China Will Fail.

[Yorkvale]

the 19th century was dominated by Great Britain, the 20th by the United States, the 21st by..China?

I think not, and in many ways it's cultural.

I believe the main difference in values is rooted in the value of social order. Entrepreneurship is a staple of the United States, and encouraged. While many people in China are generally risk averse and the social norms there discourage entrepreneurship due to being pinned with having a volatile and uncertain lifestyle. This of course leads to one of the biggest problems for China, the lack of innovation. The success of most Chinese firms can be coupled to copying successful foreign business models. This is the answer to the question of why China doesn't have a Steve jobs of its own. Chinese enterprises remain as collective units rather than individualistic firms.

Internet censorship and a generally authoritarian Government remain a constant threat to a liberal business climate and thus prevent china from ever achieving the success of the US. Internet freedom is an essential human right. The global Internet serves as an open platform on which to innovate, learn, organize, and express herself free from undue interference or censorship. The censorship of such an awesome device thus serves as one of big biggest undermining of the marketplace of ideas without which no nation can surely thrive.

Last but not least, the Chinese Government is wasteful. Chinese economists estimate that approximately 6.3 trillion dollars, about 1/4th of the total money spent on infrastructure was wasted.


Thus it is my opinion, due to all of the above, that China will never become a real global power so long as the conformity in Confucianism remains a predominant part of Chinese culture and the communist party remains in power.

The biggest debate in solving this question is a dilemma in conflicting values. Does the world still buy into the Washington consensus? Or are we shifting to the Beijing consensus.

I of course believe the former,but I would love to hear further insights into this discussion.

Also, there are some pretty huge contradicting societal types and roles between the US and China. Which one do you find most relevant in determining their places in the current geopolitical order?

Please discuss and add in or argue ideas.

[The Serbian Empire]

I believe the 21st Century is the Russian Century given Putin's ambitions. It's the same ambitions that lead the US to take a front as a world force with the Spanish-American War in the final years of the 19th Century setting the tone for the century to follow.

[Mefpan]

CHAIRMAN CHENG WILL FAIL, CHINA WILL FALL. DEMOCRACY IS NOT NEGOTIABLE.

That aside, the obligatory "not your blog" applies here, as does "Why does this even matter? It's not like China outpacing America will cause a sudden collapse of all democratic systems across the world and usher in a neo-Maoist dystopia."

[Cetacea]

Great Britain was also rather conservative when it rose to global preeminence

and the fact that China has stayed influential for a couple of millennia (Confucius died 479BC) means that it must have some merit

besides the future is multi-regional, singular superpowers is a thing of the past
(if you want future dystopia then corporate plutocracies are rising not hyper-states)

oh and

Silence will fail

[Yorkvale]

I believe the 21st Century is the Russian Century given Putin's ambitions. It's the same ambitions that lead the US to take a front as a world force with the Spanish-American War in the final years of the 19th Century setting the tone for the century to follow.

Putin is the wrong leader for Russia,and supporting Assad and several other dictators along with the several cultural, economic, and diplomatic failures he has had hardly paints him out to be a solid leader.

His economy is in shambles, he is naturally losing in Ukraine, and his market realignments to the Asian Pacific region have been an utter failure. China pays half the market price for oil than Russia would normally receive at the same time the price of oil is dropping dramatically.

[Conserative Morality]

China's possible failure has more to do with relatively recent policies and the failure to mitigate their effects.

China'll lose some global prominence, but cultural factors aren't the primary cause.

[Yorkvale]

Great Britain was also rather conservative when it rose to global preeminence

and the fact that China has stayed influential for a couple of millennia (Confucius died 479BC) means that it must have some merit

besides the future is multi-regional, singular superpowers is a thing of the past
(if you want future dystopia then corporate plutocracies are rising not hyper-states)

oh and

Silence will fail

The Rise of NGOs (like corporations) can generally be seen as a good thing on the international level. Companies like google contribute to and push for internet freedom and democratic sentiments which has a dramatic impact on global affairs in what I would argue to be a very positive light, social media corporations have pretty much the same narrative and they reveal injustices and encourage market freedom.

Most atrocities in our world can be pinned to the state rather than multinational corporations.

[New Werpland]

Yes, China doesn't have a work ethic geared towards innovation, which the West has. I don't think this will prevent them from being a major power though.

[Baden Baden]

I believe the 21st Century is the Russian Century given Putin's ambitions. It's the same ambitions that lead the US to take a front as a world force with the Spanish-American War in the final years of the 19th Century setting the tone for the century to follow.

Putin is the wrong leader for Russia,and supporting Assad and several other dictators along with the several cultural, economic, and diplomatic failures he has had hardly paints him out to be a solid leader.

His economy is in shambles, he is naturally losing in Ukraine, and his market realignments to the Asian Pacific region have been an utter failure. China pays half the market price for oil than Russia would normally receive at the same time the price of oil is dropping dramatically.

Ja

[Geilinor]

Great Britain was also rather conservative when it rose to global preeminence

and the fact that China has stayed influential for a couple of millennia (Confucius died 479BC) means that it must have some merit

besides the future is multi-regional, singular superpowers is a thing of the past
(if you want future dystopia then corporate plutocracies are rising not hyper-states)

oh and

Silence will fail

The Rise of NGOs (like corporations) can generally be seen as a good thing on the international level. Companies like google contribute to and push for internet freedom and democratic sentiments which has a dramatic impact on global affairs in what I would argue to be a very positive light, social media corporations have pretty much the same narrative and they reveal injustices and encourage market freedom.

Most atrocities in our world can be pinned to the state rather than multinational corporations.

Google pushes for Internet freedom because their business is based on the Internet. Facebook supports market freedom because they were once a small company.

[Replevion]

Chinese people don't innovate? History disagrees.

And Chinese companies have been instrumental in the design and manufacture of basically all the computers in the world for the last few years. Yeah, the US makes the CPUs and GPUs, but all the boards and chassis are designed and assembled in China (PRC and ROC).

Confucian conformism isn't that different from the conformism that underlies most major civilizations. And it was Confucian conformism that created an empire that was richer than Rome. (Moreover, it's Confucian attitudes that makes them some of the hardest core academics in the world. One of the reasons so many Chinese study overseas is because it's so much fucking easier.)

China was the greatest civilization on earth for thousands of years. They're used to it, they're built for it, and they'll do it again. Whether it's this century or another, it'll happen.

[Replevion]

Yes, China doesn't have a work ethic geared towards innovation, which the West has. I don't think this will prevent them from being a major power though.

Yeah, never mind that they invented the pillars of civilization, like paper and gunpowder. Funny thing is, people were saying the same thing about the US in the 19th century when we were copying so many European innovations.

[Yorkvale]

China's possible failure has more to do with relatively recent policies and the failure to mitigate their effects.

China'll lose some global prominence, but cultural factors aren't the primary cause.

I would very much argue the exact opposite, recent policies have a very mixed record,but their growth rate is very hard to argue against. However I will still acknowledge that there is a lot of waste within the system, and internet censorship and the communist party in generally undeniably hinders China's place in global politics. That being said, culture has everything to do with it.

It determines business climates, war sentiments, and diplomacy. There is simply nothing moving about Confucianism and it does not inspire others to do the extraordinary, rather to maintain in stagnant stable conditions. This risk averse philosophy leads to cultural rigidity and lack luster creativity. This is the biggest problem China faces, will they ever rise to be more than simply an industrial nation. Do they have anything to offer the world other than factories and pollution and I would argue the answer is no.

[Transoxthraxia]

Gee, hope so.

[The Serbian Empire]

Yes, China doesn't have a work ethic geared towards innovation, which the West has. I don't think this will prevent them from being a major power though.

Yeah, never mind that they invented the pillars of civilization, like paper and gunpowder. Funny thing is, people were saying the same thing about the US in the 19th century when we were copying so many European innovations.

And then the World Wars happened leaving Europe in ruins while the US from across the sea didn't lose anything more than ships and troops. Vast majority of the American infrastructure was left intact save for the merchant fleet.

[Yorkvale]

Chinese people don't innovate? History disagrees.

And Chinese companies have been instrumental in the design and manufacture of basically all the computers in the world for the last few years. Yeah, the US makes the CPUs and GPUs, but all the boards and chassis are designed and assembled in China (PRC and ROC).

Confucian conformism isn't that different from the conformism that underlies most major civilizations. And it was Confucian conformism that created an empire that was richer than Rome. (Moreover, it's Confucian attitudes that makes them some of the hardest core academics in the world. One of the reasons so many Chinese study overseas is because it's so much fucking easier.)

China was the greatest civilization on earth for thousands of years. They're used to it, they're built for it, and they'll do it again. Whether it's this century or another, it'll happen.

The first item on the list was a crossbow, cute for early civilization hardly applicable in the 21st century.

However my point isn't that china cannot or does not innovate, there are many companies that defy the norms and they are incredibly productive and innovative companies my argument is not that they don't exist, it's that they aren't the norm.

China currently ranks number 21 in global innovation despite being the second largest economy in the world.

That is sad. Plain and simple. Falsified academic research is rampant in China and they have incredibly loose patent laws, despite these patent laws the US still out patents China 2 to 1.

The vast majority of enterprises are state owned and simply have nothing to offer to the rest of the world that we haven't already thought of or are already doing.

[Yorkvale]

The Rise of NGOs (like corporations) can generally be seen as a good thing on the international level. Companies like google contribute to and push for internet freedom and democratic sentiments which has a dramatic impact on global affairs in what I would argue to be a very positive light, social media corporations have pretty much the same narrative and they reveal injustices and encourage market freedom.

Most atrocities in our world can be pinned to the state rather than multinational corporations.

Google pushes for Internet freedom because their business is based on the Internet. Facebook supports market freedom because they were once a small company.

Regardless their motives (which we can't really pin to them, really) they are still doing it, and it is benefiting everyone and not just a small elite oligarch. You'll find wealth disparity much more a problem in regimes like russia and china than in the US.

[Replevion]

China's possible failure has more to do with relatively recent policies and the failure to mitigate their effects.

China'll lose some global prominence, but cultural factors aren't the primary cause.

I would very much argue the exact opposite, recent policies have a very mixed record,but their growth rate is very hard to argue against. However I will still acknowledge that there is a lot of waste within the system, and internet censorship and the communist party in generally undeniably hinders China's place in global politics. That being said, culture has everything to do with it.

It determines business climates, war sentiments, and diplomacy. There is simply nothing moving about Confucianism and it does not inspire others to do the extraordinary, rather to maintain in stagnant stable conditions. This risk averse philosophy leads to cultural rigidity and lack luster creativity. This is the biggest problem China faces, will they ever rise to be more than simply an industrial nation. Do they have anything to offer the world other than factories and pollution and I would argue the answer is no.

You're talking about a country that had the largest city on earth before the 19th century. A country that produced the largest ships on earth in the same timeframe. China is quite extraordinary. And nothing to offer? Chinese culture is rich and deep and as compelling, if not moreso, than the European culture that has fed the current world monoculture. Which is why Chinese movies are breaking out, and I think Chinese music may break out soon, and Chinese food is world renowned.

[Replevion]

Yeah, never mind that they invented the pillars of civilization, like paper and gunpowder. Funny thing is, people were saying the same thing about the US in the 19th century when we were copying so many European innovations.

And then the World Wars happened leaving Europe in ruins while the US from across the sea didn't lose anything more than ships and troops. Vast majority of the American infrastructure was left intact save for the merchant fleet.

Wrong century, homey.

[Palakistan]

Well, China and America is intertwined economically. So if one falls, the other will too.

[Grand Britannia]

Chinese people don't innovate? History disagrees.

And Chinese companies have been instrumental in the design and manufacture of basically all the computers in the world for the last few years. Yeah, the US makes the CPUs and GPUs, but all the boards and chassis are designed and assembled in China (PRC and ROC).

Confucian conformism isn't that different from the conformism that underlies most major civilizations. And it was Confucian conformism that created an empire that was richer than Rome. (Moreover, it's Confucian attitudes that makes them some of the hardest core academics in the world. One of the reasons so many Chinese study overseas is because it's so much fucking easier.)

China was the greatest civilization on earth for thousands of years. They're used to it, they're built for it, and they'll do it again. Whether it's this century or another, it'll happen.

The first item on the list was a crossbow, cute for early civilization hardly applicable in the 21st century.

However my point isn't that china cannot or does not innovate, there are many companies that defy the norms and they are incredibly productive and innovative companies my argument is not that they don't exist, it's that they aren't the norm.

China currently ranks number 21 in global innovation despite being the second largest economy in the world.

That is sad. Plain and simple. Falsified academic research is rampant in China and they have incredibly loose patent laws, despite these patent laws the US still out patents China 2 to 1.

The vast majority of enterprises are state owned and simply have nothing to offer to the rest of the world that we haven't already thought of or are already doing.

I'll give it to you that China sucks at innovating in recent times, but they were very advanced in past eras.

The Dynasties, anyways, not the PRC.

[Jute]

As a side note, crossbows are actually still used today.

I would very much argue the exact opposite, recent policies have a very mixed record,but their growth rate is very hard to argue against. However I will still acknowledge that there is a lot of waste within the system, and internet censorship and the communist party in generally undeniably hinders China's place in global politics. That being said, culture has everything to do with it.

It determines business climates, war sentiments, and diplomacy. There is simply nothing moving about Confucianism and it does not inspire others to do the extraordinary, rather to maintain in stagnant stable conditions. This risk averse philosophy leads to cultural rigidity and lack luster creativity. This is the biggest problem China faces, will they ever rise to be more than simply an industrial nation. Do they have anything to offer the world other than factories and pollution and I would argue the answer is no.

You're talking about a country that had the largest city on earth before the 19th century. A country that produced the largest ships on earth in the same timeframe. China is quite extraordinary. And nothing to offer? Chinese culture is rich and deep and as compelling, if not moreso, than the European culture that has fed the current world monoculture. Which is why Chinese movies are breaking out, and I think Chinese music may break out soon, and Chinese food is world renowned.

Have any links to good songs/genres?

[Replevion]

Chinese people don't innovate? History disagrees.

And Chinese companies have been instrumental in the design and manufacture of basically all the computers in the world for the last few years. Yeah, the US makes the CPUs and GPUs, but all the boards and chassis are designed and assembled in China (PRC and ROC).

Confucian conformism isn't that different from the conformism that underlies most major civilizations. And it was Confucian conformism that created an empire that was richer than Rome. (Moreover, it's Confucian attitudes that makes them some of the hardest core academics in the world. One of the reasons so many Chinese study overseas is because it's so much fucking easier.)

China was the greatest civilization on earth for thousands of years. They're used to it, they're built for it, and they'll do it again. Whether it's this century or another, it'll happen.

The first item on the list was a crossbow, cute for early civilization hardly applicable in the 21st century.

However my point isn't that china cannot or does not innovate, there are many companies that defy the norms and they are incredibly productive and innovative companies my argument is not that they don't exist, it's that they aren't the norm.

China currently ranks number 21 in global innovation despite being the second largest economy in the world.

That is sad. Plain and simple. Falsified academic research is rampant in China and they have incredibly loose patent laws, despite these patent laws the US still out patents China 2 to 1.

The vast majority of enterprises are state owned and simply have nothing to offer to the rest of the world that we haven't already thought of or are already doing.

And Hong Kong, which is more culturally Chinese than China itself thanks to the lack of baggage from the communist purges, ranks 10th. Also in the innovation index rankings the ROC isn't broken out (which is bullshit) but I would be surprised if it weren't higher still, since that's where 90% of the world's laptops are designed.

There are plenty of modern inventions on that list, and you're blithely ignoring them.

[Geilinor]

Chinese people don't innovate? History disagrees.

And Chinese companies have been instrumental in the design and manufacture of basically all the computers in the world for the last few years. Yeah, the US makes the CPUs and GPUs, but all the boards and chassis are designed and assembled in China (PRC and ROC).

Confucian conformism isn't that different from the conformism that underlies most major civilizations. And it was Confucian conformism that created an empire that was richer than Rome. (Moreover, it's Confucian attitudes that makes them some of the hardest core academics in the world. One of the reasons so many Chinese study overseas is because it's so much fucking easier.)

China was the greatest civilization on earth for thousands of years. They're used to it, they're built for it, and they'll do it again. Whether it's this century or another, it'll happen.

The first item on the list was a crossbow, cute for early civilization hardly applicable in the 21st century.

However my point isn't that china cannot or does not innovate, there are many companies that defy the norms and they are incredibly productive and innovative companies my argument is not that they don't exist, it's that they aren't the norm.

China currently ranks number 21 in global innovation despite being the second largest economy in the world.

That is sad. Plain and simple. Falsified academic research is rampant in China and they have incredibly loose patent laws, despite these patent laws the US still out patents China 2 to 1.

The vast majority of enterprises are state owned and simply have nothing to offer to the rest of the world that we haven't already thought of or are already doing.

Innovation is not related to economic size - there's lots of innovation coming out of small countries.

[Yorkvale]

The first item on the list was a crossbow, cute for early civilization hardly applicable in the 21st century.

However my point isn't that china cannot or does not innovate, there are many companies that defy the norms and they are incredibly productive and innovative companies my argument is not that they don't exist, it's that they aren't the norm.

China currently ranks number 21 in global innovation despite being the second largest economy in the world.

That is sad. Plain and simple. Falsified academic research is rampant in China and they have incredibly loose patent laws, despite these patent laws the US still out patents China 2 to 1.

The vast majority of enterprises are state owned and simply have nothing to offer to the rest of the world that we haven't already thought of or are already doing.

And Hong Kong, which is more culturally Chinese than China itself thanks to the lack of baggage from the communist purges, ranks 10th. Also in the innovation index rankings the ROC isn't broken out (which is bullshit) but I would be surprised if it weren't higher still, since that's where 90% of the world's laptops are designed.

There are plenty of modern inventions on that list, and you're blithely ignoring them.

I'm not ignoring them or downplaying their existence. The Chinese have innovated and that's why they're not 60 on the list, what I am saying is that their innovations do not match or have the potential to match those of western society and certainly not those of the US. They are comparatively minuscule but that is not to say that they themselves are minuscule.

Hong Kong acts and is Governed individually from China and they in many ways are the anti-thesis of china. In terms of policy, in terms of business climate, etc.