The Voting of the Green(An Irish Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

While ther US may have sucked all the air out of electoral thrills, there is another big election coming up this month. On Friday, November 8, Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris decided, instead of taking his chances with the upcoming Budget vote, to call a snap election for Friday, November 29. Sinn Fein, which had spent much of this current Dail in the polls, saw their lead collapse through 2023-24 as the rank and file in the party have a more conservative outlook on immigration(one of the big issues this time around)compared to the leadership in both Dublin and Belfast, and now current projections have Fine Gael and Fianna Fail jockeying for the top spot. Harris's striking while the iron is hot.

Here's how it'll go down, the Dail will be electing 174 TDs in 43 multi-member constituencies via STV. Each constituency has 3-5 seats, and sometimes days can pass before all of them are filled.

Now to meet the various parties(and yes, the Far Right is rising here too, though not to the same levels as their next door neighbour or indeed much of the rest of the West:

Fine Gael led by Current Taoiseach Simon Harris: Centre-right, Liberal Conservative, Christian Democratic

Fianna Fail led by Michael Martin: Centre to Centre-right, Conservative, Christian Democratic(There are differences between FG ad FF, but the division goes back to the Civil War)

Sinn Fein led by Mary Lou McDonald: Centre-left to Left, Democratic Socialist, Nationalist, Left Nationalist

Social Democrats led by Holly Cairns: Centre-left, Social Democratic, Pro-Europe

Aontú(Unity) led by Peadar Tóibín: Syncretic, Social Conservative, Eurosceptic

Green Party led by Roderic O'Gorman: Centre-left, Green Policy, Pro-Europe

Labour led by Ivana Bacik: Centre-left, Social Democratic, Pro-Europe

Independent Ireland(II) led by Michael Collins: Right Wing, Conservative

People Before Profit-Solidarity(PBP-S) with collective leadership: Left to Far Left, Socialist, Trotskyite

I'll personally go with Sinn Fein, I understand the people's impatience, but immigration isn't a bogeyman... How about you, NSG?

[Floofybit]

Those are some unfortunate names

[Pasong Tirad]

Absolutely wild to see Sinn Fein absolutely throw out all of the support they've enjoyed since 2020.

[Durius]

Those are some unfortunate names

They are actually quite epic.

[Roylaii]

Would be very interesting to see Sinn Féin in power on both sides of the border. Also I notice the absence of Labour in the poll, is there a particular reason?

[The Archregimancy]

Independent Ireland (II) led by Michael Collins

I had to laugh. It's a historically aware ironic laugh, but still a laugh.

Poor man; that's a lot to live up to name-wise.

[Shrillland]

Would be very interesting to see Sinn Féin in power on both sides of the border. Also I notice the absence of Labour in the poll, is there a particular reason?

A very important one. I was half asleep when I wrote the OP and overlooked them. They're up now though.

[Liberal Malaysia]

I support Aontu I think? Some of the more right-wing parties have a bit of a history, and I don't mean it in a good way.

[Ifreann]

Would be very interesting to see Sinn Féin in power on both sides of the border. Also I notice the absence of Labour in the poll, is there a particular reason?

A very important one. I was half asleep when I wrote the OP and overlooked them. They're up now though.

Yes, about that. Simon Harris is the Taoiseach. Micheál Martin is the Tánaiste.

[Shrillland]

A very important one. I was half asleep when I wrote the OP and overlooked them. They're up now though.

Yes, about that. Simon Harris is the Taoiseach. Micheál Martin is the Tánaiste.

Serves me right for breaking my personal rules of never posting when tired. fixed now.

[Ifreann]

Yes, about that. Simon Harris is the Taoiseach. Micheál Martin is the Tánaiste.

Serves me right for breaking my personal rules of never posting when tired. fixed now.

Easy mistake to make, FF and FG have been trading the offices back and forth.

[Southglory]

I expect the Irish not to be too lax on immigration in the future.

[Bienenhalde]

I am conflicted. I like Fine Gael's foreign and defense policy, but when it comes to domestic issues I think Aontu is far better.

[Ariddia]

As Ireland uses the single transferable vote electoral system, my first preference would go to the Party for Animal Welfare. Assuming I were in Limerick or Meath East, where they're standing.

My second preference would probably go to the Social Democrats if I could, although as they're standing in neither or those two constituencies, that would be tricky. The SocDems seem to focus on exactly what social democrats should focus on: people's access to healthcare, education and housing, rather than silly "culture war" issues.

My third would go to Labour. My fourth possibly to the Greens, as the environmental crisis is such a major issue and the party seems to have progressive views on healthcare, public services and assisted dying. Although if the Irish Greens support daft, regressive identity politics like the Scottish Greens and the English Greens, they probably wouldn't get my vote.

And that would be all. I'd only give three or four preferences. Rabharta turns me off with its talks of "intersactional anticolonialism"; I wouldn't give my vote to a right-wing party; and no way would I ever vote for Sinn Féin, who have never accepted that the IRA's terrorist violence was wrong.

[The Huskar Social Union]

As a Northerner i genuinely dont know who i would vote for down south in the Republic, the Social Democrats would more than likely get a vote from me, not sure about who else though.

[Major-Tom]

How much of Fine Gael's success in the polls is attributable to the fact that their new leader is objectively hot?

[Alvosa]

As a Dubliner I’m deciding between Fiana fail, the social democrats or II.

EDIT: I can’t vote yet though.

[Nensha]

I am not an Irish citizen but I'm ethnically Irish and I like Sinn Fein but I don't know much about Irish politics.

[Saor Alba]

I think FF and FG are still the better options that Ireland has, especially over the political wing of the Provisional IRA terrorist organisation, but I think Irish politics is only rivalled by the UK and the USA in how grim things are at the moment. If I had to live in Ireland I would probably choose to live in Tipperary North, which I have visited many times, and there I would just vote for the FF and FG candidates in order.

[Sel Appa]

Unionist

[Qaumodeen]

I think FF and FG are still the better options that Ireland has, especially over the political wing of the Provisional IRA terrorist organisation, but I think Irish politics is only rivalled by the UK and the USA in how grim things are at the moment. If I had to live in Ireland I would probably choose to live in Tipperary North, which I have visited many times, and there I would just vote for the FF and FG candidates in order.

Provisional IRA killed far less civilians than the British occupation forces during the Troubles. Whose really the terrorist?

[Atrito]

I think FF and FG are still the better options that Ireland has, especially over the political wing of the Provisional IRA terrorist organisation, but I think Irish politics is only rivalled by the UK and the USA in how grim things are at the moment. If I had to live in Ireland I would probably choose to live in Tipperary North, which I have visited many times, and there I would just vote for the FF and FG candidates in order.

Provisional IRA killed far less civilians than the British occupation forces during the Troubles. Whose really the terrorist?

perhaps more a question for the UK politics thread than this Irish Election thread. also, not true https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles#Responsibility

[Ariddia]

I think FF and FG are still the better options that Ireland has, especially over the political wing of the Provisional IRA terrorist organisation, but I think Irish politics is only rivalled by the UK and the USA in how grim things are at the moment. If I had to live in Ireland I would probably choose to live in Tipperary North, which I have visited many times, and there I would just vote for the FF and FG candidates in order.

Provisional IRA killed far less civilians than the British occupation forces during the Troubles. Whose really the terrorist?

The PIRA killed four times more unarmed, innocent civilians than the British armed forces did. So your question clearly answers itself.

Also, a friendly reminder that the PIRA's violence was unnecessary and unjustifiable. While John Hume, an Irish Nationalist from (London)Derry, was organising a peaceful campaign for Catholics' rights and for power-sharing, those friendly chaps in the Provisional IRA decided to try by all means to derail him and stop him. They firebombed his house while his children were inside; they kidnapped his daughter to intimidate him into ending his campaign; and ultimately they attempted to assassinate him. They were afraid he would succeed by peaceful means and that their own campaign of hate, fear, division and exclusion would be exposed for the hollow nastiness that it always was.

History ultimately vindicated Hume and his peaceful, democratic dream of power-sharing and inclusivity. Not the dead-end murderous terrorists of Sinn Féin.

[Polyester Football]

If the latest opinion polls are to be believed, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin should poll slightly less than in 2020, while Fine Gael should poll more or less as they did then, and it wouldn't be a surprise if all three ended up with more or less the same seat numbers as each other (about 38 or so).

The Green vote could be half or even less than it polled in 2020, and it is at risk of losing more than half its seats.

Labour is running at more or less the same as its 2020 performance, but it's hard to say whether they'll hold their seat numbers because a couple of their high-profile winners in 2020 are not running for election this time. On the other hand, they are being openly courted in the campaign by the bigger parties as potential coalition partners, which means they could do well on transfers.

The Social Democrats look like they could nearly double their vote tally compared with 2020, but two of their highest profile seat winners have retired this time, so they might not do as well in terms of seats as they will in terms of votes.

Likewise, Aontú should have a significant increase in their vote, but because they're coming from a low base they may not win any more than the 1 seat they currently have.

PBP-Solidarity are expected to get more or less the same votes as last time, but they've also had a high-profile retirement and could end up losing a seat or two.

Independent Ireland are expected to do well. You can't really compare them to last time because they didn't compete under the II name. They currently have three seats. They won't come back with less, and they are expected to poll around 5% - which in a PR system could net them anything between 1 and 5 more seats.

The various independent and "other" candidates look like polling more or less what they did last time, but their seat number might fall a little because some of them are now running under the II banner.


If the polls are to be believed, the current FF-FG-GP coalition will not have enough seats to form another majority coalition government. In fact, because the three biggest parties won't co-operate, we'll probably end up with either a four-party coalition or else a three-party minority government with confidence and supply support from a few independents.

If the polls are to be believed, of course.

[Qaumodeen]

Provisional IRA killed far less civilians than the British occupation forces during the Troubles. Whose really the terrorist?

The PIRA killed four times more unarmed, innocent civilians than the British armed forces did. So your question clearly answers itself.

False.

Also, a friendly reminder that the PIRA's violence was unnecessary and unjustifiable. While John Hume, an Irish Nationalist from (London)Derry, was organising a peaceful campaign for Catholics' rights and for power-sharing, those friendly chaps in the Provisional IRA decided to try by all means to derail him and stop him. They firebombed his house while his children were inside; they kidnapped his daughter to intimidate him into ending his campaign; and ultimately they attempted to assassinate him. They were afraid he would succeed by peaceful means and that their own campaign of hate, fear, division and exclusion would be exposed for the hollow nastiness that it always was.

History ultimately vindicated Hume and his peaceful, democratic dream of power-sharing and inclusivity. Not the dead-end murderous terrorists of Sinn Féin.

Friendly reminder that the PIRA initiated the peace process along with other nationalist factions and conducted a ceasfire, while Unionists like the UVF and UDA refused any peace settlement and continued their murderous campaign.

PIRA violence against the British government was justifiable considering the violence and discrimination British occupation forces partook in against Catholics in Northern Ireland in the 1960s.

Interesting that for a communist you are consistently on the side of occupiers.