Aw, crap... (AfD beats Merkel in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)

[Novus America]

Not so badly, actually.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... dissipates
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall ... 09d98a994b
Interesting that now it is the center left who are the staunchest defenders of the current global ecnomic and finance system.

It hasn't been long enough to really say anything meaningful about the referendum result. We probably won't get an immediate recession (though the sudden halt in hiring is an issue), but the real point is that nothing about Brexit has actually been implemented yet, and whatever result we do get will hinge on that.

True, but no matter what happens things are likely to get better. Uncertaintity is the thing bussines hates the most.

But even with the uncertainty the gloom and doom has not played out.

[Shetl]

Lir's statement was that Syrians are already educated. For the Middle East (heavily qualified, I know), Syria was a progressive state with good civil rights and a fairly well-educated professional population. After all, it's been stable for decades.

Why do you assume that they just want to "freeload on welfare"?
There's no instant entitlement to welfare, and no-one enjoys being on welfare. It's not "free money" and it's no way to live, in any country.

While I would think most prefer to work, many if not most are unemployable.
http://m.dw.com/en/refugees-not-benefit ... a-19232803
They are less educated than the average German.

Syria might have been better than some othe ME states, but as you admit this is a very low bar. And Syria was still far behind Germany. Whith a horrible education system by western standards, far below the German one.

OTOH blue-collar workplaces in Germany are authoritarian as hell and have a massive mobbing / bullying problem, so the refugees should feel right at home.

[Valaran]

It hasn't been long enough to really say anything meaningful about the referendum result. We probably won't get an immediate recession (though the sudden halt in hiring is an issue), but the real point is that nothing about Brexit has actually been implemented yet, and whatever result we do get will hinge on that.

True, but no matter what happens things are likely to get better.

If we don't get single market access, at one point does it become better?

But even with the uncertainty the gloom and doom has not played out.

Hyperbole is not justified in any circumstances, so it was never going to be doom and gloom. However, once again, nothing has yet materially changed, so I'm not sure why you're treating not nosediving (over nothing) as a success.

Sure inability to speak German or English is a major problem, but they should have been taught those had they gone to an effective college.

Why? There's not too many reasons to speak either in Syria or its environs.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

As long as they don't take over Germany to protect it from homosex-terrorist refugees with goose-stepping conscript legions...

[Wolfmanne2]

I'm happy that the SPD managed to hang on with a higher-then-expected and am not too particularly saddened to see the CDU take a hit. In order to have a hope in heck of a revival, the SPD need to pile on strong regional performances to maintain strongholds and have a base to bounce back from. The SPD is in the same crisis social democracy is in across Europe; it's down, not out.

Welp, at least the Social Democrats came in first, and the NPD is gone for good.

Trust me Liri, you wouldn like the Social Democrats very much if you knew how they roll.

To put it bluntly, I like them, so if you are a big fan of the dogmatic principled left-wing you wouldn't like the SPD.

[The Realist Polities]

Merkel belongs to the 68 generation and therefore her 'right-wing' policies are not very conservative.
Someone who uses state means to pursue ideological ends such as humanitarian interventions or confronting Russia is not conservative.
Then there is the disastrous migrant policy which is more characteristic of some whacky extreme left NGO than of a responsible government.
Someone who abandons nuclear power in favour of more fossil fules and dependency on unfriendly regimes is not conservative.

For the time being she is only fiscally conservative but for the rest, she is now paying the price as she and the leftist elites betrayed their electorate.

[Novus America]

True, but no matter what happens things are likely to get better.

If we don't get single market access, at one point does it become better?

But even with the uncertainty the gloom and doom has not played out.

Hyperbole is not justified in any circumstances, so it was never going to be doom and gloom. However, once again, nothing has yet materially changed, so I'm not sure why you're treating not nosediving (over nothing) as a success.

Sure inability to speak German or English is a major problem, but they should have been taught those had they gone to an effective college.

Why? There's not too many reasons to speak either in Syria or its environs.

Single market acces is not the the be all and end all. Plus the UK has trade deficit with th EU anyways. The EU is not doing well either, it certainly does not lead to good economic growth as it is largely stagnant.

The issue is uncertainty. If it is not going to be part of the EU system people need to know that. They them will adapt. They cannot adapt if they have no idea what is going on though.
Again the fact that even in the time of greatest uncertaintity it is not doing that badly is enouraging.

And English is the defacto international language. It is very useful to know it anywhere. It is probably the single most useful skill you can learn today.

[Arachaea]

It annoys me when people describe Angela Merkel and the CDU as left-wing, when they're widely accepted as being centre or centre-right.

[Valaran]

Single market acces is not the the be all and end all.

No, but to assume its not economically important is laughable.

The issue is uncertainty

.

The issue is so much more. Its also investment levels, FDI, subsidies, immigration trade barriers, confidence, macro-prudential regulation, R&D, etc. It would be utterly myopic and economically illiterate to assume mere uncertainty is the primary factor in the UK's economic future post-Brexit.

And English is the defacto international language.

How much do you travel? Because I'm going to go out on a limb and say I've travelled more, and what I have noticed is that most people don't speak english, and that in many regions, it only gets you so far. Its more international than any other language, but it is by no means universal. You don't need english if you're doing business in many places, and mostly schooling systems don't teach english espcially well (or bother at all). Syrians would have traditionally found other languages more useful, and so there was little need to have English become universal. Teaching all of its students english is not the gauge of a 'good college' as you termed it.

It is very useful to know it anywhere.

Utility is not reflected by education policies of most countries, and its not universally critical.

[Genivaria]

So all it takes for some people to vote for batshit crazy parties is yell 'immigrants' until they do?
The far-right seem to be very skittish and fearful by nature.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

So all it takes for some people to vote for batshit crazy parties is yell 'immigrants' until they do?
The far-right seem to be very skittish and fearful by nature.

They're just scared of the not-Us.

[Nariterrr]

Fuck, the uprising on the right is real.

[Genivaria]

So all it takes for some people to vote for batshit crazy parties is yell 'immigrants' until they do?
The far-right seem to be very skittish and fearful by nature.

They're just scared of the not-Us.

Makes me think of a Frankie Boyle joke.
"There's a Muslim pedophile hiding under your child's bed, vote Conservative."

[Genivaria]

Fuck, the uprising on the right is real.

'Uprising' lol.
I've seen more impressive uprisings from the Libertarians.

[Wolfmanne2]

So all it takes for some people to vote for batshit crazy parties is yell 'immigrants' until they do?
The far-right seem to be very skittish and fearful by nature.

With that attitude the far-right will continue to rise at the left's expense. We have to acknowledge the concerns these people have.

[Genivaria]

So all it takes for some people to vote for batshit crazy parties is yell 'immigrants' until they do?
The far-right seem to be very skittish and fearful by nature.

With that attitude the far-right will continue to rise at the left's expense. We have to acknowledge the concerns these people have.

Ignorant people are afraid of foreigners.
I acknowledge this.

Them buying into lies and bullshit conspiracy theories is on them not on 'the left'.

[Socialist Nordia]

It annoys me when people describe Angela Merkel and the CDU as left-wing, when they're widely accepted as being centre or centre-right.

Merkel is to the left of my views, and commies are also to the left of my views, and so are all of the other parties, therefore CDU, SPD, die linke, and the greens are all just 4 sides of the same coin of the evil neoliberal pro-sharia Marxist neoliberal establishment elite.

[Nariterrr]

It annoys me when people describe Angela Merkel and the CDU as left-wing, when they're widely accepted as being centre or centre-right.

Merkel is center-left, definitely anything to the right.

[Novus America]

Single market acces is not the the be all and end all.

No, but to assume its not economically important is laughable.

The issue is uncertainty

.

The issue is so much more. Its also investment levels, FDI, subsidies, immigration trade barriers, confidence, macro-prudential regulation, R&D, etc. It would be utterly myopic and economically illiterate to assume mere uncertainty is the primary factor in the UK's economic future post-Brexit.

And English is the defacto international language.

How much do you travel? Because I'm going to go out on a limb and say I've travelled more, and what I have noticed is that most people don't speak english, and that in many regions, it only gets you so far. Its more international than any other language, but it is by no means universal. You don't need english if you're doing business in many places, and mostly schooling systems don't teach english espcially well (or bother at all). Syrians would have traditionally found other languages more useful, and so there was little need to have English become universal. Teaching all of its students english is not the gauge of a 'good college' as you termed it.

It is very useful to know it anywhere.

Utility is not reflected by education policies of most countries, and its not universally critical.

Single market comes with big downsides too. And many of the other items you mention go back to uncertainty, though we are getting off topic.

I have traveled quite extensively, literally circumnavigating the world. English gets you by most places. And it is the official language for aviation and shipping amongst other things. IT? Computer programming is in Emglish. Science? Most scientfic research and publication is in English.

Sure you probably do not need English to sell food at a Syrian market, but you do not need college for that either.

Lack of utility was exactly my point. A college degree with no until it will not get you a job. Cleary the Syrians education has not made them very employable in Germany. As they are mostly not working.

Sure teaching English is not the only gauge of a good college. But it would have given them a useful skill, something most do not have.

Plus Syrian colleges are not exactly top ranked. A diploma from a Syrian college is pretty much useless outside of Syria. Not much good to beside it either as the Syrian ecnomy is a complete mess. Might as well teach something useful.

Though this is also why Arabic speakers are better off being resettled in Arabic countries. Instead of going to Germany where they have not been sucessful as they mostly lack the skills to be valuable to the German market.

[Wolfmanne2]

With that attitude the far-right will continue to rise at the left's expense. We have to acknowledge the concerns these people have.

Ignorant people are afraid of foreigners.
I acknowledge this.

Them buying into lies and bullshit conspiracy theories is on them not on 'the left'.

Immigration is clearly bringing economic pressures and social unrest among the German population, the effect is has on the low-income strata of the economy is an issue that has to be acknowledged. A lack of investment and opportunity for people also leads to people finding an issue to settle on, an issue to blame others on and that sector of the population is immigrants. This is why so many in deprived regions, people who would have once backed the SPD or The Left, have become disillusioned and have gone over to the AfD. These people among the working class are the people we should be standing up, instead you'd rather just ignore them.

[Novus America]

Fuck, the uprising on the right is real.

'Uprising' lol.
I've seen more impressive uprisings from the Libertarians.

You are standing on the train tracks. Thinking screaming at the train better than adapting to the circumstances.

[Rio Cana]

Welp, at least the Social Democrats came in first, and the NPD is gone for good.

BERLIN, Sept 4 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats fell to third place in a state election on Sunday behind the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, TV projections showed.

In a stinging defeat for Merkel in her home district one year ahead of federal elections, the upstart AfD won 21.4 percent of the vote in their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by campaigning hard against the chancellor’s policies on refugees, according to a projection by ZDF TV at 1615 GMT.

“This isn’t pretty for us,” said Michael Grosse-Groehmer, one of Merkel’s top deputies in parliament in Berlin in a ZDF TV interview. “Those who voted for the AfD were sending a message of protest.”

The election took place exactly a year after Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees and the discontent in the state was palpable.

“This is a slap in the face for Merkel - not only in Berlin but also in her home state,” said Frauke Petry, co-leader of the AfD. “The voters made a clear statement against Merkel’s disastrous immigration policies. This put her in her place.”

The SPD, which has ruled the rural state on the Baltic coast with the CDU as junior coalition partners since 2006, won 30.2 percent of the vote, down from 35.6 percent in the last election in 2011. The CDU won 19.8 percent, down from 23 percent in 2011, and its worst result ever in the state, the broadcaster said.

The far-left Left Party won 12.5 percent, down from 18.4 percent five years ago, while the pro-environment Greens won 5 percent, down from 8.7 percent. The far-right NPD was knocked out of the state assembly, falling below the 5 percent threshold for the first time since 2006 with 3.2 percent, down from 6 percent in 2011.

Despite losing support, the SPD (24 seats) and the CDU (16) won enough seats to be able to continue their grand coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with the AfD as the second-largest bloc in the 71-seat state assembly with 18 seats. The SPD, which could also form a coalition with the Left and Green parties, said it was leaving its options open.

Voters already punished Merkel in three state elections in March, voting in droves for the AfD and rejecting Merkel’s Christian Democrats.

Founded in 2013, the AfD now has won seats in nine of the 16 state assemblies across the country. However, it has no chance of governing in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern since the other parties have said they would not form a coalition with the party.

The AfD is also making gains nationwide, a new poll showed on Sunday. If the national election were held next week, the AfD would win 12 percent of the vote, making it the third-largest party in Germany, according to a poll conducted by the Emnid institute for the Bild newspaper and published on Sunday.

Merkel, mulling a bid for a fourth term as chancellor, made a last-minute campaign appearance on Saturday in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, warning against the politics of “angst” offered by AfD with its virulent anti-refugee stance.

tl;dr: Merkel's party came in third in the regional elections in her home region of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, surpassed by SPD (her coalition partners) and AfD (the formerly intellectual anti-Euro party that has recently transformed into the screaming-incoherently-about-refugees party).

My two cents: While I don't like Merkel and her party in ideological terms (with their opposition to marriage equality and all), I very much prefer her to the 'diet NPD' that is AfD today. That a sizeable portion of German voters, at least in this region, are supporting this party worries me an awful lot. I understand concerns over Merkel's policies on refugees, but the AfD isn't just anti-immigration. It's a staunchly reactionary party that is also opposed to LGBT+ rights and clean energy, and supports the reinstatement of conscription, which are three huge red flags in a row, as far as I'm concerned.

Your thoughts, NSG? Do you expect this to become a trend with future German elections? Does AfD pose a credible threat to the ruling coalition?

Concening the blue part above, now that is not very democratic. The concerns of those that voted for this party should be discussed and not swept under the rug by the other political parties which are forming a coalition. Forming coalitions to block lesser parties tends to solve nothing.

[Genivaria]

Ignorant people are afraid of foreigners.
I acknowledge this.

Them buying into lies and bullshit conspiracy theories is on them not on 'the left'.

Immigration is clearly bringing economic pressures and social unrest among the German population, the effect is has on the low-income strata of the economy is an issue that has to be acknowledged. A lack of investment and opportunity for people also leads to people finding an issue to settle on, an issue to blame others on and that sector of the population is immigrants. This is why so many in deprived regions, people who would have once backed the SPD or The Left, have become disillusioned and have gone over to the AfD. These people among the working class are the people we should be standing up, instead you'd rather just ignore them.

Well actually no I'm not ignoring anything, it's just that the real solutions being proposed are ignored by the far-right because that would take away their support base.
Because they don't actually care about the problems, they just want to use them to scare people into putting them in power, as they always have.

[Skyviolia]

I thought Germany learned not to let bigots into power... like sixty years ago.

[Wolfmanne2]

'Uprising' lol.
I've seen more impressive uprisings from the Libertarians.

You are standing on the train tracks. Thinking screaming at the train better than adapting to the circumstances.

It has never worked for centre-left or centre-right parties and will never work. That's democracy for you and as long as these parties don't identify and tackle the root causes of these concerns then they will vote for the whomever speak very loudly about them.