US Gen. Election Thread VI: You've Got E-Mail

[Camicon]

You don't need IUA's help on that front.

0/10

Good sir! Your witty barb has cut me to the quick! I shall know not the sweet embrace of laughter for a fortnight! Nay, the velvet embrace of melancholic regret shall be my only mistress o'er this cold winter moon!

[IceBuddha]

Trump's not even white though.

Isn't he of German/Aryan descent?

AFAIK he is Oompla-Loompamerican

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Flipping one does not matter. He can win all 4 and he still loses.

That's not quite what I was saying though -- I'm saying that if he wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, as polls seem to indicate, how do we know he won't flip one of the states that are now in the margin of error, like New Hampshire?

The likelihood of taking all the swing states, plus a state more or two is highly unlikely.

His biggest problem are the swing states. Its a dead heat in the polls right now in Florida and North Carolina, and he is leading ever so slightly in Nevada, Iowa and Arizona. Clinton has racked up pretty significant early vote leads in these states, not to mention, has an extremely professional ground game to get out the vote. I would not be surprised if she wins most of the seing states, or even just a couple.

Trump has no margin for error here. He needs a perfect run in states that have been either tied or leaning Hillary all year. He has 5 days left to do this.

When it comes to Clinton's firewall, the likeliest set up would be either a win in Colorado or New Hampshire + Maine's 2nd. While both are plausible, neither are likely.

I will stress this though. In close states where the vote is only a percent or two off, ground game is critical. Clinton has the groundgame that David Plouffe created for Obama, and its skill is noted in the effect it had on 2012, where most analysts have acknowledged that the superior GOTV team on Obama's side helped swing lots of close races to the Dems.

I think, if there is a polling error it could be towards Clinton if anything.

[Yasuragi]

That's not quite what I was saying though -- I'm saying that if he wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, as polls seem to indicate, how do we know he won't flip one of the states that are now in the margin of error, like New Hampshire?

The likelihood of taking all the swing states, plus a state more or two is highly unlikely.

His biggest problem are the swing states. Its a dead heat in the polls right now in Florida and North Carolina, and he is leading ever so slightly in Nevada, Iowa and Arizona. Clinton has racked up pretty significant early vote leads in these states, not to mention, has an extremely professional ground game to get out the vote. I would not be surprised if she wins most of the seing states, or even just a couple.

Trump has no margin for error here. He needs a perfect run in states that have been either tied or leaning Hillary all year. He has 5 days left to do this.

When it comes to Clinton's firewall, the likeliest set up would be either a win in Colorado or New Hampshire + Maine's 2nd. While both are plausible, neither are likely.

I will stress this though. In close states where the vote is only a percent or two off, ground game is critical. Clinton has the groundgame that David Plouffe created for Obama, and its skill is noted in the effect it had on 2012, where most analysts have acknowledged that the superior GOTV team on Obama's side helped swing lots of close races to the Dems.

I think, if there is a polling error it could be towards Clinton if anything.

I do dearly hope that there is an error that underestimates Clinton's actual support... it's just when people start talking about intangibles such as 'ground game' it makes me nervous in the face of polls showing a shift towards Trump.

Goodness, this is really going to be a stressful week.

[Kravanica]

0/10

Good sir! Your witty barb has cut me to the quick! I shall know not the sweet embrace of laughter for a fortnight! Nay, the velvet embrace of melancholic regret shall be my only mistress o'er this cold winter moon!

Take it easy. You're trying way too hard.

[Zurkerx]

That's not quite what I was saying though -- I'm saying that if he wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, as polls seem to indicate, how do we know he won't flip one of the states that are now in the margin of error, like New Hampshire?

The likelihood of taking all the swing states, plus a state more or two is highly unlikely.

His biggest problem are the swing states. Its a dead heat in the polls right now in Florida and North Carolina, and he is leading ever so slightly in Nevada, Iowa and Arizona. Clinton has racked up pretty significant early vote leads in these states, not to mention, has an extremely professional ground game to get out the vote. I would not be surprised if she wins most of the seing states, or even just a couple.

Trump has no margin for error here. He needs a perfect run in states that have been either tied or leaning Hillary all year. He has 5 days left to do this.

When it comes to Clinton's firewall, the likeliest set up would be either a win in Colorado or New Hampshire + Maine's 2nd. While both are plausible, neither are likely.

I will stress this though. In close states where the vote is only a percent or two off, ground game is critical. Clinton has the groundgame that David Plouffe created for Obama, and its skill is noted in the effect it had on 2012, where most analysts have acknowledged that the superior GOTV team on Obama's side helped swing lots of close races to the Dems.

I think, if there is a polling error it could be towards Clinton if anything.

We should remember though that Trump has outperformed his poll numbers during the primaries. While I expect he'll do that, it won't be enough to meet her.

[Ashmoria]

I think anyone would love to have a third term for Obama.

I'd rather have Clinton, she'll be easier to impeach

if the house stays in republican control I expect them to impeach her once a month or so.

[Novus America]

That's not quite what I was saying though -- I'm saying that if he wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, as polls seem to indicate, how do we know he won't flip one of the states that are now in the margin of error, like New Hampshire?

The likelihood of taking all the swing states, plus a state more or two is highly unlikely.

His biggest problem are the swing states. Its a dead heat in the polls right now in Florida and North Carolina, and he is leading ever so slightly in Nevada, Iowa and Arizona. Clinton has racked up pretty significant early vote leads in these states, not to mention, has an extremely professional ground game to get out the vote. I would not be surprised if she wins most of the seing states, or even just a couple.

Trump has no margin for error here. He needs a perfect run in states that have been either tied or leaning Hillary all year. He has 5 days left to do this.

When it comes to Clinton's firewall, the likeliest set up would be either a win in Colorado or New Hampshire + Maine's 2nd. While both are plausible, neither are likely.

I will stress this though. In close states where the vote is only a percent or two off, ground game is critical. Clinton has the groundgame that David Plouffe created for Obama, and its skill is noted in the effect it had on 2012, where most analysts have acknowledged that the superior GOTV team on Obama's side helped swing lots of close races to the Dems.

I think, if there is a polling error it could be towards Clinton if anything.

Which is something I do no understand with Trump. He actually has a lot of (misguided maybe but still there) grassroots support, especially in the Rust Belt. He could have built a great ground game, but never even tried. The guy is an amateur. Hilary is not.

[Ashmoria]

no it is ALL the fault of the congressional republicans. they have chosen party over country and have tried their best to hold back economic recovery.

we HAVE recovered by it is less and slower than it would have been if they had given Obama the same cooperation that they gave bush.

Way to be part of the problem, not the solution. More hyperparisan ship is part of the problem. Also the Congress has worked with Obama a lot, and much better than it did in the 90s.

Plus Obama has not proposed all good things either. And has not stood up enough to China, which is our number one economic problem (Mexico is not though).

yeah ME *I* am hyper partisan because I want the republicans to do the fucking business of the country.

[Gauthier]

0/10

Good sir! Your witty barb has cut me to the quick! I shall know not the sweet embrace of laughter for a fortnight! Nay, the velvet embrace of melancholic regret shall be my only mistress o'er this cold winter moon!

[Sad Harpsichord Music Intensifies]

[Gauthier]

Isn't he of German/Aryan descent?

AFAIK he is Oompla-Loompamerican

How dare you slander Oompa Loompas! They've never cheated people!

[Ashmoria]

I'll be voting for the first time ever today. May God have mercy on our souls.

congratulations!

[Great Franconia and Verana]

The likelihood of taking all the swing states, plus a state more or two is highly unlikely.

His biggest problem are the swing states. Its a dead heat in the polls right now in Florida and North Carolina, and he is leading ever so slightly in Nevada, Iowa and Arizona. Clinton has racked up pretty significant early vote leads in these states, not to mention, has an extremely professional ground game to get out the vote. I would not be surprised if she wins most of the seing states, or even just a couple.

Trump has no margin for error here. He needs a perfect run in states that have been either tied or leaning Hillary all year. He has 5 days left to do this.

When it comes to Clinton's firewall, the likeliest set up would be either a win in Colorado or New Hampshire + Maine's 2nd. While both are plausible, neither are likely.

I will stress this though. In close states where the vote is only a percent or two off, ground game is critical. Clinton has the groundgame that David Plouffe created for Obama, and its skill is noted in the effect it had on 2012, where most analysts have acknowledged that the superior GOTV team on Obama's side helped swing lots of close races to the Dems.

I think, if there is a polling error it could be towards Clinton if anything.

I do dearly hope that there is an error that underestimates Clinton's actual support... it's just when people start talking about intangibles such as 'ground game' it makes me nervous in the face of polls showing a shift towards Trump.

Goodness, this is really going to be a stressful week.

I'm in thsame boat, id much rather see polls that show Clinton leading by 20 points, but the GOP voter is that stupid I guess.

While I normally would not be making ground game a big deal, in this election, I think it will be a decisive factor. Clinton has one of the most professional teams and organizations in history, while Trump has Trump. He literally has no ground game. He doesnt have a single office in Arizona.

Large rallies =\= lots of votes.
Ask Bernie Sanders, George McGovern and Walter Mondale about this phenomenon.

[Camicon]

Good sir! Your witty barb has cut me to the quick! I shall know not the sweet embrace of laughter for a fortnight! Nay, the velvet embrace of melancholic regret shall be my only mistress o'er this cold winter moon!

Take it easy. You're trying way too hard.

If that's what you call a try-hard then your expectations are far too low.

[Novus America]

Way to be part of the problem, not the solution. More hyperparisan ship is part of the problem. Also the Congress has worked with Obama a lot, and much better than it did in the 90s.

Plus Obama has not proposed all good things either. And has not stood up enough to China, which is our number one economic problem (Mexico is not though).

yeah ME *I* am hyper partisan because I want the republicans to do the fucking business of the country.

No, you think the Republicans must agree with you 100% or else. They have a right to disagree you know.

[Noahs Second Country]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

[Freefall11111]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

Imagine this:
Unicorns are real

About as likely as your hypothetical.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

About as likely as Anthony Wiener becoming President

[Thermodolia]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

Imagine this:
Unicorns are real

About as likely as your hypothetical.

Unicorns being real is a higher possibility than that happening.

[Thermodolia]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

If the House becomes deadlocked the Senate would decide. So our president would either be Kaine or Pence

[Ashmoria]

yeah ME *I* am hyper partisan because I want the republicans to do the fucking business of the country.

No, you think the Republicans must agree with you 100% or else. They have a right to disagree you know.

no I don't. I think they need to work with the other side to do the business of the country.

they refuse to.

how many hearings have they had on the presidents supreme court nominee?

[Freefall11111]

Rick Wilson still insists the two big leaks he has talked about for a month haven't come out, and that the timing isn't up to him.

[Waldriech]

If McMullin wins Utah, it just strengthens Clinton's chances.

[Novus America]

No, you think the Republicans must agree with you 100% or else. They have a right to disagree you know.

no I don't. I think they need to work with the other side to do the business of the country.

they refuse to.

how many hearings have they had on the presidents supreme court nominee?

Umm literally hundreds of laws have been passed under Obama. They have worked with the other side. I agree they should hold a hearing on the supreme court nominee and a up or down vote, but you are moving the goal posts. That has not be the cause of our sluggish economy.

[Novus America]

Imagine this:
McMullin wins Utah
Neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270 votes.
It goes to the House
The House is divided
They go for the vanilla option: McMullin

As awesome as that would be, it is not going to happen.