Tarrentum has made it to the playoffs with an improvement over last year's ranking - in which they had to win the 15v18 Play-In Series. The Falcons are set to face off against Sarzonia in the Round of 16. If that all sounds familiar, it's becuase the baseball gods have a wicked sense of humour. Just as Quintessence of Dust and Tarrentum were once again in the same group, Tarrentum has to once again face off against the Sarzonian Stars in the Round of 16.
While it's definately a challenge, the Falcons have been playing good ball lately. Especially Dessea Vallena-Favella. I really think she should just be named Ceasarina Dessea - much easier to say. Also, the addition of Norian Ionian as the substitute for Woodrio Tucia was Tiberius Wavi's best move of this whole tournament. While 1 for 4 in three games, Ionian brings the leadership and fielding ability that makes him a great back-up to any of the outfield positions - well, maybe not center field.
So what are we looking at today in the wonderful world of numbers? Run Expectancy!
Run Expectancy (RE) shows the average number of runs scored when in a particular "base/out state." This statistic was developed by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin in: The Book. So what is a base/out state? The first state would be no runners on and no outs; second state would be no runners on and one out; then no runners on and two outs. The fourth state is then a baserunner of 1B with no outs and so on and so forth. Each of these base/out states has a RE associated with it. For reference, the RE for the first state (described above) is .555. This is also (not coincidentally) the league average for Runs per Inning (amazing isn't it?). The 24th state: bases loaded, 2 outs - has a RE of .815. Which means that the average number of runs scored with the bases loaded and 2 outs is .815. This isn't the percentage of a run scoring but the number - huge difference.
So why does this matter? We're able to see, on average, how many runs we can expect from each hitting situation.
So how does the Falcons' last game against New High Charity 24 pan out? Here is each base/out state where Tarrentum scored a run:
2nd Inning: Thomas on 1B, 1 out RE = .573 (2 runs scored)
4th Inning: Gradoni on 2B, 2 outs RE = .344 (1 run scored)
5th Inning: Favella on 1B, 1 out RE = .573 (2 runs scored)
7th Inning: Washini on 1B, 2 outs RE = .251 (1 run scored)
So really, when the Falcons scored their runs against NHC, they did so at an above average rate. Now, if we were to take a look at the last QoD v Tarrentum game, we would see below average numbers. Why? Well Tarrentum didn't perform up to the average - they lost so they would have not beat out their majority of run scoring base/out state Run Expectancy numbers. Totally confused? Don't be, it's a fun stat!
The Falcons have a long time off before their game against Sarzonia, so expect a lot of good practices to get underway. I believe that you might be able to sneak past a couple security guards at KSB - not that I condone such an activity. Only if it gets results!
-Judge-n-Jurri