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US General Election Megathread: Trump vs Clinton

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who will win the election?

Donald Trump
27
29%
Hillary Clinton
52
55%
Gary Johnson
10
11%
Jill Stein
5
5%
 
Total votes : 94

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Neutraligon
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Founded: Oct 01, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Neutraligon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:06 pm

Major-Tom wrote:Also, has anybody given much thought to the Senate elections? If Hillary is elected, she may very well see a Republican Senate and House.


Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:10 pm

Neutraligon wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Also, has anybody given much thought to the Senate elections? If Hillary is elected, she may very well see a Republican Senate and House.


Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.


Possible, but I don't find it as likely as some pundits say.

Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson face an uphill battle, I imagine both of them will lose their seats, to Tammy Duckworth and Russ Feingold, respectively. As for other close states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, I could see the more moderate incumbents winning, both Portman and Toomey. Both poll ahead of their opposition fairly consistently, with a few outliers. Anything could happen in New Hamsphire and Florida, but I do see Nevada swinging red after the hated Harry Reid resigns, etc etc.

Overall, I can see the Senate composition at 51-48 once the election is over, with that 1 independent seat occupied by Bernie.

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Yorkers
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Postby Yorkers » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:10 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Neutraligon wrote:
Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.


Possible, but I don't find it as likely as some pundits say.

Mark Kirk


I banged one of his interns.
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I wish that every kiss was never-ending.


An alternate history epic.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:11 pm

Kelinfort wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Also, has anybody given much thought to the Senate elections? If Hillary is elected, she may very well see a Republican Senate and House.

Perhaps, although the Senate is probably up in the air.

I voted for Ron Unz in our senate election, but he came in third. So now, we got two Democrats running for the seat.


Pfft, California, gotta love it.

I'm still working my behind off for McCain.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:11 pm

Yorkers wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Possible, but I don't find it as likely as some pundits say.

Mark Kirk


I banged one of his interns.


If you're being sincere, I gotta give you a thumbs up.

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Kelinfort
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Postby Kelinfort » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:12 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Kelinfort wrote:Perhaps, although the Senate is probably up in the air.

I voted for Ron Unz in our senate election, but he came in third. So now, we got two Democrats running for the seat.


Pfft, California, gotta love it.

I'm still working my behind off for McCain.

The sad thing? He didn't come in third state wide, he came in third in the Republican Field. They could've easily gotten a second place finish, but they had like 7 candidates run.

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Yorkers
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Founded: Oct 27, 2015
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Postby Yorkers » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:14 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Yorkers wrote:
I banged one of his interns.


If you're being sincere, I gotta give you a thumbs up.


It was the girl from the College Republicans I told you about. She also interns for Kirk.
"Providence has been pleased to give this one connected country to one united people, a people descended from the same ancestors, speaking the same language, professing the same religion, attached to the same principles of government, very similar in their manners and customs."
-John Jay, 1787

Dancing in the moonlight.
I wish that every kiss was never-ending.


An alternate history epic.

sa-wish!

Yorkers is a wealthy WASP playground inspired by L.L. Bean and Vineyard Vines catalogs and 19th Century Anglo-American nativism.

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Neutraligon
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Posts: 42385
Founded: Oct 01, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Neutraligon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:15 pm

Yorkers wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
If you're being sincere, I gotta give you a thumbs up.


It was the girl from the College Republicans I told you about. She also interns for Kirk.


I have absolutely no interest in your sexual history.
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Yorkers
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Founded: Oct 27, 2015
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Postby Yorkers » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:16 pm

Neutraligon wrote:
Yorkers wrote:
It was the girl from the College Republicans I told you about. She also interns for Kirk.


I have absolutely no interest in your sexual history.


scro'
"Providence has been pleased to give this one connected country to one united people, a people descended from the same ancestors, speaking the same language, professing the same religion, attached to the same principles of government, very similar in their manners and customs."
-John Jay, 1787

Dancing in the moonlight.
I wish that every kiss was never-ending.


An alternate history epic.

sa-wish!

Yorkers is a wealthy WASP playground inspired by L.L. Bean and Vineyard Vines catalogs and 19th Century Anglo-American nativism.

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Corrian
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 74888
Founded: Mar 19, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:17 pm

Divitaen wrote:I'm more surprised at how epically his slim "polling lead" over Clinton has completely evaporated after all his financial scandals, fraudulent business dealings, racist remarks against an Indiana judge and vile reaction to Orlando just completely turned off a portion of his own voters. Its a testament to what a poor politician he really is.

His lead plummeted right after Clinton became the official nominee, too. Not a coincidence. Just like he completely took her lead away when he officially became the nominee, and they were tied and that was the time they were using the "Only Sanders can beat Trump!" approach (Which is obviously completely false now)

Guarantee her lead grows even more once Sanders is officially out.
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New Jerzylvania
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Founded: Feb 17, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby New Jerzylvania » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:32 pm

Neutraligon wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Also, has anybody given much thought to the Senate elections? If Hillary is elected, she may very well see a Republican Senate and House.


Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.



Odds are pretty good, then in 2018 they have to defend many more seats than the GOP, so the advantage may not last long.

Then again, never underestimate the republicans' ability to disembowel themselves.
DEFCON 1

Clinton/Kaine 2016

It is the solemn and patriotic duty of all true Americans to prevent the election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States by use of the ballot box.
Even if it means you might have to be called for jury duty!

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New Jerzylvania
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Founded: Feb 17, 2015
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Postby New Jerzylvania » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:35 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Yorkers wrote:
I banged one of his interns.


If you're being sincere, I gotta give you a thumbs up.


Thumbs up? ...is there some small penis symbolism intended here? :lol2:
DEFCON 1

Clinton/Kaine 2016

It is the solemn and patriotic duty of all true Americans to prevent the election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States by use of the ballot box.
Even if it means you might have to be called for jury duty!

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Washington Resistance Army
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Posts: 54805
Founded: Aug 08, 2011
Father Knows Best State

Postby Washington Resistance Army » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:35 pm

Neutraligon wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Also, has anybody given much thought to the Senate elections? If Hillary is elected, she may very well see a Republican Senate and House.


Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.


IIRC Trump and the RNC raised like 12 million a week ago, with any luck even if they lose the GOP will keep the House and the Senate.
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Guy
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Founded: Oct 05, 2011
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Guy » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:43 pm

Maurepas wrote:
Freefall11111 wrote:It beggars belief that the party accepted the minimum wage increase but not the carbon tax.

Or maybe I shouldn't be surprised given that the former is easier to sell as good for the poor.

I'm not big on the carbon tax personally. They're awful for just about any income bracket in one way or another, and I don't think they're very effective. Tech advancement and investment in it will be the key to fighting climate change, not shifting an undue burden on both the poor who'll need to buy into it, and the rich who'll need to invest in it.

The minimum wage I'm okay with, if not as gung-ho about it. It'll certainly provide some short-term boost for a lot of people, but long term it's just shifting the numbers around for price and labor cost. It isn't actually making that labor more valuable, or stimulating demand for that labor which I think are much bigger factors. But, I'm happy to compromise on it, as like I said, it will bring a short term boost to a lot of people.

Australia placed a price on carbon emissions, 80% of people were better off due to compensation regimes (money raised was given back, essentially). So it was redistributive and incredibly environmentally efficient. Much better for the budget, too, than direct investment.

As for the minimum wage, pulling tens of millions of people out of poverty is a noble goal. The evidence that it will have more serious adverse effects is simply not there.
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Yumyumsuppertime
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Founded: Jun 21, 2012
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Postby Yumyumsuppertime » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:52 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Kelinfort wrote:Perhaps, although the Senate is probably up in the air.

I voted for Ron Unz in our senate election, but he came in third. So now, we got two Democrats running for the seat.


Pfft, California, gotta love it.

I'm still working my behind off for McCain.


We're perfectly happy to elect non-insane Republicans in California. However, the state party is in collapse after the Schwarzenegger debacle, meaning that it's nearly impossible to field effective candidates.

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Kelinfort
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Postby Kelinfort » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:57 pm

Yumyumsuppertime wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Pfft, California, gotta love it.

I'm still working my behind off for McCain.


We're perfectly happy to elect non-insane Republicans in California. However, the state party is in collapse after the Schwarzenegger debacle, meaning that it's nearly impossible to field effective candidates.

Schwarzenegger was the last real guy to have a chance. Even since 1994, they've been on the decline.

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Philjia
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Postby Philjia » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:59 pm

Yumyumsuppertime wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Pfft, California, gotta love it.

I'm still working my behind off for McCain.


We're perfectly happy to elect non-insane Republicans in California. However, the state party is in collapse after the Schwarzenegger debacle, meaning that it's nearly impossible to field effective candidates.


Non-insane Republicans are getting further and further marginalised. Just look at what happened to Kasich.
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Corrian
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Founded: Mar 19, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:01 pm

I read about that thing in California where it ended up coming down to two Democrats up against each other....
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New Jerzylvania
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Founded: Feb 17, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby New Jerzylvania » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:20 pm

Philjia wrote:
Yumyumsuppertime wrote:
We're perfectly happy to elect non-insane Republicans in California. However, the state party is in collapse after the Schwarzenegger debacle, meaning that it's nearly impossible to field effective candidates.


Non-insane Republicans are getting further and further marginalised. Just look at what happened to Kasich.


Governor Kasich isn't even allowed to speak at the GOP convention which is being held in his home state! Trump says if he's not endorsed by leading Republicans, then they will not be invited to speak.
That also includes Ted Cruz who will have around 550 delegates in attendance. Those folks really won't like that and could get quite vocal about it.

Trump is so crazy divisive inside his own party, can you imagine what he'd do if elected POTUS to those demographic groups that voted against him?
So y'all come out on election day and make sure this evil ass clown is defeated, ya hear?
DEFCON 1

Clinton/Kaine 2016

It is the solemn and patriotic duty of all true Americans to prevent the election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States by use of the ballot box.
Even if it means you might have to be called for jury duty!

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Corrian
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Founded: Mar 19, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:27 pm

Is there a link to that Clinton and Warren thing?
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Washington Resistance Army
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Founded: Aug 08, 2011
Father Knows Best State

Postby Washington Resistance Army » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:28 pm

New Jerzylvania wrote:
Philjia wrote:
Non-insane Republicans are getting further and further marginalised. Just look at what happened to Kasich.


Governor Kasich isn't even allowed to speak at the GOP convention which is being held in his home state! Trump says if he's not endorsed by leading Republicans, then they will not be invited to speak.
That also includes Ted Cruz who will have around 550 delegates in attendance. Those folks really won't like that and could get quite vocal about it.

Trump is so crazy divisive inside his own party, can you imagine what he'd do if elected POTUS to those demographic groups that voted against him?
So y'all come out on election day and make sure this evil ass clown is defeated, ya hear?


I'll be doing my part to defeat both the evil ass clowns :p
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Ashmoria
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Founded: Mar 19, 2004
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Ashmoria » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:37 pm

New Jerzylvania wrote:
Philjia wrote:
Non-insane Republicans are getting further and further marginalised. Just look at what happened to Kasich.


Governor Kasich isn't even allowed to speak at the GOP convention which is being held in his home state! Trump says if he's not endorsed by leading Republicans, then they will not be invited to speak.
That also includes Ted Cruz who will have around 550 delegates in attendance. Those folks really won't like that and could get quite vocal about it.

Trump is so crazy divisive inside his own party, can you imagine what he'd do if elected POTUS to those demographic groups that voted against him?
So y'all come out on election day and make sure this evil ass clown is defeated, ya hear?

those slots will be taken by gary bussey and meatloaf.
whatever

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Ashmoria
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Founded: Mar 19, 2004
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Ashmoria » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:39 pm

AND

did you see that scott brown challenged Elizabeth warren to take a dna test to prove her native American heritage?

does that guy want the VP nomination or what?
whatever

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Maineiacs
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Founded: May 26, 2005
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Maineiacs » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:41 pm

Economic:-8.12 Social:-7.59 Moral Rules:5 Moral Order:-5
Muravyets: Maineiacs, you are brilliant, too! I stand in delighted awe.
Sane Outcasts:When your best case scenario is five kilometers of nuclear contamination, you know someone fucked up.
Geniasis: Christian values are incompatible with Conservative ideals. I cannot both follow the teachings of Christ and be a Republican. Therefore, I choose to not be a Republican.
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Maineiacs
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Founded: May 26, 2005
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Maineiacs » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:49 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Neutraligon wrote:
Considering that Trump is failing to help people down ballot when it comes to fundraising, and may be actively harming them with his rhetoric, I think it is possible for Dems to retake the senate.


Possible, but I don't find it as likely as some pundits say.

Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson face an uphill battle, I imagine both of them will lose their seats, to Tammy Duckworth and Russ Feingold, respectively. As for other close states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, I could see the more moderate incumbents winning, both Portman and Toomey. Both poll ahead of their opposition fairly consistently, with a few outliers. Anything could happen in New Hamsphire and Florida, but I do see Nevada swinging red after the hated Harry Reid resigns, etc etc.

Overall, I can see the Senate composition at 51-48 once the election is over, with that 1 independent seat occupied by Bernie.



There are 2 Independents in the Senate: Bernie, and Angus King (I-ME). Like Sanders, King caucuses with the Dems.
Economic:-8.12 Social:-7.59 Moral Rules:5 Moral Order:-5
Muravyets: Maineiacs, you are brilliant, too! I stand in delighted awe.
Sane Outcasts:When your best case scenario is five kilometers of nuclear contamination, you know someone fucked up.
Geniasis: Christian values are incompatible with Conservative ideals. I cannot both follow the teachings of Christ and be a Republican. Therefore, I choose to not be a Republican.
Galloism: If someone will build a wall around Donald Trump, I'll pay for it.
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