US General Election Thread III: Clinton vs. Trump

[Eol Sha]

[ the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.

Oh hey, it's 2012 all over again.

If Clinton wins like the polls say she will then I'm guessing they still won't learn their lesson. Although, some Republicans seem baffled by how distrustful of data their former comrades-in-arms are. Bewildered by the idea that predicating your party's political philosophy on government being evil has backfired on them.

[Ism]

What exactly is a "large" percentage?

Not huge, but enough that it could be interesting. In Brexit it was 8.5%. All Trump would need to win the popular vote would be about 3% composed exclusively of Hillary supporters, but if he achieved 8.5% variation it would be a landslide victory.

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

[Eol Sha]

Oh hey, it's 2012 all over again.

It's not the same. Romney was a standard cookie-cutter republican. Trump is not, Trump is controversial. It was the same deal with Brexit, all the supporters said "The polls are wrong the polls are wrong", and lo and behold the polls were wrong.

The polls were wrong by, essentially, the margin of error+1 or 2. It's not nearly as impressive as you make it out to be.

[Alien Space Bats]

Right down the middle, and use the river as a moat for both sides.

And when the river moves?

[Neo Bavaria]

He's been consistently over 30% for 2 months now, and even passed Clinton during the RNC, at which point he dropped again because suddenly all the major polls except LA Times/USC decided that it was time to "recalculate" how they tallied votes for each candidate.

Even then he's only been in the 30's for, collectively, a month and a half since RCP started collecting polls, and even surpassed Clinton twice. Two weeks ago he switched over to formal speeches instead of rallies and since then he's risen 2 points, and is still rising. If you only use studies that include Johnson and Stein, Trump is 4.5 points behind, and likely will rise.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Americans are overwhelmingly disgusted or repulsed by Donald Trump, and the more Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever, or call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.

Trump's favorability rating has hovered around 35% since September and October of 2015. I looked up RCP's polling average trends specifically so I wouldn't be talking out of my ass. Now, you can question the accuracy of those early polls, but even being down in the mid 30s, which is what I stated in the post (not 30%), for two months isn't a good sign. You can check the data here.

Right. It couldn't be that he's remained incredibly unpopular. No. The polls! They're all rigged! Sarcasm aside, every poll taken after the DNC has had Trump down by at least four points. Some polls have him behind by 10. Those ones are hard to believe, but not inconceivable given the sudden, if low, popularity of the Libertarians. I mean, shit, RCP's average is Clinton up by 6+.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Americans are overwhelmingly disgusted or repulsed by Donald Trump, and the more Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever, or call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.

There is evidence. The polling says so. Now am I saying Hillary Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Americans? No, I'm not. Not by a mile. She's almost as far down as Trump. However, "almost" isn't "the same". She has a decidedly better 42% average favorability. In fact, her favorability levels are well above the nadir she had near the end of the primary and during the RNC. Trump's favorability, on the other hand, has revolved around 35% since October of last year with a brief dip down to the high 20s in April.

Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever,

I've heard her say no such thing. How 'bout a source?

call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.

It's always a touchy subject when racists get called out on their bullshit views. I can't speak for Clinton, but personally, when I look at Trump's crowds, listen to what his supporters have to say, and hear what the big man is pontificating on, yeah, I think most of them are racists. Not in the "hang the niggers by the neck!" way, mind you, although there are certainly some who are like that, but in the "blacks are lazy and Mexicans are job stealing bastards" way. Kind of a partially washed style of racism, y'know? Not as sanitized as that spouted by most Republican politicians, but it ain't all KKK.

Anyway, if that's going to happen it hasn't happened yet. All the signs point towards a Clinton victory in November.

1. Here, try an actual poll instead of just whether or not people like him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5952.html

2. It's absurd-- unless it happens to be true. My favorite is the Reuters that sampled Democrats as 45% of the population and Republicans as 10%.

3. https://youtu.be/kHAlX9a_dfA?t=702

4. Except they don't believe blacks are lazy, they believe that there simply are no jobs available for blacks in the inner cities. They don't believe Latinos steal jobs, they believe illegal immigrants are willing to work for significantly lower wages (which is statistically true) which means that businesses are disincentivized from hiring other workers-- such as blacks or native/legally immigrated Latinos. Not to mention that at the time she gave that speech, Donald Trump was polling at 14% with blacks and over 30% with Latinos, were they racist too?

What's funny is that the same issues Trump brings up liberals have been talking about for years as plaguing the black community, but suddenly when Republicans talk about them they cease to exist.

[Buffoonland]

Right down the middle, and use the river as a moat for both sides.

And when the river moves?

it flows.

[Neo Bavaria]

Not huge, but enough that it could be interesting. In Brexit it was 8.5%. All Trump would need to win the popular vote would be about 3% composed exclusively of Hillary supporters, but if he achieved 8.5% variation it would be a landslide victory.

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

[Arlenton]

Trump's favorability rating has hovered around 35% since September and October of 2015. I looked up RCP's polling average trends specifically so I wouldn't be talking out of my ass. Now, you can question the accuracy of those early polls, but even being down in the mid 30s, which is what I stated in the post (not 30%), for two months isn't a good sign. You can check the data here.

Right. It couldn't be that he's remained incredibly unpopular. No. The polls! They're all rigged! Sarcasm aside, every poll taken after the DNC has had Trump down by at least four points. Some polls have him behind by 10. Those ones are hard to believe, but not inconceivable given the sudden, if low, popularity of the Libertarians. I mean, shit, RCP's average is Clinton up by 6+.


There is evidence. The polling says so. Now am I saying Hillary Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Americans? No, I'm not. Not by a mile. She's almost as far down as Trump. However, "almost" isn't "the same". She has a decidedly better 42% average favorability. In fact, her favorability levels are well above the nadir she had near the end of the primary and during the RNC. Trump's favorability, on the other hand, has revolved around 35% since October of last year with a brief dip down to the high 20s in April.


I've heard her say no such thing. How 'bout a source?


It's always a touchy subject when racists get called out on their bullshit views. I can't speak for Clinton, but personally, when I look at Trump's crowds, listen to what his supporters have to say, and hear what the big man is pontificating on, yeah, I think most of them are racists. Not in the "hang the niggers by the neck!" way, mind you, although there are certainly some who are like that, but in the "blacks are lazy and Mexicans are job stealing bastards" way. Kind of a partially washed style of racism, y'know? Not as sanitized as that spouted by most Republican politicians, but it ain't all KKK.

Anyway, if that's going to happen it hasn't happened yet. All the signs point towards a Clinton victory in November.

1. Here, try an actual poll instead of just whether or not people like him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5952.html

2. It's absurd-- unless it happens to be true. My favorite is the Reuters that sampled Democrats as 45% of the population and Republicans as 10%.

3. https://youtu.be/kHAlX9a_dfA?t=702

4. Except they don't believe blacks are lazy, they believe that there simply are no jobs available for blacks in the inner cities. They don't believe Latinos steal jobs, they believe illegal immigrants are willing to work for significantly lower wages (which is statistically true) which means that businesses are disincentivized from hiring other workers-- such as blacks or native/legally immigrated Latinos. Not to mention that at the time she gave that speech, Donald Trump was polling at 14% with blacks and over 30% with Latinos, were they racist too?

What's funny is that the same issues Trump brings up liberals have been talking about for years as plaguing the black community, but suddenly when Republicans talk about them they cease to exist.

The polls seem to say the majority doesn't like him, which isn't a surprise.

[Eol Sha]

Oh hey, it's 2012 all over again.

It's not the same. Romney was a standard cookie-cutter republican. Trump is not, Trump is controversial. It was the same deal with Brexit, all the supporters said "The polls are wrong the polls are wrong", and lo and behold the polls were wrong.

Also. Of course, it's the same. The electoral map, with some negative shifts in the popular vote, is likely to look incredibly similar to the 2008 election. As much as the rhetoric and issues of the day are different, the electoral coalitions for both parties will largely remain the same. The Dems will piggyback on the votes of minority voters and women and the Republicans will hobble about on white conservatives. The only real difference now is the addition of a quasi-viable Libertarian-Green alternative and a few pissed off conservatives staying home. As for the L-G tickets, they probably won't breach eight percent of the vote combined. So, yeah, nothing has really changed as far as the electoral map goes.

[Arlenton]

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Wait, you're trying to say young voters are going to go to Trump over Clinton?

[Neo Bavaria]

1. Here, try an actual poll instead of just whether or not people like him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5952.html

2. It's absurd-- unless it happens to be true. My favorite is the Reuters that sampled Democrats as 45% of the population and Republicans as 10%.

3. https://youtu.be/kHAlX9a_dfA?t=702

4. Except they don't believe blacks are lazy, they believe that there simply are no jobs available for blacks in the inner cities. They don't believe Latinos steal jobs, they believe illegal immigrants are willing to work for significantly lower wages (which is statistically true) which means that businesses are disincentivized from hiring other workers-- such as blacks or native/legally immigrated Latinos. Not to mention that at the time she gave that speech, Donald Trump was polling at 14% with blacks and over 30% with Latinos, were they racist too?

What's funny is that the same issues Trump brings up liberals have been talking about for years as plaguing the black community, but suddenly when Republicans talk about them they cease to exist.

The polls seem to say the majority doesn't like him, which isn't a surprise.

Yeah but an election isn't decided by who you like, it's decided by who you vote for.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Eh? Have you been following the election at all?

It's almost as if you've reversed the situation, here.

[Neo Bavaria]

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Wait, you're trying to say young voters are going to go to Trump over Clinton?

I'm saying people will vote for whoever gives them hope, and when the debates come and they realize "Wait, this isn't the same guy they talk about on CNN and in the NYT, this guy wants to give people hope" they will vote for Trump not Clinton.

[Neo Bavaria]

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Eh? Have you been following the election at all?

It's almost as if you've reversed the situation, here.

Ah yes, Clinton's famous slogan, "Make America Great Again", truly a testament to the Democratic Party's optimism on how much greater the country could be.

"Shit's broke but let's fix it", is not the same as "This is as good as it gets, now pony up those ballots".

[Soldati Senza Confini]

4. Except they don't believe blacks are lazy, they believe that there simply are no jobs available for blacks in the inner cities. They don't believe Latinos steal jobs, they believe illegal immigrants are willing to work for significantly lower wages (which is statistically true) which means that businesses are disincentivized from hiring other workers-- such as blacks or native/legally immigrated Latinos. Not to mention that at the time she gave that speech, Donald Trump was polling at 14% with blacks and over 30% with Latinos, were they racist too?

What's funny is that the same issues Trump brings up liberals have been talking about for years as plaguing the black community, but suddenly when Republicans talk about them they cease to exist.

It's a political race to the top, what do you expect?

That being said, it's not what the message is, is how the message is being delivered. Trump can't deliver a message of hope for shit.

[Arlenton]

The polls seem to say the majority doesn't like him, which isn't a surprise.

Yeah but an election isn't decided by who you like, it's decided by who you vote for.

Generally people do not vote for the one they dislike the most, more specifically, they tend to, in the case of presidential elections ALWAYS, vote for the more mainstream and practical candidate relative to the individual state's PVI and current political situation.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Eh? Have you been following the election at all?

It's almost as if you've reversed the situation, here.

Ah yes, Clinton's famous slogan, "Make America Great Again", truly a testament to the Democratic Party's optimism on how much greater the country could be.

"Shit's broke but let's fix it", is not the same as "This is as good as it gets, now pony up those ballots".

What are you talking about?!

Are you suggesting Trump's running Clinton campaign or what? Because from what I recall, every item sold by Trump's campaign DOES contain the slogan "make America great again". So what you're saying is that Clinton is running Trump's campaign now?

[Eol Sha]

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

You clearly haven't listened to Trump's, or really the Republican Party's, message of the past eight or so years. They're constantly talking about how things are broken. Trump's slogan is "Make America Great Again". That implies that, at least, the past eight years have seen America slide downward in its "greatness" level. You're argument here is contradictory to Trump's entire campaign.

Also, shit is "all broken". Just not most of things Trump talks about.

[Neo Bavaria]

4. Except they don't believe blacks are lazy, they believe that there simply are no jobs available for blacks in the inner cities. They don't believe Latinos steal jobs, they believe illegal immigrants are willing to work for significantly lower wages (which is statistically true) which means that businesses are disincentivized from hiring other workers-- such as blacks or native/legally immigrated Latinos. Not to mention that at the time she gave that speech, Donald Trump was polling at 14% with blacks and over 30% with Latinos, were they racist too?

What's funny is that the same issues Trump brings up liberals have been talking about for years as plaguing the black community, but suddenly when Republicans talk about them they cease to exist.

It's a political race to the top, what do you expect?

That being said, it's not what the message is, is how the message is being delivered. Trump can't deliver a message of hope for shit.

I'll admit "What do you have to lose" is a shitty slogan, but at least for me when I hear his speeches I get giddy because I believe he'll present a better future for all of us, and that's a feeling not even Obama gave me. Obama didn't make me enthusiastic, but he was better than "The Other Guy TM". Trump makes me enthusiastic about the future.

[Neo Bavaria]

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

You clearly haven't listened to Trump's, or really the Republican Party's, message of the past eight or so years. They're constantly talking about how things are broken. Trump's slogan is "Make America Great Again". That implies that, at least, the past eight years have seen America slide downward in its "greatness" level. You're argument here is contradictory to Trump's entire campaign.

Also, shit is "all broken". Just not most of things Trump talks about.

"Shit's broke but let's fix it" is not the same as "This is as good as it gets so pony up those ballots".

[Ism]

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Trump's message is that everything wrong is China's/Mexico's/Establishment's fault, and that, and I quote, "I [Trump] alone can fix it." This is misleading to say the least, and I fail to see Trump's policies being useful in solving these problems. Whatever hope he offers, is false hope.

[Eol Sha]

Wait, you're trying to say young voters are going to go to Trump over Clinton?

I'm saying people will vote for whoever gives them hope, and when the debates come and they realize "Wait, this isn't the same guy they talk about on CNN and in the NYT, this guy wants to give people hope" they will vote for Trump not Clinton.

Trump's campaign is dependent on scaring the shit out of older white people. He hardly brings hope to anyone but racists and xenophobes.

[Geilinor]

Eh? Have you been following the election at all?

It's almost as if you've reversed the situation, here.

Ah yes, Clinton's famous slogan, "Make America Great Again", truly a testament to the Democratic Party's optimism on how much greater the country could be.

"Shit's broke but let's fix it", is not the same as "This is as good as it gets, now pony up those ballots".

"Make America Great Again" is not optimistic - it means that everything is a disaster and that the country was hit by a catastrophe at one point.

[Hittanryan]

Well what policies would these be that are so appealing to these people? The wall? Immigrant ban? Protectionism? These policies are inefficient at best. If Brexit is the crux of your argument, I would point out a great many voters were ill-informed and mislead, meaning they made a choice to leave under false pretenses. I believe many Trump supporters are similarly misinformed, in no small part because they want to believe they can get back to the "good old days". They cannot, however.

Firstly, I want to make a note that that number is wrong for Brexit. 8.5 applies to the election where the Shy Tory Effect was first observed.

Secondly, maybe the reason young voters will vote for Trump is because he says "We can do better, we can become a greater nation" and proposes ideas on how to do so, rather than Clinton and the Dems going "Actually, shit's all broken and it can't get much better than this, just accept this money so you don't starve".

Not sure what your source is for Clinton's position, if you can provide it. However, Trump's promises of "we can do better" are largely hollow because he has no policy platform outlining how he will make things better. Several of the few actual proposals he's made are illegal (killing terrorists' families) or impossible (border wall at Mexico's expense). Others have been tried by Republicans before and have failed to do what they claim (lowering taxes on the rich, deregulation of the economy). A couple actually contradict the overall Republican party platform (weapons for Ukraine, punishing women who seek abortions). The rest is just his usual line of "Economy? We'll have the best economy, the biggest economy, trust me. Military? We'll have the best military, the strongest military, trust me."

[Soldati Senza Confini]

It's a political race to the top, what do you expect?

That being said, it's not what the message is, is how the message is being delivered. Trump can't deliver a message of hope for shit.

I'll admit "What do you have to lose" is a shitty slogan, but at least for me when I hear his speeches I get giddy because I believe he'll present a better future for all of us, and that's a feeling not even Obama gave me. Obama didn't make me enthusiastic, but he was better than "The Other Guy TM". Trump makes me enthusiastic about the future.

I mean, he basically goes and says "look guys, you're in the shitter, you have literally nothing to lose, vote for me!". That is not entirely true as right now we are in a rather stable situation, and things can only get worse for everyone if we think "oh we got nothing to lose!".