Ukraine Crisis II: Electric Boogaloo

[European Socialist Republic]

The Coup Authorities have decided to relaunch their "anti-terror" operation. Conviniently timed for when the US VP is in the capital. Russian FM Lavrov warned yesterday that Russia would come in and stop attempts by the Kiev regime to impose civil war on Ukraine but it seems they no longer care what the international community thinks.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27118875

It is most strange that you would link an article that provides the actual reason of the Ukrainian government's renewed counter-separatist efforts. (Like pro-Russian separatists torturing Ukrainian politicians for example)

What's funny is that if Russia did the exact same thing as Ukraine, Nilfgaard would see it as further proof that Great Leader Putin is STRONK!

And then he complains of the West having double standards.

[Beta Test]

Putin wants to bring back the might of the Soviet Union. That is his end goal, whatever he happens to be doing at the moment. If he sees the opportunity, he will take it.

No. About as reasonable as people claiming the Crimea is the modern Sudetenland. Putin's interested in expanding influence. That's why he took Sevastopol, but ignored eastern Ukraine. Sevastopol is an important naval base. Eastern Ukraine isn't strategically useful. Poland isn't either. And Poland is in NATO. Putin cannot, and will not, expand further. The crisis is over.

The Crimea crisis is over, but the Ukraine crisis is far from over. There's still a significant possibility that Russia invades Eastern Ukraine, not so much to absorb it, but to force the Kiev government to make concessions or face overthrow.

[Divair2]

No. About as reasonable as people claiming the Crimea is the modern Sudetenland. Putin's interested in expanding influence. That's why he took Sevastopol, but ignored eastern Ukraine. Sevastopol is an important naval base. Eastern Ukraine isn't strategically useful. Poland isn't either. And Poland is in NATO. Putin cannot, and will not, expand further. The crisis is over.

The Crimea crisis is over, but the Ukraine crisis is far from over. There's still a significant possibility that Russia invades Eastern Ukraine, not so much to absorb it, but to force the Kiev government to make concessions or face overthrow.

Unlikely at best. Russia's economy has already stopped growing from the international outrage. An actual invasion of the country? Utter economic and political disaster. Russia would be an outcast.

[Beta Test]

The Crimea crisis is over, but the Ukraine crisis is far from over. There's still a significant possibility that Russia invades Eastern Ukraine, not so much to absorb it, but to force the Kiev government to make concessions or face overthrow.

Unlikely at best. Russia's economy has already stopped growing from the international outrage. An actual invasion of the country? Utter economic and political disaster. Russia would be an outcast.

As if they aren't already. The damage is done, Putin's actions have greatly reduced the trust between East and West and their willingness to cooperate.

[Divair2]

Unlikely at best. Russia's economy has already stopped growing from the international outrage. An actual invasion of the country? Utter economic and political disaster. Russia would be an outcast.

As if they aren't already. The damage is done, Putin's actions have greatly reduced the trust between East and West and their willingness to cooperate.

They haven't been entirely thrown under the bus yet. Once we start cutting off their gas, that's when I'd start worrying.

[Beta Test]

As if they aren't already. The damage is done, Putin's actions have greatly reduced the trust between East and West and their willingness to cooperate.

They haven't been entirely thrown under the bus yet. Once we start cutting off their gas, that's when I'd start worrying.

Hopefully it won't get to that. If Kerry and Lavrov can find a way to work on Syria, than they should be able to find a way to work on this. Hopefully...

[Lemanrussland]

Putin wants to bring back the might of the Soviet Union. That is his end goal, whatever he happens to be doing at the moment. If he sees the opportunity, he will take it.

No. About as reasonable as people claiming the Crimea is the modern Sudetenland. Putin's interested in expanding influence. That's why he took Sevastopol, but ignored eastern Ukraine. Sevastopol is an important naval base. Eastern Ukraine isn't strategically useful. Poland isn't either. And Poland is in NATO. Putin cannot, and will not, expand further. The crisis is over.

"East Ukraine is not strategically useful".

Yes it is, it's home to a lot of heavy industry and coal mining. It's basically eastern Europe's equivalent of the Ruhr valley. Not to mention Russia wants to maintain it's system of (at least neutral) buffer states for reasons we talked about earlier in the thread.

It doesn't necessarily need to annex east Ukraine to accomplish that (keeping Ukraine neutral at a minimum), it just needs federalization.

[Divair2]

They haven't been entirely thrown under the bus yet. Once we start cutting off their gas, that's when I'd start worrying.

Hopefully it won't get to that. If Kerry and Lavrov can find a way to work on Syria, than they should be able to find a way to work on this. Hopefully...

Status quo. That's pretty much it.

No. About as reasonable as people claiming the Crimea is the modern Sudetenland. Putin's interested in expanding influence. That's why he took Sevastopol, but ignored eastern Ukraine. Sevastopol is an important naval base. Eastern Ukraine isn't strategically useful. Poland isn't either. And Poland is in NATO. Putin cannot, and will not, expand further. The crisis is over.

"East Ukraine is not strategically useful".

Yes it is, it's home to a lot of heavy industry and coal mining. It's basically eastern Europe's equivalent of the Ruhr valley. Not to mention Russia wants to maintain it's system of (at least neutral) buffer states for reasons we talked about earlier in the thread.

Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

[Lemanrussland]

Hopefully it won't get to that. If Kerry and Lavrov can find a way to work on Syria, than they should be able to find a way to work on this. Hopefully...

Status quo. That's pretty much it.

"East Ukraine is not strategically useful".

Yes it is, it's home to a lot of heavy industry and coal mining. It's basically eastern Europe's equivalent of the Ruhr valley. Not to mention Russia wants to maintain it's system of (at least neutral) buffer states for reasons we talked about earlier in the thread.

Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

Lots of strategically important places are shitholes, though. Afghanistan, for example, is not the nicest place in the world, but it is important as a strategic hub in Central Asia.

[Divair2]

Status quo. That's pretty much it.


Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

Lots of strategically important places are shitholes, though. Afghanistan, for example, is not the nicest place in the world, but it is important as a strategic hub in Central Asia.

If your goal is to, say, establish a huge forward operating base to pressure nearby countries like Iran, yes.

But eastern Europe isn't Putin's focus. It can't be. Too much NATO influence.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

It is most strange that you would link an article that provides the actual reason of the Ukrainian government's renewed counter-separatist efforts. (Like pro-Russian separatists torturing Ukrainian politicians for example)

What's funny is that if Russia did the exact same thing as Ukraine, Nilfgaard would see it as further proof that Great Leader Putin is STRONK!

And then he complains of the West having double standards.

The West thinks it can have its cake and eat it too. They think they can flagrantly interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring nations and then they expect Russia to be a good sport about it.

Fuck. THAT.

Even if this crisis is resolved tomorrow I think the West has learned a useful lesson not to fuck with shit it doesn't understand. Don't sponsor revolutions and expect everyone to look the other way.

[Breadknife]

The West thinks it can have its cake and eat it too. They think they can flagrantly interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring nations and then they expect Russia to be a good sport about it.

Fuck. THAT.

Even if this crisis is resolved tomorrow I think the West has learned a useful lesson not to fuck with shit it doesn't understand. Don't sponsor revolutions and expect everyone to look the other way.

The only thing wrong with switching round "The West" and "Russia" and re-reading what you just wrote is the unlikelihood of 'The West' having as coherent an attitude as Russia's top-down directed policies can be assumed to have. I'd say Russia is far more likely to get away with its ambitions than any (perhaps real, perhaps mythical) ones possessed by Europe/NATO/whatever. That doesn't make it any more acceptable, so don't feel happy about that.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Is anyone here a fan of Vice News?

It seems their main reporter in Eastern Ukraine, Simon Ostrovsky has been arrested.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/2 ... 92590.html

[Aeken]

Is anyone here a fan of Vice News?

It seems their main reporter in Eastern Ukraine, Simon Ostrovsky has been arrested.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/2 ... 92590.html

I am.

Fuck! That's not good.

[Independent Canterbury]

Simon has been in custody since last night, was not allowed to leave press conference.

https://twitter.com/GrahamWP_UK

follow this journalist for updates he is trying to secure his release right now.

[Lyttenburgh]

"East Ukraine is not strategically useful".

Yes it is, it's home to a lot of heavy industry and coal mining. It's basically eastern Europe's equivalent of the Ruhr valley. Not to mention Russia wants to maintain it's system of (at least neutral) buffer states for reasons we talked about earlier in the thread.

It doesn't necessarily need to annex east Ukraine to accomplish that (keeping Ukraine neutral at a minimum), it just needs federalization.

And how, may I ask, is the Rurh valley is faring nowadays in the united Germany, hmm? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's pretty much grim-dark rusting, decaying industrial wasteland with lots and lots of old, abandoned mines in the area. So, why should Russia have another Chelyabinsk?

[Rio Cana]

Status quo. That's pretty much it.


Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

Lots of strategically important places are shitholes, though. Afghanistan, for example, is not the nicest place in the world, but it is important as a strategic hub in Central Asia.

Seems you have not seen the Mansions of Afghanistan.
Short video of the Mansions of Afghanistan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEu_-Jods5g

[Independent Canterbury]

GrahamWPhillips ‏@GrahamWP_UK 6m

Mayor has just told me Simon is ok, sleeping, told me to get some sleep. Hopefully release in morning.

Stonewalling him.

Not a good sign.

[Independent Canterbury]

GrahamWPhillips ‏@GrahamWP_UK

Ok, seems no chance of release tonight, mayor tells me they are expecting attack on building, no one leaves.

[Limborg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNig07RtWxA

So far Ukraine's counter terrorism plan... It seems they plan on disarming themselves rather then the so called "terrorists"

[Costa Fierro]

The West Russia thinks it can have its cake and eat it too.

Fixed for accuracy.

They think they can flagrantly interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring nations and then they expect Russia "The West" to be a good sport about it.

Also fixed for accuracy. You know, people would take you seriously if you didn't keep spouting pathetic bullshit such as this. Everyone knows that Russia is in the wrong here. It made a bad situation much much worse and it's push Ukraine increasingly towards the EU, which is entirely the opposite of what Moscow wants.

[Respawn]

Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

Eastern Ukraine is home to some of the best soil in Europe (if not the world), and a large number of the Soviet Union's industry, including motor-plants and refineries are located in Eastern Ukraine.

It's probably more important to Ukraine than it is to Russia, but it certainly does hold importance to the latter. Why do you think Putin referred to it as Novorossiya?

[Shofercia]

It is most strange that you would link an article that provides the actual reason of the Ukrainian government's renewed counter-separatist efforts. (Like pro-Russian separatists torturing Ukrainian politicians for example)

What's funny is that if Russia did the exact same thing as Ukraine, Nilfgaard would see it as further proof that Great Leader Putin is STRONK!

And then he complains of the West having double standards.

The "if you can't attack the argument, attack the person" trend proudly continues...

This is completely true. I'm not suggesting that the U.S. is going to do anything, but there are dozens of nations all over Europe who might, if someone else made a move first. Putin does have the balls to do something is he sees the opportunity. I doubt Poland would look forward to being occupied again. Alliances and fear drag more into the conflict. Not necessarily likely, but possible.

No.. not possible at all. If you think Poland is going to be invaded, you really don't know or don't care about Putin's motives.

Poland stronk!

My point was that after Chechnya seceded from the RFSFR, or Russia, it had no issues letting Ingushetia remain a part of Russia, if that was the wish of Ingushetia. Similarly, had the ASSRs and AOs been allowed to secede, if they wanted to, because Dagestan never did, we could've prevented a fuck ton of bloodshed. My other point was that it's unfair to the Abkhaz that the sole reason they lost their SSR was Stalin's paranoia. There's simply no other reason for it. Georgia joined the Russian Empire in 1801, Abkhazia in 1822. Over the decades their systems merged, eventually merging into the TSFSR, but they retained their independent streak. Abkhazia is so fiercely independent, that the being a pro-Russian candidate is considered a negative, unless you served in the military. This isn't like Ossetia, where the major parties are allied with Commies, UR, or my fave, RuNet party. Very cool people.

If you take a group of people who are fiercely independent, who lost a good chunk of that independence due to a Georgian, and they're being subjected to being a part of Georgia, I mean this conflict wasn't hard to predict. When you have a major break up, new states are going to form, i.e. West Virginia. And they're not going to understand why they can't! And quite frankly, it's downright unfair. If the only reason for an action is Stalin's paranoia, it's time to undo the action.

Stalin's actions may have been unjustified, but I don't see that justifying Russia using the Abkhazia issue to further it's national interests. Abkhazia is basically a Russian client state at this point, about 70 percent of their state budget comes from Russian aid, and 90 percent of Abkazians hold Russian passports. Not to mention, Abkhazia plays host to the Russian 131st motorized rifle brigade at the Bombora air base.

If Russia had no strategic interest in Abkhazia after the breakup of the USSR, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't' go about trying to right historic wrongs and so on.

Russia's interest in Abkhazia is the same as Russia's interest in the Caucasus as a whole. In 1988, a war that could've been prevented, caused decades of wars and tens thousands of casualties, with hundreds of thousands people fleeing their homes and becoming refugees in Russia. Putin doesn't want a war in the Caucasus. Recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as placing soldiers there, ensures peace. Russia doesn't have a national interest in Abkhazia. Russia just doesn't want others invading Abkhazia. And one needs to rectify Stalin's wrongs in order for the Caucasus to be stable, since Stalin was (inadvertently or deliberately,) using British Gamesmanship, i.e. "make tribe A hate tribe B, and profit from intertribal warfare." That's been the case with Nagorno-Karabakh. That's been the case with South Ossetia. That's been the case with Abkhazia.

How to explain this to a Westerner... ok you know how a river flows from the mountain to the sea or ocean? Let's say you have tribe A and tribe B fighting over the start of the river. While tribe C uses the river to farm, and is located downriver from A & B. As a result of war, the river ends up being polluted. As thus, in order to keep the river from being polluted and usable for their farms, tribe C will deliver a smack down to either tribe A or tribe B for starting the war.

In Russia's case, it's the river of people. If war hits the Caucasus, where are the refugees going to go? Right, straight into Russia. To their tribe in the Russian North Caucasus. And then their tribe will ask "Russia, what the fuck, why aren't you protecting our people? Do you not want our dedication to peace?" Shortly after Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia and caused 30,000 refugees to flee from South Ossetia, the Ingush-Ossetian tensions, which Putin has been working his ass off to calm, almost flared up. Again. An action taken in another country, caused an almost immediate reaction in Russia. They were directly linked. It's not a matter of Russia looking weak or strong. It's a matter of preventing violence within Russia.

And some might shout, "well, Russia's big, move them to Siberia!" Are the elderly going to move? Nope, young ones might. But if too many young people move, who's going to stay back and care for the elderly? Donald and Daisy? Or are we shipping off elderly Caucasian Refugees who are used to the Caucasian Climate straight to Siberia? Fixing Stalin's idiocy isn't the best solution cause it's awesome. It's the best cause it's the only one that can prevent massive bloodshed or massive refugee crisis.

[Shofercia]

Ukraine is the buffer state. The overthrow doesn't change that. The next election cycle will see everything return to normal. And no, eastern Ukraine is not important. It's a shithole.

Eastern Ukraine is home to some of the best soil in Europe (if not the world), and a large number of the Soviet Union's industry, including motor-plants and refineries are located in Eastern Ukraine.

It's probably more important to Ukraine than it is to Russia, but it certainly does hold importance to the latter. Why do you think Putin referred to it as Novorossiya?

Because it was previously called Novorossiya and he was making a historical appeal.

The West Russia thinks it can have its cake and eat it too.

Fixed for accuracy.

They think they can flagrantly interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring nations and then they expect Russia "The West" to be a good sport about it.

Also fixed for accuracy. You know, people would take you seriously if you didn't keep spouting pathetic bullshit such as this. Everyone knows that Russia is in the wrong here. It made a bad situation much much worse and it's push Ukraine increasingly towards the EU, which is entirely the opposite of what Moscow wants.

Did you think about why it was a bad situation to begin with? Or is everything Russia's fault by default with you?

[Respawn]

Because it was previously called Novorossiya, and he was making a historical appeal.

I know. It's an archaic term, which implies that Russia is the legitimate ruler of that area.