I'm also in the process of writing other papers, although most are much less finished. The only other paper that has had greater progress put to it than this one is quite a bit longer and more controversial, so I will save that for another time.
Let me know what you think.
The future of both Israel and Palestine are headed on a course that will see either their dramatic transformation or total destruction. Israel is currently experiencing a firm shift to the right as a result of demographic trends that were previously suppressed, in large part, by immigration. Religious Jews are experiencing fertility rates that are much greater than secular Jews and Arab Israelis. The group with the highest fertility, by far, are the Ultra-Orthodox, who have an astonishing 6.64 children per woman.
The rising population of Ultra-Orthodox presents several problems for the Israeli government, as the group is exempt from the military draft and receive money from the government to pursue religious study. The Ultra-Orthodox possess disproportionate influence in the halls of power, most especially the Chief Rabbinate of Israel. Their influence has drawn staunch opposition from secular Jews, especially the "Russian Jews," a misnomer referring to Jews who immigrated to Israel from the Soviet Union. This political conflict has lead to intense instability in Israel, and will continue to for the foreseeable future.
The second Jewish group that is on the rise as a result of demographic shifts are the Religious Zionists, who are a threat to Israeli internal stability and to the future of Palestine. They have already captured substantial influence in the government thanks to their positions in the Prime Minister's cabinet. They are also strong proponents of settlements and are committed to the annexation of the West Bank (which they call Judea and Samaria). Historically, they have conducted terror attacks and political assassinations much to the condemnation of Israelis. Unfortunately, American citizens have had a hand in these attacks, as terrorists like Baruch Goldstein were American immigrants to Israel. Even today, a disproportionate number of American immigrants to Israel are making their way to the settlements located deep within the West Bank, suggesting that support for Religious Zionism is being grown in America and exported to Israel.
The settlements of the West Bank will likely never be removed due to the political changes in Israel and the fact that there are economic incentives for non-radical Israelis to move there. The cost of living in the West Bank settlements are much lower than in Israel, so many people move to those settlements that are right across the border. The people in the settlements far deeper in the West Bank are mainly composed of Religious Zionists, who are known to harass Palestinians in their towns, villages, and cities.
With political crises like the Judaical Reform Bill from last year, it is clear that the polarization of the religious and secular Jews is growing intensely. The religious Jews and self-interested political figures like Netanyahu are attempting to concentrate more power in the Knesset that they control and especially the prime minister. The weakening of the Judiciary means that the Ultra-Orthodox controlled Chief Rabbinate will have much greater freedom to enforce strict rules over Israeli Jews. The Religious Zionists will also have much greater freedom to enact their policies, including ones that would violate human rights and civil liberties. On top of all of this political instability is the reality that Israel lacks a well-detailed constitution, meaning that the powers of each of the government's branches are vaguely defined. This all leaves the door open for an autocrat to assume power in Israel with the backing of the Ultra-Orthodox and Religious Zionist factions.
If Israel falls into some form of autocracy, it is unclear whether the United States will continue to support the country. Lawmakers have indicated that their primary reason for supporting Israel is because it is a democratic nation. Will Israel be vulnerable if the US withdraws their support, or even starts supporting the Palestinians? It is also unclear what will happen to the Palestinians should Israel choose to fully annex the West Bank, which it would most certainly do if the Religious Zionists are part of the autocratic government. Will the Palestinians be granted Israeli citizenship, or will they end up a stateless people like the Rohingya?
Whatever happens in the coming decades, it will likely not be to the benefit of the Israeli nor Palestinian people.
