European Future - Superpower EU? USE? [II]

[Next Washington]

Hello fellow members,

this is a follow-up on one of my previous topics, where I also asked for your opinion on the future of the European Union.

Now I'll write a paper about EU politics (will pick a focus later), and one part of this paper will be your opinion.

Please pick one of the options above. The three scenarios are based on the US Intelligence Global trends 2030: Alternative worlds report.

Below three scenarios for Europe and its international role in 2030 are outlined:

A Collapse scenario has a low probability of occuring
but would entail very high international risks. In this
scenario, domestic firms and households respond to
indications of an imminent currency regime change by
rapidly accelerating withdrawal of euro deposits from
domestic financial institutions. Following contagion
to other member states and economic damage to the
core countries, the euro would be the first casualty.
The EU as an institution would be a likely collateral
victim because the single market and freedom of
movement across Europe would be jeopardized by the
reinstatement of capital and border controls. Under
such a scenario, severe economic dislocation and
political fracture would lead to a breakdown in civil
society. If the collapse were sudden and unexpected, it
would very likely trigger a global recession or another
Great Depression.

In a Slow Decline scenario, Europe manages to escape
from the worst aspects of the current crisis, but
fails to undertake the necessary structural reforms.
As member states endure years of low economic
growth, they stick together in order to avoid major
political and economic disruptions. EU institutions
hang on, but public discontent remains high. The
euro survives, but it does not become a rival to the
dollar or the renminbi. Given years of low economic
growth, Europe’s international presence is diminished;
countries re-nationalize their foreign policies.

Our third scenario, Renaissance, is based on the
familiar pattern of crisis and renewal, which Europe
has experienced many times in the past. After staring
at the abyss, most European leaders agree on a
“federalist leap.” Publics support such a step, given
the imminent risks involved maintaining the status
quo. A more federal Europe might begin with only a
core group of euro zone countries with some choosing
to opt out or adopt a wait-and-see policy. Over time,
despite the existence of a multispeed Europe, the
single market would still be completed and a more
united foreign and security policy agreed upon with
enhanced elements of European democracy. European
influence would increase, strengthening Europe’s role
and that of multilateral institutions on the world stage.

Thanks for your help! I'd appreciate your comments and participation!

[Conservative Values]

It doesn't seem to me a major economic melt down is going to be needed to convince some nations it might be a good idea to get out of the EU.

[Teemant]

I think EU will be a strong player in the future but I think EU will be different. I think some countries will leave but it's nothing terrible. Closer union needs similar goals and better understanding (of world) between it's member states.

[Next Washington]

It doesn't seem to me a major economic melt down is going to be needed to convince some nations it might be a good idea to get out of the EU.

So what are the reasons nations should get out of the EU?

I think EU will be a strong player in the future but I think EU will be different. I think some countries will leave but it's nothing terrible. Closer union needs similar goals and better understanding (of world) between it's member states.

What will be different in the future?

[Conservative Values]

It doesn't seem to me a major economic melt down is going to be needed to convince some nations it might be a good idea to get out of the EU.

So what are the reasons nations should get out of the EU?

It is generally better for a society to be able to control its own currency. Not doing so limits the ability to respond to economic conditions, though there are benefits to using the same currency as those around you.. It is a benefit / cost trade off that isn't the same for every member.

[Teemant]

It doesn't seem to me a major economic melt down is going to be needed to convince some nations it might be a good idea to get out of the EU.

So what are the reasons nations should get out of the EU?

I think EU will be a strong player in the future but I think EU will be different. I think some countries will leave but it's nothing terrible. Closer union needs similar goals and better understanding (of world) between it's member states.

What will be different in the future?

I think member states will be different. We will see probably some leavers and that's a good thing.
After that EU can have fiscal union in addition to monetary union.

[Genivaria]

I think a Federal Europe is a stronger Europe.

[Scepez]

"Now I'll write a paper about EU politics (will pick a focus later), and one part of this paper will be your opinion."

Asking for help on papers/work is against the rules, ainnit?

[Conscentia]

I think a Federal Europe is a stronger Europe.

Going by statistics, it'd be a superpower. Stronger indeed.

[New Werpland]

I think a Federal Europe is a stronger Europe.

Going by statistics, it'd be a superpower. Stronger indeed.

An economic superpower, not a military superpower.

[Soled]

How would the countries that have strong ties with the EU but are non a member of it (EFTA, Turkey, etc.) fit into this if the EU were to federalize?

[Genivaria]

Going by statistics, it'd be a superpower. Stronger indeed.

An economic superpower, not a military superpower.

Being able to afford the bureaucracy for a unified military is a good start.

[Genivaria]

How would the countries that have strong ties with the EU but are non a member of it (EFTA, Turkey, etc.) fit into this if the EU were to federalize?

I'm sure the option to join at their convenience would be offered.
And give strong incentives to officially join.

Protection from the Russian Bear would be a start.

[Napkiraly]

An economic superpower, not a military superpower.

Being able to afford the bureaucracy for a unified military is a good start.

It wouldn't be long either for the EU to develop into a military superpower if it so desired.

[Genivaria]

Being able to afford the bureaucracy for a unified military is a good start.

It wouldn't be long either for the EU to develop into a military superpower if it so desired.

Combined with the EU's strong desire for renewable energy combined with the oppurtunity to create a military from the ground up may lead to cheaper and more independent military.

[Spartacan]

I believe that the EU will become increasingly centralised but still have autonomous states (a bit like the USA). Germany will become even more controlling and eventually the EU will be like a state. The army of it being Nato without the US of course. The fourth reich perhaps?

[Napkiraly]

It wouldn't be long either for the EU to develop into a military superpower if it so desired.

Combined with the EU's strong desire for renewable energy combined with the oppurtunity to create a military from the ground up may lead to cheaper and more independent military.

It wouldn't be creating a military from the ground up. It'd be a restructuring of the military. Integration and interoperability between MS armed forces is already well established.

It would allow Europe to become a more equal member of NATO however and contribute more robustly to missions across the globe.

[Genivaria]

I believe that the EU will become increasingly centralised but still have autonomous states (a bit like the USA). Germany will become even more controlling and eventually the EU will be like a state. The army of it being Nato without the US of course. The fourth reich perhaps?

Get out.

[European Socialist Republic]

I believe that the EU will become increasingly centralised but still have autonomous states (a bit like the USA). Germany will become even more controlling and eventually the EU will be like a state. The army of it being Nato without the US of course. The fourth reich perhaps?

Nein, the EUSSR! Although I personally think UESSR sounds better.

[Next Washington]

I think a Federal Europe is a stronger Europe.

As federal as now or do you mean a europe like the US?

[New Werpland]

I believe that the EU will become increasingly centralised but still have autonomous states (a bit like the USA). Germany will become even more controlling and eventually the EU will be like a state. The army of it being Nato without the US of course. The fourth reich perhaps?

That would be nice, but it's probably not going to happen. Through my meager knowledge of the EU, it seems best that the Central Bank should be gotten rid of.

Oh didn't see the fourth Reich bit . But it would be nice if Germany could rule over all of Europe and not attract all the haters for doing so.

[Next Washington]

"Now I'll write a paper about EU politics (will pick a focus later), and one part of this paper will be your opinion."

Asking for help on papers/work is against the rules, ainnit?

Why should that be against the rules? If you don't wanna help me, don't post in here. After all, I need to get survey results from somewhere + some additional info why people think the EU will develop in a certain way.

[Next Washington]

Protection from the Russian Bear would be a start.

EU without America being able to protect itself? Might take some years... not before 2020 at least

But yes, we need a unified military. My point of view at least.

[Next Washington]

Combined with the EU's strong desire for renewable energy combined with the oppurtunity to create a military from the ground up may lead to cheaper and more independent military.

It wouldn't be creating a military from the ground up. It'd be a restructuring of the military. Integration and interoperability between MS armed forces is already well established.

It would allow Europe to become a more equal member of NATO however and contribute more robustly to missions across the globe.

Given that EU armies are barely able to take care of the EU's own backyard (e.g. balkan 90's), do you think it could become strong enough to be on a par with America / Russia / China / India?

[Greater-London]

Well slow decline isn't really an option rapid decline is happening right now. The EU in the future will either become a fully fledged federal sate or disintegrate, It's simply not workable in its current form. The USE wouldn't be all current member states - I imagine it would be a core - probably the founding members. Other members would probably enter a free trade free travel arrangement with the core.