by Kelinfort » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:01 pm
by Wisconsin9 » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:07 pm
Soselo wrote:It's not possible to devolve any further than this.
by Karlom-Teravanyia » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:08 pm
Soselo wrote:It's not possible to devolve any further than this.
by Karlom-Teravanyia » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:09 pm
Merizoc wrote:Socialism will prevail. At some point. I think.
by Benuty » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:11 pm
by Wisconsin9 » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:12 pm
by Arlenton » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:29 pm
Kelinfort wrote:Wiki Defintion
A common aspect in political science is the notion of a realigning election. This basically represents a shift in political viewpoints in major parties and their perception by the people. Between these elections exist so called "party systems"; that is, the general atmosphere of the political climate between realignments. For instance, the 1896 presidential election brought Republicans closer to pro business conservatism, while the Democratic Party shifted towards liberalism. The fourth party system was dominated by conservatism and Republican presidents. The 1932 presidential represented another realigning election, as the nation moved closer to modern liberalism. This ushered in a period of labour union growth and a general shift towards economic regulation and social liberalism. The sixth party system began between 1968/1980. Many political scientists debate whether either of these can be considered realigning elections, but I do consider the 1980 election to be a defining realigning election for American Conservatism. This period is (or was) dominated by supply side economics and a rebirth of social conservatism.
It is of much debate when or if another realigning election will occur again. Personally, I believe the sixth party system will crumble within the next two or three election cycles. The national atmosphere has begun to splinter, so it appears such a shift will occur yet again.
So, NSG, what do you think? Are American politics doomed to be dominated by the sixth party system? Or will yet another system arise soon?
by Kelinfort » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:43 pm
Arlenton wrote:Kelinfort wrote:Wiki Defintion
A common aspect in political science is the notion of a realigning election. This basically represents a shift in political viewpoints in major parties and their perception by the people. Between these elections exist so called "party systems"; that is, the general atmosphere of the political climate between realignments. For instance, the 1896 presidential election brought Republicans closer to pro business conservatism, while the Democratic Party shifted towards liberalism. The fourth party system was dominated by conservatism and Republican presidents. The 1932 presidential represented another realigning election, as the nation moved closer to modern liberalism. This ushered in a period of labour union growth and a general shift towards economic regulation and social liberalism. The sixth party system began between 1968/1980. Many political scientists debate whether either of these can be considered realigning elections, but I do consider the 1980 election to be a defining realigning election for American Conservatism. This period is (or was) dominated by supply side economics and a rebirth of social conservatism.
It is of much debate when or if another realigning election will occur again. Personally, I believe the sixth party system will crumble within the next two or three election cycles. The national atmosphere has begun to splinter, so it appears such a shift will occur yet again.
So, NSG, what do you think? Are American politics doomed to be dominated by the sixth party system? Or will yet another system arise soon?
Finally, someone else who pays attention to this!
I agree we are still in the 6th Party system, but in the electoral scene we are stuck in some sort of super polarized system, and it seems to be intensifying. Notice how since 2000 every presidential election has been for the most part pretty close? 2000 was about as close as you can get, 2004 was also impressively close, 2008 is what I want to make my point on, throughout history when a party messes up/gets unpopular (weather or not it was their fault) the opposing party subsequently wins the next election in a massive landslide, but that wasn't the case in 2008, most red states stayed loyal to the part that was blamed for the recession/wars/everything. Sure McCain lost by about 10 million in the popular vote, but he carried 22 states, even with Obama's 50 state strategy. That's almost half, in the past McCain would have won at most 10 states and that's pushing it. And 2012 was fairly close too. 2016 will also be close, even with a Ted Cruz vs Clinton, Cruz will carry at least 18 states.
by SuperFruitland » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:45 pm
Kelinfort wrote:Arlenton wrote:Finally, someone else who pays attention to this!
I agree we are still in the 6th Party system, but in the electoral scene we are stuck in some sort of super polarized system, and it seems to be intensifying. Notice how since 2000 every presidential election has been for the most part pretty close? 2000 was about as close as you can get, 2004 was also impressively close, 2008 is what I want to make my point on, throughout history when a party messes up/gets unpopular (weather or not it was their fault) the opposing party subsequently wins the next election in a massive landslide, but that wasn't the case in 2008, most red states stayed loyal to the part that was blamed for the recession/wars/everything. Sure McCain lost by about 10 million in the popular vote, but he carried 22 states, even with Obama's 50 state strategy. That's almost half, in the past McCain would have won at most 10 states and that's pushing it. And 2012 was fairly close too. 2016 will also be close, even with a Ted Cruz vs Clinton, Cruz will carry at least 18 states.
The way I see it, there will be a major economic clash between the Democratic Party nd the Republican Party in the next three election cycles. Social issues and the greater kulturkampf will largely obviate themselves from the political scene over the next few election cycles. They won't appear on the national stage again for a while.
by Estva » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:46 pm
by Islamic State of UKIP » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:48 pm
by Arlenton » Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:00 pm
Islamic State of UKIP wrote:Yes, if the Democrats manage to win the House in 2016 that would be the final nail in the coffin of the current political system. The Tea Party pushed many against the Republicans and Reagan-style conservativism towards a more Democratic style of conservativism. If the Democrats win the 2016, with Hillary at the helm, they will most likely shift to centre or centre-left which will force the Republican to shift to centre-right and possibly even centre.
by Arlenton » Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:05 pm
Arlenton wrote:Islamic State of UKIP wrote:Yes, if the Democrats manage to win the House in 2016 that would be the final nail in the coffin of the current political system. The Tea Party pushed many against the Republicans and Reagan-style conservativism towards a more Democratic style of conservativism. If the Democrats win the 2016, with Hillary at the helm, they will most likely shift to centre or centre-left which will force the Republican to shift to centre-right and possibly even centre.
It's possible, and I think the GOP shifting a bit toward the center would be nice, but you have to consider the "Whoever has the white male vote has congress" Rule. And thr GOP is making huge gains in white males, to the point of neutralizing the latino vote growth in places such as Texas, which is actually more Republican now than ever. The GOP already has an untouchable majority in the House, if Clinton or any Democrat is elected in 2016, they will surely lose what little power they have left in congress by 2018. The Democrats current electoral college edge will only get them so far.
The most likely shift would be a reverse of the Cold war, Republicans would control congress, with a huge majority in the house and with the senate GOP at least 75% of the time, and Democrats would be winning the white house 75% of the time. That is currently what trends are showing.
by Republic of Wreptzle » Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:14 pm
by Greater Weselton » Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:29 pm
by New Stinkonia » Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:09 pm
Soselo wrote:It's not possible to devolve any further than this.
by Republic of Coldwater » Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:14 pm
by Benuty » Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:27 pm
by Olthar » Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:49 pm
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