Eastern Pacific News Service

[Xoriet]

You are fantastic, Loop

[Nalt]

East Pacific News Service
A Whole New Provost
Written by Bach

Starting today, nominations are open for the election of a new Provost, the speaker of the TEP Magisterium. Current Provost A Slanted Black Stripe, having served already 3 consecutive terms, has stated not to run for another term.

It is not unknown that the position of Provost is one that comes with a lot of work and responsibility in TEP's system, as the Magisterium has a vital and central role to the policies and politics of TEP. It will be interesting to see which Magister steps up to take on this important task.

East Pacific News Service

Congrats on an AMAZING three terms ASBS! Seriously, it is so impressive how efficiently votes were handled all of that time, I've been around for a long time and been in a lot of regions, you were one of the most dutiful heads of a legislature I have seen. I'm glad I got to serve with you for so long! I haven't had any time to keep up with anything, but I wish the new Provost the best of luck at filling some big shoes!

[TEP CAEK]

Numbers and Elections: A study by God-Emperor
Written by: God-Emperor

Unibot Elected Delegate In The Rejected Realms
On Tuesday, 29 April 2013 at 10:05 AM EDT, less than an hour within the writing of this article, the poll closed in The Rejected Realms. After the results are certified, Unibot, former Chief Of Band of the United Defenders League and current Media Officer of TRR, will be installed as the World Assembly Delegate of the region. He defeats CrazyGirl, former Rejected Realms Army Commander and noted Dutch Game Moderator, by a margin of 14-9 or with 64% of the vote.

However, the issue with the election hasn’t been the results, but how they came about and what is to come. Regions have threatened to close relations with TRR, if he becomes delegate, because of the status Unibot holds in their own region. Some have even implied that imperialist, like the United Imperialist Armed Forces, support Unibot’s delegacy so they can declare war on the region. Now that Unibot has been elected, the world will have to wait and see how the politics play out.

Others have strongly implied that Unibot was stuffing the ballot box, as it were, by piling new citizens into the region on his behalf. While campaigning via personal message or telegram is neither illegal nor discouraged in TRR, it appears to critics as egotistical at best and downright coercive at worst. This article will attempt to show whether or not those fears are justified.

Method
The article will evaluate two explanatory variables of TRR’s electorate: the number of posts the citizen voting had at the time the polls closed and the date the citizen first applied for citizenship. Further studies should use the number of posts the citizen posts between the acceptance of their most recent citizenship and the casting of their vote, and, as the reader may have guessed, the date the most recent citizenship was accepted.

That being said, the response variables explained by the aforementioned variables are the average constituent of CrazyGirl and Unibot, respectively, which will be represented by a mean and median within a calculated range, and the mean number of posts per day since the citizen first applied for citizenship, both of which can and will be referred to periodically throughout the remainder of this article as ‘clout,’ not to be confused with soft power or influence.

As a follow on note, both of these explanatory and response variables will be compared and contrasted to a comparable case study of similar sample size.

The Rejected Realms Election
First, the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for CrazyGirl is 7,334, and the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Unibot is 11,647. Posts posted by citizens voting for Unibot accounted for 62% of the posts posted by citizens voting, 59% more than the number of posts posted by citizens voting for CrazyGirl. While the quality versus quantity argument cannot be answered by the data available, averages can be use to discount the effects cause by any outliers.

If the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for CrazyGirl is divided by the number of citizens voting for CrazyGirl, nine, a mean of 815 posts per citizen voting for CrazyGirl is reached, and, if the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Unibot is divided by the number of citizens voting for Unibot, fourteen, a mean of 832 posts per citizen voting for Unibot is reached, only a 2% difference despite the 59% difference in the gross number of posts posted by citizens voting.

However, the median number of posts posted by the nine citizens voting for CrazyGirl is 633 posts posted, and the median number of posts posted by the fourteen citizens voting for Unibot is 253 posts posted, 150% less than the median posts posted by citizens voting for CrazyGirl. This change in the percentage difference between the mean number and median numbers is possibly due to curbing the effects of any outliers present in the data set, and to further examine this possibility, the range may be examined.

The range of CrazyGirl’s data set is 2203 posts posted, and the range of Unibot’s data set is 4522 posts posted, 105% more than the range of CrazyGirl’s data set, and, in light of the mean and median numbers of Unibot’s data set, fences set up in the data set using the interquartile range (IQR) can be used to show that there are statistically significant outliers in the third, or upper, quartile (Q3) of the data.

The Rejected Realms Electorate
In order to give some context to these numbers, they will now be compared to another election and electorate to explore any commonalities between the two. However, before beginning, one more data point will be introduced in an effort to further reduce any ambiguity in the conclusion of the article.

The date of citizens posting their first application for citizenship was retrieved from the citizenship application threads, and the mean number of posts posted per day since citizenship is found by dividing the total number of posts posted by the number of days since posting their first application for citizenship. This is broken down into a simple metric showing which citizens have posted at a rate of less than or equal to one post posted per day and which citizens have posted at a rate of greater than one post posted per day since applying for their citizenship.

26% of the citizens voting in the election posted at a rate of more than one post per day over the course of their citizenship and the remaining 74% posted at a rate of one post per day or less over the course of their citizenships. Of the 26% of citizens who posted at a rate of more than one post per day, 83% voted for Unibot, or 22% of the total.

Observation And Replication
With that said, The East Pacific’s November 2013 delegate election between Bachtendekuppen, Hobbes and Prussia is an adequate foil to the election in question for a number of reasons.

First, it was an open election with no incumbent delegate in the running. However, in the final analysis, Prussia, with one vote, will be excluded, as the single vote can be deemed statistically insignificant to the election, as a whole, and it has the additional bonus of avoiding any spoiler effect between the two major candidates.

Second, after also excluding the abstentions exercised by all three of the candidates, the sample is both of sufficient size and composition to compare favorable to TRR’s election with 33 votes cast and a final tally of 20-13, or 65%-35%, only a 1% difference from the election in the first case study. As an aside, abstentions will be included in the analysis of the entire electorate due to its minimal impact on the rest of the overall study.

Third, not only is the forum itself old enough to establish the date citizens first applied for citizenship, the forums are of similar age and citizenship in the modern era began at a similar time, allowing for both a similar number of posts for nations of similar age, and, as such, a similar rate of posting for citizens over the course of their citizenship. In order to further demonstrate the validity of the comparison beyond the aforementioned point, this point will be established first.

The East Pacific Electorate
Eight of the citizens voting in the election, or 24%, posted at a rate of more than one post per day over the course of their citizenship and the remaining 76% posted at a rate of one post per day or less over the course of their citizenship, only a 2% difference from the election in the first case study. Of the 24% of citizens who posted at a rate of more than one post per day, 50% vote for Bachtendekuppen or 60%of the non-abstentions, 12% and 9% of the total, respectively.

With the amazing similarity of both the electorate and the election results outlined above, the output of the explanatory variables will comprise the balance of the body of the article.

The East Pacific Election
The total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Bachtendekuppen is 18,948, and the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Hobbes is 1,691. Posts posted by citizens voting Bachtendekuppen accounted for 89% of the posts posted by citizens voting, 1121% more than the number of posts posted by citizens voting for Hobbes.

If the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Bachtendekuppen is divided by the number of citizens voting for Bachtendekuppen, twenty, a mean of 947 posts per citizen voting for Bachtendekuppen is reached, and, if the total number of posts posted by citizens voting for Hobbes is divided by the number of citizens voting for Hobbes, thirteen, a mean of 130 posts per citizen voting for Hobbes is reached, a 628% difference.

The median number of posts posted by the twenty citizens voting for Bachtendekuppen is 290 posts posted, and the median number of posts posted by the thirteen citizens voting for Hobbes is 23, 1161% less than the median posts posted by citizens voting for Bachtendekuppen.

The range of Bachtendekuppen’s data set is 4144 posts posted, and the range of Hobbes data set is 660 posts posted, 528% less than the range of Bachtendekuppen’s data set, and fences set up in the data set using the IQR show that there are statistically significant outliers in Q3.

Analysis
Despite the incredible congruencies between the two case studies electorates and elections, the explanatory variables seem to diverge remarkable. However, reasonable conclusions may be drawn from the data. First, it can be seen that a legitimate victor in an election is likely to have a total and mean number of posts posted by the citizens voting for them greater than the number of posts posted by the citizens voting for their opponent, which both Unibot and Bachtendekuppen had.

The discrepancy in the median number of posts posted by citizens voting for the ultimately successful candidate in the two samples may be explained by the concept of clout briefly described in the lead of this article.

Clout Explained
In the first election there were citizens with enough clout to raise the total and mean number of posts posted by the citizens voting for the successful candidate, but, in the first set of data, there were enough citizens voting for the candidate with little enough clout to drive those citizens with so much clout outside of the standard distribution.

While there are also citizens who voted for the Bachtendekuppen who were more than one standard deviation from the median in the second data set, there were the correct amounts of citizens with both a small and large amount of clout to cause an equal distribution of clout throughout the data set. This theory is borne out by the similarities of the range of Unibot and Bachtendekuppen’s two data sets in spite of the dissimilarities between their total numbers of posts posted by citizens voting for them.

Conclusion
In closing, while the numbers are not 100% conclusive, TRR’s election does not, at first glance, appear to be any more or less legitimate than TEP’s November 2013 election. While there were more members with less clout voting for Unibot than CrazyGirl, there were enough members with the proper amount that it does not, in and of itself, serve to delegitimize the election on its own. However, any future reviews of the content of the posts could manage to disprove some of the assertions made herein.
For a spread sheet containing the raw data, personal message God-Emperor in The East or West Pacific, or telegram The Fourth Imperium.

TL;DR Version

The mean voter in The Rejected Realms election had 825 posts, first applied for citizenship on 6 June 2012, and posted one post per day or less since first applying for their citizenship, and the median voter in TRR’s election had 440 posts, first applied for citizenship on 4 April 2012, and posted one post per day or less since first applying for their citizenship. The mean voter in TRR’s election voting for Unibot had 832 posts, first applied for citizenship on 20 November 2012, and posted one post per day or less since first applying for their citizenship, and the median voter voting for Unibot in TRR’s election had 253 posts, first applied for citizenship on 23 February 2013 and posted one post per day or less since first applying for their citizenship. The average voter that voted for Unibot was newer and posted less than the average voter overall, but not so much less that it invalidates the election.

East Pacific News Service

[Sedgistan]

Interesting article, and a good read.

While campaigning via personal message or telegram is neither illegal nor discouraged in TRR, it appears to critics as egotistical at best and downright coercive at worst.

This is nothing unusual in TRR (I know, because I did exactly the same during my election campaign, as well as during other key votes when I was more involved). Different regions have different cultures - and while TRR is somewhat less "political" than many other regions - no parties, judiciaries, and not overly legalistic, it is part and parcel of elections that candidates may choose to campaign in this way. Not that it matters all that much, since your analysis of the voters has pretty much swept away any criticisms about the voter base for either candidate.

[The Grim Reaper]

Did you consider using any other GCR elections (or, God Emperor forbid, UCR elections) in the place of The East Pacific for the purposes of this article, and if so, are there specific reasons you did not use them, and equally could have used them, instead of TEP, besides your prior mentioned criteria?

[Mallorea and Riva]

While I really enjoy this type of article I can't help but feel as though the simple issue of sample size is the elephant in the room. I'm looking forward to seeing what future replications say.

[The Blaatschapen]

While I really enjoy this type of article I can't help but feel as though the simple issue of sample size is the elephant in the room. I'm looking forward to seeing what future replications say.

It's very easy to increase the sample size for the next TRR election.

Just eject more.

[Glen-Rhodes]

I would suggest plugging the data into R and doing some type of linear regression, if you're trying to see the relationship between number of posts and who they voted for. Mean and median don't paint a clear picture of correlation.

Sample size also doesn't matter here. EPNS isn't trying to extrapolate data from a sample to an entire population. They have data on the entire population.

[The Grim Reaper]

While I really enjoy this type of article I can't help but feel as though the simple issue of sample size is the elephant in the room. I'm looking forward to seeing what future replications say.

It's very easy to increase the sample size for the next TRR election.

Just eject more.

#Mall4TNP Delegate + Vice Delegate + Speaker.

For Science.

[Frattastan II]

The method annoys me.

A couple of Unibot's voters (Dominion, RFSU Sierra 124), respectively with a post count of 3 and 4, have been among the most active and recognisable contributors to our Regional Message Board in the last year, kept regular communication with the Delegate and have shown remarkable loyalty and responsiveness when the region was degraded by spammers or threatened by invaders.
They may not be interested in the day-to-day activities that the forum offers, but I don't feel this makes them less legitimate as voters, especially when I doubt Unibot has contacted them (or is even familiar with them), or deprives them of their right to choose their Delegate. This can be applied to other people as well, but I chose those two voters as they are the most outstanding examples.

That uninformed observers could mistakenly label them as 'pilers' or doubt their commitment to the RR is a sad consequence of a culture which accepts forum posting as the only legitimate measure of loyalty, and ignores the existence of subcommunities which are equally entitled to vote, few posts or not. I doubt playing forum games or running for office makes someone more loyal than a soldier who dutily takes part in missions for the regional army (but does little else), or a resident who reliably provides a WA endorsement to its delegate, or a RMB poster.
It's funny that, in the eyes of many, a player who is very involved in the in-game region should have less say on how the region is run than a citizen with many posts who logs only once every 60 days.

Forum 'piling' exists, but it's not something you will usually stereotypically identify with 'new citizens with no posts'.

[Venico]

While I really enjoy this type of article I can't help but feel as though the simple issue of sample size is the elephant in the room. I'm looking forward to seeing what future replications say.

It's very easy to increase the sample size for the next TRR election.

Just eject more.

o7 On it Sheep

[Cormac A Stark]

It's funny that, in the eyes of many, a player who is very involved in the in-game region should have less say on how the region is run than a citizen with many posts who logs only once every 60 days.

The issue you have is that those who run for Delegate in forum-based elections are usually most active in the off-site forum community, sometimes not very active at all in the in-game community. When you have voters who aren't active in the forum community, they may know little to nothing about a candidate running for Delegate. The simple fact of the matter is that the average forum participant is going to know a lot more about a candidate for Delegate than the average issue answerer.

This is not even to mention that most regional governance, both domestic and foreign, is in fact related to off-site forum communities rather than the in-game region. Should an issue answerer have less say in who gets to run a government primarily related to a forum community than those who are actually members of that community? Obviously. The truth is that the difference between a CrazyGirl Delegacy versus a Unibot Delegacy would probably have very little impact on an issue answerer and RMB poster, but it could have a huge impact on members of the forum community.

[The Fourth Imperium]

Did you consider using any other GCR elections (or, God Emperor forbid, UCR elections) in the place of The East Pacific for the purposes of this article, and if so, are there specific reasons you did not use them, and equally could have used them, instead of TEP, besides your prior mentioned criteria?

I did consider usin' other GCR elections, namely The South Pacific and Osiris, but, due to the newness of both of their current forums, I went with TEP. I didn't consider usin' any UCR elections as it feels like comparin' apples to oranges, but I'm a consummate feederite. By all means read feederite bias into the article, if ya feel it necessary, but I attempted to be as impartial as possible.

[Mallorea and Riva]

The truth is that the difference between a CrazyGirl Delegacy versus a Unibot Delegacy would probably have very little impact on an issue answerer and RMB poster, but it could have a huge impact on members of the forum community.

To be fair the issue answerers and RMB posters probably wouldn't notice that much of a difference between a Mallorean Delegacy vs either of those two either in TRR

[Unibot III]

The method annoys me.

A couple of Unibot's voters (Dominion, RFSU Sierra 124), respectively with a post count of 3 and 4, have been among the most active and recognisable contributors to our Regional Message Board in the last year, kept regular communication with the Delegate and have shown remarkable loyalty and responsiveness when the region was degraded by spammers or threatened by invaders.
They may not be interested in the day-to-day activities that the forum offers, but I don't feel this makes them less legitimate as voters, especially when I doubt Unibot has contacted them (or is even familiar with them), or deprives them of their right to choose their Delegate. This can be applied to other people as well, but I chose those two voters as they are the most outstanding examples.

That uninformed observers could mistakenly label them as 'pilers' or doubt their commitment to the RR is a sad consequence of a culture which accepts forum posting as the only legitimate measure of loyalty, and ignores the existence of subcommunities which are equally entitled to vote, few posts or not. I doubt playing forum games or running for office makes someone more loyal than a soldier who dutily takes part in missions for the regional army (but does little else), or a resident who reliably provides a WA endorsement to its delegate, or a RMB poster.
It's funny that, in the eyes of many, a player who is very involved in the in-game region should have less say on how the region is run than a citizen with many posts who logs only once every 60 days.

Forum 'piling' exists, but it's not something you will usually stereotypically identify with 'new citizens with no posts'.

I agree insofar as typing infrequent posters, "illegitimate" voters are not contributive towards to the legitimacy of an election can be a mis-characterization. As Frattastan says, some residents may not be an active forum member but a dedicated veteran, every GCR has these kinds of players. Likewise, some players actively post - but are they loyal members? You can't tell that from a post count.

Overall I liked the analysis but I'm not sure it comes to any tangible conclusions.

[Cormac A Stark]

To be fair the issue answerers and RMB posters probably wouldn't notice that much of a difference between a Mallorean Delegacy vs either of those two either in TRR

I think this is probably true, which is my point.

[Whiskum]

Some have even implied that imperialist, like the United Imperialist Armed Forces, support Unibot’s delegacy so they can declare war on the region. Now that Unibot has been elected, the world will have to wait and see how the politics play out.

To clarify, the United Imperial Armed Forces is an imperialist military structure consisting of the component militaries of the LKE, TNI and Albion. Its purpose is to provide a unified and formal chain of command for planning and executing those operations which they perform acting collectively.

The UIAF is not a sovereign state but a military framework which exists to serve the interests of the LKE, TNI and Albion through these operations. As such, the UIAF as a military structure will not be declaring war on anyone. It serves the foreign policies of its members. It does not create new policy.

In relation to The Rejected Realms, it is a member-region of the FRA. The LKE and TNI are already at war with the FRA, including all member-regions.

As to the quixotic selection of Unibot as one of my successors, the voters of TRR are sending their own message to the world and it is not a good one.

[Evil Wolf]

Forum 'piling' exists, but it's not something you will usually stereotypically identify with 'new citizens with no posts'.

Oh? Did it exist in the past TRR elections and, if so, who was doing the piling?

[Frattastan II]

I wouldn't know that, but it's a possibility we are vigilant about.

[The Blaatschapen]

I wouldn't know that, but it's a possibility we are vigilant about.

I hereby will note that I've thought about reviving my forum account on TRR forums, which has not been logged in since late 2005.

[Drop Your Pants]

I hereby will note that I've thought about reviving my forum account on TRR forums, which has not been logged in since late 2005.

But then we'd have your new IP....

[SFBA Campinia]

As to the quixotic selection of Unibot as one of my successors, the voters of TRR are sending their own message to the world and it is not a good one.

Congratulations on your very unique view on history.

[Pyravar]

How exactly is Empreror Onder's view unique?

[Unibot III]

As to the quixotic selection of Unibot as one of my successors, the voters of TRR are sending their own message to the world and it is not a good one.

So... your occupation of our region for a grand total of twelve hours gives you the legitimacy to consider yourself a "predecessor"? One who has the right to decide who is a good candidate and who is not?

With those kinds of rude assumptions, I think we all know who is sending bad messages and it is not the voters of TRR.

[Whiskum]

Congratulations on your very unique view on history.

On the contrary, our view on history is precisely the same as that shown in the history of The Rejected Realms supplied by the game:

2 years 91 days ago: The TNI Empire of Oud-Heverlee Leuven elected WA Delegate (ending The Retired Delegate of Collector of Souls's reign after 5 days).

So... your occupation of our region for a grand total of twelve hours gives you the legitimacy to consider yourself a "predecessor"?

You seem to be unusually and needlessly disturbed by the making of a simple factual statement.

If A is the impending Delegate of TRR and B was previously the Delegate of TRR, it follows therefore that A will become one of B's successors.

It really is quite straightforward. Indeed, one of your own successors, as Chief of the UDL, is on the record acknowledging the accuracy of such basic facts.

Aside from the question of 'legitimacy' being altogether separate, no one is obliged to accept your attempt to control what constitutes 'legitimacy'.

One who has the right to decide who is a good candidate and who is not?

So no one other than a former Delegate, and moroever one deemed to have 'legitimacy' according to you at that, has a right to offer an opinion do they?

If TRR is sending a message to the world by choosing someone with your background as their Delegate, then others have a right to reply to that message.

With those kinds of rude assumptions, I think we all know who is sending bad messages and it is not the voters of TRR.

If you wish to perceive rudeness in such mild and incidental observations of recorded facts, then naturally you may do so.

Set against your alternative of denying reality over such simple points, I expect the world has more to judge about TRR's message in electing you.