A drought wipes out a good amount of the year’s crop yield for Mubata. Soy, wheat, tobacco and coffee bean crops suffer. The government seizes stocks and starts rationing.
One Year, 10 Months Before Yolenga Liberation
With growing inflation and threats of the Government seizing assets to pay foreign debts, there is a run on the banks.
KARALAGA
One large protest leads to a run on the First National Mubatan Bank which is repulsed by riot police in Karalaga. 48 civilians are killed and 2 policemen. A 24 hour curfew is put into effect. Massive crackdowns on unrest by government forces across Karalaga and Tenipako leaves another 64 people dead and countless injured.
One Year, 7 Months Before YL Event
Despite the deteriorating situation in the major cities, the campaign against the long simmering Marxist insurgency sees growing success. The major rebel group, the MFM (Mubatan Freedom Movement) is led by Chigama Dzogara, who rose up through the ranks and led them to several victories over government forces, as well as becoming popular with a good portion of the rural, non-Tizi population. Slowly, civilian support for the MFM has been cut off due to the efforts of the Hyenas, the elite special operations groups of the Mubatan Army, and Directorate 57, the Mubatan government state security agency.
One Year, 2 Months Before YL Event
Dzogara is now aging and not able to lead from the front as he once did in his heyday twenty years previously. His command group slows down and becomes easier to track.
Spearheaded by the Hyenas, Operation Short Spear strikes a gold mine as they uncover a recent camp of Dzogara and his closest cadre. Mubatan government forces close in and surround the MFM Leadership cadre.
6 Months Prior to YL Event
Unrest in the cities is mostly pacified. The situation throughout the country has somewhat stabilized, even though economic collapse is still near. Many of the protest and opposition leaders are jailed or dead. Any hope of a viable open political opposition to Fazembe is now about dead. Many controversial figures that are oppressed by the regime, such as artists, musicians, intellectuals and populists, flee to Gylias and other welcoming nations in Tyran, where expat communities have been thriving for decades.
Hyena Spec Ops commandos prepare to close in on the main MFM camp.
After two long months of firefights and air raids, Dzogara and the bulk of the MFM leadership is surrounded Northwest of Zangtopo. After an extended firefight, Chieftan Dzogara and most of the rebel leadership of the MFM is wiped out, along with 322 guerrilla fighters of the MFM. It is the greatest military victory of the Government forces in three decades of fighting the rebels, all under generations of Fazembes. What is left of the MFM leadership scatters into hiding in the southern mountains and Eastern savanna. The MFM goes dormant in order to rebuild and recover from the defeat. Lini Fazembe declares victory, possibly prematurely in many minds, in the war against the Marxist rebellion.
The Mubatan Navy is expanded with retired, aging ships from their major benefactor, Shalum, who also provides training for the core of officers, petty officers and new sailor recruits. The ships are refurbished and expected to be ready to sail in 3-4 months. Up to this point, the Mubatan Navy has consisted of fast attack and patrol craft, with nothing larger than a missile boat.
4 Months Prior to YL Event
Rather than scale down due to the dwindling threat from within, the Mubatan military begins to build up. Arms, vehicles and refurbished fighter jets are imported with aid from Shalum and other benefactors. Some vehicles and arms, come straight from Shalum as part of an aid package deal, while others are bought at cheap discounted rates. As part of the deal, a 50 year lease for a base is signed, to be located near Gyata.
Training is stepped up and the Hyena Groups are increased. Large amounts of heavy ordnance, including anti-ship missiles, are imported utilizing foreign financial aid, diverted from famine assistance.
Another food riot breaks out in Karalaga in protest to continued rationing while obvious foreign aid is pouring in. 37 people are shot down or trampled in mob violence and suppression.
3 Months Prior to YL Event
Linaga Fazembe, or Papa Lini, as he is popularly known, makes several speeches in Karalaga denouncing the Imperialism of the major Tyran powers, most notably calling out Nalaya and Ossoria, only one of whom is an actual regional power.
Shalumite advisers, many of them from the Maldorian minority, begin to arrive to train with the Mubatan army and air force. Construction continues on a new base for the Shalumite military, per agreements between the two nations.
With the start of hostilities in Nalaya, Mubatan troops monitor the southern border. A small trickle of Nalayan refugees are allowed in, but most of them are robbed and assaulted along the freeways by bandits and surviving MFM rebels before they can reach the refuge outside major Mubatan cities. Fazembe’s regime covers up the attacks on refugees and shuts down any media coverage of the incidents. Very few Nalayan refugees follow the first wave.
2 Months Prior to YL Event
Papa Lini Fazembe makes a speech, first in Tizi, then in English, proclaiming that it is Mubatan destiny to reunite Yolenga Island with the mainland. It has been a long simmering desire to reclaim Yolenga island from Ossorian rule, lost over a century ago during the King Szamba War when the Ossorians defeated the Tizi Empire and took control of the island off Mubata's western shores. Lini proclaims that the majority of Yolenga Island is of Mubatan ethnicity (the true figure would be under 20%), and that they long to be reunited with their brothers and sisters on the mainland. It is the destiny of this generation to finally right this Imperialist wrong and return Yolenga Island to the fold.
More rallies and mob demonstrations in the streets of Karalaga, Tenipako and Yaweto become violently anti-Nalayan and anti-Ossorian. Effigies of Protector Khavar T'avish and High Queen Tara Silven are burned. Inexplicably, the effigies wear the masks of Jay Leno and Angela Merkel.
The newly refurbished ships of the Mubatan Navy begin maneuvers between Yolenga Island and the Western coast.
3 Weeks Prior To YL Event
Papa Lini makes another rousing speech from the Presidential Palace balcony proclaiming the liberation of Yolenga is at hand. He goes on another anti-Ossorian rant but tones down the anti-Nalayan rhetoric.
Call ups of reserves and loosening of conscript restrictions, to bring the Army Regiments to full strength, are enacted. Up to this point, only 3 Regiments have ever remained at constant full strength.
LATER THAT MORNING
Papa Lini sat with some of his advisers and Ministers, plus General Etomo Nkoro, the Commander that would lead the Mubatan expedition to retake Yolenga. General Dzolema, the overall military commander in chief, was away inspecting and congratulating his units in the East on their recent victory against the rebels. Nkoro often acted as his second in command.
They were in a conference room of the Operations Center that had served the Fazembes for decades. It was from this very room that they had orchestrated for weeks, the final push that broke the back of the MFM insurgency.
He sat enjoying a snifter of brandy and a local made cigar, one of the major exports of Mubata. He had just enjoyed a large meal, which helped to maintain his large girth and he could visibly be seen going through the effects of digestion. He was no longer trying to hide his belches.
“...Anyway, Mr. President, I wish you had not announced the liberation so soon. I’ve asked you before if we could tone down the rhetoric so as not to alert the Ossorians and you have instead turned it up. I can’t...”
The Minister of Foreign Affairs broke in,
“I wouldn’t worry about that.” He laughed, “No one follows what goes on in Mubata, outside of Mubata. Even if some report were to make it to them, do you really think they would bother to read it, let alone worry about us down here? They will just see it as a lot of hot air...We’re safe from attention.”
Papa Lini waved his hand, glossing over the ‘hot air’ implication from the Minister.
“Yes, that is probably true, but after the liberation, they will take notice that we are a power to contend with.” He said it with pride.
General Nkoro spread his hands flat on the table.
“Beg your pardon, Mr. President, but I thought the whole point was that this whole operation would slip under the Ossorian radar. That we wouldn’t make a big spectacle of it and they wouldn’t care to try to retake the Island. The less damage done, the more that is possible.”
The Foreign Affairs Minister nodded,
“Mmhhmm. That is true. The Ossorians don’t seem to care much what goes on with Raithir...What they call the Island. They barely remember it exists. I think we can send their Governor and staff packing and it will be less bureaucracy and infrastructure they will have to worry about budgeting. They will be secretly grateful.”
Nkoro squinted his eyes at the Minister.
“You do realize they have a garrison on the island, plus some other military hardware. At least a company’s worth of men. They aren’t going to just wave a white flag and jump on the first plane out...It may become a matter of honor as we will most certainly hand them a defeat...Initially, anyway. The Ossorians are not used to being defeated, especially by an attack from the sea. Especially after we have rubbed their noses in it, also. Coming from a smaller power such as ourselves, that will be the final insult to them. They may take up the gauntlet and not let it go unchallenged. We haven’t even covered a possible Nalayan reaction.”
The Nalayans had a substantial population on the southern portion of the Island, as well. With their civil war coming to full boil and being focused on internal matters, it was doubtful that they would react at all, but he felt it needed to be a factor considered.
Lini Fazembe put his cigar and snifter down and folded his hands.
“I chose you, Etomo, to lead the liberation because I have faith that you will get the job done. Once you defeat them. And you will defeat them...Then you will fortify the island and we will fly or ship over whatever you will need. If they decide to retake Yolenga, they will have to fight for every bloody centimeter of it. They will tire of the exercise and go home.” He grabbed the cigar again and waved his hand,
“Besides, we have mighty powerful friends that will back us.”
The Minister smiled, but looked slightly uneasy. When he had contacted his opposite at the Shalumite ministry, he had been told the Shalumites most vehemently opposed any move made to retake the Island, and then the Shalumite Foreign Affairs Minister proceeded to list every way it was a horrible idea to rattle sabers against the Ossorians. In practicality, the Shalumites were gearing up to aid a faction in Nalaya, and wouldn't be able to lend much backing support to the Mubatans on Yolenga, even if they wanted to. However, the Minister was never one to counter the grandeur wishes of Papa Lini with such inconvenient facts. He kept his mouth shut.
Lini went on.
“I have other matters to attend to, and you, General, have final preparations to take care of...”
“I do, indeed.”
“So we shall part ways. We are on the eve of a great victory for the Mubatan people. I cannot wait to celebrate it. I want plenty of pictures.” With that, the large man scooped up his snifter and with barely a nod, started to amble out his special entrance of the planning room of the Operations Center.
The Interior Minister felt he needed to add in his bit.
“What an adventure for us! We can finally be equals at the Tyran table.”
Nkoro began to stand up.
“You do understand that we will not be able to stand up to the Ossorian might, should they turn their full military machine upon us?”
“And you realize, that even if this ends in defeat, we can beg aid and reparations from the Ossorians?”
“From the very people we attacked? Yes, that sounds like a...solid plan.” He exuded sarcasm.
Kwazema, Lini’s right hand man and officially the Prime Minister, had been silent up to this point, but now chose to speak,
“Yes. From the Ossorians, from the Shalumites, maybe Cacertans...aid from someone. Either way, we win.
If we win, and they let us hang on to the island, we have increased our resources, and distracted people from the troubles at home with that drought and the inflation. We give them an incredible victory against the region's Goliath. If we lose, then...So be it. The Ossorians will be guilted into not letting us sink into a chaotic morass after destroying our economy. It will be painful for us, sure. They will put military limitations on us, but...We gain financial stability. It’s not the most desirable option, but it could be worse…”
General Nkoro grabbed his headgear and headed to the door, but he shot the Ministers a sideways glance.
“You do not serve either the people or your President well by encouraging such madness.”
He walked out, done with the ludicrous 'Mouse That Roared' scenarios. He tuned out their ineffectual replies to his back as he continued down the hall and out of the Operations Center.