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Eternal Harmony - Cup of Harmony 90 Bid

A battle ground for the sportsmen and women of nations worldwide. [In character]
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Valanora
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Eternal Harmony - Cup of Harmony 90 Bid

Postby Valanora » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:05 am

Valanora CoH 90 Bid


Invite Criteria
To be eligible to be invited to the tournament, the VSC will be looking for at minimum a roster and RPs in three RP windows. This may be lowered to two RP windows if needed to get more favorable contestant numbers for the format.

Format
The preferred format would be X groups of 4 teams each. At this time I am estimating between 24 and 32 entries into the tournament and thus would necessitate the use of best X third placed sides making it into the Round of Sixteen, from where it will proceed as a straight knockout competition. Other formats will be considered but those would likely require need additional qualifying method such a best X of X placed sides.

Formula and RP Bonus
One of the unique approaches this bid is going to take is that it is going to use the KPB+ rankings to determine pots, but the starting scorination rank will be the bons from the World Cup Qualifiers, which the hosts of the World Cup have already agreed to provide. Following this, as the tournament was originally created as a tournament for those who RPed well but missed out on the Finals, there will be a substantial and cumulative RP bonus being used. Quality will be valued over the quantity of RPs, such that if you posts multiple RPs per window they will be judged as a single RP. SQIS will be the formula used with xkoranate modifiers, but style modifiers will be limited to +-3 rather than +-5.

Tiebreakers
For teams that finish tied on points, the following tiebreakers will be used in order, and if multiple teams are tied they will be applied to eliminate a team and then reapplied until the tie is broken
1. Head to head
2. Goal difference
3. Wins
4. IC Coin Flip (match scored with pure RP bonus)

AI Policy
The use of AI for text will not be allowed with the exception of it being used to translate. AI images must be disclosed to receive credit for them.

Experience
The user behind Valanora is one of the most decorated and experienced hosts in the sub-forum, having hosted over a dozen WCC events, IFCF events, the Hui La, the Copa de Campones, the Hockey Champions League, multi time host of conferences in both NSCF and NSCAA, host of the DBC, as well as numerous regional and other sporting events.
World Cup 40, 42, 43, 52, & 61 Champions
WC 47, 51, 94 (2nd), WC 34, 38, 39, 41, 44, 45, 53, 60, 67, 92 (3rd), WC 49, 58, 87, 90 (Semifinalist), WC 33, 35-37, 46, 48, 54, 55, 62, 63, 65, 72, 83, 85, 86, 88, 91 (Quarterfinalist)
WCoH VII, VIII, XVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII (1st), WCoH I, XXXI, XL (2nd), WCoH II, XXIX (3rd), WCoH XII (4th)
AOCAF 44, 46, 51, 53, 65, 68 Champions, AOCAF 39, 43, 55, 59, 64 Runners Up
Co-Hosted: too many events to count

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Hapilopper
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Postby Hapilopper » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:42 am

Hey! I like this, but I was curious, why are style modifiers limited to +-3 instead of +-5?
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Libesia
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Postby Libesia » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:48 am

I may be misinterpreting one or the other bid, or more probably both, but I thought the whole point of the WC hosts' RP bonus system was that it wasn't cumulative, so wouldn't using the RP bonus from the WC for this create a massive imbalance towards people who happened to RP on the final day of qualifying?

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Valanora
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Postby Valanora » Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:31 pm

Hapilopper wrote:Hey! I like this, but I was curious, why are style modifiers limited to +-3 instead of +-5?

Because there is evidence to suggest that extreme modifiers, particularly on the defense side, actually do change results even when using xkora's modifiers. If it wasn't such a wrench in our traditions, I would even think about running the tournament sans modifiers a la the UICA/IFCF. However without concrete evidence of the suggestion and as a way to still keep in tradition with our sub-forum, have merely shrunk the use range as a middle ground.

Libesia wrote:I may be misinterpreting one or the other bid, or more probably both, but I thought the whole point of the WC hosts' RP bonus system was that it wasn't cumulative, so wouldn't using the RP bonus from the WC for this create a massive imbalance towards people who happened to RP on the final day of qualifying?

The bonus would be extrapolated out to a way that if it would have been cumulative or the more time consuming option if that proves too troublesome I will simply go through and regrade the WCQ myself to arrive at that starting number.
World Cup 40, 42, 43, 52, & 61 Champions
WC 47, 51, 94 (2nd), WC 34, 38, 39, 41, 44, 45, 53, 60, 67, 92 (3rd), WC 49, 58, 87, 90 (Semifinalist), WC 33, 35-37, 46, 48, 54, 55, 62, 63, 65, 72, 83, 85, 86, 88, 91 (Quarterfinalist)
WCoH VII, VIII, XVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII (1st), WCoH I, XXXI, XL (2nd), WCoH II, XXIX (3rd), WCoH XII (4th)
AOCAF 44, 46, 51, 53, 65, 68 Champions, AOCAF 39, 43, 55, 59, 64 Runners Up
Co-Hosted: too many events to count

EPL Season 20,073

I am that which I am and choose to be.

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Delaclava
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Postby Delaclava » Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:06 pm

Valanora wrote:Because there is evidence to suggest that extreme modifiers, particularly on the defense side, actually do change results even when using xkora's modifiers. If it wasn't such a wrench in our traditions, I would even think about running the tournament sans modifiers a la the UICA/IFCF. However without concrete evidence of the suggestion and as a way to still keep in tradition with our sub-forum, have merely shrunk the use range as a middle ground.


In your WC92 bid with SRS, you also stated that extreme modifiers may skew results. Multiple users asked you for evidence of this claim; you and SRS withdrew the bid and no proof was provided. Are you willing now to provide the data and/or evidence that supports this claim?
Sports Honor Roll
Football: 2x WORLD BOWL CHAMPIONS (13 & 15), 1x Runner-up (11), 4x Third Place (41-44), 1x Regional Champions
Hockey: World Cup 16 Third Place, 2x World Juniors Champion (18 & 22), 3x World Junior Runners-up (16, 17, 19), 1x Regional Silver
Basketball: 2x IBC Runners-up (31 and 36), 4x Regional Medal (1 Silver, 3 Bronze)
Lacrosse: 2x Worlds Runners-up (16 and 41) 1x Regional Silver
Soccer: Olympic Gold (V), 3rd at IAC 18 3rd at Di Bradini Cup 15, 4th at Baptism of Fire 34
Host of WC 55; CoH 44, 46, 84, and 87; BoF 72; World Bowl 11, 15, 39, and 43; IBC 7 and 31; AOCAF 31; WJHC 16 and 18; etc. Founder of Scott Cup and World Team Tennis Championship.

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Valanora
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Postby Valanora » Thu Jan 16, 2025 2:19 pm

Delaclava wrote:
Valanora wrote:Because there is evidence to suggest that extreme modifiers, particularly on the defense side, actually do change results even when using xkora's modifiers. If it wasn't such a wrench in our traditions, I would even think about running the tournament sans modifiers a la the UICA/IFCF. However without concrete evidence of the suggestion and as a way to still keep in tradition with our sub-forum, have merely shrunk the use range as a middle ground.


In your WC92 bid with SRS, you also stated that extreme modifiers may skew results. Multiple users asked you for evidence of this claim; you and SRS withdrew the bid and no proof was provided. Are you willing now to provide the data and/or evidence that supports this claim?

I don't have concrete evidence as I have not had the time to run the hundreds of thousands of simulations to prove it, but I have runs thousands of simulations where those with -5 modifiers would wind up with results far more favorably than those with +5. There are other users who have had same suspicion but I suspect like me they have not had the time to prove without a shadow of a doubt that this is the case.
World Cup 40, 42, 43, 52, & 61 Champions
WC 47, 51, 94 (2nd), WC 34, 38, 39, 41, 44, 45, 53, 60, 67, 92 (3rd), WC 49, 58, 87, 90 (Semifinalist), WC 33, 35-37, 46, 48, 54, 55, 62, 63, 65, 72, 83, 85, 86, 88, 91 (Quarterfinalist)
WCoH VII, VIII, XVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII (1st), WCoH I, XXXI, XL (2nd), WCoH II, XXIX (3rd), WCoH XII (4th)
AOCAF 44, 46, 51, 53, 65, 68 Champions, AOCAF 39, 43, 55, 59, 64 Runners Up
Co-Hosted: too many events to count

EPL Season 20,073

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Alasdair I Frosticus
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Postby Alasdair I Frosticus » Thu Jan 16, 2025 2:38 pm

Valanora wrote: If it wasn't such a wrench in our traditions, I would even think about running the tournament sans modifiers a la the UICA/IFCF.


You're a highly respected and very experienced host, and yours is now the only CoH bid on the table.

I'd still vote for you if you wanted to give it a try as a once-off experiment.
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Delaclava
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Postby Delaclava » Thu Jan 16, 2025 3:24 pm

Valanora wrote:I don't have concrete evidence as I have not had the time to run the hundreds of thousands of simulations to prove it, but I have runs thousands of simulations where those with -5 modifiers would wind up with results far more favorably than those with +5. There are other users who have had same suspicion but I suspect like me they have not had the time to prove without a shadow of a doubt that this is the case.


I'm not asking for an absolute, mathematically rigorous proof; the data and summary of the tests you've previously run, or a new smaller-scale test, would go a long way to showing that this claim is plausible, and more than mere speculation or "vibes".

Otherwise, it would be more honest to state that it's just a personal preference of yours for the scorelines that limited or no style modifiers generate. It's a preference I and likely others would disagree with, but can at least acknowledge and make an informed choice when voting. But when others are certain to bid with the full -5 to +5 range, please don't mislead those who might not know any better that there is some problem with that extended range - when that's a theory that, without any data, appears to be entirely unproven.
Sports Honor Roll
Football: 2x WORLD BOWL CHAMPIONS (13 & 15), 1x Runner-up (11), 4x Third Place (41-44), 1x Regional Champions
Hockey: World Cup 16 Third Place, 2x World Juniors Champion (18 & 22), 3x World Junior Runners-up (16, 17, 19), 1x Regional Silver
Basketball: 2x IBC Runners-up (31 and 36), 4x Regional Medal (1 Silver, 3 Bronze)
Lacrosse: 2x Worlds Runners-up (16 and 41) 1x Regional Silver
Soccer: Olympic Gold (V), 3rd at IAC 18 3rd at Di Bradini Cup 15, 4th at Baptism of Fire 34
Host of WC 55; CoH 44, 46, 84, and 87; BoF 72; World Bowl 11, 15, 39, and 43; IBC 7 and 31; AOCAF 31; WJHC 16 and 18; etc. Founder of Scott Cup and World Team Tennis Championship.

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Valanora
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Postby Valanora » Thu Jan 16, 2025 3:56 pm

This is a short experiment that is not substantial enough to prove absolutely, but it lines up with the same experiments I've ran in the past as it has produced similar results

Home Advantage, Additive Modifiers, Max Rank = 0, All Teams = 0 rank
SQIS Formula

-5 vs 0

P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Defensestan 1000 388 254 358 905 859 +46 1418
2 Neutraland 1000 358 254 388 859 905 −46 1328


+5 vs 0

P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Neutraland 1000 388 244 368 2104 2074 +30 1408
2 Takilstan 1000 368 244 388 2074 2104 −30 1348


NSFS Formula

-5 vs 0

P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Neutraland 1000 393 263 344 855 799 +56 1442
2 Defensestan 1000 344 263 393 799 855 −56 1295


+5 vs 0

P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Neutraland 1000 365 275 360 2045 1995 +50 1370
2 Takilstan 1000 360 275 365 1995 2045 −50 1355


As you can see in the SQIS examples, the -5 modifier produces more favorable results than +5 modifier does regardless of the formula that is used. All other things being equal, extreme negative modifiers give an added chance of pulling a result than any other modifier does. This data is nearly the same as when I ran it years before and why I have advocated for small modifier ranges for the past few years. As a scorinator in the IFCF where modifiers are not used, I have also observed a more neutral outcome than in the events where I am a host with modifiers and teams with similar ranks play each other. While the margin is not supremely overwhelming it is there and should be combated as best possible.

-edit-

I had a bit more time so I ran the expirement a few more times to give more substantial data, the results are as follows.

SQIS Formula

-5 v 0
P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Neutraland 1000 384 255 361 866 861 +5 1407
2 Defensestan 1000 361 255 384 861 866 −5 1338

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 393 245 362 901 868 +33 1424
2 Neutraland 1000 362 245 393 868 901 −33 1331

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 373 271 356 903 904 −1 1390
2 Defensestan 1000 356 271 373 904 903 +1 1339

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 387 238 375 893 863 +30 1399
2 Neutraland 1000 375 238 387 863 893 −30 1363

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 410 243 347 897 834 +63 1473
2 Neutraland 1000 347 243 410 834 897 −63 1284


+5 v 0
P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Takilstan 1000 396 227 377 2108 2063 +45 1415
2 Neutraland 1000 377 227 396 2063 2108 −45 1358

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 377 255 368 2048 2087 −39 1386
2 Takilstan 1000 368 255 377 2087 2048 +39 1359

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 375 286 339 2062 2026 +36 1411
2 Takilstan 1000 339 286 375 2026 2062 −36 1303

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 391 224 385 2116 2105 +11 1397
2 Takilstan 1000 385 224 391 2105 2116 −11 1379

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 387 248 365 2118 2092 +26 1409
2 Takilstan 1000 365 248 387 2092 2118 −26 1343


NSFS Formula

-5 v 0
P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Defensestan 1000 382 248 370 881 844 +37 1394
2 Neutraland 1000 370 248 382 844 881 −37 1358

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 371 273 356 844 811 +33 1386
2 Neutraland 1000 356 273 371 811 844 −33 1341

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 367 267 366 813 807 +6 1368
2 Defensestan 1000 366 267 367 807 813 −6 1365

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 390 266 344 888 831 +57 1436
2 Neutraland 1000 344 266 390 831 888 −57 1298

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Defensestan 1000 391 258 351 880 831 +49 1431
2 Neutraland 1000 351 258 391 831 880 −49 1311


+5 v 0
P Testlandia              Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 Neutraland 1000 373 274 353 2028 2011 +17 1393
2 Takilstan 1000 353 274 373 2011 2028 −17 1333

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Takilstan 1000 382 246 372 2047 2056 −9 1392
2 Neutraland 1000 372 246 382 2056 2047 +9 1362

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Takilstan 1000 381 253 366 2023 1999 +24 1396
2 Neutraland 1000 366 253 381 1999 2023 −24 1351

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 384 270 346 2037 1977 +60 1422
2 Takilstan 1000 346 270 384 1977 2037 −60 1308

Testlandia Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Neutraland 1000 372 261 367 2040 2063 −23 1377
2 Takilstan 1000 367 261 372 2063 2040 +23 1362
Last edited by Valanora on Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
World Cup 40, 42, 43, 52, & 61 Champions
WC 47, 51, 94 (2nd), WC 34, 38, 39, 41, 44, 45, 53, 60, 67, 92 (3rd), WC 49, 58, 87, 90 (Semifinalist), WC 33, 35-37, 46, 48, 54, 55, 62, 63, 65, 72, 83, 85, 86, 88, 91 (Quarterfinalist)
WCoH VII, VIII, XVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII (1st), WCoH I, XXXI, XL (2nd), WCoH II, XXIX (3rd), WCoH XII (4th)
AOCAF 44, 46, 51, 53, 65, 68 Champions, AOCAF 39, 43, 55, 59, 64 Runners Up
Co-Hosted: too many events to count

EPL Season 20,073

I am that which I am and choose to be.

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Audioslavia
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Postby Audioslavia » Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:13 pm

I've nothing against capping modifiers at -3 and +3. I've done the same when hosting a previous tournament. I can't remember why exactly. It wasn't because I thought it would skew results.

ESF and I talked about this theory a few years ago. I never got round to performing what I'm told is the best way to test the scorinator, which would be to run 3,000 match scorinations about fifty times (I'm not sure why. This is according to a message from ESF about what Asto had suggested. Asto being knowledgeable about these things)

My interest was piqued by it coming up again so I booted up xkoranate and set it to do a 10,000-matchday league between a -5 and a 0.

SQIS additive modifiers, minimum skill 0, maximum 30, both teams set to 15, Maxrank 30. No home bonus. Three points for a win. Jan 17th 2025.

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 0 10000 3640 2818 3542 7563 7492 +71 13738
2 -5 10000 3542 2818 3640 7492 7563 −71 13444


I don't have the xkoranate or read-outs from the last time I did the test, but I do apparently have the screenshots still. They're in the spoiler below.

Test from April 6th 2021:
Image
Image


I don't have the mathematical chops to analyse these results.

EDIT: Oh, please be advised, it takes literally fifteen minutes for xkoranate to process 10,000 scores. At least for my computer.

EDIT 2:
Pld      W     D     L      GF     GA     GD     Pts 
1 -5 1000 389 271 340 804 745 +59 1438
2 0 1000 340 271 389 745 804 −59 1291

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 0 1000 379 246 375 764 757 +7 1383
2 -5 1000 375 246 379 757 764 −7 1371

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 -5 1000 367 284 349 776 754 +22 1385
2 0 1000 349 284 367 754 776 −22 1331

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 0 1000 380 294 326 780 721 +59 1434
2 -5 1000 326 294 380 721 780 −59 1272

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 -5 1000 361 283 356 759 774 −15 1366
2 0 1000 356 283 361 774 759 +15 1351

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 -5 1000 377 276 347 783 745 +38 1407
2 0 1000 347 276 377 745 783 −38 1317

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 -5 1000 390 263 347 775 748 +27 1433
2 0 1000 347 263 390 748 775 −27 1304

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 0 1000 360 296 344 789 760 +29 1376
2 -5 1000 344 296 360 760 789 −29 1328

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 -5 1000 353 298 349 743 746 −3 1357
2 0 1000 349 298 353 746 743 +3 1345

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 0 1000 361 280 359 779 775 +4 1363
2 -5 1000 359 280 361 775 779 −4 1357
Last edited by Audioslavia on Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Delaclava
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Postby Delaclava » Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:32 pm

ESF, thank you for taking the time to perform and share your testing with us. From this data and from some simulations I have run in the last 30 minutes or so, I'm not sold on the claim (in some part because it appears rank might be having some odd interaction with all of this), but I can admit there's something here that's worth further discussing and experimenting. So I do appreciate you coming forward and standing by this issue.
Sports Honor Roll
Football: 2x WORLD BOWL CHAMPIONS (13 & 15), 1x Runner-up (11), 4x Third Place (41-44), 1x Regional Champions
Hockey: World Cup 16 Third Place, 2x World Juniors Champion (18 & 22), 3x World Junior Runners-up (16, 17, 19), 1x Regional Silver
Basketball: 2x IBC Runners-up (31 and 36), 4x Regional Medal (1 Silver, 3 Bronze)
Lacrosse: 2x Worlds Runners-up (16 and 41) 1x Regional Silver
Soccer: Olympic Gold (V), 3rd at IAC 18 3rd at Di Bradini Cup 15, 4th at Baptism of Fire 34
Host of WC 55; CoH 44, 46, 84, and 87; BoF 72; World Bowl 11, 15, 39, and 43; IBC 7 and 31; AOCAF 31; WJHC 16 and 18; etc. Founder of Scott Cup and World Team Tennis Championship.

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Libesia
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Postby Libesia » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:04 am

Valanora wrote:
Libesia wrote:I may be misinterpreting one or the other bid, or more probably both, but I thought the whole point of the WC hosts' RP bonus system was that it wasn't cumulative, so wouldn't using the RP bonus from the WC for this create a massive imbalance towards people who happened to RP on the final day of qualifying?

The bonus would be extrapolated out to a way that if it would have been cumulative or the more time consuming option if that proves too troublesome I will simply go through and regrade the WCQ myself to arrive at that starting number.

OK, thanks.

FWIW I think you're probably fine to cap modifiers at whatever you like if you host but the wider conversation about whether or not extreme modifiers affect scorination is probably worth having separate to this bid.


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