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US General Election Thread III: Clinton vs. Trump

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who Do You Support in the 2016 Election?

Hillary Rodham Clinton (Democrat)
376
37%
Donald J. Trump (Republican)
277
27%
Gary Johnson (Libertarian)
159
16%
Jill Stein (Green)
104
10%
Undecided
40
4%
Other
57
6%
 
Total votes : 1013

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New Chalcedon
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Postby New Chalcedon » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:55 am

Guy wrote:Hopefully we'll start seeing some high-quality polling after Labor Day. While I think Clinton is up nationwide by at least 5% (probably even more), we're just seeing the same pollsters over and over at this stage. Difficult to know where we really are.


Alternatively, the situation really is that dire, fed in no small part by the mainstream media. We are, after all, talking about an election in which the NYT flat-out ignored Trump's pay-to-play scandal in favour of yet more substance-free beatups of the Clinton Foundation. Didn't "minimize" it. Didn't bury it on page 60-something, or even indulge in their usual gratuitous "both sides are equally bad"-isms. Flat. Out. Ignored.

Meanwhile, the NYT's front page? Oh, look! It's yet another issue of Serious Concerns About The Clinton Foundation, raised by yet more self-anointed Very Serious People! Of course, they eventually acknowledge that there's no evidence of any wrongdoing by the Clintons whatsoever (aside from the emails, and Benghazi, and the Clinton Death List, and so on), but clearly, this is Very Serious News That People Need To Hear About, damnit! Not like that other guy actually breaking the law with criminal intent - that doesn't matter, this does! We gotta have more Clinton scandals, damnitall, and if the Clintons won't co-operate by breaking the law, why we've gotta take matters into our own lily-white hands and make it look as if they broke the law!

This election is different from most. The media aren't engaging in their usual false-equivalency games this election. They're not engaging in horse-race mentality, or even really trying to sell papers/clicks. They are flat-out boosting Trump and tearing Clinton down at every possible opportunity - then making more opportunities out of whole cloth.

"Liberal" media, my fat hairy arse. Let no-one dare to suggest that they stand atop so tall a mountain of contempt for those lily-livered, sycophantic, knock-kneed, pathetic, mim-faced "journalists" as I do - that plateau is mine alone to command!
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Giovenith
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Postby Giovenith » Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:41 am

Yumyumsuppertime wrote:Mere weeks after Princess Diana's death, Trump told Howard Stern that he could have "nailed" her, though one of her friends says that Diana thought that he was creepy, and was possibly stalking her.


There's that triple back-flip I was talking about.
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Socialist Nordia
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Postby Socialist Nordia » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:15 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/ ... index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.
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Communist Xomaniax
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Postby Communist Xomaniax » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:16 pm

Tbh the only reason I haven't defected from the Dems is that pretty much all the third parties either suck or advocate supporting the Dems.
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The Gipper
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Postby The Gipper » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:18 pm

Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.

Does Giuliani even have any authority to speak for Trump?

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Hurdergaryp
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Postby Hurdergaryp » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:19 pm

Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.

Giuliani should mentally prepare himself for becoming the target of an online harassment campaign by the usual bunch of alt-right neonazi bastards.


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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:29 pm

Hurdergaryp wrote:
Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.

Giuliani should mentally prepare himself for becoming the target of an online harassment campaign by the usual bunch of alt-right neonazi bastards.


Next Day...

CNN- "Giuliani: Trump not only wants to build wall, but install military base next to it"
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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:30 pm

New Chalcedon wrote:
Guy wrote:Hopefully we'll start seeing some high-quality polling after Labor Day. While I think Clinton is up nationwide by at least 5% (probably even more), we're just seeing the same pollsters over and over at this stage. Difficult to know where we really are.


Alternatively, the situation really is that dire, fed in no small part by the mainstream media. We are, after all, talking about an election in which the NYT flat-out ignored Trump's pay-to-play scandal in favour of yet more substance-free beatups of the Clinton Foundation. Didn't "minimize" it. Didn't bury it on page 60-something, or even indulge in their usual gratuitous "both sides are equally bad"-isms. Flat. Out. Ignored.

Meanwhile, the NYT's front page? Oh, look! It's yet another issue of Serious Concerns About The Clinton Foundation, raised by yet more self-anointed Very Serious People! Of course, they eventually acknowledge that there's no evidence of any wrongdoing by the Clintons whatsoever (aside from the emails, and Benghazi, and the Clinton Death List, and so on), but clearly, this is Very Serious News That People Need To Hear About, damnit! Not like that other guy actually breaking the law with criminal intent - that doesn't matter, this does! We gotta have more Clinton scandals, damnitall, and if the Clintons won't co-operate by breaking the law, why we've gotta take matters into our own lily-white hands and make it look as if they broke the law!

This election is different from most. The media aren't engaging in their usual false-equivalency games this election. They're not engaging in horse-race mentality, or even really trying to sell papers/clicks. They are flat-out boosting Trump and tearing Clinton down at every possible opportunity - then making more opportunities out of whole cloth.

"Liberal" media, my fat hairy arse. Let no-one dare to suggest that they stand atop so tall a mountain of contempt for those lily-livered, sycophantic, knock-kneed, pathetic, mim-faced "journalists" as I do - that plateau is mine alone to command!


Oh, and the media's obcession with headlines is overriding self preservation. They want to elect a guy who hates them so much he wants it to be easy to sue them on butthurt.
Crimes committed by Muslims will be a pan-Islamic plot and proof of Islam's inherent evil. On the other hand crimes committed by non-Muslims will merely be the acts of loners who do not represent their belief system at all.
The probability of one's participation in homosexual acts is directly proportional to one's public disdain and disgust for homosexuals.
If a political figure makes an accusation of wrongdoing without evidence, odds are probable that the accuser or an associate thereof has in fact committed the very same act, possibly to a worse degree.
Where is your God-Emperor now?

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Sanctissima
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Postby Sanctissima » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:34 pm

Gauthier wrote:
New Chalcedon wrote:
Alternatively, the situation really is that dire, fed in no small part by the mainstream media. We are, after all, talking about an election in which the NYT flat-out ignored Trump's pay-to-play scandal in favour of yet more substance-free beatups of the Clinton Foundation. Didn't "minimize" it. Didn't bury it on page 60-something, or even indulge in their usual gratuitous "both sides are equally bad"-isms. Flat. Out. Ignored.

Meanwhile, the NYT's front page? Oh, look! It's yet another issue of Serious Concerns About The Clinton Foundation, raised by yet more self-anointed Very Serious People! Of course, they eventually acknowledge that there's no evidence of any wrongdoing by the Clintons whatsoever (aside from the emails, and Benghazi, and the Clinton Death List, and so on), but clearly, this is Very Serious News That People Need To Hear About, damnit! Not like that other guy actually breaking the law with criminal intent - that doesn't matter, this does! We gotta have more Clinton scandals, damnitall, and if the Clintons won't co-operate by breaking the law, why we've gotta take matters into our own lily-white hands and make it look as if they broke the law!

This election is different from most. The media aren't engaging in their usual false-equivalency games this election. They're not engaging in horse-race mentality, or even really trying to sell papers/clicks. They are flat-out boosting Trump and tearing Clinton down at every possible opportunity - then making more opportunities out of whole cloth.

"Liberal" media, my fat hairy arse. Let no-one dare to suggest that they stand atop so tall a mountain of contempt for those lily-livered, sycophantic, knock-kneed, pathetic, mim-faced "journalists" as I do - that plateau is mine alone to command!


Oh, and the media's obcession with headlines is overriding self preservation. They want to elect a guy who hates them so much he wants it to be easy to sue them on butthurt.


Eh, I'm not convinced he isn't secretly celebrating how easy it can be to manipulate the media. Honestly, by this point, I think he's just saying whatever he thinks will get him in the headlines while maintaining the support of his voting base.

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Alien Space Bats
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US General Election Thread III: Clinton vs. Trump

Postby Alien Space Bats » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:34 pm

New Chalcedon wrote:Alternatively, the situation really is that dire, fed in no small part by the mainstream media. We are, after all, talking about an election in which the NYT flat-out ignored Trump's pay-to-play scandal in favour of yet more substance-free beatups of the Clinton Foundation. Didn't "minimize" it. Didn't bury it on page 60-something, or even indulge in their usual gratuitous "both sides are equally bad"-isms. Flat. Out. Ignored.

Meanwhile, the NYT's front page? Oh, look! It's yet another issue of Serious Concerns About The Clinton Foundation, raised by yet more self-anointed Very Serious People! Of course, they eventually acknowledge that there's no evidence of any wrongdoing by the Clintons whatsoever (aside from the emails, and Benghazi, and the Clinton Death List, and so on), but clearly, this is Very Serious News That People Need To Hear About, damnit! Not like that other guy actually breaking the law with criminal intent - that doesn't matter, this does! We gotta have more Clinton scandals, damnitall, and if the Clintons won't co-operate by breaking the law, why we've gotta take matters into our own lily-white hands and make it look as if they broke the law!

This election is different from most. The media aren't engaging in their usual false-equivalency games this election. They're not engaging in horse-race mentality, or even really trying to sell papers/clicks. They are flat-out boosting Trump and tearing Clinton down at every possible opportunity - then making more opportunities out of whole cloth.

"Liberal" media, my fat hairy arse. Let no-one dare to suggest that they stand atop so tall a mountain of contempt for those lily-livered, sycophantic, knock-kneed, pathetic, mim-faced "journalists" as I do - that plateau is mine alone to command!

Oh, come on, NC. You know that covering the end of the world will be a LOT more interesting than just covering another four years of the same old shit.

I mean, seriously, what do you expect? Patriotic sacrifice in the name of the country, or something?

The best caricature of the press ever offered in literature was J.K. Rowling's Rita Skeeter. Today's press is filled with people just like that.
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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New Marylandonia
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Postby New Marylandonia » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:06 pm

<snip>
Last edited by New Marylandonia on Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:58 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Hurdergaryp
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Postby Hurdergaryp » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:22 pm

The Gipper wrote:
Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.

Does Giuliani even have any authority to speak for Trump?

Should Trump have the authority to speak for Trump?


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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:17 am

Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:40 am

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.

I agree with them on that. When I read the FiveThirtyEight piece I was like "what the hell are they smoking"
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:42 am

Communist Xomaniax wrote:Tbh the only reason I haven't defected from the Dems is that pretty much all the third parties either suck or advocate supporting the Dems.

And that's only because of the orange menace. If it wasn't for Trump not one of those parties would be doing that
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Agritum
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Postby Agritum » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:21 am

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.

I'm throwing my lot with Prof Sam Wang's PEC, myself.

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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:30 am

Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.


Giuliani also thinks 9/11 never happened. I think we can pretty much ignore anything he says.
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Postby Ifreann » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:30 am

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology

This addition to my vocabulary pleases me.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:32 am

Vassenor wrote:
Socialist Nordia wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html
This campaign can never seem to make up its mind.


Giuliani also thinks 9/11 never happened. I think we can pretty much ignore anything he says.

He also thinks top is the bottom and the bottom is the top, and the sides are the middle and the middle are the sides.
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The United Territories of Providence
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Postby The United Territories of Providence » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:17 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.


I disagree. I'm not going to 538 for articles. But when I do, they are for the most part, well written and informative, like the number of articles written about how far to the right the GOP had moved and how that would affect the primary, or how Bernie Sanders would lose the Democratic Primary and it wouldn't be especially close, or how media coverage of the candidates compares to Google searches. I would argue that 538 has done a good job covering this election, and has done very good in depth articles about John Kaisch's horrible abortion record in Ohio, Cultural Resentment in the GOP, and any number of things. At the end of the article you've given, the author says that it's not just an attack on a competitor...well no, it kinda is. Because Electoral Vote, is just taking articles from Politico and the Washington Post for the most part and claiming them as their own. Electoral Vote probably is a good source, just like Real Clear Politics, which also takes content...but they don't pretend to be more superior than anyone else.

I go to 538 for the data. The Senate Forecasts, The Presidential Models, The Pollster Ratings, The Tracking of the ideologies of the major parties, Voter demographics, etc. They do a good job, better than anyone else in the field except for maybe Larry Sabato.

EDIT: Also, I don't know what decline in standards from 4 years ago that you're referring to. Considering, literally...4 years ago...they wrote an article called Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama. Which is almost identical to the article that Electoral Vote is critiquing where Nate Silver says "The Electoral College might not save Hillary"
Last edited by The United Territories of Providence on Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jerzylvania
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Postby Jerzylvania » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:18 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.


After looking E-V.com over, I must say I agree with your assessment. Strange how just about anything ESPN touches takes a bad turn. I see the droppings of a certain corporate rat.
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Postby Nariterrr » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:21 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.

Yeah, FiveThirtyEight isn't always the best source.
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Socialist Nordia
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Postby Socialist Nordia » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:36 pm

There's no way I'm voting for a candidate who's so obviously broken the law and skimmed the rules their whole life, owns an extremely shady "charity", has made money from Saudi Arabia, has been involved in pay for play allegations, and is a pathological liar.

I'm talking about Trump by the way. Funny how all of his accusations against Hillary are more true against him.
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USS Monitor
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Postby USS Monitor » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:40 pm

The United Territories of Providence wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.


I disagree. I'm not going to 538 for articles. But when I do, they are for the most part, well written and informative, like the number of articles written about how far to the right the GOP had moved and how that would affect the primary, or how Bernie Sanders would lose the Democratic Primary and it wouldn't be especially close, or how media coverage of the candidates compares to Google searches. I would argue that 538 has done a good job covering this election, and has done very good in depth articles about John Kaisch's horrible abortion record in Ohio, Cultural Resentment in the GOP, and any number of things. At the end of the article you've given, the author says that it's not just an attack on a competitor...well no, it kinda is. Because Electoral Vote, is just taking articles from Politico and the Washington Post for the most part and claiming them as their own. Electoral Vote probably is a good source, just like Real Clear Politics, which also takes content...but they don't pretend to be more superior than anyone else.

I go to 538 for the data. The Senate Forecasts, The Presidential Models, The Pollster Ratings, The Tracking of the ideologies of the major parties, Voter demographics, etc. They do a good job, better than anyone else in the field except for maybe Larry Sabato.


When 538 is good, they're really good. Their election forecasts are useful, and some of their articles are interesting and insightful.

But there is also a lot of fluff and filler and people with a liberal agenda talking out of their asses.
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Guy
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Postby Guy » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:47 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Psephology catfight...

Electoral-Vote.com offers a sweeping critique of FiveThirtyEight: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/F ... s/538.html

Frankly, having read some of FiveThirtyEight this election season, I'm very much with Electoral-Vote.com on this one. I was genuinely shocked by the decline in standards at FiveThirtyEight since the last election, while Electoral-Vote.com remains the first site I visit for the latest news on the US election.

Yeah, except EV is utter crap for predictions, and even worse for commentary.

Reminds me of the time in one of Tannenbaum's daily updates ~2009 he was telling his readers what will happen in the Senate, and simply showed he knew nothing of Senate procedure.

His simple election model is simply worthless.

I don't rate many of FTE's articles, and I think they've made some really dubious decisions with their model so far (which explains the divergence from Upshot and Princeton). But all of the above are still miles ahead of E-V, which never had any credibility in the first place.
Last edited by Guy on Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Commander of the Rejected Realms Army

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