Broken Stoplights(A German Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

Well, I said the other thread wouldn't likely be for the federal election, and that election now seems ready to go. After the FDP left the Traffic Light Government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week, Germany is going to the polls on Sunday, February 23. The government has been seen as lacklustre facing the issues of inflation, immigration, and security, and extremist parties such as AfD are now gaining footholds in the West. On top of this, the gains of the far-left BSW in three Eastern States back in September may just be a prelude to them annihilating Die Linke as a political entity in the East. This thread will discuss that election(and some regular news and possibly the Hamburg State vote as well). Right now, polls have AfD surging into second place while the classic conservative standard bearers in CDU/CSU are poised to take the lead with Merz becoming chancellor of a likely GroKo with SPD. The FDP, meanwhile, looks poised for a full-on shut out.

Here's how it'll go down. It's a little bit different this time than previous elections, because the government passed a significant reform in 2023 that made some changes. the Bundestag is now permanently fixed at 630 members equally divided between FPTP constituencies and state-level PR list seats chosen by Sainte-Lague with a 5% threshold. Overhang and leveling seats have been abolished nationwide, as has the constituency seat rule, which allowed parties PR representation if they won at least three FPTP seats. Only their PR votes will determine who gets in via the PR seats now.

Now for the major parties(as they put up their candidates for Chancellor, these may be changed slightly):

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(in Bavaria) (CDU/CSU) led federally by Frederich Merz(CDU)(CSU led by Markus Söder): Centre-right, Christian Democratic, Pro-Europe

Social Democratic Party(SPD) led by Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbell with Olaf Scholz as current Chancellor: Centre-left, Pro-Europe, Social Democratic

Alliance 90/The Greens led by Ricarda Land and Omid Nouripour with Robert Habeck as presumptive Chancellor Candidate: Centre-left, Green Policy, Social Liberal

Free Democratic Party(FDP) led by Christian Lindner: Centre-right, Liberal, Classical Liberal

Alternative for Germany(AfD) led by Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel: Right to Far Right, Right Populist, Eurosceptic

Die Linke(The Left) led by Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan: Left Wing, Left Populist, Democratic Socialist

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance-Reason and Justice(BSW) ld by Sahra Wagenknecht and Amira Mohamed Ali: Left to Far Left, Anti-Capitalist, Eurosceptic, Left Nationalist, Cultural Conservative

Something else to keep in mind that I said in the other German Politics Thread, you may be seeing a liot of nicknames bandied about concerning how government will form. Here, for the uninitiated, is a primer:

Grand Coalition AKA GroKo: Red-Black or CDU/CSU-SPD

Kiwi Coalition: Black Green(CDU/CSU-Greens), so-called because Kiwis or green and black inside

Kenya Coalition: Black-Red-Green(CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens) after the Kenyan flag

Deutschland Coalition: Black-Red-Yellow(CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP) after the German flag

Rosy Apple Hard Boiled Sweet Coalition(Coined by Huskar in 2021): Red-Red-Green(SPD-Die Linke-Greens) named after the eponymous candy, only applicable in Eastern states as Die Linke is also cordoned in the West

Traffic Light Coalition(Current federal government): Red-Yellow-Green(SPD-FDP-Greens) after an average traffic light

Jamaica Coalition: Black-Green-Yellow(CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP) after the Jamaican flag

Bürgerliche or Civil Coalition: Black-Yellow(CDU/CSU-FDP) after the respective party alignments

Social-Liberal Coalition: Red-Yellow(SPD-FDP) after the respective party alignments

Zimbabwe Coalition or German Vivaldi Coalition: Black-Red-Yellow-Green(CDU/CSU-SPD.FDP-Greens) currently only theoretical, named for the Zimbabwean flag colours or Vivaldi's four seasons

Blackberry Coalition: Black-Purple-Red(CDU/CSU-BSW-SPD) named for the different colours of blackberries and raspberries

Paprika Coalition: Red-Green-Orange(SPD-Greens-Pirates) named for paprika colours, has only existed on a municipal level in NRW(Nordrhein-Westfalen)

Bahamas Coalition: Black-Blue-Yellow(CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP): Named for Bahamain flag, only theoretical due to continue enforcement of the Brandmauer(firewall)

So,, who do you stand by, NSG? What coalition will come out? I'm standing by the Greens myself, but I'll take the GroKo. Anything to keep the Brandmauer strong and AfD out.

[Floofybit]

annihilating Die Linke

These elections are so entertaining

[ARIsyan-]

AfD-BSW coalition when?

But in all seriousness I hope that the BSW can take away enough votes from the AfD to stop their rise.

[Pasong Tirad]

RIP Die Linke

[Liberal Malaysia]

I base my opinion on, I'm ashamed to say, a Wikipedia article, so I might be misinformed. Take the following with a pinch of salt.

I don't think I'll be supporting the AfD. They've flip-flopped very recently on Israel and China and they're still pro-Russia, proving that they can't be trusted. They've also dismissed the Holocaust as "Allied propaganda". Their anti-Islam agenda alone simply isn't enough to win me over. They may be right-wing, but they're the wrong kind of right-wing. Not that I support any of the other parties either. Germany is teetering right on the abyss. I strongly disagree with their authoritarian culture of censorship and arresting people for doing Nazi salutes or denying the Holocaust.

I guess I support None of the Above this time around?

[Ariddia]

I can't say I'm enthused by any of the major parties. By default, if I were German, my constituency vote might go to the Greens. My party list vote would definitely go to the Tierschutzpartei.

[Philjia]

I can't see this election resulting in anything other than an unhappy but unavoidable CDU-SDP-Green coalition.

[Slembana]

This is pretty terrifying as AfD will win big. They’re basically neo-Nazis.

[Phoeniae]

(why to continuously change the page, if it involves same country so let the same old thread discussion, that you can refresh. sample given, older posts -mine included, do not get read by people this way. also I do not care daily chronicles, and wish to read older thoughts)

in summary, the reason I do not give too much credit to the fearmonger hypothesis of christian democrat and autocracy parties coalition pact is that, at first, medias told us such for decades and still has not happened -in federal germany, specifically.

secondly, angie retired lately and some more years must pass before degradation of german conservatives to modern so called center-right. if it was not thanks to her merit -and perhaps schauble also, merit, I agree germany would had leaned autocracy same way as italy, france do.

the process of corruption inside traditional parties is plausibly to necessitate wider window, at least needs further legislature or two for sap we that witnessed in italy, hungary, france, america by various degree. mass medias often stir chaos and futile debates with any accuracy.

personally I have not watched attentively enough, still I appreciated baerbock and I hope her to be chancellor, if possible. my worry is not a political agreement to oust her. what I fear is the eventuality that foes, notably interests aligned with kremlin, try assassination or injury.

the importance of german attitude in case of invasion of eastern europe, either hybrid or traditional occupation is too much notable to let these past worries of my own that I cited, to fall.

consider it also, that both 'strict' and 'appeasement' proposal would be as well represented in a 'second wide coalition' government however.

the same reason which paints baerbock as bright promise (to say, her similarity with merkel) as pillar of conservative democracy in european union hereafter, may label her a prey of assaults, I mean both political and physical, of putin's wan to be 'collaborationists' and ultas fringes.

[Turenia]

I would back the CDU.

[Port Carverton]

Where is the National Capitalist German Owners' Party?

[Shrillland]

I can't see this election resulting in anything other than an unhappy but unavoidable CDU-SDP-Green coalition.

A Kenya isn't really needed, the current projections have a classic GroKo in the 330-380 range, more than enough to carry on without the Greens.

[Phoeniae]

I can't see this election resulting in anything other than an unhappy but unavoidable CDU-SDP-Green coalition.

A Kenya isn't really needed, the current projections have a classic GroKo in the 330-380 range, more than enough to carry on without the Greens.

but phlijia_ could have rightfully intended it to be more logical, further than the peas count of necessary seats. it shall surely be ecologists together with christian and social democrats. politically, it would not bring any sense to oust ecologists, not in case of helm handed by sholtz.

the political reason alone, which I could though at, to describe an oust of ecologists from the 'wide coalition' may be whenever sholtz gets fired in favor of more "tankie" winged character (halfway closer to schroeder, to say).

(consideration of mine came as way to tell how one should not put algebrical ballot count as forward element in judgement, at least not for my tenet. even if I am not german, and inside the possible outcome of coalition that we debate, unless someone thriumphs or falls more dearly).