The Official Syria (and all things about it) Thread

[Alien Space Bats]

Just found it funny (maybe tedious?) how they point out to having "thousands" of social media reports, that it somehow adds legitimacy to their claims. I could easily dig up thousands of social media reports that 9/11 was an inside job. That sort of thing.

You're deliberately misreading the report.

Local social media reports of a chemical attack in the Damascus suburbs began at 2:30 a.m. local time on August 21. Within the next four hours there were thousands of social media reports on this attack from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area. Multiple accounts described chemical-filled rockets impacting opposition-controlled areas.

The social media reports are cited as a sign that something was happening on the ground. The report does not rely on these reports to assign blame for the attack; it merely says that the burst of social media traffic is an indicator that an event was under way on the ground — just as there was an upsurge in social media traffic when those two bombs went off in Boston near the end of the Boston Marathon earlier this year.

Attack the report on the basis of what is actually says, not what you imagine that it says.

Yeah, all those sources can confirm that an attack occurred - they are no help in determining responsibility, which is kinda the main issue.

You're ignoring the satellite imagery and communications intercepts. Those are the damning evidence; and at the very least, they'll be released to various members of Congress between now and September 9th.

[Tribes Republic]

Local social media reports of a chemical attack in the Damascus suburbs began at 2:30 a.m. local time on August 21. Within the next four hours there were thousands of social media reports on this attack from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area. Multiple accounts described chemical-filled rockets impacting opposition-controlled areas.

The social media reports are cited as a sign that something was happening on the ground. The report does not rely on these reports to assign blame for the attack; it merely says that the burst of social media traffic is an indicator that an event was under way on the ground — just as there was an upsurge in social media traffic when those two bombs went off in Boston near the end of the Boston Marathon earlier this year.

Attack the report on the basis of what is actually says, not what you imagine that it says.

That is the official White House response to the attack.

What I believe is that someone inside the Syrian Government planed the attack without Bashar al-Assad's knowledge working for opposition inside the government to get the opposition help from outside sources, if that has happened then President Assad has a major problem that will hurt his campaign to take back full control of his country and end the civil war before it spreads to the whole of the Middle East which will happen even if the US doesn't launch a strike or attack, but the real question is what will President Obama do if Congress votes not to launch a strike on Syria, will he stand by their decision or will he launch the strike anyway.

[Souriya Al-Assad]

The social media reports are cited as a sign that something was happening on the ground. The report does not rely on these reports to assign blame for the attack; it merely says that the burst of social media traffic is an indicator that an event was under way on the ground — just as there was an upsurge in social media traffic when those two bombs went off in Boston near the end of the Boston Marathon earlier this year.

Attack the report on the basis of what is actually says, not what you imagine that it says.

That is the official White House response to the attack.

What I believe is that someone inside the Syrian Government planed the attack without Bashar al-Assad's knowledge working for opposition inside the government to get the opposition help from outside sources, if that has happened then President Assad has a major problem that will hurt his campaign to take back full control of his country and end the civil war before it spreads to the whole of the Middle East which will happen even if the US doesn't launch a strike or attack, but the real question is what will President Obama do if Congress votes not to launch a strike on Syria, will he stand by their decision or will he launch the strike anyway.

This too is a good point. I shall keep this in mind.

[Imperializt Russia]

Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013

The United States Government assesses with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs on August 21, 2013. We further assess that the regime used a nerve agent in the attack. These all-source assessments are based on human, signals, and geospatial intelligence as well as a significant body of open source reporting.Our classified assessments have been shared with the U.S. Congress and key international partners. To protect sources and methods, we cannot publicly release all available intelligence – but what follows is an unclassified summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s analysis of what took place.

Syrian Government Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21

A large body of independent sources indicates that a chemical weapons attack took place in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. In addition to U.S. intelligence information, there are accounts from international and Syrian medical personnel; videos; witness accounts; thousands of social media reports from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area; journalist accounts; and reports from highly credible nongovernmental organizations.

A preliminary U.S. government assessment determined that 1,429 people were killed in the chemical weapons attack, including at least 426 children, though this assessment will certainly evolve as we obtain more information.

We assess with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.

Background:

The Syrian regime maintains a stockpile of numerous chemical agents, including mustard, sarin, and VX and has thousands of munitions that can be used to deliver chemical warfare agents.

Syrian President Bashar al-Asad is the ultimate decision maker for the chemical weapons program and members of the program are carefully vetted to ensure security and loyalty. The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) – which is subordinate to the Syrian Ministry of Defense – manages Syria’s chemical weapons program.

We assess with high confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year, including in the Damascus suburbs. This assessment is based on multiple streams of information including reporting of Syrian officials planning and executing chemical weapons attacks and laboratory analysis of physiological samples obtained from a number of individuals, which revealed exposure to sarin. We assess that the opposition has not used chemical weapons.

The Syrian regime has the types of munitions that we assess were used to carry out the attack on August 21, and has the ability to strike simultaneously in multiple locations. We have seen no indication that the opposition has carried out a large-scale, coordinated rocket and artillery attack like the one that occurred on August 21.

We assess that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons over the last year primarily to gain the upper hand or break a stalemate in areas where it has struggled to seize and hold strategically valuable territory. In this regard, we continue to judge that the Syrian regime views chemical weapons as one of many tools in its arsenal, including air power and ballistic missiles, which they indiscriminately use against the opposition.

The Syrian regime has initiated an effort to rid the Damascus suburbs of opposition forces using the area as a base to stage attacks against regime targets in the capital. The regime has failed to clear dozens of Damascus neighborhoods of opposition elements, including neighborhoods targeted on August 21, despite employing nearly all of its conventional weapons systems. We assess that the regime’s frustration with its inability to secure large portions of Damascus may have contributed to its decision to use chemical weapons on August 21.

Preparation:

We have intelligence that leads us to assess that Syrian chemical weapons personnel – including personnel assessed to be associated with the SSRC – were preparing chemical munitions prior to the attack. In the three days prior to the attack, we collected streams of human, signals and geospatial intelligence that reveal regime activities that we assess were associated with preparations for a chemical weapons attack.

Syrian chemical weapons personnel were operating in the Damascus suburb of ‘Adra from Sunday, August 18 until early in the morning on Wednesday, August 21 near an area that the regime uses to mix chemical weapons, including sarin. On August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.

The Attack:

Multiple streams of intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21. Satellite detections corroborate that attacks from a regime-controlled area struck neighborhoods where the chemical attacks reportedly occurred – including Kafr Batna, Jawbar, ‘Ayn Tarma, Darayya, and Mu’addamiyah. This includes the detection of rocket launches from regime controlled territory early in the morning, approximately 90 minutes before the first report of a chemical attack appeared in social media. The lack of flight activity or missile launches also leads us to conclude that the regime used rockets in the attack.

Local social media reports of a chemical attack in the Damascus suburbs began at 2:30 a.m. local time on August 21. Within the next four hours there were thousands of social media reports on this attack from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area. Multiple accounts described chemical-filled rockets impacting opposition-controlled areas.

Three hospitals in the Damascus area received approximately 3,600 patients displaying symptoms consistent with nerve agent exposure in less than three hours on the morning of August 21, according to a highly credible international humanitarian organization. The reported symptoms, and the epidemiological pattern of events – characterized by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers – were consistent with mass exposure to a nerve agent. We also received reports from international and Syrian medical personnel on the ground.

We have identified one hundred videos attributed to the attack, many of which show large numbers of bodies exhibiting physical signs consistent with, but not unique to, nerve agent exposure. The reported symptoms of victims included unconsciousness, foaming from the nose and mouth, constricted pupils, rapid heartbeat, and difficulty breathing. Several of the videos show what appear to be numerous fatalities with no visible injuries, which is consistent with death from chemical weapons, and inconsistent with death from small-arms, high-explosive munitions or blister agents. At least 12 locations are portrayed in the publicly available videos, and a sampling of those videos confirmed that some were shot at the general times and locations described in the footage.

We assess the Syrian opposition does not have the capability to fabricate all of the videos, physical symptoms verified by medical personnel and NGOs, and other information associated with this chemical attack.

We have a body of information, including past Syrian practice, that leads us to conclude that regime officials were witting of and directed the attack on August 21. We intercepted communications involving a senior official intimately familiar with the offensive who confirmed that chemical weapons were used by the regime on August 21 and was concerned with the U.N. inspectors obtaining evidence. On the afternoon of August 21, we have intelligence that Syrian chemical weapons personnel were directed to cease operations. At the same time, the regime intensified the artillery barrage targeting many of the neighborhoods where chemical attacks occurred. In the 24 hour period after the attack, we detected indications of artillery and rocket fire at a rate approximately four times higher than the ten preceding days. We continued to see indications of sustained shelling in the neighborhoods up until the morning of August 26.

To conclude, there is a substantial body of information that implicates the Syrian government’s responsibility in the chemical weapons attack that took place on August 21.As indicated, there is additional intelligence that remains classified because of sources and methods concerns that is being provided to Congress and international partners.

here is the link http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21

map of the area in question http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2013-08-30_map_accompanying_usg_assessment_on_syria.pdf <---right click and open in new tab or window

Oh, fucking come on.
This is your proof, Obama?

I have no fucking words.
None at fucking all.

[Imperializt Russia]

Do not dismiss something just because Monsieur Jones presented himself there a few times.

It's full of conspiracy theories anyway. And why would I want to be interested in those? I want the truth, not a load of bullshit.

Your version of the "truth" that you believe, so vehemently, isn't really any more "true" since it's based on wishy-washy assessments and carefully-selected non-committal buzzwords.

It doesn't prove anything. It doesn't really assert anything with any real confidence.

Oh please. The facts are out there elsewhere, I even picked some of this up in the WIki Leaks site.

So you're taking the word of a transsexual and a rapist as gospel now? And just when I think you couldn't be more desperate to discredit yourself.

That's just out of order, kid.

Think of it this way. Imagine me leading a platoon. I'm happy. I just got a promotion, and I'm about to move from platoon leader to company leader, taking my platoon with me. My men love me. I keep them safe. And so we're patrolling, and we encounter what looks like an entrance to tunnels. Tunnels where the enemy hides.

Now these specific tunnels have chemical weapons in storage. But I don't know that. My men don't know that. So I yell in Arabic, "any civilians please come out!" or however my interpreter translates that phrase. And we wait. Hearing no movement for fifteen minutes, I try to look in, using a Scout's Looking Tube. (It's like a mini-naval periscope.) I see nothing. So I figure, "better safe than sorry", give the civvies another warning, wait fifteen more mins, and lob in a grenade.

BOOM!

Did I have any intent, whatsoever, to ignite a chemical depot? Should I be in front of the ICC for Human Rights Crimes? Obviously not. That's kind of what happened here.

Should a man who fires a gun at a child running through his backyard because he thought it was a murderer come to kill him not go on trial? I see them as one in the same. I may or may not have sympathy for the person in question, but justice must be served.

That's not the same, because the man made the conscious decision to shoot a person. His base intent was to kill.

[Shofercia]

Yeah, I'm not seeing much proof there. If Syria used chemical weapons before, wouldn't the regime know their effectiveness? And if that's the case, why not just take the area after the chemical attacks, and clean it up? Why must they shell it to clean it up?

Let's say you were to make a mess in your room. Wouldn't it be wiser to use a vacuum cleaner than a mortar? I'm sorry, I'm just not buying the "they shelled the area to destroy traces of chemical weapons" line. Additionally, if that was the case, then how come the UN inspectors claim that they managed to gather data?

Look Obama, I voted for you, and I supported you in Afghanistan. But I'm not going to support this, nor campaign for Democrats if you carry this out. This isn't evidence. It's bullshit. Crap like this is going to drive people to be apolitical, and to disapprove of the government, so unless you're trying to prove the maxim "the government that governs best, is one that governs least", I'm going to need much better proof, or no intervention.

[Costa Alegria]

Your version of the "truth" that you believe, so vehemently, isn't really any more "true" since it's based on wishy-washy assessments and carefully-selected non-committal buzzwords.

My "version of the truth"? My version of the truth is that no one has correctly identified who had conducted the attack, if it was indeed deliberate, and going in without a proper assessment of the situation is an idiotic way to respond to this. I say let the UN do their jobs, let them announce their findings and then act accordingly. Preferably acquiring support from Russia for a UN force to intervene, stop the fighting and decommission any and all chemical weapons.

Or is that too wishy-washy and non-committal for your liking?

It doesn't prove anything. It doesn't really assert anything with any real confidence.

And what is this supposed to be?

That's just out of order, kid.

Kid? So we're throwing petty insults into the mix of nonsensical bullshit now? Great. Just when I thought we can get a reasoned debate out of at least one poster in this thread that isn't easily misled by bullshitting conspiracy theorists.

[Imperializt Russia]

Well, belittling someone for being trans is a pretty low fucking blow.

[Costa Alegria]

Well, belittling someone for being trans is a pretty low fucking blow.

And? What? You expect me to apologise?

[Imperializt Russia]

Well, belittling someone for being trans is a pretty low fucking blow.

And? What? You expect me to apologise?

I kind of do, since it's an irrelevant detail and frankly offensive.

[Luveria]

Well, belittling someone for being trans is a pretty low fucking blow.

And? What? You expect me to apologise?

I do.

I'm transgender and I'm wondering why you would belittle someone for being trans, or what that detail had to do with the rest of your post. Was it to take a potshot at trans people when it had nothing to do with the discussion?

[Costa Alegria]

I kind of do, since it's an irrelevant detail and frankly offensive.

I'm not going to. I don't see why I should apologise to someone I don't even know or why you're getting offended on their behalf. And quite frankly, I don't even know why you're defending someone for supporting a murderous dictator anyway.

I'm transgender and I'm wondering why you would belittle someone for being trans.

I'm not. I was belittling the person for being a fuckwit and the poster for believing every single thing that just so happens to remotely coincide with whatever convoluted ideology they have.

Was it to take a potshot at trans people when it had nothing to do with the discussion?

No.

[Imperializt Russia]

Then why did it have to be brought up?

[Costa Alegria]

Then why did it have to be brought up?

I would try to think of an excuse but I can't be arsed. And anyway, how is this relevant to Syria? I've told you what I stated I think the truth is and what should happen.

[Imperializt Russia]

Then why did it have to be brought up?

I would try to think of an excuse but I can't be arsed. And anyway, how is this relevant to Syria? I've told you what I stated I think the truth is and what should happen.

Well, you brought up that Chelsea was trans in the same sentence as saying that her opinion was worthless, and lumped her in with "a rapist", implying you're being disparaging to the pair of them.

At no point did the fact they were trans have to be brought up.

The list of other terms you could have used to be disparaging was innumerable.

Traitor, spy, agent, terrorist, seditionist, leaker, criminal - but no, you picked trans, out of the hat.

[Imperializt Russia]

Apparently, about seventy five minutes ago, Russian air defence radars detected two "ballistic objects" launched toward the "eastern Mediterranean" from "the central part of the sea".

?

wat

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/ ... AC20130903

[Maineiacs]

Yeah, I'm not seeing much proof there. If Syria used chemical weapons before, wouldn't the regime know their effectiveness? And if that's the case, why not just take the area after the chemical attacks, and clean it up? Why must they shell it to clean it up?

Let's say you were to make a mess in your room. Wouldn't it be wiser to use a vacuum cleaner than a mortar? I'm sorry, I'm just not buying the "they shelled the area to destroy traces of chemical weapons" line. Additionally, if that was the case, then how come the UN inspectors claim that they managed to gather data?

Look Obama, I voted for you, and I supported you in Afghanistan. But I'm not going to support this, nor campaign for Democrats if you carry this out. This isn't evidence. It's bullshit. Crap like this is going to drive people to be apolitical, and to disapprove of the government, so unless you're trying to prove the maxim "the government that governs best, is one that governs least", I'm going to need much better proof, or no intervention.

this^^^^

[Costa Alegria]

Apparently, about seventy five minutes ago, Russian air defence radars detected two "ballistic objects" launched toward the "eastern Mediterranean" from "the central part of the sea".

?

wat

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/ ... AC20130903

Aww shit. This is going to end well.

[Beta Test]

Apparently, about seventy five minutes ago, Russian air defence radars detected two "ballistic objects" launched toward the "eastern Mediterranean" from "the central part of the sea".

?

wat

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/ ... AC20130903

No. That's not good.

[Great Nepal]

Apparently, about seventy five minutes ago, Russian air defence radars detected two "ballistic objects" launched toward the "eastern Mediterranean" from "the central part of the sea".

?

wat

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/ ... AC20130903

So, I guess that's the French acting up...

[Costa Alegria]

Wasn't Obama seeking approval from Congress first?

Edit: The Israelis aren't aware of any objects? False alarm?

[Imperializt Russia]

Well, the Russian embassy in Syria has said there hasn't been any evidence of a missile attack as yet.
Not sure when that statement was made, but seventy-five minutes flight time would put a Tomahawk halfway through its maximum range - maybe closing on 1300km

Assuming "the central part of the sea" means that bit around Sicily, Greece and Libya then that's a range of maybe 1800km to Damascus.

[Souseiseki]

Edit: The Israelis aren't aware of any objects? False alarm?

yeahhhhhhhhh...

we have literally no idea what these are or, dare we say, if they actually exist

so (this isn't aimed at you specifically) i'd honestly suggest that everyone just go get a cup of tea or something because there's a 90% chance that anything you say and all your speculation is going to look really really silly in 3 hours (never mind 3 days)

[Beta Test]

Israeli military "not aware" of any incident

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/us-syria-crisis-russia-defence-idUSBRE9820AC20130903

[Imperializt Russia]

Israeli military "not aware" of any incident

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/us-syria-crisis-russia-defence-idUSBRE9820AC20130903

The article makes no mention of that statement.