which already work pretty well, so it might actually work out okay for us on that front, but I expect we'll hit a brick wall when it comes to dealing with bacteria that radically disable someones brain or spine rather than eyes/ears or whatever, at least for the forseeable future.

The pension crisis will also be something we remember fondly compared to the new arrangement.

All of this is comparing us without antibiotics V us with them. In 50 years we may be richer than we are right now, but we'd be poorer than we would be in 50 years if we also had antibiotics, etc.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Fri May 27, 2016 8:43 am, edited 3 times in total.
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There is an out of control trolley speeding towards Jeremy Bentham, who is tied to the track. You can pull the lever to cause the trolley to switch tracks, but on the other track is Immanuel Kant. Bentham is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Critique of Pure Reason. Kant is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Principles of Moral Legislation. Both men are shouting at you that they have recently started to reconsider their ethical stances.

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Postby Proticata » Fri May 27, 2016 8:43 am

Alvecia wrote:
Proticata wrote:Also this is the modern times were sewage is no longer dumped on the streets and rivers,

Well, not everywhere at the very least.


Well since we are talking about antibiotics in countries were they are often which are mainly developed countries which is were the resistance is happening

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Postby Rhodevus » Fri May 27, 2016 8:43 am

Proticata wrote:Also this is the modern times were sewage is no longer dumped on the streets and rivers, many people are aware on how to spread bacteria to other people well as least directly


yes, but how many people take antibiotics and do not finish the full recommended dosage because they are already feeling better (the answer is most people). This is how superbacteria are created to resist our antibiotics. Only the strong survive, and because the person did not kill off every last bacteria (like they would have, if they took the full dosage) then those stronger bacteria are the only ones left in their chain.
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Postby Proticata » Fri May 27, 2016 8:46 am

Rhodevus wrote:
Proticata wrote:Also this is the modern times were sewage is no longer dumped on the streets and rivers, many people are aware on how to spread bacteria to other people well as least directly


yes, but how many people take antibiotics and do not finish the full recommended dosage because they are already feeling better (the answer is most people). This is how superbacteria are created to resist our antibiotics. Only the strong survive, and because the person did not kill off every last bacteria (like they would have, if they took the full dosage) then those stronger bacteria are the only ones left in their chain.


I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected

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Postby The Grim Reaper » Fri May 27, 2016 8:48 am

Proticata wrote:
Rhodevus wrote:
yes, but how many people take antibiotics and do not finish the full recommended dosage because they are already feeling better (the answer is most people). This is how superbacteria are created to resist our antibiotics. Only the strong survive, and because the person did not kill off every last bacteria (like they would have, if they took the full dosage) then those stronger bacteria are the only ones left in their chain.


I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected


And the poor, and the immunodeficient, and the unlucky, and anyone who works in close contact to transmission vectors (emergency services, cubicle workers, graverobbers, aviation service workers, serial killers, etc.).
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Postby Ostroeuropa » Fri May 27, 2016 8:50 am

The Grim Reaper wrote:
Proticata wrote:
I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected


And the poor, and the immunodeficient, and the unlucky, and anyone who works in close contact to transmission vectors (emergency services, cubicle workers, graverobbers, aviation service workers, serial killers, etc.).


It's the rich who are usually fucked hardest by epidemics without medicines tbh. They're an international community of their own. They get to be hit by every epidemic from every nation, compared to the poor.
Only the poor in capital and major cities will get hit as reliably as the rich do.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Fri May 27, 2016 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Rhodevus » Fri May 27, 2016 8:51 am

Proticata wrote:
Rhodevus wrote:
yes, but how many people take antibiotics and do not finish the full recommended dosage because they are already feeling better (the answer is most people). This is how superbacteria are created to resist our antibiotics. Only the strong survive, and because the person did not kill off every last bacteria (like they would have, if they took the full dosage) then those stronger bacteria are the only ones left in their chain.


I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected


but I am not saying that it won't be the end of humanity. I just clearly stated that we are helping bacteria get the upper hand over us. Yes, we may not all die from the plague, but out of epidemics, aliens and ourselves, epidemics is the most promising way of killing every last one of us (or at least an extremely large majority of us)
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Postby Alvecia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:51 am

Proticata wrote:
Rhodevus wrote:
yes, but how many people take antibiotics and do not finish the full recommended dosage because they are already feeling better (the answer is most people). This is how superbacteria are created to resist our antibiotics. Only the strong survive, and because the person did not kill off every last bacteria (like they would have, if they took the full dosage) then those stronger bacteria are the only ones left in their chain.


I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected

I'm not sure that intelligence has any effect on bacterial immunity

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Postby Rhodevus » Fri May 27, 2016 8:52 am

Alvecia wrote:
Proticata wrote:
I agree with this people think antibiotics resistance will be the end humanity which is wrong the weak and dumb people will probably be the most effected

I'm not sure that intelligence has any effect on bacterial immunity


well...
*looks over to those people who think vaccines give people autism and refuse to give their kids any shots, and bring back long nearly extinct diseases*
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Postby Alvecia » Fri May 27, 2016 8:55 am

Rhodevus wrote:
Alvecia wrote:I'm not sure that intelligence has any effect on bacterial immunity


well...
*looks over to those people who think vaccines give people autism and refuse to give their kids any shots, and bring back long nearly extinct diseases*

Not quite what I meant, but sure.

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