Tales of Two Horizons OOC-Open

[The Industrial States of Columbia]

In other news, the first post on the invasion of Epirus has been finished, although I'm not too proud of the quality

Dun dun DUN!!!!

[Alleniana]

Columbia, you ought to advertise this on the RP advertisements thread
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=283489

[The Industrial States of Columbia]

Columbia, you ought to advertise this on the RP advertisements thread
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=283489

Sounds goot, I shall post zere ;U;

[Alleniana]

Columbia, you ought to advertise this on the RP advertisements thread
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=283489

Sounds goot, I shall post zere ;U;

we can into famose

[Rudaslavia]

I've corrected the date of my post to 17 April, 1835 (not 17 January; I read the dates wrong).

[The Industrial States of Columbia]

I've corrected the date of my post to 17 April, 1835 (not 17 January; I read the dates wrong).

Illuminati timetravel confirmed

Also, mupdate should be completed

[Conwy-Shire]

Illuminati timetravel confirmed

Also, mupdate should be completed

Two mupdates so far,
the first one took African territory from Catalonia and I + gave a lot of land to Columbia
the second one just gave a lot of land to Columbia

[The Industrial States of Columbia]

Illuminati timetravel confirmed

Also, mupdate should be completed

Two mupdates so far,
the first one took African territory from Catalonia and I + gave a lot of land to Columbia
the second one just gave a lot of land to Columbia

You should still have that land, I must have had a glitch or something, I see the provinces you are talking about in an older map :/

[Conwy-Shire]

You should still have that land, I must have had a glitch or something, I see the provinces you are talking about in an older map :/

"glitch" ? Does this mean that ISC is a robot? it figures I guess

[The Industrial States of Columbia]

You should still have that land, I must have had a glitch or something, I see the provinces you are talking about in an older map :/

"glitch" ? Does this mean that ISC is a robot? it figures I guess

Does not compute... Processing... Processing



I will update the map tomorrow

[Alleniana]

mark Switzerland as owning all Germany on the new map thanks

[The Jonathanian States]

I'm not an expert in bacteriology or stuff, but I believe that alcoholic drinks should actually be less open to spreading disease than water.

Fine, holy water in the most prestigious church. On a side note, there's these soap-dispenser things for holy water in Italy, due to the spread of disease in fonts, it's hilarious.

I already answered this multiple times. An Army that is in Hamburg unhistorically is missing from its historical places and therefore is more likely than not to cause butterflies which we'd have to clean up.

But, as I also already said, this depends on when and how, actually, instead of just throwing out this idea repeatedly.

Swedish king's ship is rammed by Hanseatic vessel because Hanseatic vessel is manned by idiots.

Yeah, I have a few issues with that. Let's start with the Swedish king sailing on a single vessel rather than within a fleet, which would prevent the Hanseatics from ramming him rather than a generic ship.
Then there's the fact that even if he's on a lone ship I'd assume it should carry his standard, showing the Hanseatic ship to stay away, as well as that they probably would explicitly order the Hanseatic ship away because it's a bloody lone ship with their king on it.
Also, I'm not sure of that idiot part either

Hansa refuses to pay up.

A few issues.
Let's start with there being no Hansa as we know it except for the shot confederation (thanks Paradox). It was less Germany and more European Union.
That's part of the trouble with actually having it be a state later in history. Anyway, my point being that neither does the Hansa have its own ships (which would refer to above, but I suppose any ship from within the League can be classified as a Hanseatic one) nor would the league decide on or even refuse that payment.

Swedish king leads punitive raid,

Sure. So he sends his ships/troops to raid, say, Hamburg.
Wait, to do so he requires at least the benevolence or cooperation of either the Dukes of Mecklenburg, the Patricians of Lübeck and then the count(?) of Lauenburg, the Kings of Denmark, or the ruler of both Schleswig and Holstein.
Depending on when exactly we are the first's rivalry with the fourth is likely to make him pro-Hanseatic, as often is the case with the fifth, while the second definitely is more pro-Hamburg than pro-Sweden and therefore voids the third, the fourth while being an ardent rival of the Hanseatic cities has a rivalry even greater with Sweden, letting me safely doubt he'd cooperate with its king.
Anyway, it's bloody hard for me to operate on this general scale because the above change and vary by time so I'd rather appreciate you deciding on a time so that I can try and be more accurate rather than having to put broader speculation.

Swedish king is also a little bit insane.

That sounds like reason for a regency....

Occurs in some peaceful era of history.

Great. You replace peace with war. There's no way that can have any implications, right? Right? Danish seizing the moment? Russians seizing the moment? Internal nobles seiying the moment? Other rebels? The usage funds for that war meaning that the next (historical) war can only be fought to a lesser(unhistorical) extent?

Or, we put it in any of the following
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category: ... tic_League
I'm sure there's a historically irrelevant war in there somewhere, with no effects other than some dead people and a bit of money changing hands.

Well, we have a few wars with Lübeck involved, but only one with Hamburg in it.
I'll start with that one and then go to the ones involving Lübeck.
The war we are interested in now is the Dano-Hanseatic war.
I have actually read and written quite a bit 'bout this one, seeing as IIRC it has one of the main PODs for my Great Hanseatic TL.
The main problem with your idea in this war is that Sweden has no king. At least, no Swedish King with that as "primary" title. Sweden is ruled by Denmark, specifically by Queen Philippa and then King Eric.
Amusingly, in this one war involving Hamburg Lübeck historically still is the leading hanseatic city so targeting it rather than Lübeck is rather silly.
That aside either of those could lead to a Hanseatic defeat, which will definitely lead to butterflies at least in the history of the Hanseatic cities that historically gained from the war and might change the position of denmark relative to future things, but I'm too lazy to check whether it would.
But back the Hansa. In this war they gained/restored trading priviliges which ensured their continuation as a relevant trading force.
Without those you have opened the Baltic to English and dutch trade earlier, with a good possibility of permanently destroying the league. GG.

Hamburg, at least, is fortified since quite a long time ago. Surprise really is not going to be enough to capture the city without casualties that would weaken that army unhistorically.

A barrel of tar spills, the gatehouse burns, it was being repaired at the time and a part collapses, king sends in shock troops at the breach.

Unless you do mean a POD during the era in which the Hanseatic walls were made out of even this tar spilling should mean that except for this gatehouse-in-repair fortifications stand. If an enemy is at the gates which are in disrepair you while have stationed pikemen or whatever behind it. Hamburg would probably fall, but to an assault probably no less costly than were the gate intact.
I'd also argue that you have to get that gate broken exactly in that time, but seeing as you have no issues with handwaving....

You'd have to get that revolt to happen. And then succeed. And then not be crushed by the neighbors.
I don't know why all revolts in history happened or did not, but the fact is that I know of no revolt that happened specifically in Hamburg and that the 1848 uprisings in Hamburg were unsuccessful as such.

Black Death; some local strain hits a Hanseatic city, so everyone is afraid to go near it. Scaremongering, rumours and minstrels or whatever help to spread tales that the nobility are behind it. Captain of guard dies or something, same day, lynch mob forms.

Let's start with saying that the Black death hit in 1350 and killed half of the population OTL (or more).
It was at the same time as much of the region, and I doubt both there being a local strain specifically in Hamburg and the fact it would be known and therefore cause people from within the region afflicted at the same time to stay away from Hamburg especially.
But ok, let's look at the rest of the things taking this as one as granted.
You have the good patricians of Hamburg accused of spreading the plague that has terrorized europe for roughly three years, at this point? Yeah, no.
But even if that were to happen. Somehow. And the people believe it enough to form a lynch mob... Aaaaand of course the Captain of the guards has to die as well.
What a nice coincidence. Now, then we rely on the mod overwhelming unled guards, something which I could be possible. Of course this is before the confederation of cologne or before the first Hansetag, meaning that Hamburg lacks the class of merchants that would request such trading privileges as were discussed there. And if those were to be replaced by commoners would the other cities cooperate?
If you answer yes to this, then sure, you've probably democratized Hamburg. Unless those new merchants learn from history and the other cities, of course.
Have you made it more open to forming a single state with the other cities? Doubt that.

In all honesty, I did not expect you to stoop to the level of those. Of random events. I even think I sort of am disappointed. Also, I really don't see any occasion for all of the Patricians being on a single ship during times that such an event could have none of them survive.

What do you mean? You weren't in NI, I suppose. Balconies are my favourite.

Until now I always considered that a shame. Suddenly I'm really glad I wasn't involved in it.

They're summoned to a meeting in a hall on an issue, because there's so many of them the structural integrity is damaged (stomping feet and all that) and it collapses, the only survivor/s is reformist, or nobody survives.

Except that until 1842 the city hall/parliament/senate all were located in a building built in 1292.
And even then it stopped serving as city hall because it was blown to bits to help stop the spread of the Great Hamburg fire.
QED, that building is bloody stable.
I could check if there was something before that, but I'd say you'd be edging butterflying away Hamburgian participation in the League at that point.

Once again, perhaps scary tales prevent conservatives from coming in, because they're scared. At least, fewer of them.

So fewer or no conservatives go there, meaning that either nothing happens or only reformists die?
An omen!
You probably meant something else, but I've got no idea.

Or, there's a festival, some kind of celebration or something, same sort of thing; falling wall or balcony or fire that spreads around the venue. And so forth.

A ruler from amongst the patricians?
Or somebody from outside? Both cases to an extent raise the question of if that ruler is publicly known as insane why are his orders still carried through....

Perhaps from before the Hansa,

In Hamburg the council seems to have been given legislative powers in 1292 though there's indication of some aristocratic council existing in both Hamburgs as early as 1190.

or in some interrepublic (opposite of interregnum?).

Why would it do that? On what basis? You already proposed this, specifically with Napoleon, and I already told you that you have to provide an actual reason for this to be done.

With Napoleon, I'd say expelled.

Then I see no reason for the Viennese Congress not to either revoke that, a la Switzerland, or to annex those cities into say Hannover or other larger states.
Unless you change Napoleon being defeated.....

And, frankly, if it was with Napoleon, that wouldn't be hard either.
"Oh no, Emperor, *insert heartthrob story where the Hanseatic patricians are the bad guys*"
"Sacre bleu! Expel them!"
And it's done.

Yeah, I doubt that's the case.
But heck, see above.

Proper reasons aren't needed for small actions, when they could happen by chance.

Except expelling a whole class of people without any good basis is not a small action.

For an example, in China, it was often the case that Mao would read off a poster or banner, and just because he said it out loud, it would become a motto. IIRC, communes happened somewhat like that, he said they were good and they popped up all over China overnight.

Source, if you please?

Then you haven't got the Hansa but rather a copy of the Hansa, but fair enough, assuming you do it properly.

I'll be honest and say that I'm rather weak on the pre-Hanseatic governance history so I have no idea on the viability of this. My gut feeling is no, but this could as well be wrong.

Gut feeling is no in what way?

Gut feeling is that this prevention of aristocratic rule in Hamburg is not possible.
EDIT:

mark Switzerland as owning all Germany on the new map thanks

U wot m8?

This discussion about butterflies and Hansa is making me motion-sick, why not just let them exist?

Because I do not see that Hansa as within the boundaries of the possible.

/EDIT

[Alleniana]

Fine, holy water in the most prestigious church. On a side note, there's these soap-dispenser things for holy water in Italy, due to the spread of disease in fonts, it's hilarious.

Swedish king's ship is rammed by Hanseatic vessel because Hanseatic vessel is manned by idiots.

Yeah, I have a few issues with that. Let's start with the Swedish king sailing on a single vessel rather than within a fleet, which would prevent the Hanseatics from ramming him rather than a generic ship.
Then there's the fact that even if he's on a lone ship I'd assume it should carry his standard, showing the Hanseatic ship to stay away, as well as that they probably would explicitly order the Hanseatic ship away because it's a bloody lone ship with their king on it.
Also, I'm not sure of that idiot part either

I meant a ship owned by the Swedish king.

Hansa refuses to pay up.

A few issues.
Let's start with there being no Hansa as we know it except for the shot confederation (thanks Paradox). It was less Germany and more European Union.
That's part of the trouble with actually having it be a state later in history. Anyway, my point being that neither does the Hansa have its own ships (which would refer to above, but I suppose any ship from within the League can be classified as a Hanseatic one) nor would the league decide on or even refuse that payment.

It can be Hamburger, Lubecker, doesn't matter. Just a ship of a thing in the Hansa.

Swedish king leads punitive raid,

Sure. So he sends his ships/troops to raid, say, Hamburg.
Wait, to do so he requires at least the benevolence or cooperation of either the Dukes of Mecklenburg, the Patricians of Lübeck and then the count(?) of Lauenburg, the Kings of Denmark, or the ruler of both Schleswig and Holstein.
Depending on when exactly we are the first's rivalry with the fourth is likely to make him pro-Hanseatic, as often is the case with the fifth, while the second definitely is more pro-Hamburg than pro-Sweden and therefore voids the third, the fourth while being an ardent rival of the Hanseatic cities has a rivalry even greater with Sweden, letting me safely doubt he'd cooperate with its king.
Anyway, it's bloody hard for me to operate on this general scale because the above change and vary by time so I'd rather appreciate you deciding on a time so that I can try and be more accurate rather than having to put broader speculation.

You can decide the time that's most likely for it, I don't know.

Swedish king is also a little bit insane.

That sounds like reason for a regency....

A little bit.

Occurs in some peaceful era of history.

Great. You replace peace with war. There's no way that can have any implications, right? Right? Danish seizing the moment? Russians seizing the moment? Internal nobles seiying the moment? Other rebels? The usage funds for that war meaning that the next (historical) war can only be fought to a lesser(unhistorical) extent?

Yes, because in the meantime, we could have a shipwreck or a better harvest than IRL due to a fruit fly jumping on one wagon or another or something, nullifying any losses from said war, because it wouldn't be a very big one.

Or, we put it in any of the following
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category: ... tic_League
I'm sure there's a historically irrelevant war in there somewhere, with no effects other than some dead people and a bit of money changing hands.

Well, we have a few wars with Lübeck involved, but only one with Hamburg in it.
I'll start with that one and then go to the ones involving Lübeck.
The war we are interested in now is the Dano-Hanseatic war.
I have actually read and written quite a bit 'bout this one, seeing as IIRC it has one of the main PODs for my Great Hanseatic TL.
The main problem with your idea in this war is that Sweden has no king. At least, no Swedish King with that as "primary" title. Sweden is ruled by Denmark, specifically by Queen Philippa and then King Eric.
Amusingly, in this one war involving Hamburg Lübeck historically still is the leading hanseatic city so targeting it rather than Lübeck is rather silly.
That aside either of those could lead to a Hanseatic defeat, which will definitely lead to butterflies at least in the history of the Hanseatic cities that historically gained from the war and might change the position of denmark relative to future things, but I'm too lazy to check whether it would.
But back the Hansa. In this war they gained/restored trading priviliges which ensured their continuation as a relevant trading force.
Without those you have opened the Baltic to English and dutch trade earlier, with a good possibility of permanently destroying the league. GG.

Possibility of. Instead, English happen to pay more attention to Brazil, which they did, and the Dutch also pay more attention to, for example, Australia, which they did.

Hamburg, at least, is fortified since quite a long time ago. Surprise really is not going to be enough to capture the city without casualties that would weaken that army unhistorically.

A barrel of tar spills, the gatehouse burns, it was being repaired at the time and a part collapses, king sends in shock troops at the breach.

Unless you do mean a POD during the era in which the Hanseatic walls were made out of even this tar spilling should mean that except for this gatehouse-in-repair fortifications stand. If an enemy is at the gates which are in disrepair you while have stationed pikemen or whatever behind it. Hamburg would probably fall, but to an assault probably no less costly than were the gate intact.
I'd also argue that you have to get that gate broken exactly in that time, but seeing as you have no issues with handwaving....[/quote]
Architectually odd, I grant you. Instead, tar spill and ensuing fire, or gunpowder barrel goes off inside the gatehouse due to improper storage, or something of that nature.

Black Death; some local strain hits a Hanseatic city, so everyone is afraid to go near it. Scaremongering, rumours and minstrels or whatever help to spread tales that the nobility are behind it. Captain of guard dies or something, same day, lynch mob forms.

Let's start with saying that the Black death hit in 1350 and killed half of the population OTL (or more).
It was at the same time as much of the region, and I doubt both there being a local strain specifically in Hamburg and the fact it would be known and therefore cause people from within the region afflicted at the same time to stay away from Hamburg especially.
But ok, let's look at the rest of the things taking this as one as granted.
You have the good patricians of Hamburg accused of spreading the plague that has terrorized europe for roughly three years, at this point? Yeah, no.
But even if that were to happen. Somehow. And the people believe it enough to form a lynch mob... Aaaaand of course the Captain of the guards has to die as well.
What a nice coincidence. Now, then we rely on the mod overwhelming unled guards, something which I could be possible. Of course this is before the confederation of cologne or before the first Hansetag, meaning that Hamburg lacks the class of merchants that would request such trading privileges as were discussed there. And if those were to be replaced by commoners would the other cities cooperate?
If you answer yes to this, then sure, you've probably democratized Hamburg. Unless those new merchants learn from history and the other cities, of course.
Have you made it more open to forming a single state with the other cities? Doubt that.

A strain of, not the main Black Death. This is either before or after the actual Black Death; basically, disease sweeps through city, kills captain of guard, fearmongering provokes mob to revolt and kill the main patrician lines, significantly weakening their power, and due to fear of the disease/the mob, people are more hesitant than would be expected in taking up the roles of the old patricians, meaning a small power vacuum is filled by constitutionally peasanty shit.

What do you mean? You weren't in NI, I suppose. Balconies are my favourite.

Until now I always considered that a shame. Suddenly I'm really glad I wasn't involved in it.

Suit yourself, I've noticed a proliferation of random events in RPs since NI.

They're summoned to a meeting in a hall on an issue, because there's so many of them the structural integrity is damaged (stomping feet and all that) and it collapses, the only survivor/s is reformist, or nobody survives.

Except that until 1842 the city hall/parliament/senate all were located in a building built in 1292.
And even then it stopped serving as city hall because it was blown to bits to help stop the spread of the Great Hamburg fire.
QED, that building is bloody stable.
I could check if there was something before that, but I'd say you'd be edging butterflying away Hamburgian participation in the League at that point.

The hall is built differently because the architect who designed it slipped and bumped his head drinking mead one evening.

Once again, perhaps scary tales prevent conservatives from coming in, because they're scared. At least, fewer of them.

So fewer or no conservatives go there, meaning that either nothing happens or only reformists die?
An omen!
You probably meant something else, but I've got no idea.

As in, due to folktales, conservatives are more wary of immigrating, leaving the power vacuum to be filled by less conservative locals of the classes that didn't die.

Or, there's a festival, some kind of celebration or something, same sort of thing; falling wall or balcony or fire that spreads around the venue. And so forth.

Perhaps from before the Hansa,

In Hamburg the council seems to have been given legislative powers in 1292 though there's indication of some aristocratic council existing in both Hamburgs as early as 1190.

or in some interrepublic (opposite of interregnum?).

With Napoleon, I'd say expelled.

Then I see no reason for the Viennese Congress not to either revoke that, a la Switzerland, or to annex those cities into say Hannover or other larger states.
Unless you change Napoleon being defeated.....

Because the expelled people are all over Europe and don't feel like coming back, and even if they did, they couldn't restore the old order entirely, because the people have got a taste of things without them.

And, frankly, if it was with Napoleon, that wouldn't be hard either.
"Oh no, Emperor, *insert heartthrob story where the Hanseatic patricians are the bad guys*"
"Sacre bleu! Expel them!"
And it's done.

Yeah, I doubt that's the case.
But heck, see above.

It's plausible.

Proper reasons aren't needed for small actions, when they could happen by chance.

Except expelling a whole class of people without any good basis is not a small action.

It is compared to just about everything else in this RP. Which reminds me, another plausible divergence is that due to a stronger China, trade is diverted away from the Hansa, forcing it into instability and culminating in the patricians losing power.

For an example, in China, it was often the case that Mao would read off a poster or banner, and just because he said it out loud, it would become a motto. IIRC, communes happened somewhat like that, he said they were good and they popped up all over China overnight.

Source, if you please?

I'll find it eventually, maybe.

Gut feeling is no in what way?

Gut feeling is that this prevention of aristocratic rule in Hamburg is not possible.

In no way; it would be easy to have a wayward migrating tribe sack the city and have it never become relevant. What may be difficult is retaining Hamburg as it was IRL, sans only the aristocrats.

[Altito Asmoro]

Belgium's open for claim?

[Alleniana]

@Jon, why don't we agree to disagree. Columbia's already ruled, and there doesn't seem to be much point.

[Conwy-Shire]

Belgium's open for claim?

Nusantra's open for godmoding defences
Otherwise there's a note beside Belgium on the roster which applies to you

[Altito Asmoro]

Belgium's open for claim?

Nusantra's open for godmoding defences
Otherwise there's a note beside Belgium on the roster which applies to you

Nusantara's being partitioned. Beside, at that time my college time was eating me up.

Now, I've been freer. A bit.

[Conwy-Shire]

Nusantara's being partitioned. Beside, at that time my college time was eating me up.

Now, I've been freer. A bit.

'Twas banter, Belgium looks quite open

[Altito Asmoro]

Nusantara's being partitioned. Beside, at that time my college time was eating me up.

Now, I've been freer. A bit.

'Twas banter, Belgium looks quite open

By the way you said it before, you sounded like you blamed me for not playing as Nusantara.

I mean, sure you can blamed me for it. I guess that means nobody here want me to go to college, eh?

[The Jonathanian States]

@Jon, why don't we agree to disagree. Columbia's already ruled, and there doesn't seem to be much point.

If Columbia asks me to move this discussion then I shall do so at once.
But I can't accept your offer.

Yeah, I have a few issues with that. Let's start with the Swedish king sailing on a single vessel rather than within a fleet, which would prevent the Hanseatics from ramming him rather than a generic ship.
Then there's the fact that even if he's on a lone ship I'd assume it should carry his standard, showing the Hanseatic ship to stay away, as well as that they probably would explicitly order the Hanseatic ship away because it's a bloody lone ship with their king on it.
Also, I'm not sure of that idiot part either

I meant a ship owned by the Swedish king.

I doubt non-payment over a single ship would lead the Swedish king to lead an endeavor that doubtlessly will cost many times the ship's worth.

A few issues.
Let's start with there being no Hansa as we know it except for the shot confederation (thanks Paradox). It was less Germany and more European Union.
That's part of the trouble with actually having it be a state later in history. Anyway, my point being that neither does the Hansa have its own ships (which would refer to above, but I suppose any ship from within the League can be classified as a Hanseatic one) nor would the league decide on or even refuse that payment.

It can be Hamburger, Lubecker, doesn't matter. Just a ship of a thing in the Hansa.

Yes, yes it does. As I said above, those things would not be a concern of the League. Which leads me to consider the most likely possibility that the league declines aiding the city in question. The city in question might lose it patricians, but that probably means it loses its ties to the league.
Now what?

Sure. So he sends his ships/troops to raid, say, Hamburg.
Wait, to do so he requires at least the benevolence or cooperation of either the Dukes of Mecklenburg, the Patricians of Lübeck and then the count(?) of Lauenburg, the Kings of Denmark, or the ruler of both Schleswig and Holstein.
Depending on when exactly we are the first's rivalry with the fourth is likely to make him pro-Hanseatic, as often is the case with the fifth, while the second definitely is more pro-Hamburg than pro-Sweden and therefore voids the third, the fourth while being an ardent rival of the Hanseatic cities has a rivalry even greater with Sweden, letting me safely doubt he'd cooperate with its king.
Anyway, it's bloody hard for me to operate on this general scale because the above change and vary by time so I'd rather appreciate you deciding on a time so that I can try and be more accurate rather than having to put broader speculation.

You can decide the time that's most likely for it, I don't know.

Except I don't consider it likely in literally ever. And yes, I do mean literally in its proper sense. Should you provide me with a date I'll see what I can do to be more specific.

That sounds like reason for a regency....

A little bit.

A little bit like a reason or a little bit insane?

Great. You replace peace with war. There's no way that can have any implications, right? Right? Danish seizing the moment? Russians seizing the moment? Internal nobles seiying the moment? Other rebels? The usage funds for that war meaning that the next (historical) war can only be fought to a lesser(unhistorical) extent?

Yes, because in the meantime, we could have a shipwreck or a better harvest than IRL due to a fruit fly jumping on one wagon or another or something, nullifying any losses from said war, because it wouldn't be a very big one.

How would a shipwreck nullify any losses?
Also, a harvest are no combat ready men. It is no steel or iron, no rounds of shot or crossbow bolts.
And you say it wouldn't be a big one... that doesn't mean it isn't expensive. Sieges are long and rather expensive, I believe.

Well, we have a few wars with Lübeck involved, but only one with Hamburg in it.
I'll start with that one and then go to the ones involving Lübeck.
The war we are interested in now is the Dano-Hanseatic war.
I have actually read and written quite a bit 'bout this one, seeing as IIRC it has one of the main PODs for my Great Hanseatic TL.
The main problem with your idea in this war is that Sweden has no king. At least, no Swedish King with that as "primary" title. Sweden is ruled by Denmark, specifically by Queen Philippa and then King Eric.
Amusingly, in this one war involving Hamburg Lübeck historically still is the leading hanseatic city so targeting it rather than Lübeck is rather silly.
That aside either of those could lead to a Hanseatic defeat, which will definitely lead to butterflies at least in the history of the Hanseatic cities that historically gained from the war and might change the position of denmark relative to future things, but I'm too lazy to check whether it would.
But back the Hansa. In this war they gained/restored trading priviliges which ensured their continuation as a relevant trading force.
Without those you have opened the Baltic to English and dutch trade earlier, with a good possibility of permanently destroying the league. GG.

Possibility of. Instead, English happen to pay more attention to Brazil, which they did, and the Dutch also pay more attention to, for example, Australia, which they did.

I just noticed that in the haste of writing that original response I didn't write about the wars that did involve Lübeck. A shame. I assume you're not interested in hearing of them?
Anyway, assuming you have the change above(why, though) and let it happen after the Dano-Hanseatic war.....
Well, on one hand the League has no privileges while on the other they'd lack rivals.... I'm actually intrigued in the sense that I have no proper idea of what would happen there.
My assumption from right now is that the League would start retaking control of trade in the area, until it doing so would force the hand of a regional power in breaking it.

Unless you do mean a POD during the era in which the Hanseatic walls were made out of even this tar spilling should mean that except for this gatehouse-in-repair fortifications stand. If an enemy is at the gates which are in disrepair you while have stationed pikemen or whatever behind it. Hamburg would probably fall, but to an assault probably no less costly than were the gate intact.
I'd also argue that you have to get that gate broken exactly in that time, but seeing as you have no issues with handwaving....

Architectually odd, I grant you.

What would be? Also, I noticed I forgot the word wood. in the sentence "... the era in which Hanseatic walls were made out of wood even this tar...."

Instead, tar spill and ensuing fire, or gunpowder barrel goes off inside the gatehouse due to improper storage, or something of that nature.

Well, the former would only work in Hamburg before stone-walls, which I believe is pre-merchant Hamburg. Roughly. Unless you mean it burning the city, in which case I'm not sure why the war is related.
As for the second.... unless you have a nicely placed of barrels across the walls you'd have a gate blown to bits, probably without special troops delegated to holding it.
The main question in that case would be how hard or easy it would be for the attackers to cross the remaining rubble, if it'd be enough for the defenders to relegate troops there and/or to use the rubble defensively, or not.

Let's start with saying that the Black death hit in 1350 and killed half of the population OTL (or more).
It was at the same time as much of the region, and I doubt both there being a local strain specifically in Hamburg and the fact it would be known and therefore cause people from within the region afflicted at the same time to stay away from Hamburg especially.
But ok, let's look at the rest of the things taking this as one as granted.
You have the good patricians of Hamburg accused of spreading the plague that has terrorized europe for roughly three years, at this point? Yeah, no.
But even if that were to happen. Somehow. And the people believe it enough to form a lynch mob... Aaaaand of course the Captain of the guards has to die as well.
What a nice coincidence. Now, then we rely on the mod overwhelming unled guards, something which I could be possible. Of course this is before the confederation of cologne or before the first Hansetag, meaning that Hamburg lacks the class of merchants that would request such trading privileges as were discussed there. And if those were to be replaced by commoners would the other cities cooperate?
If you answer yes to this, then sure, you've probably democratized Hamburg. Unless those new merchants learn from history and the other cities, of course.
Have you made it more open to forming a single state with the other cities? Doubt that.

A strain of, not the main Black Death. This is either before or after the actual Black Death; basically, disease sweeps through city, kills captain of guard, fearmongering provokes mob to revolt and kill the main patrician lines, significantly weakening their power, and due to fear of the disease/the mob, people are more hesitant than would be expected in taking up the roles of the old patricians, meaning a small power vacuum is filled by constitutionally peasanty shit.

As for the strain part.... Ah, I see.
So this would be in addition to the historical black death?

Until now I always considered that a shame. Suddenly I'm really glad I wasn't involved in it.

Suit yourself, I've noticed a proliferation of random events in RPs since NI.

Sure. But I do not recall seeing, in any RP that I was in, something as random.... random as a balcony crashing.

Except that until 1842 the city hall/parliament/senate all were located in a building built in 1292.
And even then it stopped serving as city hall because it was blown to bits to help stop the spread of the Great Hamburg fire.
QED, that building is bloody stable.
I could check if there was something before that, but I'd say you'd be edging butterflying away Hamburgian participation in the League at that point.

The hall is built differently because the architect who designed it slipped and bumped his head drinking mead one evening.

So are you arguing that he finished a city hall in one evening and never seriously looked at it again before it was built or that he did the above during the whole period he worked on the city hall?

So fewer or no conservatives go there, meaning that either nothing happens or only reformists die?
An omen!
You probably meant something else, but I've got no idea.

As in, due to folktales, conservatives are more wary of immigrating, leaving the power vacuum to be filled by less conservative locals of the classes that didn't die.

Conservatives are wary of immigrating into Hamburg because of folk tales of the patricians being behind the black plague? I'm asking because I really want to know I got this right.
But reformists are not?
Do you not think this might lead it to sharing a fate with Dithmarschen and East Frisia?

In Hamburg the council seems to have been given legislative powers in 1292 though there's indication of some aristocratic council existing in both Hamburgs as early as 1190.

Then I see no reason for the Viennese Congress not to either revoke that, a la Switzerland, or to annex those cities into say Hannover or other larger states.
Unless you change Napoleon being defeated.....

Because the expelled people are all over Europe and don't feel like coming back,

So the options are either:
Stay in the place you were expelled to 4 years ago at most, or return to your own home, probably to the home of your ancestors, in which you also would be much more influential/powerful than you currently are.
Heck, everybody who actually was a merchant is nearly guaranteed to desire going there based on the trading privileges of the city, together with its location fit for trade.

and even if they did, they couldn't restore the old order entirely, because the people have got a taste of things without them.

That's why the Rhineland that had seen French rule for relatively long was placed under the absolute monarchy of Prussia and remained there until of Prussia stopped being an absolute monarchy?
That's why the dutch were a republic?
That's why the Italians remained in a national state?
That's why Poland continuously remained independent from the duchy of Warsaw until now?
Oh, wait.

Yeah, I doubt that's the case.
But heck, see above.

It's plausible.

I disagree.

Except expelling a whole class of people without any good basis is not a small action.

It is compared to just about everything else in this RP. Which reminds me, another plausible divergence is that due to a stronger China, trade is diverted away from the Hansa, forcing it into instability and culminating in the patricians losing power.

Could you please explain more?
Because I see no direct link between a stronger china and less Baltic trade. That aside, weakening the Baltic trade weakens the Hanseatic concept and may destroy it in its entirety, depending on when and how.

Source, if you please?

I'll find it eventually, maybe.

I'll be absolutely honest and say that I won't believe this until I see a source for it.

Gut feeling is that this prevention of aristocratic rule in Hamburg is not possible.

In no way; it would be easy to have a wayward migrating tribe sack the city and have it never become relevant.

Nope. It's on the land-route between Baltic and North Sea while also being on the River Elbe. That's a place, I dislike using words like this in a historical context, destined for relevancy.
It might be possible, but it won't be easy. Hamburg was sacked by Vikings, by Danish, by Obotrites, and all of those more than once each, I believe.
Also, assuming with "wayward migrating tribe" you mean the migration period then you might even manage to get roughly OTL Hamburg because Hamburg as we know it didn't develop by then.

What may be difficult is retaining Hamburg as it was IRL, sans only the aristocrats.

Oh, without a doubt it is.

[The Kingdom of Glitter]

Hello all, back from DC. Did I miss anything?

[Jaslandia]

My second IC post is finished. Response to the Neapolitan invasion and a letter to Venice included.

[Alleniana]

@Jon, I'm not particularly interested in continuing; I've got a lot of other stuff to do.

[The Jonathanian States]

My second IC post is finished. Response to the Neapolitan invasion and a letter to Venice included.

y u no answer Prussian banter.

@Jon, I'm not particularly interested in continuing; I've got a lot of other stuff to do.

mhm, I expected as much.

[Liecthenbourg]

My second IC post is finished. Response to the Neapolitan invasion and a letter to Venice included.

y u no answer Prussian banter.

Britain's banter remains ignored as well.

*sends in the RN*