Hypothetical: Californian Secession

[Infected Mushroom]

Please consider the following hypothetical:

A few months from now, California (with popular support inside the state) unilaterally secedes from the United States of America, in the process declaring the ascendency of a second Trump presidency to be unacceptable. California also actively urges other states to do the same.

In such a scenario, what would happen next?

Would there be a civil war or would California be allowed to peacefully leave? Could California function as an independent country? How does this change the geopolitical landscape?

In my view the USA would likely respond with military force to replace the seceding government with an interim pro-Union government (while trying to minimize civilian collateral in their operations). California has over 10 percent of the entire US GDP, they couldn’t just let it go. The Californian forces would be able to hold their own in a few pitched battles but the USA’s forces would eventually prevail.

The economic fallout would be massive and the US economy would likely suffer severe repercussions taking many years to recover. I think California could feasibly function as its own nation since it’s so technologically advanced and has high tech agriculture. However, the American Empire wouldn’t allow this sort of secession out of fear that other states could also leave.

[Floofybit]

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outloo ... f?v=2260.2
That's the biggest citrus producer in the U.S. If the U.S. doesn't go to war to get it back, I will.

[Kostane]

The only scenario in which other states join California is if the entire West Coast secedes, which would have a devastating impact on Western trade. However, that seems highly unlikely (then again, so does this hypothetical). A Northeastern secession would be a possibility, but those states would not last very long in secession. California only stands a chance because it would be harder to mobilize the army to reach there. And, I doubt the army would actually be deployed against California. More likely, the navy would be used to blockade California, or some other pressure applied to encourage them to rejoin. The independent California would not be sustainable long-term. Infrastructure is far too interconnected for any U.S. state besides Alaska or Hawaii to become really independent.

[The Two Jerseys]

Loyalist Californians will dynamite the aqueducts supplying the secessionist cities with water. The secessionists will immediately realize they've fucked up.

[Port Carverton]

The Californian Soviet Republic is declared a few moments after secession

[Adamede]

Such claims to secession are partisan driven, not nationalististic or identiarian, which in Californians case means failure to control the inland or winning their support. I really don’t see it being successful. Especially when much of their water comes from out of state.

[My Holy Cushion]

I love that California is standing up to Trump! VIVA NEWSOME!

[Untecna]

California fails and is forced to rejoin the Union to survive. The only thing that changes on this conclusion when applied to different states is how bad the consequences would be.

[Stellar Colonies]

Calexit is a stupid concept which would only bring ruin to both us and the rest of the US. It should not be allowed to progress beyond the category of “silly joke”.

[Diarcesia]

This is as silly as a hypothetical Texas secession.

[Ethel mermania]

The US digs up zombie William Tecumseh Sherman, and they march on Sacramento

[Kerwa]

Well they already have a good national anthem, arguably better than the US one, but no, California should stay. Washington State on the other hand…

[Floofybit]

Well they already have a good national anthem, arguably better than the US one, but no, California should stay. Washington State on the other hand…

That's more good fruit we'd lose

[Kerwa]

Well they already have a good national anthem, arguably better than the US one, but no, California should stay. Washington State on the other hand…

That's more good fruit we'd lose

Apparently eastern Washington grows the best cherries in the world, but they all get shipped to Asia. It’s like most of the US’s best beef gets exported while cheaper beef is imported for Americans.

[Narland]

Please consider the following hypothetical:

A few months from now, California (with popular support inside the state) unilaterally secedes from the United States of America, in the process declaring the ascendency of a second Trump presidency to be unacceptable. California also actively urges other states to do the same.

In such a scenario, what would happen next?

Would there be a civil war or would California be allowed to peacefully leave? Could California function as an independent country? How does this change the geopolitical landscape?

In my view the USA would likely respond with military force to replace the seceding government with an interim pro-Union government (while trying to minimize civilian collateral in their operations). California has over 10 percent of the entire US GDP, they couldn’t just let it go. The Californian forces would be able to hold their own in a few pitched battles but the USA’s forces would eventually prevail.

The economic fallout would be massive and the US economy would likely suffer severe repercussions taking many years to recover. I think California could feasibly function as its own nation since it’s so technologically advanced and has high tech agriculture. However, the American Empire wouldn’t allow this sort of secession out of fear that other states could also leave.

The US system of Federalism allows for a lot of leeway for States and Governors to stump and soapbox to their hearts content. The State executive and legislature may even haggle over Federal policy and whether or not they will follow which policy and to what degree (Sanctuary Cities for instance). We are technically a Union of 50 States under the state of the United States (the Federal Government), and Federal troops have only had to be called in on relatively rare occasions.

I don't think the federal troops will come storming into California. Also I don't think they won't leave the Union, but they will drag their feet over Trump's policies, throw some issues to the Supreme court to settle. By the time Trump is out of office there might even be a different administration in California, but probably not a different set of political machines. Newsom may even consider the Presidency for 2028 and it will be Idaho's governor that sputters and rattles his potatoes at the then president.

California could function as an independent country, but would be separated from the Federalism that allows for untaxed trade and commerce to and through other states. This is important because California would now be subject to tariffs and what trading partner status it would hold. This could greatly diminish its ranking as a world power. If the US decided that it was a rogue state, California would not have access to US infrastructure to export its products. It would also have to spend its own money to build a fleet.

Mexico might have an ally as they would share similar view on the role of government. Oregon and Washington would benefit greatly as would Burlington Northern and Union Pacific. The importance of Missoula, Spokane and Seattle would increase for the US, as would Salt Lake City, Twin Falls, Boise and all those towns along I-84 to Portland. Traffic may even increase along southern Oregon from Ontario through to Prineville and to Eugene and Coos Bay.

[Almighty Biden]

The US digs up zombie William Tecumseh Sherman, and they march on Sacramento

War is cruelty, but goshdarn it, we want our Silk almond milk!

[Floofybit]

That's more good fruit we'd lose

Apparently eastern Washington grows the best cherries in the world, but they all get shipped to Asia. It’s like most of the US’s best beef gets exported while cheaper beef is imported for Americans.

This is tyranny

[Nu Elysium]

NCR when?

[Siluvia]

California would not successfully secede, I bet it would be recaptured within the day.

There are millions of loyal and patriotic Americans in California; one thing a lot of people forget is that there are huge swathes of rural and farming areas that are very Republican, it’s just that their voices are drowned out by the big cities like L.A. and San Francisco. Heck, even Silicon Valley seemed to shift toward the Republicans this year. Republicans would rather die than let traitors break apart America, we fought a civil war once before to stop Dems seceding and we’d do it again.

[My Holy Cushion]

California would not successfully secede, I bet it would be recaptured within the day.

There are millions of loyal and patriotic Americans in California; one thing a lot of people forget is that there are huge swathes of rural and farming areas that are very Republican, it’s just that their voices are drowned out by the big cities like L.A. and San Francisco. Heck, even Silicon Valley seemed to shift toward the Republicans this year. Republicans would rather die than let traitors break apart America, we fought a civil war once before to stop Dems seceding and we’d do it again.

Are you posting in character? Conservatives left the first time and liberals faught them. It's also funny because Republicans have begged them to leave. California will leave, you won't stop them and they will be better off.

[Urine Town]

Apparently eastern Washington grows the best cherries in the world, but they all get shipped to Asia. It’s like most of the US’s best beef gets exported while cheaper beef is imported for Americans.

This is tyranny

Seconded. We need to make our diets great again. We need to stop exporting our genetically superior cows and cherries and import our food from a Chinese dictator who refuses to learn English because of how unpatriotic he is towards his people or our beautiful planet

[New Kvenland]

No bias, but not only would we successfully secede, we would repel the now foreign American incursion and push them back to the Rockies. The peace treaty would -- no, will -- be signed in Denver, now the easternmost city in the Greater Californian Empire.

[Floofybit]

This is tyranny

Seconded. We need to make our diets great again. We need to stop exporting our genetically superior cows and cherries and import our food from a Chinese dictator who refuses to learn English because of how unpatriotic he is towards his people or our beautiful planet

I think you forgot to change accounts

No bias, but not only would we successfully secede, we would repel the now foreign American incursion and push them back to the Rockies. The peace treaty would -- no, will -- be signed in Denver, now the easternmost city in the Greater Californian Empire.

Call it Deseret, give me 90% fruit shares, and we have a deal

[Urine Town]

No bias, but not only would we successfully secede, we would repel the now foreign American incursion and push them back to the Rockies. The peace treaty would -- no, will -- be signed in Denver, now the easternmost city in the Greater Californian Empire.

All jokes aside, we still need you, California. I feel bad for how disrespected the state has become. Neoliberal state and local governance has been incompetent, and the Republicans say they will fix it but we know they won’t. But at the same time, it’s just so goddamn beautiful. Yosemite. Redwoods. Shasta. Joshua Tree. La Jolla and Torrey Pines. That alone is soft power, and I will not back down on that argument

[Stellar Colonies]

California would not successfully secede, I bet it would be recaptured within the day.

There are millions of loyal and patriotic Americans in California; one thing a lot of people forget is that there are huge swathes of rural and farming areas that are very Republican, it’s just that their voices are drowned out by the big cities like L.A. and San Francisco. Heck, even Silicon Valley seemed to shift toward the Republicans this year. Republicans would rather die than let traitors break apart America, we fought a civil war once before to stop Dems seceding and we’d do it again.

Are you posting in character? Conservatives left the first time and liberals faught them. It's also funny because Republicans have begged them to leave. California will leave, you won't stop them and they will be better off.

California is deeply integrated into this country and trying to rip ourselves out from that larger whole would cripple us. It would be a horrendous mistake.